Gold, silver feeling the pressure from hawkish central banks

Gold and silver prices are modestly lower in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Hawkish monetary policies from the U.S. Federal Reserve and other major central banks of the world have cast a pall over the stock and financial markets at present, but have boosted U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar index—both of which are competing assets with the safe-haven metals. October gold was last down $4.70 at $1,662.90 and December silver was down $0.148 at $19.205.

Risk aversion remains elevated among traders and investors early this week. Marketplace focus is on the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting that begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The FOMC is expected to remain aggressively hawkish and raise the key U.S. Fed funds rate by 0.75% in the Fed’s effort to tamp down problematic price inflation. Sweden’s central bank today raised its key interest rate by a full 1.0%. The Bank of England also holds its monetary policy meeting Thursday and is also expected to raise interest rates.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly lower and Asian shares mostly higher. U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday.

Russia's new gold exchange could challenge LBMA and reveal gold's 'fair' price – Matthew Piepenburg

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $82.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher in midday U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.575% and climbing.

Technically, October gold futures prices are hovering near last week’s nearly 2.5-year low. The gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,678.00 and then at $1,686.30. First support is seen at the September low of $1,651.90 and then at $1,635.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

December silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $21.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $18.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $19.69 and then at $20.00. Next support is seen at $19.00 and then at last week’s low of $18.77. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 70 points at 350.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 378.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 355.80 cents and then at 360.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of the September low of 354.40 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold remains above $1680 a key technical level as traders await the FOMC meeting

Gold remains relatively muted as market participants await the start of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting tomorrow. As of 5 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active December contract is currently trading at $1685 with a net gain of $1.50 today. The December contract opened at $1685.40, traded to a low of $1667.60 and a high of $1688.80

This is in contrast to the other precious metals, with palladium futures gaining 5.55%, platinum futures gaining 2.28%, and silver gaining 1.03%. All of the precious metals had fractional gains based on dollar weakness. The dollar index is currently fixed at 109.34 after factoring in a decline of 0.15%.

Market participants are anticipating the Federal Reserve to announce the latest interest rate hike after this week’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Beginning in March of this year the Federal Reserve raised the “federal funds rate” for the first time since 2018 by 25 basis points. They continued to raise rates at the May, June, and July FOMC meetings. The net result was the Fed moved rates from near zero to its current level of 225 – 250 basis points. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is an 82% probability that the Fed will raise rates by 75 basis points on Wednesday. This would be the third interest rate hike of 75 basis points this year.

The Federal Reserve has been laser-focused on bringing inflation down to an acceptable level of approximately 2%. However, inflation remains exceedingly hot, and persistent. The CPI index hit a 41-year high in June coming in at 9.5%. The most recent data revealed that inflation remains extremely elevated coming in at 8.3% in August.

The majority of the decline in inflation is directly attributable to lower energy costs, with the gasoline index falling 7.7% in July. However, inflation for other essentials continues to be elevated. Prices for food at home rose 13.5% for the year ending in August.

According to the BLS, “Over that period, prices for food at home increased 13.5 percent, the largest 12-month percentage increase since the period ending March 1979. Food prices away from home increased 8.0 percent for the year ended August 2022, the largest over-the-year percentage increase since an 8.4-percent increase in October 1981.”

12-month cpi table

The graph above shows the 12-month percentage change in four categories in the Consumer Price Index. It clearly illustrates that the Federal Reserve is far from reaching its inflation target of 2% and has had only a minimal effect in reducing inflation even though it raised rates for the last four consecutive FOMC meetings, and will almost certainly enact another large rate hike of at least 75 basis points.

Even with another rate hike, it seems unlikely that the Federal Reserve will bring inflation close to its target level. The consensus among economists and analysts is that the Federal Reserve will raise rates to between 3 ½% to 4% by the end of the year. However, it must be noted that historically the Fed has had to raise rates to equal the level of inflation to effectively reduce inflation. It also must be noted that even the most aggressive rate hikes in the past by the Federal Reserve were accomplished over multiple years.

For more information on our service, simply use this link

Wishing you as always, good trading,
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

The 'biggest crash in history' is here – should you protect yourself with gold, silver, and livestock? – Robert Kiyosaki

The S&P 500 has lost 18 percent of its value over the year, and it is only going to get worse, according to Robert Kiyosaki, best-selling author of the Rich Dad, Poor Dad series. Kiyosaki suggested that investors protect their portfolios with "hard assets" like gold, silver, and livestock, as the "biggest crash in history" unfolds.

Kiyosaki spoke with Michelle Makori, Editor-in-Chief and Lead Anchor at Kitco News.

