Gold and silver start the European session mixed

Gold and silver are trading mixed this morning. The yellow metal suffered from more losses on Tuesday after hitting a low of $1750.78/oz and this morning the price is around $9 higher. Silver on the other hand trades at $25.81/oz 0.28% higher overnight after also dropping in yesterday's session. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper has moved to $4.25/lb 0.14% higher and spot WTI is trading just under flat at $73.40/bbl.

Indices in the Asia Pac area were slightly mixed. The ASX (0.16%) and Shanghai Composite (0.30%) closed higher while the Nikkei 225 dropped -0.07%. Futures are pointing towards a negative open in Europe.

In the FX markets, the antipodeans were the best performers overnight as AUD/USD (0.14%) and NZD/USD (0.15%) both traded higher. The dollar index lost 0.08% in value. In crypto markets, BTC/USD has dropped -2.48% after a decent session on Tuesday.

Looking at the news from overnight, Japanese industrial production (MoM) (May) hit -5.9% vs the analyst expectations of -2.4%.

 

ECB's Villeroy thinks inflation should go up a bit this year then down again in 2022, 2023.

U.K. prelim Q1 GDP printed at -1.6% vs expectations of -1.5% q/q.

China official PMIs for June. Manufacturing 50.9 (vs. expected 50.8), Services 53.5 (expected 52.7).

Fed's Waller says the U.S. jobs market has not quite come back to pre-COVID. Waller added he has a very optimistic outlook for the economy and he is not ruling out a 2022 rate hike.

There are newspaper reports that double-vaccinated people in the U.K. will not have to isolate if they come into contact with someone who has COVID-19.

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include German employment numbers, EU CPI, U.S. ADP jobs numbers, Canadian GDP, U.S. pending home sales and weekly oil DoE's. We could also hear from Fed's Barkin, Bostic, BoE's Haldane and ECB's Panetta.

 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

 

David

Gold, silver price unleashed – Will this summer be as explosive as 2020's?

It's going to take gold until the end of the year to rally to $2,000 an ounce, said Phil Streible, chief market strategist of Blue Line Futures.

"I really believe [gold] could get going. $2,000 would capture some headlines on the upside. I think it has the right dynamics for it. You need the Fed to backpedal. You need growth to kind of stall," Streible told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.

However, it's unlikely that the rally will start this summer and mirror last summer's explosive price action, Streible said.

"You've got two different things. The 10-year [U.S. Treasury bond yield] hit its all-time low last August," he said. "We don't have the Treasury dynamic in there, so what happened then is different from now."

Additionally, investors from traditionally large gold markets, like India, need to shift their capital back into gold.
 

Indian crypto investments grew from an aggregate holding of $200 million last year to $40 billion this year, according to data from Chainalysis

A shift back into gold from cryptocurrencies in India would provide a huge boost to the price, Streible said.

For more information on key price levels to monitor, watch the video above. Follow David Lin on Twitter @davidlin_TV.

 

By David Lin

For Kitco News

 

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David

Basel III to take gold to record highs?

After an unexpected selloff last week, gold is busy building support. But the $1,800 level is proving to be a struggle.

 

Here's a look at Kitco's top three stories of the week:

1. The Yellen-Powell duo keeps the markets on their toes as they talk down the Federal Reserve's hawkish June monetary policy meeting.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell' comments

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's comments

2. Bitcoin drops below $30,000, briefly erasing all the year-to-date gains.

3. Many investors underestimate the impact of Basel III on the gold market, says Goldex CEO Sylvia Carrasco.

 

By Anna Golubova

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Gold and silver are trading higher ahead of the European open

Gold and silver are trading higher leading into the European session on the last trading day of the week. On Thursday gold had another tricky session hitting a high of $1788.1/oz before closing lower and finishing the session at $1775.22/oz. Silver on the other hand has had two days worth of gains and has made a good start so far this morning. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper has used 0.28% higher and spot WTI trades 0.10% in the black.

Looking at risk sentiment overnight the major bourses all moved higher. The Nikkei (0.66%), ASX (0.45%) and Shanghai Composite (1.19%) followed the positive lead from Wall St. Futures in Europe are also pointing towards a positive open.

In FX markets, the biggest mover overnight was once again NZD/USD which rose 0.31%. The dollar index is starting today's session 0.08% lower. In the crypto space, after a daily decent rally yesterday BTC/USD trades 1.62% in the red.

Looking at the major news from late yesterday and overnight, Biden and Co looked to have finally secured the infrastructure spending bill.

US Senate's McConnell says infrastructure framework an 'encouraging sign of progress'China's Bitmain has halted sales of cryptocurrency mining machines to ease selling pressure.

Fed says banks pass stress tests – to lift pandemic restrictions on share buybacks, dividends after June 30

Fed's Barkin says the current rise in inflation is clearly due to temporary factors. He added he doesn't think the U.S. is at max employment yet.

Germany's Altmaier said expects US, EU can agree on steel, aluminum tariffs before the end of the year

U.K. GfK Consumer Confidence (Jun) -9 vs exp -7 prev -9

GfK German Consumer Climate (Jul) -0.3 vs exp -4.0 prev -6.9

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Jun) 0.0% vs exp -0.1% prev -0.2%

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include EZ money supply, U.S. PCE data, Michigan Consumer Sentiment data and the weekly Baker Hughes oil rig count data.
 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Gold's shocking fall: Is the bull market over?

