Gold sharply up as USDX, U.S. bond yields plummet after cooler CPI

Gold and silver prices are solidly higher in midday U.S. trading Thursday, with gold scoring a 2.5-month high and silver a 4.5-month high, following a U.S. inflation report that came in just a bit cooler than market expectations and in turn pushed the U.S. dollar index and U.S. Treasury yields sharply lower. December gold was last up $38.60 at $1,737.90 and December silver was up $0.323 at $21.66.

The U.S. consumer price index report for October came in up 7.7%, year-on-year, versus expectations for a rise of 7.9%, year-on-year, and compares to the 8.2% rise seen in the September report. This report may be the most important data point of the month, if not the quarter. A slightly cooler reading in the CPI print may influence the Federal Reserve"s decision-making process ahead of its December FOMC meeting. The Wall Street Journal is reporting the Fed is likely to raise its Fed funds rate by 0.5% in December, following a string of 0.75% increases at past FOMC meetings.

The U.S. stock indexes soared on the cooler CPI print, with Bitcoin also posting solid gains after the report. However, the crypto currency markets remain in turmoil late this week, with fears of a contagion effect and more illiquidity in the cryptos. Broker SP Angel this morning reports in an email dispatch: A proposed takeover of likely insolvent FTX crypto exchange by rival Binance is set to fail, sending Bitcoin down 26% this week and triggering concerns of wider market contagion. FTX exchange, whose founder Sam Bankman-Fried (likened to John Pierpont Morgan during the banking crisis of 1907), is looking for support for a reported $8 billion debt shortfall. The exchange"s insolvency has triggered a further step down in crypto market values, with the total crypto market cap standing at $914 billion, down from over $3 trillion in November 2021. JP Morgan are reporting crypto market participants are facing a "cascade" of margin calls, although it is unclear whether this will feed into wider equity markets.

 Gold and manipulation: The Ultimate Gold Panel with Frank Giustra & Rick Rule

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index sharply down and hit a two-month low after the cooler CPI. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $87.25 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 3.852% and has fallen sharply in the wake of the cooler CPI report.

Technically, December gold futures prices hit a 2.5-month high today. The gold futures bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Bulls have momentum as a price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Prices this week have also seen a bullish upside breakout from a trading range, to suggest still more upside in the near term. Bulls" next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,618.30. First resistance is seen at today"s high of $1,757.20 and then at $1,775.00. First support is seen at $1,738.70 and then at $1,725.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December silver futures prices hit a 4.5-month high today. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. Prices are in a choppy nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $20.00. First resistance is seen at today"s high of $21.94 and then at $22.50. Next support is seen at $21.00 and then at this week"s low of $20.435. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 720 points at 377.15 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a four-month high today. The copper bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 330.30 cents. First resistance is seen at 380.00 cents and then at 390.00 cents. First support is seen at today"s low of 362.85 cents and then at this week"s low of 356.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold price surges $50, should investors be selling into the rally?

Gold prices surged nearly $50 on Friday as the latest U.S. jobs report clarified some of the Federal Reserve's mixed messages, and China signaled a possible easing of its Covid-Zero policy. But caution is still advised as all previous quick rallies have been used as selling opportunities.

Gold has had a spectacular start to November after reporting the longest streak of monthly losses in more than five decades.

The news-filled week led to confusion in the marketplace after the Fed raised rates by 75 basis points for the fourth time in a row.

On the dovish end of things, Powell said that the U.S. central bank is now paying close attention to "the cumulative tightening" and potential "lags" with which monetary policy affects inflation and economic activity.

But on the hawkish side, the Fed chair stressed that the "ultimate level" of rates will need to be higher than previously expected and added that the window for a soft landing has "narrowed."

Things looked up for gold on Friday morning when the October U.S. jobs report showed the unemployment rate rising to 3.7% despite the higher-than-expected job gains.

"This report shows that the labor market is cooling, and that is good news. Gold is surging as the dollar is having its worst day since March 2020," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. "The market now believes that the Fed has got a good handle on things and could go at a slower pace."

But a slowdown in the pace of rate hikes does not mean that the Fed won't go higher. "Markets are starting to price in the Fed going to 5.25%, and 2-year yield is nowhere near that," Moya said.

Following the news, the 2-year Treasury yield rose more than 50 basis points and pushed above the 10-year yield — a key recession gauge that is now sitting near 40-year highs.

"The market is thinking that the economy is slowing down, and that is reflected in the yield curve here, with the 2-year and the 10-year," TD Securities global head of commodity markets strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News.

