Gold, silver prices pull back as U.S. dollar, bond yields see strong rises

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, on routine downside price corrections following solid gains posted on Monday and Tuesday. A strong rebound in the U.S. dollar index today, along with a significant rise in U.S. Treasury yields, are also bearish outside market elements working against the gold and silver markets at mid-week. December gold was last down $11.60 at $1,718.90 and December silver was down $0.649 at $20.455.

Gold prices down-ticked following the early morning release of a slightly stronger-than-expected U.S. ADP jobs report showing a gain of 208,000 in September. That compares to expectations for a rise of 200,000. Arguably the most important U.S. data point of the week, if not the month, is Friday's employment situation report for September from the Labor Department. The key non-farm jobs number is expected to come in at up 275,000. The August report showed a non-farm jobs rise of 315,000.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with European shares mostly weaker and Asian shares mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday, on routine corrective pullbacks after solid gains posted on Monday and Tuesday that were the largest two-day advance in over two years.

Said market analyst Craig Erlam of OANDA: "It's been a very impressive relief rally, albeit one aided by a rose-tinted interpretation of certain economic indicators and a terrible plunge in the weeks before. This isn't the time to get carried away but it is understandable that we're seeing some relief. It all hangs on whether the (recent economic) data is the start of a weakening trend or just a blip, as with the July inflation drop."

With so many gold and silver bears, it doesn't take much to trigger a short squeeze

In overnight news, New Zealand's central bank raised interest rates by 50 basis points, to 3.5%, and hinted of more to come, with policymakers even debating 75 basis points next time, as core inflation remains too high and labor resources are tight.

Today's OPEC+ meeting saw the cartel make a large crude oil output cut of 2 million barrels per day, in response to a weakening global economic outlook. The crude oil market saw no major reaction, as prices had been rallying in recent days on the expected OPEC cut.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index strongly higher. Nymex crude oil prices are higher and trading around $87.75 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching 3.78%.

Technically, December gold futures saw a routine corrective pullback. Prices hit a three-week high Tuesday. The gold futures bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, it appears a near-term market bottom is in place. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,778.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at this week's low of $1,666.50. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $1,738.70 and then at the September high of $1,746.40. First support is seen at today's low of $1,708.80 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

December silver futures also saw a routine corrective pullback after hitting a three-month high Tuesday. The silver bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at $21.00 and then at this week's high of $21.31. Next support is seen at $20.00 and then at $19.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 120 points at 350.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today and hit a nearly three-week high. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 354.50 cents and then at 360.00 cents. First support is seen at Tuesday's low of 340.20 cents and then at this week's low of 335.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Will this silver and gold price rally last? Here's what analysts are saying

In a surprise u-turn this week, silver and gold are trading at 3-month and 3-week highs, respectively. But is this a sustainable rally or just a short squeeze?

Even though silver has outperformed gold this week, both precious metals saw impressive performance. Some main drivers were a weaker U.S. dollar, falling U.S. Treasury yields, higher crude oil, and renewed safe-haven buying amid shifting Fed rate hike expectations and disappointing macro data.

"There have been vicious reversals in precious metals, with Gold +5%, Silver +14%, Platinum +9% and Palladium +11% the past five days," said MKS PAMP metals strategist Nicky Shiels. "Gold has essentially erased 1/4 of the downtrend channel worth $460 (from March '22 peak to its September tough), which started from its invasion/war peak price at $2,070/oz; silver has clawed back 2/5th (in 3 days!) of the same downtrend channel."

The United Nations also spoke up this week, urging the Federal Reserve and other central banks to ease up on rate hikes, warning that tighter monetary policies are pushing the global economy into a recession.

"There's still time to step back from the edge of recession," UNCTAD Secretary-General Rebeca Grynspan said. "But the current course of action is hurting the most vulnerable, especially in developing countries and risks tipping the world into a global recession."

Gold climbed around $65 this week, with December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,733.50 an ounce. And silver jumped about $2.25, with December silver futures last at $21.10.

This is an important technical turnaround for gold after six straight months of losses.

