Hawkish central banks will test gold bulls’ resolve into year-end

Hawkish central banks will test gold bulls' resolve into year-end

he gold market is holding its ground at around $1,800 an ounce despite growing hawkish rhetoric from central banks around the world; the bullish sentiment in the marketplace is pointing to a positive end for the precious metal for 2022.

The latest Kitco News shows that retail investors are still significantly bullish on gold heading into the final full trading week of the year. At the same time, Wall Street analysts are slightly more cautious, with many saying that lower gold prices represent a strategic buying opportunity.

Although the Federal Reserve has signaled that it is nowhere near ready to halt its tightening cycle, analysts note that the market is starting to discount the hawkish stance. Some analysts have said that investors are now shifting their focus to the growing recession fears and away from the inflation threat.

"The Fed is not pumping the breaks just yet, but it is taking its foot off the gas, and that should help gold consolidate around $1,800," said Frank Cholly, senior market strategist at RJO Futures.

Christopher Vecchio, head of futures and forex at Tastylive.com, said that weaker economic growth is helping to bring down real yields, which continues to support gold around $1,800 an ounce.

"I think gold right now is well positioned to start the new year on a strong note," he said.

This week, 20 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey. Among the participants, nine analysts, or 45%, were bullish on gold in the near term. At the same time, five analysts, or 25%, were bearish for next week and six analysts, or 30%, saw prices trading sideways.

Meanwhile, 772 votes were cast in an online Main Street poll. Of these, 437 respondents, or 57%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 202, or 26%, said it would be lower, while 133 voters, or 17%, were neutral in the near term.

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The gold market is looking to end the week in roughly neutral territory, with prices down 0.5% from last Friday. February gold futures last traded at $1,800 an ounce.

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forelive.com, said he expects to see lower prices next week as hawkish central bank comments could weigh on prices.

Not only is the Federal Reserve not done raising interest rates, but European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warned investors that the ECB is expected to continue to raise interest rates by 50 basis points well into 2023.

However, Button added that any dip in the price could be a buying opportunity as this is seasonally a strong period for gold.

"Even holding steady for the remainder of the month would be a win and set up gold for a nice rally in January," he said.

While gold has remained resilient as central banks tighten monetary policies worldwide, some analysts have noted that bullish momentum is starting to weigh as resistance holds around $1,800 an ounce.

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Downside risks for gold and silver prices in 2023 – Natixis' Dahdah

"The momentum indicators have not recovered. I still think a bigger pullback may be coming, but so far [gold has been] more resilient than I thought," said Marc Chandler, managing director at Bannockburn Global Forex. "This seems to be corresponding to a U.S. dollar, which seems better offered into rallies than bought on dips."

Darin Newsom, senior market analyst at Barchart, said that he sees the U.S. dollar entering a short-term uptrend helping to push gold prices lower.

"Last week's call for a lower market is still working, unless Feb gold posts a strong rally to close out Friday. If it doesn't, then the contract will have completed a bearish spike reversal on its weekly chart, confirming the secondary (intermediate-term) trend has turned down," he said.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