Gold shed nearly $100 in just 24 hours this week, with the precious metal dropping 5% on Thursday. The trigger was the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement.

A surprisingly hawkish stance led to some chaotic trading and gold dropped below the $1,800 an ounce.

Here is a look at Kitco's top three stories of the week:

1. Federal Reserve signals it could raise rates twice in 2023

2. Why is gold down $100 after Fed shakes up markets?

3. 'Big Short' investor Michael Burry warns of 'greatest speculative bubble of all time'
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

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David

Gold is in a bearish correction or trend 6/18/21

On a higher timeframe basis: I cautioned on 8/16/18 the break above $1,179.7-$1,183.7 warned of renewed strength. We have seen $905.5 of this. This is ON HOLD. We held major exhaustion at $2,071.6-93.2 with a $2,089.2 high and rolled over $412.8 into the macro bearish correction warned about. The decent trade below $1,879.3 projects this downward $24 minimum, $76 (+) maximum. We attained $111.4. I warned we will likely have to contend with possible exhaustion areas on the way down at $1,804.0-767.2 and $1,740.4-29.1—we held the upper of these with a $1,767.9 low and bounced $30 before rolling over to test it again. On a lower timeframe basis: The decent trade below $1,908.5 brought in $140.6 of pressure. The break below $1,897.6-6.5 (-1 tic per/hour) brought in $128.4 of the pressure warned about. The decent failure below $1,806.1 (-.5 of a tic per/hour) has brought in $38.2 of the pressure warned about below before holding the exhaustion at $1,772.6-67.2.

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Gold and silver move higher ahead of the European open

Gold and silver have moved higher leading into the European session despite more bearishness on Thursday. Gold is now trading at $1785/oz while silver has moved to $26.17/oz. One of the big stories from yesterday's session was the drop in palladium. The precious metal moved 11.26% lower. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper trades 0.35% higher and spot WTI has moved -0.31% in the red.

The risk sentiment overnight was mixed overnight. The Nikkei 225 closed -0.19% lower while the Shanghai Composite (0.15%) and ASX (0.13%) both moved higher. Futures markets in Europe seem to be pointing toward a negative cash open.

In FX markets, the dollar index has pushed 0.08% higher as it extends on recent gains. The biggest mover overnight is NZD/USD which lost -0.37% and now trades under the psychological 0.70 level.

In terms of news from the late U.S. and overnight, the Bank of Japan announced no change to the main monetary policy as expected. Pandemic relief program extended by six months.

China’s Sichuan province to fully shut down mining operations

Germany May PPI +1.5% vs +0.7% m/m expected. UK May retail sales -1.4% vs +1.5% m/m expected. Japan May 2021 headline CPI -0.1% y/y (vs. expected -0.2%).

Friday 18 June 2021 is "quadruple witching" day. This refers to the simultaneous expiry of four types of financial contracts. Single stock futures, stock index futures, stock index options and single stock options.

CME has raised Platinium futures initial margin by 15% for speculators and palladium by 14.8%.

There have been reports that Chinese apps could face subpoenas, or even bans, under a Biden executive order.

White House security advisor Sullivan says they are considering a call between U.S. President Biden and Chinese Premier Xi.

There are some media reports that the delayed U.K. lockdown reopening date could be brought forward by two weeks.

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include UK retail sales data, German PPI and comments from Fed's Kashkari.

 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Gold and silver trader higher leading in to the European session despite suffering heavy losses post FOMC

Gold is trading 0.41% higher after losing ground following the FOMC event last night. Silver is also positive and has moved 0.46% higher and trades above the $27/oz psychological level. In the rest of the commodities markets, copper is 1% higher while spot WTI trades 0.36% in the black.

After inheriting a negative handover from Wall Street, bourses in the Asia Pac area struggled. The Nikkei 225 (-0.90%), ASX (-0.40%) and Shanghai Composite (0.01%) all struggled.

In FX markets, the USD rallied on Thursday but heads into the EU open -0.08% lower. The biggest mover is once again NZD/USD which trades just over half a percent higher. Bitcoin is only marginally higher leading into the last trading day of the week.

The FOMC was more hawkish than some analysts had been expecting last night and this moved up expectations of tapering and rate hikes. The dot plot now sees a rate lift-off in 2023 (median) with 7 dots seeing a hike in 2022 (prev 4) and 13 in 2023 (prev 7)

In terms of overnight news, the RBA said its bond market operation was canceled overnight due to a technical glitch.

China's NDRC says has preliminary success curbing price surges in commodity prices.

Australian May Employment Change +115.2K (expected +30K) & Unemployment Rate: 5.1% (expected 5.5%). New Zealand GDP for Q1 2021 (sa) 1.6% q/q (expected +0.5%).

RBA Gov Lowe said it is premature to be considering ending bond buying.

BoC Gov Macklem says economic recovery is making good progress. Macklem added the BoC is taking the recent strength of the CAD into account.

Following events last night, JP Morgan says they continue to expect Fed interest rate hike lift-off in 2023, taper in early 2022.

U.S. Treasury Sec Yellen says the U.S. may decouple from China to some extent.

U.S. President Biden warned Russian President Putin against the nation carrying out more cyberattacks against the nation.

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include EU CPI, rate decisions from Turkey and Switzerland, U.S. initial jobless claims, Philly Fed manufacturing data. We could also hear from U.S. treasury secretary Yellen, ECB's Elderson, ECB's Lane, German Buba's Balz and German Buba's Mauderer.
 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David