"Market speculation around the Fed adopting a less aggressive approach on rate hikes has also sweetened appetite for zero-yielding gold," said FXTM's senior research analyst Lukman Otunuga. "Looking at the technical picture, the breakout above $1,700 may open the doors towards $1,724 and $1,760, respectively. Should prices dip back under $1,700, the next key levels of support can be found at $1,680 and $1,655."

Also helping the precious metals was the reversal of U.K. governments tax plan and fears around Credit Suisse, noted Shiels.

"What is perhaps overlooked is that this massive reversal in risk assets, precious metals & bonds, all started when risk sentiment was max bearish when the BOE intervened to cap rates (last week). There is a growing acceptance that the BOE is not going to be the last central bank to cap rates, and eventually, the U.S. will follow suit," she wrote Tuesday.

However, some analysts are warning the price rally in precious metals is a temporary one – just a short squeeze after a build-up of short positions.

"We see gold losing steam and again drifting toward our target of $1,580/oz over the coming months, as the Fed continues to stick to its hawkish plan to move the Fed Funds above the 4.5% mark," said TD Securities head of commodity strategy Bart Melek. "As such, rates on the short end of the curve will very likely keep rising from current levels and should stay there for the balance of 2023 … Real rates, which are the key drivers of gold, will also rise even faster. This will increase the carry costs and opportunity cost relative to risk-free Treasuries."

The short-term direction will mostly depend on the employment report out of the U.S. this Friday. A higher-than-expected number of jobs added in September would trigger a more hawkish re-pricing of rate hike expectations and would weigh on gold.

"The U.S. domestic story remains rather solid, leaving the Fed tightening prospects alive even if markets have recently revised the expected terminal rate to sub 4.50% levels. We see Friday's payrolls report as a potential trigger for a fresh hawkish re-pricing, and a positive event for the dollar," said ING FX strategists Tuesday.

On the other hand, if the jobs report is weaker-than-expected, rate hike expectations would drop and favor higher precious metals prices.

"It is too early to say a Fed pivot is justified, but if we continue to see a couple sharp drops with job openings, that will wake up the doves in the FOMC," said OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya. "Gold's bottom is in place now that the U.S. is showing clear signs the labor market is softening. The key for gold will be the nonfarm payroll report. As long as we don't see an extraordinary strong print, gold should remain supported here and poised to test the $1,750 region."

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold prices push to $1,675 as U.S. core PCE rises 0.6% in August

Hotter-than-expected inflation data is providing some initial support for the gold market as prices retest the long-term support/resistance level at $1,675 an ounce.

Friday, U.S. Department of Commerce said its core Personal Consumption Expenditures price index increased 0.6% last month, up from July’s reading of 0.1%. Economists were expecting to see a 0.5% rise.

According to some economists, the rise in core inflation is an indication that rising consumer prices are becoming entrenched in the economy, which will provide further challenges for the Federal Reserve.

The gold market has seen a modest jump in initial reaction to the latest inflation data. December gold futures last traded at $1,675.70 an ounce, up 0.44% on the day.

The latest economic report also noted that consumers are once again spending more than they are earnings. Personal income in August rose 0.3%, in line with expectations; meanwhile, personal spending rose 0.4%. The data beat expectations as economists were forecasting a 0.2% increase.

According to some economists, consumes are being forced to spending more because of inflation.

Gold hasn’t been much of an inflation hedge through 2022 as higher consumer prices have forced the Federal Reserve to aggressive raise interest rates, which has pushed real yields into positive territory. However, some analysts have said that sentiment in the gold market could slowly be changing as the Fed’s monetary policy could be close to a breaking point

Massive volatility in global currency markets this week as been a signal for many investors that the surging momentum in the U.S. dollar, driven by the rising Fed Funds rate is causing problems for the global economy.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Can gold price put an end to its six-month losing streak? Prices are at 'critical juncture' – analysts

What gold does in the next two weeks will be critical for prices going into the year-end, according to analysts. All eyes are on the latest rounds of employment and inflation data as gold shows promising signs amid escalating geopolitical tensions and intensifying market volatility.