The Fed’s made its move and now it’s gold’s turn

The Fed's made its move and now it's gold's turn
The gold market appears to be taking the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance in stride as the precious metal’s price continues to hold on to support around $1,800 an ounce.
This week the Federal Reserve signaled it will continue to raise interest rates in 2023 even if the pace of its rate hikes slows. Last week we warned that an adjustment to the Fed’s interest rate expectations presented a risk to gold. But the meeting has come and gone and gold investors are shrugging off the Fed’s new forecast that their key interest rate will peak above 5% in 2023. Heading into the weekend, February gold futures are down only 0.5% since last Friday.
According to market analysts, there could be a few reasons why gold has remained reasonably resilient following the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance. One scenario is that investors are now becoming less concerned about inflation and more worried about a recession.
Economic data, from disappointing holiday retail sales to slowing activity in the manufacturing and service sectors, are highlighting a slowing U.S. economy. The concern is that the more hawkish the Fed is, the deeper the impending recession will be.
Many analysts have noted that a recession is a positive environment for gold as investors look for assets, which preserve their wealth. George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, noted in an interview with Kitco News this week that in the last seven recessions, gold has seen an average return of roughly 20%. The deeper the recession, the better gold does, he said.
The second scenario that could be bolstering gold is that as hawkish as the Fed is, a lot of that is now already priced into the market. Some analysts believe that the U.S. dollar has peaked as the Fed starts to slow the pace of its rate hikes. At the same time, the European Central Bank has just started its hawkish long game, according to ECB President Christine Lagarde.
On Thursday, less than 24 hours after the Fed’s monetary policy announcement, Lagarde came out and said that the ECB will have to raise interest rates by 50 basis points for a prolonged period to bring inflation down. A narrowing of the monetary policy gap between the two major central banks should weigh on the U.S. dollar, which in turn should support gold prices.
Hawkish central banks will test gold bulls' resolve into year-end
There is also a third theory floating around: that the market and investors just don’t believe the Fed. It’s easy to talk tough when the economy and the labor market are still relatively healthy, but what happens when the Fed’s monetary policy action really starts to bite?
Some market analysts have said that if the U.S. enters a deep recession, the Fed will quickly loosen its monetary policies, which will be good for gold.
If you want to find out what’s in store for gold, silver, cryptocurrencies, financial markets and the global economy in 2023, don’t forget to check out Kitco News’ annual outlook coverage. Investors will continue to navigate a world of extreme uncertainty, an ongoing energy crisis, the continuous inflation threat and the potential for a deep recession, and we’ll be looking at how all of these factors impact key markets.
This is also Kitco News’ final newsletter of 2022, so on behalf of the new team, we would like to wish everyone a wonderful holiday season and a prosperous and safe new year.
By Neils Christensen
For Kitco News
Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold, silver hit hard by hawkish Fed, surge in greenback

Gold and silver prices are sharply lower in midday U.S. trading Thursday. The precious metals bulls were running for cover today amid sharp gains in the U.S. dollar index and in the aftermath the FOMC meeting that sees the Federal Reserve still leaning hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. February gold was last down $32.00 at $1,786.00 and March silver was down $0.836 at $23.305.

A still-hawkish Federal Reserve had traders and investors in a "risk-off" stance Thursday. Two months of better-than-expected U.S. inflation data were not enough to convince the Fed to let its foot off the monetary-policy-tightening gas. "Higher for longer" is the marketplace takeaway from this week's FOMC meeting—meaning higher interest rates for a longer period of time—to ensure the Fed tamps down hard on inflation.

Global stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday.

The European Central Bank and the Bank of England monetary policy meetings on Thursday saw both the BOE and ECB raise their main interest rate by 0.5%. That follows the U.S. Federal Reserve's half-point rate hike. The central banks of Switzerland and Norway also raised their interest rates Thursday but also in smaller increments of policy tightening.

China and its fight against Covid remains near the front burner of the marketplace. Broker SP Angel this morning said in an email dispatch there is increasing evidence that China is now "allowing Covid to rip through the population." There is relatively little vaccination and almost no effective vaccination against Omicron in China. "That means the virus will bypass most of the Covid controls left in place." The Wall Street Journal said today that "China's economy took a big hit in November" due to strict Covid lockdown policies.

The ECB's aggressive monetary policy stance gives gold a lifeline as euro makes a move against U.S. dollar

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $76.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently around 3.45%.