But that is not even the whole picture. Market expectations of China easing up on its Covid-Zero policy also pushed gold higher. "We are getting speculation that China will lift those Covid-Zero restrictions or at least ease up on them, which is rallying the entire market," Melek said.

Views on the rally

Despite the stellar performance on Friday, many analysts don't believe this rally will last, as the longer-term trend for gold has been bearish.

"This is most likely a short squeeze type of rally that should be sold here," Melek said. "It's too early for gold to move up. The Fed is not finished yet."

TD Securities is projecting for gold to fall below $1,600 in the next few months as it sees the federal funds rate peaking at 5.5% instead of the previous projections of below 5%. "As the economy slows, you will start seeing real rates jump. And central banks won't be buying as much gold as they did this last quarter. The cost of carrying will be expensive," Melek added.

Every time gold has rallied recently, selling came into the market, Phoenix Futures and Options president Kevin Grady told Kitco News. "We saw a lot of people getting out of gold earlier, and this is a short-covering rally. Gold is still going to have a tough time," he said.

All eyes are now on gold's "pivotal level," which is at around $1,685 an ounce. "This is the high end of the range we've been stuck in," said RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly. "We'll probably see a rejection of this rally."

At the time of writing, December Comex gold futures were trading at $1,676.40, up 2.79% on the day.

Cholly advised getting out of long positions and taking some profits before the dollar strength came back. But if gold moves above the $1,685 an ounce level, then the outlook changes. "If we are above $1,685, then I'll rethink that strategy," he told Kitco News.

Whether or not gold can get above the next key resistance level and then move to $1,700 an ounce will depend on next week's inflation data. If the data shows price pressures coming down, gold could move up into that territory, said Moya. But a hotter-than-expected number would set a bearish tone.

Market consensus calls are looking for the October CPI number to slow to 8% from September's 8.2%.

Next week's data to watch

Thursday: U.S. CPI, jobless claims

Friday: Michigan consumer sentiment
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold price sharply up after "Goldilocks" U.S. jobs report

Gold and silver prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading Friday, boosted by a U.S. jobs report that landed in the sweet spot of marketplace expectations for the report. Silver prices notched a three-week high. Strong gains in crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar index are also bullish outside market forces for the metals on this day. Short covering by futures traders is featured in both precious metals markets to end the trading week. December gold was last up $28.40 at $1,659.60 and December silver was up $0.785 at $20.22.

The just-released monthly U.S. employment report for October from the Labor Department showed the key non-farm payrolls number up 261,000, which was above the expected rise of 205,000 and compares to the gain of 263,000 seen in the September report. Gold prices added to their solid overnight gains after the release of the report, as analysis are saying this is a Goldilocks report that is "not too hot and not too cold"—meaning it is not too strong to prompt the Federal Reserve to become more aggressive in tightening its monetary policy, nor is it too weak to cause more concern about a U.S. economic recession.

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for higher openings when the New York day session begins, on corrective bounces from the selling pressure seen the past three sessions, and on the U.S. job report numbers landing in the "sweet spot" of the marketplace expectations.

In overnight news, the Euro zone September producer price index came in at up 41.9%, year-on-year, which was near expectations. Soaring energy costs in Europe are driving the PPI sharply up.

Gold price to trade at $1,700 next year as Fed, dollar outlooks shift, says Capital Economics

The silver market bulls have outperformed gold bulls recently. One reason may be rising demand for India. Broker SP Angel today said in an email dispatch: "Silver India's insatiable appetite for silver eats into global warehouse inventories. Analysts expect Indian silver consumption to haveincreased over 80% this year. Indian silver buying was hit hard over the two covid years but 2022 purchases have seen a major jump in demand. Traders are reporting London and Hong Kong warehouse inventory levels, as pent-up demand feeds into the market."

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower on a corrective pullback from strong gains Thursday. Nymex crude oil prices are sharply higher and trading around $91.50 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding around 4.2%.

Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the global services purchasing managers' index.

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Technically, the gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1,673.10 and then at $1,679.40. First support is seen at $1,650.00 and then at the overnight low of $1,631.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

The silver bulls have regained the overall near-term technical advantage. A choppy uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $21.31. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $18.00. First resistance is seen at $20.50 and then at $21.00. Next support is seen at $20.00 and then at the overnight low of $19.425. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold, silver down amid strong greenback, rising bond yields

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Thursday, with gold hitting a six-week low in overnight dealings. Silver prices have rebounded well off daily lows. Very sharp gains in the U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields, along with lower crude oil prices, pressured the precious metals markets today. December gold was last down $22.20 at $1,627.80 and December silver was down $0.239 at $19.36.

