Gold price troubled by U.S. dollar’s moves as Fed’s rate expectations diverge

Gold price troubled by U.S. dollar's moves as Fed's rate expectations diverge

After hitting a high of $2,055 an ounce this week, a move higher in the U.S. dollar weighed on the gold market, forcing the metal to end the week lower. Analysts point to divergence in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations as additional noise in the trading environment.

"This week was all about the dollar, which has had a significant rally, taking away some of gold's appeal," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News.

There is also a widening gap between market expectations and what the Fed's dot plot says, TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek said. "Even if the Fed is more dovish than it is now, there is a risk that the market might have to come closer to where the dots are. That's what gold is pricing in here," Melek told Kitco News.

A conflicting narrative is developing between the Fed signaling a pause in June and some Fed officials calling for more rate hikes.

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman said Friday that more policy tightening might be needed. "Should inflation remain high and the labor market remain tight, additional monetary policy tightening will likely be appropriate to attain a sufficiently restrictive stance of monetary policy to lower inflation over time," Bowman said. "I also expect that our policy rate will need to remain sufficiently restrictive for some time to bring inflation down and create conditions that will support a sustainably strong labor market."

Markets will have a hard time feeling confident that the Fed is done raising rates when Fed officials are saying these types of comments. "Bowman's comments caught my attention," Moya noted. "And if core inflation is still above 5% in the middle or end of summer, you should not be surprised if we get a much more hawkish Fed."

What this means for gold is that its path to record highs will be more complex than some would like to believe.

"I'm still bullish but not as aggressively. I am hesitant when people bet against the dollar, should not be surprised for the move higher to last a little longer. It could be troubling for gold. But the macro backdrop is great. We are still looking at a recession in the second half of this year or early 2024," Moya said.

Key events analysts are watching next week include more macro data, such as retail sales, the debt ceiling debate as the June 1 deadline nears, and the banking sector contagion risks.

"There are still too many risks that will lead investors to need more safe haven assets. There is too much geopolitical stress, and the debt ceiling debate is at an impasse. That X-date might get pushed out by a few weeks," Moya noted.

That additional market stress is coming, and credit conditions are tightening. "This is bad news for the economy," Moya said.

The recent macro data points to stubborn inflation, with the headline annual number falling below 5% in April, but the Fed's preferred core figure still at 5.5%.

The Fed rate hike expectations might remain in limbo until the new Fed dot plot is released at the June meeting, said Melek.

"Gold can go sub $2,000. There is strong support at around $1,965. We still expect $2,100, but that won't be sustained until the later part of the year when it becomes more certain that the Fed will ease," he noted.

From a technical point of view, the rally in gold is feeling some topside exhaustion, said Forex.com senior technical strategist Michael Boutros. The next key level to watch is $1,995. "If we break below that, expect a larger correction," Boutros said.

However, as long as $1,926 an ounce holds, the trade in gold is still constructive. "Fundamentals continue to support gold or at least give a floor to this," the strategist added.

Next week's data

Monday: NY Empire State manufacturing index

Tuesday: U.S. retail sales, industrial production

Wednesday: U.S. housing starts, building permits

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, existing home sales,

Friday: Fed Chair Powell speaks (conversation with Chair Jerome Powell and Ben Bernanke, former Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference)

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Biden and McCarthy locked in disagreement postponing negotiations

The Washington standoff over raising the debt ceiling has raised economic concerns on a global basis. A nonpartisan congressional report cited a "significant risk” of a historic default within the first two weeks of June. A report by the U.S. Congressional Budget Office confirmed statements by Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warning that a government default could come as early as June 1.

The debt limit meeting between President Joe Biden and top lawmakers which was scheduled for today has been postponed. The meeting has been rescheduled for early next week. The divide between both sides remains too large for any genuine progress to result from the meeting today. Rather staff on both sides will continue to negotiate through back channels to find common ground, as well as compromises that both the Democrats and Republicans are willing to consider.