Technically, February gold futures bulls are fading late this week but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart is in jeopardy. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week's high of $1,836.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,750.00. First resistance is seen at $1,800.00 and then at today's high of $1,819.70. First support is seen at today's low of $1,782.00 and then at $1,778.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March silver futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at $24.00 and then at this week's high of $24.39. Next support is seen at today's low of $23.155 and then at $23.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 1,125 points at 376.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 354.70 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 386.75 cents and then at this week's high of 392.90 cents. First support is seen at 370.00 cents and then at 360.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Tough talk by Chairman Powell signaling more rate hikes over a longer time span

As expected, the Fed announced its decision to raise its benchmark rate by 50-bps. This takes the central bank’s “Fed funds” rate to between 425 – 450 bps (4 ¼% – 4 ½%). However, it was Chairman Powell’s comments regarding his policy outlook during the press conference that garnered the most attention. Market participants and analysts were looking for insight into the forward guidance of the Federal Reserve as it pertains to their monetary policy, inflation, and future rate hikes. Which revealed that the Federal Reserve will continue its policy of monetary tightening by continuing to raise rates in 2023.

The Federal Reserve released a statement as well as its summary of economic projections for 2023 through 2025 after today’s FOMC meeting. One component of their economic projections was the most current “dot plot” which reveals assessments made by each Fed official. When the Fed is fully staffed the dot plot will contain 19 individual projections.

2023 – All of the 19 Federal Reserve members who added their “dot” to the Fed’s projections reflected higher interest rates in 2023. The majority of members (10 votes) anticipate rates to be at 5 ¼%, with four members anticipating rates to go to 5 ½%, two members anticipating rates at 5 ¾% and two members anticipating rates at 4 ¾%.

2024 -seven members anticipate that interest rates will remain elevated above the current rate of 4 ½%, with the remaining 12 members anticipating rate reductions from ¼% to 1 ½%.

2025 – all Federal Reserve members anticipate that fed funds rates will be 4 ½% to 3% by the end of 2025.

Chairman Powell delivered a strong message reinforcing the information contained in their economic outlook and the Fed’s policy outlook saying, “Fed policymaker projections are best assessment of where Fed policy rates will be.”

Chairman Powell’s press conference

Chairman Powell acknowledged that the last two CPI reports were promising but incomplete. “Data we have received so far on inflation for October and November do show a welcome reduction in price pressures; need substantially more evidence though to be confident inflation coming down.” He also said that “recent data gives us greater confidence in our forecast.”

His statements supported the Federal Reserve’s resolve and commitment to keep interest rates at their current level and higher until the Fed reaches its inflation target of 2%. Addressing the possibility of a recession he simply said “no one knows if we are going to have a recession or not.”

Today’s FOMC meeting statement, economic projections, and press conference resulted in declines in the dollar, US equities, and precious metals. As of 5:20 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active February 2023 contract is currently fixed at $1818.80 after factoring in today’s decline of $6.70 or 0.37%. Concurrently the dollar declined by 0.33% and is currently fixed at 103.595. Dollar weakness added $6.70 to the price of spot gold and normal trading indicated that traders moved gold pricing lower by $9.40, according to the Kitco gold index.

It was clear that Chairman Powell's statements today delivered a hard-hitting truth to Americans that inflation will remain persistent for longer than anticipated and interest rates will follow the same course.

By Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Slightly cooler U.S. inflation report boosts gold, silver

Gold and silver prices are solidly higher in midday U.S. trading Tuesday, but down from daily highs, following a slightly tamer-than-expected U.S. inflation report. Gold surged to a five-month high and silver a seven-month high right after the report’s release. February gold was last up $26.70 at $1,818.90 and March silver was up $0.407 at $23.81.

The U.S. consumer price index report for November showed a rise of 0.1% from October and was up 7.1%, year-on-year. CPI was forecast to come in up 0.3% from October and up 7.3%, year-on-year. The slightly cooler-than-expected inflation data was enough to rally the stock and financial markets, and the metals, while tanking the U.S. dollar index. The CPI report lands in the camp of the U.S. monetary policy doves, who want to see the Federal Reserve back off the accelerator on its aggressive monetary policy tightening path.

U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday and have lost early strong gains in the aftermath of the CPI report. After the initial euphoria from the CPI report, traders and investors realized the Federal Reserve still has some tightening of monetary policy in their sights. The Fed’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting began Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Powell. The FOMC is very likely to raise U.S. interest rates by 0.5%. The European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet on Thursday and are likely to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve with half-point rate hikes.