A still-hawkish Federal Reserve is keeping the metals market bulls squelched. The Fed's Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement Wednesday afternoon initially was viewed as less hawkish. The U.S. central bank raised its main Fed funds rate by 0.75%, to 4.0%, as expected. The FOMC statement said the Fed will take into consideration the health of the U.S. economy after its recent "cumulative tightening." The markets initially read that statement as leaning less hawkish on U.S. monetary policy going forward. The U.S. dollar index sold off and U.S. Treasury yields dropped, while U.S. stock indexes and gold rallied. However, once Fed Chairman Powell started speaking at his press conference and took a still-hard line on the Fed's intent to keep raising rates to stop problematic price inflation, the aforementioned markets promptly reversed course. "Powell dropped the hammer," quipped one business TV anchor. Powell in his presser implied the Fed's terminal interest rate may have to rise higher than earlier Fed expectations—likely above 5%–and stay at that higher level for longer. Notions of a Fed pivot on its aggressive monetary policy tightening were dashed at Powell's presser. More hawkish central banks and in turn weaker economies also suggest less consumer and commercial demand for the metals.

Expect a '75 bps hike,' as Powell zeroes in on inflation – Chance Finucane

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday. Risk-off attitudes are keener in the marketplace late this week.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index very sharply higher. Nymex crude oil prices are lower and trading around $89.00 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.149%.

Focus quickly turns to Friday's monthly U.S. employment report for October from the Labor Department. The key non-farm payrolls number is expected to come in at up 205,000, compared to a rise of 263,000 in the September report.

Technically, the gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a longer-term downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,643.20 and then at $1,650.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,618.30 and then at $1,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

The silver bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a choppy two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $21.31. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $18.00. First resistance is seen at $19.60 and then at this week's high of $20.11. Next support is seen at $19.00 and then at today's low of $18.805. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 385 points at 342.95 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 324.30 cents. First resistance is seen at this week's high of 350.85 cents and then at the October high of 359.30 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 336.15 and then at the October low of 330.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold prices move near session highs as Federal Reserve raises interest rates 75 basis points

The gold market is seeing some new buying momentum as the Federal Reserve looks to slightly adjust its aggressive monetary policy stance.

In a widely anticipated move, the Federal Reserve raised its Fed Funds rate by 75 basis points. This is the fourth consecutive supersized rate hike this year. While the central bank remains focused on bringing inflation down, it does appear to be adjusting its stance.

"The Committee anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time. In determining the pace of future increases in the target range, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.

Analysts and economists expected the Federal Reserve to signal a slowdown in its tightening cycle in December and through the early part of 2023

December gold futures last traded at $1,661.70 an ounce, up 0.77% on the day. "The market read that statement as leaning less hawkish on U.S. monetary policy going forward," said Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst at Kitco.com.

Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC, said that the more nuanced messaging in the statement gives the central bank a platform to slow the pace of rate hikes. However, she added that terminal rate expectations remain in place.

"Today's statement is still consistent with the median dot plot projections released back in September, which showed rates reaching 4.25-4.50% by year end (i.e. a further 50bp hike in December), and between 4.50-4.75% next year," she said in a note. "Our own forecast doesn't include that final 25bp hike in 2023, as we expect to see evidence that GDP and employment growth is slowing more than the Fed previously anticipated by then."

Some economists note that the Federal Reserve still sees resilient strength and high inflation in the economy. The Fed reiterated its stance that it is committed to brining inflation back down to its 2% objective.

"Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher food and energy prices, and broader price pressures," the statement said. "The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks."

Paul Ashworth, Chief North America Economist at Capital Economics, said that with interest rates in restrictive territory the U.S. central bank has room to slow the pace of its tightening.

“Barring another upside inflation surprise in the October and November CPI reports, which we can’t completely rule out, it looks like the Fed is laying the groundwork to shift down to a 50bp hike in December and, if we’re right that core inflation will start to show signs of slowing soon, a 25bp rate hike at the January meeting next year,” he said.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold – Caution still warranted

The bear market rally currently transpiring in stocks has momentum on its side, with the upper range target at the cross-section between the upper resistance line and the 50-week moving average as the standing target. The below chart is an update of the S&P futures chart on a weekly basis; note the stochastic RSI looks like it wants to reach all the way to overbought as well.