According to Republican representative Daniel Webster, "Spending levels are the key… Spending cuts are a place where we are stuck. Not with all of them, but with a list of them.” President Biden's 2024 budget request relies on tax increases to reduce deficits while proposing to increase discretionary spending by 5% next year. That creates a $200 billion differential with House Republicans who believe an 8% budget cut is necessary while increasing the defense budget.

Concern over the potential for a U.S. default is global. At a meeting of the Group of Seven (G7) David Malpass President of the World Bank said that the "looming risk of a default, which would be the first in U.S. history, was adding to problems facing the slowing global economy”.

Although gold had fractional declines this week prices have been heavily supported by fears that no agreement will be reached by June 1 when the government will no longer be able to pay all its obligations.

As of 5:00 PM EDT Gold futures basis the most active June contract is currently fixed at $2015.60 after factoring in today's decline of $4.90 or 0.24%. Gold had a fractional decline when compared to last Friday's close as well as compared to Monday's open and current pricing. The most prominent factor taking gold lower this week was dollar strength. The U.S. dollar index opened at approximately 101 and is currently trading at its highest value this week of 102.5 a net gain of 1 ½% taking the dollar index to 102.54.

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold, silver hit by heightened recession worries

Gold prices are lower and silver prices sharply lower in midday U.S. dealings Thursday. Some fresh banking jitters and weaker U.S. economic data today have rekindled concerns about an economic recession being on the horizon. Gold and silver market bulls are somewhat frustrated their metals are not performing better due to safe-haven demand amid the keener marketplace uncertainty. However, at least on this day it appears metals traders are more focused on the bearish weaker consumer and commercial demand implications a U.S. and/or global recession would have on metals markets. June gold was last down $17.10 at $2,020.10 and July silver was down $1.283 at $24.37.

Today’s producer price index report for April came in at up 0.2%, versus expectations for up 0.3% from March, and compares to a drop of 0.5% in the March report, month-on-month. Gold prices initially were given a modest boost after the tamer PPI print.

However, the weekly U.S. jobless claims report showed claims jumped higher than expected in the latest week, at up 264,000 versus the forecast rise of 245,000. That report, combined with PacWest bank shares dropping sharply after reports that deposits dropped 9.5% last week, unsettled the marketplace and reignited recession fears. The U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasuries saw better demand today, on safe-haven bids. Still, it’s my bias that gold and silver will see better safe-haven demand if the banking turmoil heats up in the near term.

Global stock markets were mostly firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. Traders and investors are still monitoring the U.S. debt-limit-extension rhetoric coming from lawmakers. President Biden meets with congressional leaders again Friday, after little progress was made in a meeting earlier this week. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen said it’s doubtful the Biden administration could avoid a government default without Congress agreeing on a plan to deal with the debt matter.

The Bank of England met Thursday on its monetary policy, with the BOE raising its main interest rate by 0.25%, as expected.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index solidly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $71.50 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.3%–down following the PPI and jobless claims data.

Technically, June gold futures bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the record high of $2,085.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,980.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,047.60 and then at this week’s high of $2,056.00. First support is seen at $2,007.00 and then at $2,000.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

July silver futures prices hit a five-week low today and bulls have faded. A price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. The silver bulls do still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April and May high of $26.435. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at $24.735 and then at $25.00. Next support is seen at $24.00 and then at $23.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

July N.Y. copper closed down 1,490 points at 369.20 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a 5.5-month low today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more power today. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 375.00 cents and then at 380.00 cents. First support is seen at 365.00 cents and then at 360.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold, silver sell off on profit taking; US PPI now in focus

Gold and silver prices are lower at midday Wednesday and have erased the modest gains seen in the immediate aftermath of a U.S. inflation report that was close to market expectations. Profit taking from the speculative futures traders is featured in both markets. June gold was last down $11.00 at $2,031.90 and July silver was down $0.343 at $25.555.