"Anything that can be printed, like a stock certificate, a bond, or a dollar, I don't want it," he stated. "I'm a hardcore gold, silver, oil, and food buff… I'm a hardcore hard assets person."

He suggested that these assets are "insurance" rather than an investment.

"My answer is always to buy more gold and silver," said Kiyosaki. "It's not an investment… I buy gold and silver for one reason, because if push comes to shove, I can spend it anywhere in the world."

Kiyosaki's latest book is The Capitalist Manifesto.
 

Food Shortages

In June, Kiyosaki tweeted that canned tuna is the "best investment," as food shortages become more likely. Analysts have suggested that Europe could struggle with food supplies this winter, and Copa-Cogeca, the EU's farmer union, warned of food shortages due to higher energy costs.

Kiyosaki has previously stated that such shortages could reach the United States. He told Makori that he invests in livestock as a hedge against this possibility.

"I invest in Wagyu cattle," said Kiyosaki. "People talk about farmland and all that stuff, but I think cattle are great. You can always eat the thing."
 

Creeping Marxism

Kiyosaki said that Biden's decision to shut down the Keystone XL oil pipeline, under the guise of environmentalism, was a part of a ploy to weaken the middle class, and to bring about Marxism in America.

"Biden is a communist," he said. "When he took the Keystone XL pipeline off, he destroyed the middle class, because civilization runs on fuel and food… He is doing exactly what Marx said to do."

Kiyosaki explained that "socialists come under the guise of being environmentalists," increasing government control over the economy in order to bring about socialism. He also said that Marxists had infiltrated the U.S. education system.

"In 1930, the [Marxists] took over the Columbia University teachers' college," he explained. "Our country is being taught communism via the academic school teachers."

However, Kiyosaki maintained that he would still fight for the freedoms enshrined in the U.S. Constitution.

"I still fight for our freedom," he said. "You want to be a communist? It's your freedom. You want to be a Buddhist? I fight for that. You want to be Christian? I fight for that. I fight for freedom."

To find out Kiyosaki's price target for gold, watch the video above

By Cornelius Christian

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold prices holding support above $1,675 as UofM inflation expectations fall to one-year low

The gold market is holding critical support at around $1,675 an ounce as consumer sentiment continues to improve and inflation expectations remain anchored.

Friday, the University of Michigan said a preliminary estimate of its consumer sentiment survey edged up to 59.5 from August's reading of 58.2. The data was relatively in line with expectations.

The gold market, seeing some modest relief in initial reaction to the latest sentiment data. December gold futures pushed into neutral territory, trading near session highs at $1,678.10 an ounce.

Although sentiment is relatively stable, the report noted there is still a high level of uncertainty among consumers.

"After the marked improvement in sentiment in August, consumers showed signs of uncertainty over the trajectory of the economy," said Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys at the UofM.

A positive for the gold market, the survey highlighted falling inflation expectations. The report said that consumers see inflation rising 4.6% by next year, down from the previous projection of 4.8%.

The report said that this is the lowest inflation forecast in a year.

Five-year inflation expectations dropped to 2.9%, down from August's reading of 3.1%.

"However, it is unclear if these improvements will persist, as consumers continued to exhibit substantial uncertainty over the future trajectory of prices," said Hsu.

Economists have noted that if inflation expectations remain anchored, the Federal Reserve could slow the pace of its aggressive monetary policy stance. However, many economists have noted that it will take more than just one or two sentiment surveys to slow the current trend.

"The dip there will offer some comfort to the Fed as it looks to combat rising prices. That emphasizes the credibiliity of the Fed (along with falling gas prices) and gives them some breathing room," said Adam Button, chief currency strategist at Forexlive.com

Markets all but expect the Federal Reserve to raise the Fed Funds rate by 75 basis points next week. The CME FedWatch Tool puts the chance of a full 1% move at only 16%.

However, markets still see a much higher terminal rate near 5%, which some analysts said could keep a lid on gold prices.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold price pounded to 2-plus-year low by economic worries, bearish charts

Gold prices are sharply down and hit a nearly 2.5-year low in midday U.S. trading Thursday. Silver prices are also solidly lower. The precious metals are being hit by global economic worries that threaten to dent commercial and consumer demand for raw commodities, including the metals. October gold was last down $36.00 at $1,662.20 and December silver was down $0.324 at $19.245.

The marketplace was a bit calmer overnight and early this morning, but it appears recent hawkish monetary policy comments from central bank officials and noted market analysts have combined with hot inflation readings to quickly sap what little risk appetite had been seen earlier today. And remember, the stock and financial markets are at the time of year (September and October) where the going can get very tough. Gold and silver bulls remain frustrated that the risk aversion in the marketplace is not translating into more safe-haven demand for the two metals.