Deutsche Bank wants back in the gold market after eight-year absence

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply down and hitting a 5.5-month low. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and trading around $75.85 a barrel. A major oil pipeline in the U.S. has been shut due to a leak, and that’s supporting Nymex crude oil prices this week. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.492% and fell after the cooler CPI report.

Technically, February gold futures prices hit a five-month high today. The gold futures bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,900.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,775.00. First resistance is seen at $1,822.90 and then at today’s high of $1,836.90. First support is seen at $1,800.00 and then at this week’s low of $1,789.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

March silver futures prices hit a seven-month high today. The silver bulls have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $24.39 and then at $25.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $23.32 and then at $23.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 425 points at 364.25 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 354.70 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 392.90 cents and then at the November high of 394.70 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 378.60 cents and then at 370.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold, silver see routine profit taking

Gold and silver prices are solidly lower in midday U.S. trading Monday. Normal corrective pullbacks and some profit taking by the shorter-term futures traders were featured to start the trading week, following recent good price gains for both metals. A firmer U.S. dollar index on this day also worked against the metals market bulls. February gold was last down $17.70 at $1,792.90 and March silver was down $0.287 at $23.435.

Traders await a major U.S. data point on Tuesday–the consumer price index report for November, out at 8:30 a.m. EST. The CPI is seen coming in up 7.3%, year-on-year.

Major central banks will this week complete the most aggressive year for interest-rate hikes in four decades with their fight against inflation still not over even as their economies slow. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chair Powell. The FOMC is mostly likely to raise U.S. interest rates by 0.5%. Then, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meet on Thursday and are likely to follow the U.S. Federal Reserve with half-point rate hikes.

Outlook 2023 LIVE with Gareth Soloway

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $72.75 a barrel. Prices last Friday hit an 11-month low. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently 3.593%.

Technically, February gold futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the December high of $1,822.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,750.00. First resistance is seen at $1,800.00 and then at today’s high of $1,809.30. First support is seen at last week’s low of $1,778.10 and then at $1,770.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy 3.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at the December high of $23.90 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at $23.00 and then at $22.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 830 points at 379.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 354.70 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 385.95 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 377.30 cents and then at 370.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Hawkish Fed surprise could knock down gold price next week

Even though gold is looking to end the week above $1,800 an ounce, there is a high chance for a move lower as the Federal Reserve can still surprise on the hawkish side, according to analysts.

Despite the rally, the precious metal is trading essentially flat on the week, with February Comex gold futures last at $1,815 an ounce.

All eyes are now on the November inflation figure after the Producer Price Index (PPI) rose more than expected.

The CPI print is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, with analysts warning that inflation will likely remain elevated and be slow to decelerate.

"Next week, the CPI is anticipated to trend in the right direction, but it won't come down as quickly as many anticipate. I'm partially bearish on gold next week," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. "Post-Fed, gold could be reeling but then eventually settling higher. Looking at a potential downside for next week, but that will be short-lived."

What to expect from the Fed

The Fed will announce another rate hike on Wednesday, with markets looking for a slower tightening pace of 50 bps versus 75 bps. But a slower pace does not necessarily mean the U.S. central bank is pivoting away from its plan. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already warned that rates might have to stay higher for longer.

Investors will be paying close attention to the updated dot plot, economic projections, and the language Powell uses during the press conference.

"The new dot plot and new economic forecasts are risk factors for gold. Message from Powell and other Fed speakers has been that the pace of hikes may slow, but we may still see a terminal rate that is somewhat higher," TD Securities commodity strategist Daniel Ghali told Kitco News.

Ghali added that gold has been benefiting from a short-covering rally that is now close to its end. "We've seen a substantial amount of short-covering, which contributed to the rise in gold prices. As the year draws to a close, money managers are reluctant to put on a substantial amount of risk on the table. From this point on, most short covering is now in the rearview, and prices are still at risk of a more hawkish Fed on the horizon," he noted.

