Gold slightly up but strong greenback limits gains

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Gold slightly up but strong greenback limits gains teaser image

(Kitco News) – Gold prices are just slightly higher in midday U.S. trading Tuesday. Silver prices are slightly lower. Some modest safe-haven demand was featured today, but solid gains in the U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil prices have squelched buyer interest in the metals. February gold was last up $2.30 at $2,073.90. March silver was last up $0.021 at $24.075.

U.S. stock index futures are lower at midday as risk appetite in the marketplace is less robust on this first trading day of 2024. Reports say merchant ships in the Red Sea are still coming under attack from Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. The U.S. Navy sunk three Houthi boats on Sunday, killing its occupants. That has prompted some mild safe-haven demand for gold and silver.

In other news, there was more weak economic data coming out of China, as its official purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 49.0 in December from 49.4 in November. The services sector PMI was unchanged at 49.3 in December. Readings below 50.0 suggest contraction in the sector. This report was also a negative for the metals markets, as China is a major consumer of metals.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index strongly higher on a rebound after hitting a five-month low last week. The USDX is still in a downtrend, however. Nymex crude oil prices are lower, still trending down and trading around $70.75 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 3.929%.

U.S. economic data due out Tuesday includes the U.S. manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI), the global manufacturing PMI and construction spending.

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,152.30. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,000.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,088.10 and then at $2,100.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,064.30 and then at $2,058.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

March silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $26.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $22.785. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $24.335 and then at $24.50. Next

support is seen at last week’s low of $23.76 and then at $23.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

March N.Y. copper closed down 120 points at 387.85 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of 404.45 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the December low of 372.90 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 391.20 cents and then at the December high of 397.40 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 386.10 cents and then at 382.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Try out my “Markets Front Burner” email report. My next one is due out today and is going to be entitled, “When China sneezes…” Front Burner is my best writing and analysis, I think, because I get to look ahead at the marketplace and do some market price forecasting. And it’s free! Sign up to my new, free weekly Markets Front Burner newsletter, at https://www.kitco.com/services/markets-front-burner.html .

Kitco Media

Jim Wyckoff

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold closes out 2023 above $2063, technicals point to price gains in January

The Leading News Source in Precious Metals

Gold closes out 2023 above $2063, technicals point to price gains in January teaser image

(Kitco News) – If you told investors in September of last year that by the end of 2023, the gold price would be closing higher than the year, many would have dismissed it out of hand. At the time, gold was trading in the $1,640 range, well off its highs following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and high interest rates were providing additional headwinds for the precious metal.

Well, interest rates rose even higher this year, but spot gold still managed to finish the final trading day of 2023 trading at $2,063.45 at the time of writing, with many analysts predicting hundreds more in gains during the year to come.

Veteran trader CEO Technician noted in a post on X that gold had a solid year.

Kevin Wadsworth of NorthStarCharts hearkened back to those September 2022 doldrums to reflect on how far the precious metal has come, and why he was so confident in his bullish predictions.

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In another post, he shared an annual chart showing gold breaking to the upside ahead of 2024. “This will be gold's highest yearly close EVER,” he wrote.

And all of this comes ahead of what should be a very strong start to the new year, if history is any indication.

According to analysis by the World Gold Council, gold tends to perform very well in the first month of the year, posting an average return of 1.79% in January since 1971, nearly three times the precious metal’s long-term monthly average.

“This doesn’t mean that gold prices rise every January,” the WGC said. “There’ve been several years when it hasn’t, most recently in 2021 and 2022. Years with negative returns in January generally coincided with periods when the US dollar has strengthened – often significantly.”

But with the greenback seeing a recent pullback, and with rate cuts and treasury yields set to fall in the new year, January is shaping up to be one of the strong ones.

Alastair MacLeod, Head of Research for Goldmoney and SchiffGold, shared the following chart summarizing his perspective on gold’s likely trajectory in 2024. “It puts the price relationship in the right perspective!” he said.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David