Gold price jumps nearly $25, is this the start of a breakout?

With the Federal Reserve's tapering and new employment data out of the way, the gold market is finally moving.

Gold jumped $25 on Friday as markets started to anticipate a more patient Federal Reserve going forward. December Comex gold futures were last at $1,818.60, up 1.40% on the day.

Despite kicking off tapering this month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged uncertainty around inflation while stressing it is too soon to start raining rates.

"The intra-day volatility for gold has been on the rise. The market is trying to digest how hawkish the Fed actually is. Powell's comments left plenty of wiggle room to walk back that hawkishness. The central bank is more likely to stay patient to help the economy, which is positive for gold. The Fed might wait longer for rate hikes, or it might even stop its taper of QE," Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman told Kitco News.

On the economic data side, gold rallied despite the U.S. economy adding an impressive 531,000 positions and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.6% in October.

The reason for that was the unchanged participation rate, which remained at 61.6%, said TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek.

"That essentially means that the labor force participation is still at problematically low levels, and we are nowhere near full employment," Melek said. "This is why markets are not pricing in the probability of Fed's tightening as imminent. Plus, it is doubtful that the strong job growth pace will continue for the next six months or a year."

With the Fed's somewhat dovish tapering announcement and the jobs data in mind, the anticipated June rate hike is not looking very likely.

"The Fed will keep monetary policy quite easy for a prolonged period because we are not near full employment. Fed's view is that keeping the economy hot will ultimately trigger the absorption of more people into the labor force. They need to reverse those mass resignations," Melek said.

Millman also added that the positive employment number not impacting gold is a sign that markets expect the central bank to be patient. "Gold, dollar, yields are moving in the same direction, which is unusual, but it is a safe-haven response in case the Fed can't raise rates," he said.

 

Levels to watch

Gold could see some profit-taking above $1,800 an ounce, said Melek. "The $1,809 level is pretty firm resistance. Once we pass through that, we can go higher." Meanwhile, the $1,786 level continues to act as support.

If gold breaks above $1,800, it could see a $50-move next week, noted Millman. "The key outside markets to watch will be the dollar and the bond market. If both of those stay steady, gold will continue to be stuck in its range. If we see a lot of demand for the dollar and treasuries, to me, that would indicate a safe-haven response that gold would follow," he added.

Also working in gold's favor is the market potentially perceiving the Fed as making a policy mistake.

"That would be in response to the economy not being able to handle normalization of monetary policy. It would signal that the Fed is making a policy mistake. The U.S. dollar, yields, and gold moving in the same direction would be a reflection of how the market believes that the Fed is doing its job. All three of them are considered safe-havens."

 

Key data

Next week, the big data release will be Wednesday's inflation number, with the market consensus calling for October CPI to come in at 5.8% on an annual basis.

"Surging housing costs, labor costs, energy costs, and second-hand car prices are likely to mean headline inflation then pushes above 6% in December, with core inflation moving above 5%," said ING chief International economist James Knightley. "The Federal Reserve assumes that inflation will fall sharply in 2Q and 3Q next year, but we are wary that labor market shortages, production bottlenecks, and supply chain issues could last well into next year."

Markets will also be watching the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday and the initial jobless claims on Wednesday.

 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

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Gold breaks out, will it 'steal the show' in 2022?

It's been a very busy data week for the markets. The Federal Reserve announced tapering of its asset purchases and the U.S. economy added more than 500,000 jobs in October.

Gold is finally starting to react — surging $25 on Friday and rising well above the $1,800 an ounce level. Markets now seem to be pricing in a more patient Federal Reserve going forward.

Here's a look at Kitco's top three stories of the week:

3. Fed’s Powell talks inflation uncertainty, stresses it's 'premature' to raise rates

2. Gold set 'to steal the show in 2022' – Bloomberg Intelligence

1. Ethereum hits new all-time highs as analysts point to inflation-hedge appeal
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

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Gold's not going down without a fight

It has been a frustrating couple of months for gold investors as the precious metal has been unable to attract any sustainable momentum. However, it looks like the tide is turning as rising inflation makes the precious metal an attractive, undervalued hedge.

Gold prices are looking to close Friday near an eight-week high above $1,800 an ounce. This is the first time since late September that the precious metal has ended the week above what has been a solid resistance point.