How investors interpret the Fed's messaging will also be important, Moya explained. "It will be interesting to see how investors feel about the Fed. Will this be the last hike followed by a pause? You could still make a case that they could go another 50 bps in February. And then, in March, it would be a toss-up. It still seems that more tightening is warranted," he said.

Aside from the macro data, geopolitics might start playing a bigger role for gold again as the war in Ukraine could escalate further, Moya warned.

"That is something we need to stay on top of. Risks of the war escalating further are once again circulating. That is going to give gold some safe haven value," he said.

Russian forces stepped up activity on Friday, shelling the entire front line in the Donetsk region of eastern Ukraine. Meanwhile, Russia's President Vladimir Putin accused the West of "exploiting" Ukraine and using its people as "cannon fodder."

Gold price levels to watch

For gold to make another significant move higher, it needs to cross its 200-day moving average at $1,821, RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News. "The $1,821 level is very critical. If the market can close above it, then I get bullish. Right now, gold is struggling to get above the 200-day moving average. This is also where it topped out last week," he said.

The outlook on where rates will be next year is what will give gold its direction next week, Cholly added, noting that he is keeping a close eye on the U.S. dollar as well.

Ghali said that more buying would come in at the $1,830 an ounce level, while a drop to $1,740 an ounce could trigger a selloff.

Moya sees $1,775 as key support for gold and $1,830 as an upper boundary in the current price range.

Data to watch next week

Tuesday: U.S. CPI

Wednesday: Fed rate decision with FOMC economic projections

Thursday: ECB rate decision, Bank of England decision, U.S. retail sales, U.S. jobless claims, N.Y. Empire State manufacturing index, Philly Fed Manufacturing index

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Russia’s gold reserves a target in U.S. defense spending bill

Russia's gold reserves a target in U.S. defense spending bill

The U.S. continues to target Russia's massive gold reserves in an effort to sanction the country for its nearly year-long invasion of Ukraine.

Thursday, the U.S. House of Representatives passed the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which will boost defense spending to a record $858 billion next year.

However, the spending bill also includes an amendment that makes it difficult for Russia to use its massive horde of gold. The proposed legislation would directly sanction any U.S. entities that transact with or transport gold from Russia's central bank reserves.

The amendment is similar to a bill introduced in March by independent Senator from Main Angus King, Republican Senators John Cornyn of Texas and Bill Hagerty of Tennessee and Democratic Senator from New Hampshire Maggie Hassan.

"Russia's massive gold supply is one of the few remaining assets that Putin can tap to bankroll his country's violent, bloody expansionism," King told CNN in a statement. "By sanctioning these reserves, we can further isolate Russia from the world's economy and increase the difficulty of Putin's increasingly-costly military campaign."

Russia's central bank has the fifth largest gold reserves in the world at 2,298.50 tonnes, currently valued at $133.6 billion.

"Having this national security imperative in a national defense bill is a clear and powerful way to undercut Putin's illegal, amoral acts and make the financial pinch tighter," King added in his statement.

Sentiment in gold evenly split as prices end the week at a four-month high

Russia's gold has been the target of sanction through 2022. In March, just after Russia invaded Ukraine, the London Bullion Market Association suspended six Russian gold and silver refineries from its Good Delivery list, effectively cutting Russia off from the London precious metals market. In June, leaders of the seven largest economies in the world banned imports of Russian gold.

However, some analysts have said that the western sanctions on Russia have had a negligible effect on the gold market. Russia can still sell its gold to China and Middle Eastern nations.

After passing the House, the legislation will now move to the Senate for a vote.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold trades sideways as investors wait for next week’s FOMC and CPI report

Unlike yesterday’s double-digit gain in gold prices, today we see gold once again consolidating as it did on Tuesday. Tuesday’s price consolidation in gold indicated that the dramatic decline that occurred on Monday was more akin to a one-and-done scenario than the beginning of a correction. It was the equal or slightly higher low on Tuesday that was just as important as the fractional gains. It indicated solid short-term support for gold futures at around $1780.