The U.S. data point of the week saw the April consumer price index come in at up 0.4% from March and up 4.9%, year-on-year. The CPI was expected to come in at up 0.4% from March and up 5.0%, year-on-year. CPI in March was up 5.0%, year-on-year. The April core CPI (excluding food and energy) was up 0.4% from March and up 5.5%, year-on-year, versus the forecast of up 5.5% and compares to up 5.6% in the March report. In the immediate aftermath of the CPI report the marketplace breathed a sigh of relief the inflation numbers did not come in hotter than expected. However, after digesting the data, overall, traders and investors reckoned the CPI data is a wash and probably does not alter the Federal Reserve's trajectory of its monetary policy. The marketplace is now focused on Thursday morning's U.S. producer price index report.

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday.

President Biden on Tuesday afternoon met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders to discuss raising or suspending the U.S. debt ceiling. No agreement was reached but the lawmakers and the president will meet again Friday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently said the U.S. government could run out of money by June 1 if the debt ceiling is not raised. As the month of May winds down and if no U.S. debt extension is agreed upon, general marketplace anxiety will ratchet up.

In other news, China is expanding its gold reserves and may be abandoning the U.S. dollar. Nigel Green of deVere Group says such may be occurring after news that China's gold reserves increased by 8.09 tons in April. Total gold stockpiles in China reached 2,076 tons after that nation added 120 tons in the five months through March. "Historically, China has been a major buyer of U.S. Treasuries, but this has seen a marked cooling off as Beijing swaps them out in favor of gold."

Gold is well supported at $2,000 but don't look for record highs before Q2 2024 – Commerzbank

Green said this strategic move will limit China's dependence on the U.S. dollar, as trade and political relations with the U.S. deteriorate. "Buying gold rather than dollars may also signal moves by China that it is eventually seeking to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. Building stocks of the precious metal and allowing the Chinese yuan to be traded freely would weaken the U.S. dollar's dominance as the global reserve currency."

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $73.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.462% and dipped a bit after the CPI report.

Technically, June gold futures bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the record high of $2,085.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,980.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,056.00 and then at $2,063.40. First support is seen at this week's low of $2,022.00 and then at $2,007.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

July silver futures prices were scoring a bearish "outside day" down. The silver bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $24.00. First resistance is seen at $26.00 and then at the April high of $26.435. Next support is seen at today's low of $25.455 and then at $25.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

July N.Y. copper closed down 710 points at 383.05 cents today. Prices closed near the session low. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 408.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of 372.45 cents. First resistance is seen at 390.00 cents and then at this week's high of 395.95 cents. First support is seen at the April low of 381.65 cents and then at 380.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold, silver traders tread water ahead of U.S. debt talks, CPI

Comex gold and silver futures prices are not straying too far from unchanged levels at midday Tuesday. Precious metals traders are very tentative ahead of important government and economic developments in the U.S. that will soon come into play for the marketplace. June gold was last up $0.80 at $2,034.00 and July silver was down $0.059 at $25.775.

President Biden later today meets with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders to discuss raising or suspending the U.S. debt ceiling. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers last week the U.S. could default on its debt as early as June 1 if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time. No progress at today’s meeting would likely cause at least a bit of marketplace anxiety.

The U.S. data point of the week is Wednesday morning’s April consumer price index report, which is expected to come in at up 5.0%, year-on-year, which would be the same as reported in the March CPI. The April core CPI is forecast up 5.5% versus up 5.6% in the March report. A Federal Reserve banking lender survey released Monday showed bankers have curtailed loans to customers, which is likely to help tame inflation.

Gold's recent push near all-time highs was just a test run as Citigroup's Morse sees prices hitting $2,400

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday. Trading has turned choppy and sideways in the stock indexes.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $72.00 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.52%.

Technically, June gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 2.5-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the record high of $2,085.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,980.00. First resistance is seen at $2,050.00 and then at $2,063.40. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2,022.00 and then at last Friday’s low of $2,007.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0

July silver futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $27.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $24.00. First resistance is seen at $26.00 and then at the April high of $26.435. Next support is seen at today’s low of $25.57 and then at $25.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

July N.Y. copper closed down 345 points at 389.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 408.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the January low of 372.45 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 395.95 cents and then at last week’s high of 400.50 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 387.65 cents and then at the April low of 381.65 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold price settles above $2,020 as Yellen warns of ‘constitutional crisis’ if debt cap not raised

With the chance of a U.S. default in a matter of weeks, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warned that if the debt ceiling is not lifted, it could trigger a "constitutional crisis."