The rally in gold comes after the U.S. Labor Department said that 531,000 jobs were created in October, solidly beating expectations. However, according to some analysts, markets appear to be focusing on wage inflation.

The report said that wages have increased 4.9% in the last 12 months. According to some economists, this trend will continue as companies are forced to raise wages to attract new workers.

Not only are price pressures growing, but the Federal Reserve appears to be content to remain behind the inflation curve. Wednesday, as expected, the U.S. central bank announced that it will reduce its monthly bond purchases. However, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also said that this is not the time to raise interest rates.

With the Federal Reserve not looking to raise interest rates anytime, we can expect that with rising inflation pressures, real rates will start to fall, adding to the already positive environment for gold.

But it's not just the Federal Reserve that is not ready to raise interest. The Bank of England was the biggest surprise in central bank news as it did not raise interest rates on Thursday. A rate hike had been telegraphed by the BoE and markets had fully priced in the move and were sorely disappointed.

Looking at the big picture, it makes sense that central banks are not in a hurry to raise interest rates because that won't begin to solve the current inflation crisis. Economists have noted that the global supply crunch is driving prices.

"Tighter monetary policies won't solve the backlog in the Ports; it won't bring new microchips online," Robert Minter, director of investment strategy at abrdn (formerly Aberdeen Standard Investments). "All they are going to do is create a new hurdle to grow cap-ex when it is actually needed. Federal Reserve policies can't fix supply-side issues."

Finally, to bring cryptos into the mix, the historic rally in cryptocurrencies is added to the wage inflation and labor market shortage.

A Civic Science poll showed that 4% of 6,471 respondents resigned from their jobs in the past 12 months, citing "financial freedom" due to their crypto investments.

Another 7% of the respondents answered that they knew someone who had quit their job because of that specific reason.
 

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

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Gold surges as Bank of England mimic the Fed, indicating both central banks are in no rush to raise rates

Gold prices surged in trading as the Bank of England joined the central bank of the United States, expressing that they were not in favor of raising interest rates at any time in the near future. During Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference yesterday, he made it clear that they're not even thinking about, thinking about raising rates anytime soon. In terms of traders' reaction to the chairman's statements indicating that they have no set timeline in which to initiate lift-off, I believe what we witnessed today in gold was a delayed reaction coupled with the confirmation that the Bank of England was on the same page.

As of 5:50 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active December 2021 contract had a robust gain of 1.65%, or $29.10. Currently, December gold futures are fixed at $1793. Today's gains reversed the decline in gold yesterday when gold dropped by over $20 per ounce. While it is clear that the announcement by the Bank of England supported the recent announcement by the Federal Reserve not to address interest rates, it seems more plausible that today's gains were a delayed reaction as market participants absorbed yesterday's comments by Chairman Powell as well as facts contained within the statement released immediately following the conclusion of the FOMC meeting.

Without offering a timeline, the Federal Reserve's FOMC statement talked about the necessary triggers before interest rates would be raised. In essence, the criteria are the completion of their dual mandate, which is maximum employment and inflation target at approximately 2%. Yesterday's FOMC statement laid out the necessary criteria needed for the Federal Reserve to announce a timeline on lift-off, or interest rate normalization.

"The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. With inflation having run persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer‑term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent. The Committee expects to maintain an accommodative stance of monetary policy until these outcomes are achieved."

In regards to leaving interest rates (Fed funds) unchanged, the statement read as follows;

"The Committee decided to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent and expects it will be appropriate to maintain this target range until labor market conditions have reached levels consistent with the Committee's assessments of maximum employment and inflation has risen to 2 percent and is on track to moderately exceed 2 percent for some time."

Lastly, they announced that they would begin the tapering process reducing their monthly asset purchases by $15 billion per month. The $15 billion monthly reductions would include a $10 billion reduction per month in U.S. debt and a reduction of $5 billion monthly in mortgage-backed securities. However, there was a large caveat to that statement as the statement said;

"The Committee decided to begin reducing the monthly pace of its net asset purchases by $10 billion for Treasury securities and $5 billion for agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning later this month, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $70 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $35 billion per month. Beginning in December, the Committee will increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $60 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $30 billion per month. The Committee judges that similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but it is prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook."