Gold saw a key development mid-week as prices rose from 2.5-year lows and headed towards the $1,700 an ounce level. At the time of writing, December Comex futures were trading at $1,673.70, up more than 1% on the week but down for the sixth month in a row.

"On Wednesday, gold had a key reversal. We made a new swing from the lows and ended up with a higher close. We had some follow-through Thursday and Friday. Looking at the gold chart, this is very positive. We go from a short-term trend down to sideways and up now," RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News.

If the gold market can get back above $1,700, the uptrend will be achieved, and a run to $1,740 would be possible, Cholly added.

Before this week, gold technicals were very negative, especially following a drop below $1,680. A steeper decline below $1,600 could have opened the door to a more significant selloff down to $1,290, said DailyFX strategist Michael Boutros.

"The technicals were very gloomy here," Boutros told Kitco News. "If gold prices are able to get above $1,706, we can dispel this downside break."

But the move higher needs to happen within the next two weeks. Otherwise, the downward trend will take over. "What happens in the next two weeks in price is paramount. The extraordinary speed and magnitude of Fed rate hikes put heavy pressure on gold," Boutros noted.
 

Geopolitical tensions could be one short-term driver that gets gold above $1,700. The latest development saw Russia annex four regions in south-eastern Ukraine, promising to use all means necessary to defend the territory.

"If escalation in Russia does start to mount the concern of real possible nuclear threat," that would be positive for gold, added Boutros.

However, it is essential to remember that any geopolitical gains in gold are likely only temporary, said TD Securities global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek. "Any time there is an increase in geopolitical risk, there is at least a temporary upside," he said.

But considering the monetary policy situation, it will be hard to shift gold's overall bearish trend.

"Ultimately, the U.S. dollar continues to be strong. The outlook hasn't changed. The Fed will continue to raise rates. And we'll have the Bank of England doing pretty aggressive tightening as well," Melek pointed out.

UK's market chaos, contagion risk: what it all means for gold price

Employment and inflation data

Gold's near-term direction will largely depend on the employment and inflation data released in the first two weeks of October.

"I don't see a breakout in gold until we see the employment and inflation numbers. If CPI or employment is stronger than expected, that is a negative for gold. It suggests that the Fed would be more likely to continue hiking as per its 4.6% outline in the dot plot. High inflation would also mean that market could price in something more aggressive down the road," Melek described.

Market consensus calls estimate the employment report to show the economy adding 250,000 positions in September and the unemployment rate remaining near 50-year lows at 3.7%.
 

The annual inflation number is expected to come at 8.1% in September after posting 8.3% in August.
 

Next week's data

Monday: U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI

Wednesday: U.S. ADP nonfarm employment, ISM non-manufacturing

Thursday: U.S. jobless claims

Friday: U.S. nonfarm payrolls
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold/Silver – Use options to play a short covering rally

What a volatile week it's been with the month and quarter ending after a downgrade of Apple stock sent retail stock investors scrambling for the exit signs and the British Pound falling to a record low against the Dollar. The U.K. government presented a fiscal spending plan that could put the next round of U.K. inflation through the roof. At the same time, the Bank of England admitted its first policy mistake and is in a state of "panic" that requires the need to deliver 175-200 bps in rate hikes over the next two meetings. Bringing it back to the U.S., Fed Fund futures are pricing in a 50/50 chance of another 50 or 75 bps rate hike at the next Fed meeting. That leaves traders wondering how long before the Fed admits its policy mistake of tightening too far into a recession.

The aggressive tightening of monetary policy in the U.S. has created a strong bid under the U.S. Dollar that will keep pressure on Gold and Silver for the time being. Unfortunately for precious metals bulls, the labor market's strength is the glue that holds the Fed's foot firmly on the rate hike pedal. The only thing that can stop the Fed is both inflation and the labor market showing signs of cooling, which could provide a sharp setback in the Dollar, leaving way for a massive precious metal short-covering rally

How to play these markets?