Although Thursday’s action in gold looked constructive for a close over $1650 into the end of week, the opposite occurred when sellers knocked gold down $20 on the spot. The below weekly chart shows the importance of the $1650-85 range (highlighted in yellow). Gold bulls really want to see prices bottom out and make a run that can hold up. If the yellow highlighted area becomes firm as resistance after having served as support over the past two years, bulls will be in for a lower-priced opportunity as the door to $1,535 opens up.

Traders in metals derivatives might strongly consider taking out some downside insurance in this environment.

By Jonathan Da Silva

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Price pressure on gold, silver as USDX, bond yields rebound

Gold and silver prices are moderately down in early U.S. trading Friday, once again falling victim to a higher U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields to end the trading week. December gold was last down $10.90 at $1,654.60 and December silver was down $0.199 at $19.29.

The geopolitical front is far from calm at present. However, there have been no major, new developments to shake up the marketplace. Thus, precious metals traders have recently been focusing mainly on the key outside markets for daily price direction. Next week’s Federal Reserve FOMC meeting will give traders and investors some fresh, major fundamental news to digest.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are headed for weaker openings when the New York day session begins. The stock index bulls have been rattled late this week amid downbeat earnings reports from the technology sector, including Meta, whose stock price lost around one-fourth of its value Thursday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $88.25 a barrel. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note is yielding 4.004%.

U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes personal income and outlays, the employment cost index, pending home sales and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.

Technically, the gold futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, more upside price action in the near term would form a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern that would suggest a major market bottom is in place. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,670.90 and then at this week’s high of $1,679.40. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,649.50 and then at this week’s low of $1,641.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, recent price action suggests a market bottom is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $21.31. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $17.40. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $19.62 and then at this week’s high of $19.765. Next support is seen at today’s low of $19.105 and then at $19.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold market sees muddle sentiment, but price needs to hold above $1,620 next week

Once again, gold is poised on a knife's edge as the prices end the week below $1,650 an ounce, and muddled market sentiment is unlikely to provide any clear direction for the precious metal next week.

Latest Kitco News Gold Survey shows that bullish analysts and retail investors have a slight advantage; however, there is no dominant conviction in the marketplace.

According to some analysts, many investors continue to sit on the sidelines, waiting for a clear indication that the Federal Reserve will slow the pace of its aggressive rate hikes by the end of the year. According to analysts, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting on Nov. 2 will be the driving force behind gold prices next week.

For most of the summer, investors have been continuously burned after chasing rumors that the Federal Reserve was close to pivoting. Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said that he expects current market expectations to fade, similar to other market rumors. Lusk said he is expecting to see lower gold prices next week.

"Until we get clarity from the Federal Reserve, gold rallies will continue to be sold," he said. "I don't think we will get much clarity from the Fed next week. There is a cost to all money printing we have seen over the last two years, and we should expect to feel the cost longer than most expect."

Lusk added that he will be watching the $1,620 area closely. A break below would trigger a very bearish signal.

Kitco's weekly gold survey results revealed that Wall Street has a slightly bullish tilt on gold prices next week. Out of 17 analysts participating in the survey, seven analysts, or 41%, expect prices to rise next week. Meanwhile, six analysts, or 35%, were bearish in the near term and four analysts, or 24%, were neutral on gold.

Sentiment on Main Street was relatively similar. This week 473 respondents took part in online polls. A total of 200 voters, or 43%, called for gold to rise. Another 169, or 37%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 94 voters, or 20%, called for a sideways market.

Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line futures, said that he remains neutral on gold in the near term as the Federal Reserve's rate hikes will continue to weigh on the precious metal.

"There is nothing stopping gold from going below $1,600 an ounce in the near term, and that's not a bold statement," he said. "However, if gold does drop, I would be looking to buy small positions. I would be looking to buy silver if the price dropped below $18 an ounce.

World Bank sees gold prices falling another 4% in 2023

For most bullish analysts, the growing expectations that the Fed will slow its rate hikes starting in December will support prices in a volatile environment.

"Technically, it looks like gold is slowly turning the corner. Gold appears likely to be volatile around next Wednesday's Fed decision which could potentially impact the trend in the US Dollar depending on whether the Fed is more hawkish or more dovish than expected and relative to other central banks," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management.

Darin Newsom, president of Darin Newsom Analysis, is also expecting some volatility next week. However, he added that as long as gold can hold above its recent lows around $1,620 an ounce, then it will remain in an intermediate-term uptr

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David