Traders are focusing on next week’s FOMC meeting, which is expected to see the Fed raise the key U.S. Fed funds rate by 0.75% in its effort to tamp down problematic price inflation. Precious metals traders are reckoning the tighter monetary policies of most of the major central banks of the world will further slow global economic growth that would in turn reduce consumer and commercial demand for metals.

Inflation triggered worst market sell-off since 2020, analyst predicts even more pain – John Feneck

Global stock markets were mostly slightly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly lower and trading around $85.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 3.44%.

Technically, October gold futures prices hit a nearly 2.5-year low today. The gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,675.00 and then at $1,686.30. First support is seen at $1,650.00 and then at $1,635.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $21.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $18.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $19.625 and then at $20.00. Next support is seen at $19.00 and then at this week’s low of $18.775. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 380 points at 348.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 378.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 355.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 369.25 cents. First support is seen at the September low of 336.10 cents and then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold gains, silver surges as USDX slumps

Gold is moderately higher and silver sharply up in midday U.S. trading Monday. The precious metals are supported by a depreciating U.S. dollar on the foreign exchange market. The U.S. dollar index is sharply lower today and hit a two-week low after last week posting a 20-year high. A dip in U.S. Treasury yields to start the trading week is also a positive for the precious metals markets. October gold was last up $14.00 at $1,733.00 and December silver was up $1.088 at $19.865.

 

U.S. stock indexes higher so far today. Stock and financial markets are almost half-way through the month of September with no major marketplace anxiety. The major U.S. stock indexes have seen short-term price downtrends stall out. History shows September and October can be rocky months for the stock and financial markets.

 

Traders and investors are awaiting the latest U.S. inflation report on Tuesday. The August consumer price index is seen coming in up 8.0%, year-on-year, compared to the July report showing an 8.5% rise. There are some signs in the economy that inflation in the U.S. is cooling off a bit.

 

Weak inflation will be key to a sustainable gold rally above $1,750

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The other key outside market today sees Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $87.75 a barrel. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.298%.

 

Technically,ctober gold futures bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart is now in jeopardy. There is also the potential for a big and bullish double-bottom reversal pattern forming on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,769.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at $1,740.00 and then at $1,750.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,712.70 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

 

December silver futures prices hit a three-week high today. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, the bulls have momentum on their side to suggest a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $21.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $18.50. First resistance is seen at $20.00 and then at $20.50. Next support is seen at $19.50 and then at $19.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

December N.Y. copper closed up 235 points at 359.10 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 378.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 362.85 cents and then at 365.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 353.20 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

 

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Weak inflation will be key to a sustainable gold rally above $1,750

Some optimism is creeping back into the gold market as prices end the week in neutral territory, bouncing off support at $1,700 an ounce.

However, analysts are warning investors that economic data next week needs to be significantly weaker than expected if that optimism blossoms in a new breakout on the upside.

The main focus for gold investors next week will be two inflation data points: the U.S. Consumer Price Index on Tuesday and the preliminary inflation expectations from the University of Michigan. Also on tap next week is August U.S. retail sales, which will be an essential gauge to determine how consumers are holding up as the Federal Reserve aggressively raises interest rates.

"Significantly weaker economic data next week will continue to pressure the U.S. dollar, which is positive for gold," said Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging with Walsh Trading.

Ed Moya, senior U.S. market analyst at OANDA, said that weak inflation could give gold a boost next week as it could help investors and markets start to define how high the Federal Reserve will take interest rates.

"If inflation drops, then there is a chance we might not see interest rates go much above 4.00%," he said. "If that happens, then maybe the U.S. dollar has peaked, providing some relief for gold."

However, Moya also said that a slight miss in the data might not be enough to shift fairly solid expectations for the Federal Reserve's next monetary policy decision later this month. Markets see a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 75 basis points.

 

Analysts have said that if those expectations don't come down, gold's new-found optimism could vanish fairly quickly.

"If the Fed raises interest rates by only 50 basis points, this could give gold some momentum," said Christopher Vecchio, senior market analyst at DailyFX.com.

Lusk said that gold has the potential to push to $1,760 an ounce next week; however, he added that "bull markets need to be fed."

"Gold rallies are being sold and that won't change until we have a better understanding of where interest rates are going," he said.

Bullish sentiment points to a limited short squeeze for gold prices, not a new breakout

Inflation expectations

According to consensus estimates, economists see headline CPI falling 0.1% in August as gasoline and energy prices dropped last month. At the same time, core inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, is expected to rise 0.2%.

"If we're right and core CPI increases by a more muted 0.2% m/m, then a late switch to a 50bp hike would still be possible," said Paul Ashworth, chief U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note Friday.

However, not everyone is convinced that disappointing inflation data will move the needle on interest rate hikes.