I cannot reiterate enough that there is a possibility that the Fed will continue to tighten while all of Europe lags in its efforts. However, if the Fed pivots, a short covering rally could unfold. I have found that it is best to use a calculated risk Options strategy in deeply oversold markets that haven't solidified a technical bottom. An options bull call spread is a trading strategy aiming to capitalize on an increase in a given market or asset during times of high volatility or for counter-trend trades. The option strategy consists of two call options that create a range that outlines a lower strike point and an upper strike point. The bullish call spread strategy helps to cap your max loss if the price of an asset drops. However, the strategy also limits the potential gains in case of a price increase. Bullish investors often use this when trading futures as a calculated risk debit spread.

February 2023 Gold Options Trade

We use the February 2023 Gold futures contract in this bull call spread example. We are buying 1 February Gold 1750 call at $45 as our long call. We then simultaneously sell 1 February Gold 1850 call at $22 as our short call. This action creates our premium, which is $23. We then multiply that by $100 to account for Gold's multiplier (a 100-ounce contract) to get $2,300, or our total premium paid (plus any commissions or clearing fees).Knowing our premium paid, we can calculate our potential max profit simply by taking the difference in our strike prices ($1850 – $1750), which in this case is $100, then we multiply $100 by $100 because this is a futures contract. That gives us a total of $10,000 as our max gross profit, minus our

January Silver Options Trade

If you prefer Silver, we are looking at a year-end strategy that involves buying 1 January Silver $19.00 call at 120 cents as our long call. We then simultaneously sell 1 January Silver $19.75 call at 95 cents as our short call. This action creates our premium, which is 25. We then multiply that by $50 to account for Silver's multiplier to get $1,250, or our total premium (plus any commissions or clearing fees).

Knowing our premium paid, we can calculate our potential max profit simply by taking the difference in our strike prices ($19.75 – $19.00), which in this case is 75 cents, then we multiply 75 by $50 because this is a futures contract. That gives us a total of $3,750 as our max gross profit, minus our $1,250 premium, leaving us with a max net profit of $2,500 (less any commissions or clearing fees). If you have never traded futures or commodities, I just completed a new educational guide that answers all your questions on transferring your current investing skills into trading "real assets," such as the 10 oz Gold futures contract. You can request yours here: Trade Metals, Transition your Experience Book.

By Phillip Streible

Contributing to kitco.comweek's low of $1,622.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $17.40. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $19.045 and then at $19.40. Next support is seen at Tuesday's low of $18.295 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 670 points at 342.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at 355.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 330.55 cents and then at this week's low of 324.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold price weaker earlier, but now catching safe-haven bid as U.S. equities tank

Gold prices are a bit higher and near daily highs in midday U.S. trading Thursday. The yellow metal has erased its early losses as is seeing some safe-haven buying the U.S. stock market is melting down again and risk aversion is on the rise, amid shaky currency and bond markets. Also, daily bullish elements for the precious metals include a slight drop in the U.S. dollar index and in Treasury yields at midday. December gold was last up $2.10 at $1,672.20 and December silver was down $0.08 at $18.80.

U.S. stock indexes are sharply lower and back near their recent lows at midday. The marketplace was only briefly assuaged by the Bank of England's surprise announcement Wednesday that it will begin purchases of U.K. government bonds in order to stabilize the rattled U.K. bond market. However, markets quickly brushed aside the move as being insufficient. Risk aversion remains significantly elevated late this week. The marketplace is spooked by rising inflation, the specter of global economic recession, and currency and financial markets instability.

The U.K. government has created a "loop of doom" that threatens the entire financial system and they must act urgently, said Nigel Green of the DeVere Group. "Markets now know where the weakness lies. Intervention paints a target on the back of the body that intervenes." If the U.K. government does not change its tax and spending plans, "they will have blown up the U.K. mortgage market, U.K. pensions, amongst others, and eventually (a contagion) could spread to the wider global financial markets which themselves are sitting on thin ice as liquidity disappears," said Green. His comments came after the Bank of England stepped in to buy U.K. bonds Wednesday. The BOE's announcement "is the right thing to do, of course, but it seems ludicrous that it has had to act in this way," said Green. The International Monetary Fund warned the U.K. government over its plan for tax cuts and spending, saying such is likely to increase inequality and add to pressures pushing up prices.