After analyzing the FOMC statement very carefully, many analysts including myself, see that the Federal Reserve is keeping all of its options on the table, including the level of tapering, and more importantly not even suggesting any kind of timeline for lift-off until the criteria that they have laid out has been met.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

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The Federal Reserve announces that they will begin to taper asset purchases this month

As expected, today, after the November FOMC meeting, both the statement and press conference by Jerome Powell acknowledged that they will begin the process of tapering their monthly asset purchases this month. Starting this month, they will reduce their monthly purchases of U.S. debt by $10 billion each month and reduce their monthly purchases of MBS (mortgage-backed securities) by $5 billion monthly. This would mean that they will complete the tapering process in eight months, concluding in June 2022. The Federal Reserve instructed agents at New York Fed to begin executing the reducing bond purchases in mid-November.

But there was a caveat to that statement. During Chairman Powell's press conference, he stated that although the U.S. central bank will begin the reduction of asset purchases this month, he tempered that statement by saying that they were open to adjusting the monthly reductions if called for by market conditions.

Reporters for Reuters, Howard Schneider, and Ann Saphir said that "Policymakers, the Fed said, judge that "similar reductions in the pace of net asset purchases will likely be appropriate each month, but (are) prepared to adjust the pace of purchases if warranted by changes in the economic outlook."

In terms of an interest rate lift-off, it has been widely assumed amongst analysts that an interest rate normalization or lift-off could not begin before the tapering process is complete as it would be detrimental to economic recovery. That being said, the Federal Reserve did not indicate when they would begin interest rate normalization. At the same time, the Federal Reserve made it clear that they intended to leave interest rates where they are until inflation moves back to its 2% target.

Furthermore, the Fed made it clear that they would not consider interest rate hikes until inflation was on track, only moderately exceeding 2%, which Powell stated would take more time than originally anticipated. However, they still have stuck to their belief that the vast majority of inflationary pressures such as supply chain issues and labor shortages will be transitory.

Reuters reported that "Overall, the central bank said it still believed that recent high inflation would abate, but the small change in the language indicated Fed officials see the process taking longer. Inflation by the Fed's preferred measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, has run at double the target rate since May. Still, officials are reluctant to change their policy outlook until it is clear that the pace of price increases won't ease on its own."

During Chairman Powell's press conference, he said, "As the pandemic subsides, supply-chain bottlenecks will abate and job growth will move back up, and as that happens, inflation will decline from today's elevated levels. Of course, the timing of that is highly uncertain."

One interesting fact contained in today's statement was that "Economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen." This statement conflicts with the most recent GDP numbers for the third quarter of 2021. The government released a report recently showing that the GDP has contracted from 6.7% during the second quarter to 2% in the third quarter.

Today's FOMC statements, along with Chairman Powell's press conference had a dramatic impact on the financial markets as a whole. In terms of the U.S. equity markets, they were trading lower before the release of the statement and moved higher as the statement was released and Chairman Powell spoke. All of the U.S. equities closed at record highs with the NASDAQ composite gaining 1.04%, the S&P 500 gaining 0.65%, and the Dow Jones industrial average gaining 0.29%.

Concurrently although gold moved off of its lows seen before the release of the statement and Powell's press conference gold still closed dramatically lower. Gold futures basis, the most active December 2021 contract was trading down by $23 before the release of the statement, and as of 5:35 PM, EDT is currently fixed at $1770.10 after factoring in today's net decline of $19.30, or -1.08%. The dollar also closed lower on the day, giving up 0.23% (0.219 points) and is currently fixed at 93.86.

Unquestionably the Federal Reserve is hedging its bets as it did announce the beginning of tapering but also alluded to their openness to adjust the tapering timeline of asset purchases. Much of their policy is built on the assumption that the current levels of inflation are transitory but put caveats to their tapering process in case they are wrong. The Federal Reserve is less confident that inflationary pressures will subside as quickly as they first perceived. This leaves us to our conclusion to today's press conference.

While the Federal Reserve has not acknowledged that we are in an economic period called stagflation, which occurs when there is persistently high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant growth in a country's economy. The economic scenario that the United States is currently experiencing meets all three requirements. If this correctly depicts our current economic conditions it presents a problem.