"It's Congress's job to do this. If they fail to do it, we will have an economic and financial catastrophe that will be of our own making," Yellen told ABC on Sunday. "And we should not get to the point where we need to consider whether the president can go on issuing debt. This would be a constitutional crisis."

The debt cap negotiations should not be done "with a gun to the head of the American people," Yellen added.

The latest message comes ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden's Tuesday meeting with Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and top congressional Democrats to discuss the debt issue.

"The meeting between President Biden and Republican leaders on Tuesday to discuss the U.S. debt ceiling will be closely watched. We think that political talks will go on for some time before an agreement to raise the debt ceiling is finally reached, which could weigh on risk appetite," Capital Economics commodity economists said.

Negotiations are currently at an impasse after the Republican-led House of Representatives passed a bill in April that would raise the debt ceiling conditional on extensive spending cuts, which Biden is against.

The federal government reached the cap on borrowing back in January. Since then, the Treasury has employed "extraordinary measures" to pay the bills.

Last week, Yellen told Congress that the U.S. could run out of money by June 1. "After reviewing recent federal tax receipts, our best estimate is that we will be unable to continue to satisfy all of the government's obligations by early June, and potentially as early as June 1, if Congress does not raise or suspend the debt limit before that time," Yellen wrote in a letter to House Speaker Kevin McCarthy.

Uncertainty over the debt ceiling has been one of gold's drivers during the past month. "Gold and silver prices rose, which can only be explained by safe-haven demand in a week when another U.S. bank failed and concerns mounted about the approach of the U.S. debt ceiling," economists at Capital Economics said. "We suspect that the gold price will remain elevated while concerns about the banking sector and debt ceiling persist."

On Monday, gold hit a daily high of $2,037.10 an ounce, with June Comex gold futures last trading at $2,028.00, up 0.16% on the day.

"Gold looks like it wants to make another run towards record territory. Too many recessionary risks are on the table for gold to see a significant pullback," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya said.

Analysts expect negotiations over the debt ceiling to get right down to the wire but ultimately avoid a default. In the meantime, volatility remains the name of the game, said ABN AMRO senior U.S. economist Bill Diviney.

"Financial markets are likely to become increasingly sensitive to developments over the coming weeks as the U.S. Treasury runs down its cash buffers," Diviney said Monday. "Similar to the 2011 debt ceiling impasse, the government is divided along partisan lines, with Democrats controlling the presidency and the Senate, and Republicans controlling the House."

To learn more about how gold behaved during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis, click here.

A default scenario, something that most analysts are ruling out, will have profound negative implications for the U.S. economy.

"A technical default – one that involves the government missing coupon payments and therefore triggering credit default swaps – is highly unlikely. Should the Treasury run out of cash, we expect it to prioritise bond coupon payments over other financial commitments, even if that means swingeing cuts to spending and a partial government shutdown," Diviney said. "However, the longer this were to go on for, the negative impact on financial markets and on the economy would become increasingly non-linear."

One major negative effect would be bond yields falling, with demand for safe havens offsetting higher risk premium effects, Diviney added. "This happened during the 2011 debt ceiling impasse when S&P downgraded the U.S. sovereign from AAA to AA+," he said.

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

News Bites The U.S. and China are on ‘brink of war’ as gold touches record highs and banking sector troubles intensify

News Bites

The U.S. and China are on 'brink of war' as gold touches record highs and banking sector troubles intensify

Gold's price action was defined by major volatility this week. Gold Comex futures tested record highs as the banking sector troubles intensified. Markets also dissected Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's messaging, while Friday's stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report weighed on gold.