Daniel Ghali, senior commodity strategist at TD Securities, said that this past week at the Cato Institute's Annual Monetary Policy Conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

"Tightness in the labor market is probably going to keep interest rates elevated for a longer period of time," he said. "Wage growth is at a level we haven't seen since the 1980 and this could lead to a deanchoring of inflation expectations and that is what the Fed fears."
 

Ghali said that although gold prices could go up next week, he expects its current downtrend to remain in place.

"A weak CPI data could create a short squeeze, but we don't see that as sustainable," he said.

He added that while the precious metal may have priced in the Fed's aggressive rate hike, it hasn't priced in the duration of higher interest rates.

"While gold prices may now have accurately captured the expected level of interest rates, they are not reflecting the implications of a sustained period of restrictive policy. In this context, money managers continue to sell their length, while ETF holdings of gold remain in a sustained downtrend," he said.

Next week's data

Tuesday: U.S. CPI

Wednesday: U.S. PPI

Thursday: Retail Sales, Empire State Survey, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Survey, unemployment claims

Friday: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold holding fast against U.S. dollar, bond yields

It may be a little premature to be talking about a breakout in gold; however, according to several market analysts, the precious metal is ending the week on a solid note.

Although it's ending Friday in relatively neutral territory, analysts see a small victory in what the market didn't do: break down to new lows. Let's start with the U.S. dollar, which rose to a 20-year high against a basket of global currencies.

The greenback saw major breakouts against the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan; at the same time, the pound fell to a 35-year low against the U.S. dollar and the euro continues to trade below parity with the greenback, falling to a fresh 20-year low.

Currencies around the world are falling to the juggernaut that has become the U.S. dollar, all global currencies except gold. The precious metal has managed to hold fast support at $1,700 an ounce.

Gold also as managed to withstand rising bond yields. U.S. 10-year yields pushed to 3.5% this week, its highest level in two months. Heading into the weekend, markets see a 90% chance the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by 75 basis points.

Market expectations solidified after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the central bank will maintain its aggressive monetary policy stance “until the job is done."

Gold prices fell to session lows following Powell's hawkish comments, but ultimately support held.

Some analysts have said that gold has been able to withstand the rising bond yields and the U.S. dollar's momentum as investors are once again starting to see it as an important safe-haven asset as well as an inflation hedge.

In dismal headlines this week, Michael Gayed, portfolio manager and Publisher of the Lead-Lag Report, told Kitco News that the U.S. could be facing a sovereign debt crisis as Treasury yields continue to rise.

It's not just in the U.S. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde raised the specter of recession after the ECB raised interest rates by a historic 75 basis points.

Perth Mint outpaces U.S. Mint in gold sales last Month

During the press conference, she said that a recession wasn't the ECB's base case scenario, but as part of its bearish scenario, they see the eurozone economy contracting by 0.9% in 2023.

Although some investors are starting to see value in gold, there is still a long way to go to undo the damage done this summer. Bears are still in control of the market as they liquidate their bullish gold bets.

There is still a long road before gold shines bright again, but at least it is holding fast for now.

Have a great weekend

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold backs down as Powell reiterates hawkish Federal Reserve

Gold prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Thursday, pressured by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that again leaned hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. Powell’s comments boosted the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields, both of which had been weaker ahead of his speech. The yellow metal had seen higher prices overnight, but lost those gains to trade near steady when upbeat U.S. jobless claims data were released, and then sold off when Powell made his remarks. October gold was last down $10.80 at $1,707.40 and December silver was up $0.065 at $18.325.

Powell’s speech today was the last scheduled ahead of the FOMC meeting on Sept. 20-21, at which time the Fed is expected to raise the Fed Funds rate by 75 basis points. The Fed’s beige book, out Wednesday afternoon, pointed out weaker U.S. economic growth. Meantime, the European Central Bank met today and raised its main interest rate by 75 basis points, as expected.

U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday, and recouped early losses that occurred shortly after Powell’s hawkish monetary policy comments in a discussion with the Cato Institute. Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight, following the strong gains in the U.S. stock market on Wednesday.

Brace for a possible U.S. debt crisis if inflation stays elevated, democracy itself is at risk – Michael Gayed

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher on a corrective rebound and trading around $83.50 a barrel after hitting an eight-month low overnight. The U.S. dollar index is firmer after hitting a 20-year high Wednesday. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.292%.

Technically, October gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,729.30 and then at $1,740.00. First support is seen at $1,700.00 and then at $1,686.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $18.665 and then at $19.00. Next support is seen at $18.00 and then at this week’s low of $17.74. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 800 points at 351.10 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 378.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 355.00 cents and then at 360.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 344.20 cents and then at this week’s low of 336.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David