Yesterday gold had a respectable price advance recovering roughly half of the decline traders witnessed on Monday. But I believe the key takeaway from the fractional gains on Tuesday and today is that market participants are waiting for the latest information on inflation when the CPI (Consumer Price Index) is released next Tuesday and the Federal Reserve’s last FOMC meeting of the year concludes on the following day.

The most important factor in recent and upcoming price changes in gold is that it has been and will continue to be driven by headlines.

Market participants are by large anticipating that the Federal Reserve will announce a 50-basis point rate hike rather than 75-basis points. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 79.4% probability of a 50-BP rate hike, with only a 20.6% probability of a 75-BP rate hike by the Fed next week. This would break the 75-BP rate hike cycle set by the Federal Reserve beginning in June. This means that a rate hike of ½ a percent next week has been largely factored or baked into the pricing.

Gold futures basis the most active February 2023 contract opened in New York at $1799.50 and traded to a high of $1806. As of 4:35 PM EST, the February contract of gold futures is currently fixed at $1801.20 after factoring in today’s net gain of $3.30. This is just above the 200-day MA which is at $1800.20.

Today’s gains in gold pricing were based upon dollar weakness combined with fractional selling pressure in gold. The dollar is currently trading lower by 0.28% and gold futures are currently up 0.18% higher which confirms that today’s price change in gold is a net result of that combination.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold breaks above its 200-day moving average then moves back below it

Gold futures basis the most active February 2023 contract opened in New York at $1783.30 and traded to a high of $1803.20 just above its 200-day moving average which is currently fixed at $1800.70. The price point of this long-term moving average at least for the short term became a technical level of resistance moving gold back below it. As of 4:19 PM EST, the February contract of gold futures is currently fixed at $1798.90 after factoring in today’s net gain of $16.50 or 0.93%.

Today’s double-digit gains came out of a combination of dollar weakness and traders bidding the precious yellow metal higher. Currently, the dollar is down 0.41% with the dollar index fixed at 105.105. Gold’s gain of 0.92% indicates that market participants were not only active buyers but provided just over 50% of the gains realized in gold futures.

That same ratio can be seen in today’s pricing of physical gold. According to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX), spot gold as of 4:23 PM EST was fixed at $1786.70 after factoring in a net gain today of $15.50. Dollar weakness accounted for $6.55 of the $15.50 gain with the rest attributable to buyers bidding gold prices higher by $8.95.

Market participants move gold prices higher today as continued concerns focus on the Federal Reserve’s last FOMC meeting of the year next week and the next inflation report, the CPI. This report will be released during the first day of the two-day FOMC meeting. This will allow the Federal Reserve to see if the fractional decline in inflation reported for October 2022 in November is a continuation of declines in the CPI index after hitting the highest level this year in June when the CPI came in at a scorching 9.1%. From July to October, the CPI has had consecutive declines coming in at 8.5% in July, 8.3% in August, 8.2% in September, and 7.7% in October.

Traders and investors have largely priced in the high likelihood that the Fed will raise rates by 50 basis points, or a ½ %. This will take the current target rate of 375 – 400 basis points to 425 – 450 basis points by the end of the year. According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is a 74.7% probability of a 50-basis point rate hike and a 25.3% probability of a 75-basis point rate hike. It is the possibility, although remote, of a fifth consecutive rate hike of 75 basis points that continues to give market participants angst about the upcoming meeting.

Technical levels to watch with gold futures

Our technical studies indicate that the first level of resistance still occurs at $1802 based on gold’s current 200-day moving average. The next level of resistance above that is $1825 based upon the double top that occurred in both August and December.

Minor support first occurs at $1775 which corresponds to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. Major support occurs between $1720 the 50% retracement and $1745 the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David