Here's a look at Kitco's top three stories of the week:

3. Comex gold prices test record highs and touch $2,085 an ounce.

2. There's a new U.S. debt ceiling deadline.

1. Ray Dalio: The U.S. and China are on 'the brink of an economic resources war'

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold price to keep trading at historically high levels as markets monitor debt ceiling debate and credit conditions – analysts

Concerns about credit conditions and the debt ceiling debate will keep gold prices at historically elevated levels for the next few months, according to analysts.

The gold market retreated Friday as the banking fears subsided and the U.S. April employment report came in better than expected.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell back to a 53-year low of 3.4%, while the economy added 253,000 jobs last month.

"The employment market is showing clear resilience despite the drastic increase to U.S. interest rates over the last year and this resilience is going to afford Fed policymakers patie

Gold price to keep trading at historically high levels as markets monitor debt ceiling debate and credit conditions – analysts

Concerns about credit conditions and the debt ceiling debate will keep gold prices at historically elevated levels for the next few months, according to analysts.

The gold market retreated Friday as the banking fears subsided and the U.S. April employment report came in better than expected.

The U.S. unemployment rate fell back to a 53-year low of 3.4%, while the economy added 253,000 jobs last month.

"The employment market is showing clear resilience despite the drastic increase to U.S. interest rates over the last year and this resilience is going to afford Fed policymakers patience to ultimately continue to watch economic data before making any decisions over the narrative on the future monetary policy outlook," said CompareBroker.io chief analyst Jameel Ahmad.

June Comex gold futures were last at $2,024.30 an ounce, down 1.3% on the day. This came after Comex prices tested record highs of $2,085.40 earlier in the week.

"Banking worries seem to have disappeared today. But that is a story that is not going away any time soon," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. "Overall, risks are to still elevated, credit conditions will continue to tighten. And with U.S. President Joe Biden meeting for debt ceiling talks. The risks will return."

The gold market won't face any serious obstacles until the debt ceiling issue and the banking sector turmoil are resolved, said Capital Economics commodities economist Edward Gardner.

"Concern about banks and the U.S. debt ceiling will keep the gold price historically high in the next few months. However, once these worries fade, we think that longer-term headwinds will come into play," Gardner said Friday. "Our new indicator of financial stress in advanced economies indicates that the gold price is benefiting from safe-haven demand related to banking troubles."

Washington is currently at a stalemate on the U.S. debt ceiling increase, which increases the risk of a default by June 1.

RBC Wealth Management warned this week that this year's political and economic backdrop is "one of the most challenging."

The last time the debt ceiling really shook markets was in 2011, and there are some parallels to be drawn between then and now.

"In 2011, the U.S. reached its debt ceiling on 16th May and, after much political wrangling, passed legislation to raise it on 1st August. On that date, the gold price was up by 9% month on month, which was probably in part due to U.S. government finance concerns. These same concerns have, of course, recently resurfaced," Gardner.

These issues might plague markets for the next few months, which will keep gold around the $2,000 level, according to Capital Economics.

Capturing record highs again in the short term might be challenging, but gold will likely get there again, Moya said.

"Inflation will prove to be sticky, which will justify the Fed maintaining a higher for longer stance. But the outlook for gold is bullish. Do we recapture record high? There is a good case to be made that eventually, we will."

Gold's key support is currently at $1,990, and the first resistance could be at $2,040 an ounce.

"The Fed is done for now. June meeting is likely to be a pause. Gold's key drivers will be the debt ceiling, banking concerns, and recession risks," Moya said.

Next week's data

Wednesday: U.S. CPI

Thursday: Bank of England rate decision, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. PPI

Friday: Michigan consumer sentiment

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold flirts with a record high after three days of consecutive gains

Gold futures have traded almost $100 higher from Tuesday's open to today's intraday high. Gold opened at approximately $1990 on Tuesday and closed at approximately $2022 after factoring in a daily gain of over $30. Yesterday gold had a moderate gain moving the most active June contract to an intraday high of $2049 and closing at approximately $2037.

However, today's range was the largest of the last 3 days trading to a low of $2038.50 and a high of $2085.40. As of 5:50 PM EDT most active June Comex gold contract is fixed at $2058.60 after factoring in a gain of $21.60 gaining just over 1%.