InflationData.com defined the issues eloquently saying that, "clamping down on interest rates is kind of like stomping on the accelerator with one foot (increasing the money supply) and stomping on the brakes with the other (increasing interest rates). The major problem with stagflation is that the normal methods of increasing interest rates don't help the situation. The only reason it helps in times of high economic activity is because it slows the "velocity of money" or the speed at which it changes hands."

Unfortunately, currently, the Fed is still in denial about the stagflation situation and is maintaining low-interest rates and decreasing the money supply by reducing their asset purchases. Their current strategy is risky; if they are incorrect about inflation being transitory, it could be detrimental to the U.S. economy.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

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Gold price is a cheap hedge as Fed can't control supply-side inflation pressures – abrdn

The Federal Reserve is on the cusp of shifting its monetary policies, but it won't be enough to stop the growing inflation pressures, and it is only a matter of time before investors return to gold to protect their wealth, according to one market strategist.

As the Federal Reserve starts its two-day monetary policy meeting, expectations are growing that the central bank will reduce its monthly bond purchases. At the same time, markets are pricing in a rate hike as early as June. However, Robert Minter, director of investment strategy at abrdn (formerly Aberdeen Standard Investments), said, in a recent telephone interview with Kitco News that the new hawkish tones in the Federal Reserve won't be able to stop inflation from rising.

"Tighter monetary policies won't solve the backlog in the Ports; it won't bring new microchips online," he said. "All they are going to do is create a new hurdle to grow cap-ex when it is actually needed. Federal Reserve policies can't fix supply-side issues."

Minter added that the ultimate risk is that rising inflation leads to stagflation as global consumption drops.

"The ultimate sweet spot for gold is stagflation because you have higher inflation and a lower U.S. dollar," he said. "Right now, investors aren't quite convinced that stagflation is the scenario that plays out going forward but could quickly change. You certainly cannot take stagflation out of the realm of possibilities."

Looking at the gold market, Minter said that he expects it's only a matter of time before the current price attract investors looking for protection and value.

"If you look at where real yields are right now, it looks like gold prices should be closer to $1,900 than $1,800 an ounce. Gold right now looks cheap to us," he said.

"Until the government finds a way to get rid of its $28 trillion in debt and the $8 trillion on the Fed's balance sheet, we are not sellers of gold," he added.

Not only is the Federal Reserve unable to resolve inflation driven by the ongoing global supply crunch, but Minter said that growing demand for raw materials is going to keep inflation elevated for a prolonged period.

Minter added that the global push for more renewable clean energy will continue to drive demand for raw materials like copper and aluminum.

"The government has thrown a lot of money into the economy and yet it has not solved a single problem," he said. "It's going to take a lot more money to upgrade the infrastructure and build a green economy. You can't spend all that money and not have higher inflation."

Along with gold, Minter is also bullish on silver as the metal will benefit from the green energy revolution. He added that silver will quickly become an essential industrial metal like copper and aluminum.
 

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

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David

Gold price at daily highs as ISM Manufacturing Index retreats but beats expectations in October

Gold prices ticked to daily highs as the headline manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management retreated in October but came in above expectations.

The ISM manufacturing index was at 60.8% last month, beating the consensus forecast of 60.5%. But the monthly figure marked a 0.3 percentage-point decline from September's reading of 61.1%.

"This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the 17th month in a row after a contraction in April 2020," the report said.

Readings above 50% in such diffusion indexes are seen as a sign of economic growth and vice-versa. The farther an indicator is above or below 50%, the greater or smaller the rate of change.

Following the release, gold prices edged up to daily highs, with December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,793.40, up 0.53% on the day.

In October, the employment index rose to 52%, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month’s reading. The index for new orders decreased to 59.8% from 66.7%, while the production index declined to 59.3% from 59.4%.

The report noted that companies continue to deal with an "unprecedented number of hurdles" in the face of rising demand.

"All segments of the manufacturing economy are impacted by record-long raw materials lead times, continued shortages of critical materials, rising commodities prices and difficulties in transporting products. Global pandemic-related issues — worker absenteeism, short-term shutdowns due to parts shortages, difficulties in filling open positions and overseas supply chain problems — continue to limit manufacturing growth potential," said Timothy Fiore, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing Business Survey Committee.

 

Despite these obstacles, business sentiment remains "strongly optimistic," the report added.

 

For Kitco News

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