The Federal Reserve raised rates by ¼% yesterday, taking its benchmark Fed funds rate to its highest level since 2008. In fourteen months, the Fed has raised rates a total of ten times, once at every FOMC meeting since March 2022.

The Fed has taken its benchmark rate from near zero to between 5% and 5 ¼ %. More importantly, the Fed indicated it is ready to pause raising rates as it gauges the net effect of the rate hikes already implemented.

According to the CME's FedWatch tool, there is a 79.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will pause at its June FOMC meeting and maintain its current benchmark rate between 5% and 5 ¼%. However, more startling is the probability of 20.5% that the Federal Reserve will implement an interest rate cut of ¼%. This goes against the strong narrative and resolve that the Fed has maintained since the release of the December 2022 "Dot Plot".

Pausing rate hikes at the next FOMC meeting is an extremely logical move for the Federal Reserve. This will allow the Fed to assess the damage from recent bank failures, and gauge inflationary levels which will lag behind rate hikes already implemented by the Federal Reserve. A pause would also allow the Fed to wait for a resolution over the US debt ceiling dilemma.

The chart above is a weekly chart of the continuous contract of gold futures. The horizontal line is placed at the record high. The most likely outcome of this rally will be that the triple top will be taken out and result in a new record high for the price of gold.

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold gains traction as Fed hints at a pause after raising rates Â¼%

Gold gains traction as Fed hints at a pause after raising rates ¼%

The Federal Reserve concluded this month's FOMC meeting and as expected the Fed raised its terminal rate by ¼%. This takes the Fed benchmark rate to between 5% and 5 ¼%. Most importantly, after 10 consecutive rate hikes the Fed signaled that they may finally enact a pause of further rate increases at the next FOMC meeting in June.

This would allow the Federal Reserve to assess the damage from recent bank failures, and gauge inflationary levels which will lag behind rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. A pause would also allow the Fed to wait for a resolution over the US debt ceiling dilemma.

The rate hikes enacted by the Federal Reserve have definitively taken inflation down, it has also caused tremendous fallout. Continued rate hikes not only would have a detrimental effect on the economy but it would also have less of an effect on reducing inflation. Inflation has hit an area in which many sectors remain persistent or sticky and as such continued rate hikes would not have the intended effect of reducing inflation but would have the unintended effect of causing more harm to the financial system.

Gold futures broke out of their defined trading range between $1980 and $2020 yesterday. On a technical basis, prices were stuck inside of an asymmetrical triangle with a descending upper resistance line and a flat bottom. Yesterday's strong upside move took current gold futures pricing well above the upper-level resistance line. This resistance line proved to be definitive support as gold traded to a low of $2016 today which is precisely above the former resistance line which I now believe will act as a technical level of support.

The chart above is a 240-minute Japanese candlestick chart of June gold futures. It clearly illustrates both the flat bottom that is defined by multiple occasions in which gold traded to $1980 but close well above it. It also illustrates that gold has traded with a series of lower highs up until yesterday's breakout which took gold above its former resistance level.

As of 4:50 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active June contract is up $25.10 and fixed at $2048.50.

Concerns about the banking crisis and the debt-ceiling remain unanswered

Now that the Federal Reserve has concluded this month's FOMC meeting, market participants will focus intensely on two major events that could lead to tremendous economic upheaval. There continues to be angst about the political standoff between the Democratic and Republican legislators regarding raising the debt ceiling. The fact that the government will not be able to meet its obligations much sooner than anticipated earlier is troublesome. More importantly, the divide between the Democrats and Republicans has never been wider which will make it very difficult for a compromise to be reached. As I've said over the last two days, during other instances where the debt ceiling had to be raised legislators played “kick the can down the road" however in this instance with so little time left to resolve the issue it seems are “playing a game of chicken".

Lastly, the banking crisis continues to be extremely worrisome as the possibility of more banks becoming insolvent remains. Collectively, the debt crisis remaining unresolved and the potential for more banks to become insolvent will have an exceedingly detrimental effect on the economy. These factors will continue to be highly supportive of gold moving higher.

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David