New Pacific Metals advances a project near 'one of the largest silver deposits in the world'

Read a Barron's headline today: "Things are starting to break. But the Fed and BOE aren't done hiking."

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices firmer and trading around $83.00 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is rising and presently fetching 3.729% after rising above 4.0% overnight. The 2-year Treasury note yield is 4.39%.

]

Technically, December gold futures bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,685.00 and then at $1,700.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,649.30 and then at this week's low of $1,622.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

]

December silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $17.40. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $19.045 and then at $19.40. Next support is seen at Tuesday's low of $18.295 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 670 points at 342.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 350.00 cents and then at 355.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 330.55 cents and then at this week's low of 324.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold, silver rally on safe-haven buying, bullish outside markets

JGold and silver prices are solidly higher and near daily highs in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, on safe-haven demand amid a nervous marketplace as the calendar is set to turn to what can be a tumultuous month of October for stock and financial markets. The U.S. dollar index is trading solidly lower at midday, bond yields have also dropped during today's session, and crude oil prices are solidly higher—all bullish daily outside market elements for the metals markets. Gold prices did drop to a nearly 2.5-year low overnight. December gold was last up $30.00 at $1,666.00 and December silver was up $0.468 at $18.805.

A Barron's headline today reads, "The greenback has gone ballistic." The generally strong U.S. dollar is putting serious pressure on the currencies of many smaller countries, which is very worrisome to those who endured currency crises of past decades. The main concern is a general marketplace contagion developing if secondary currencies dislocations and illiquidity spill over into extreme anxiety and lack of confidence in the global financial transactions system. The Chinese yuan hit a record low against the U.S. dollar today. Major economies have taken steps over the years to prevent another global financial market crisis, but when everyone runs for the exit doors at once, even robust systems can be over-run. Any investment bank or big hedge fund that appears to be in trouble may provide the first clue of a much bigger problem developing. Such a scenario would likely prompt a bigger move into the hard assets, safe-haven gold and silver.

BMO downgrades gold and silver prices for 2023, upgrades uranium outlook

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday on short covering. The marketplace was somewhat assuaged overnight when the Bank of England made a surprise announcement that it will begin purchases of U.K. government bonds in order to stabilize the rattled U.K. bond market. The International Monetary Fund said the U.K. government should re-examine its stated plan to stimulate its economy through massive borrowing and bond sales.

Technically, December gold prices hit a nearly 2.5-year low early on today. Prices also scored a bullish "outside day" up today. The gold futures bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,700.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,669.40 and then at $1,680.00. First support is seen at $1,650.00 and then at $1,635.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December silver futures prices scored a bullish "outside day" up today after hitting a three-week low early on. The silver bears still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $20.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $17.40. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $19.045 and then at $19.40. Next support is seen at Tuesday's low of $18.295 and then at $18.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

December N.Y. copper closed up 735 points at 335.70 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a bullish "outside day" up after hitting a nine-week low early on. The copper bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 369.25 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at 340.00 cents and then at 348.00 cents. First support is seen at 330.00 cents and then at today's low of 324.30 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold's weakness remains as the dollar dominates with more upside potential

Although gold is trading fractionally higher today, by no means can we say that a rally has begun or that this is the beginning of a potential pivot and key reversal from bearish to bullish. The fate of gold pricing remains intrinsically tied to dollar strength or weakness. In the current economic scenario, it is dollar strength that is overwhelmingly moving gold to lower pricing. The dollar has been moving in a near parabolic manner and today is fractionally higher following exceedingly strong upside moves of 1% each day for the last two trading days.

As of 4:50 PM EDT, the dollar index is up 12 points or 0.11% and is currently fixed at 114.14. The chart above is a weekly chart of the dollar index in which we have added a Fibonacci extension. This extension was created over two weeks ago and currently, the dollar index is just below the forecast created from the extension.

According to Investopedia, "Fibonacci extensions are a tool that traders can use to establish profit targets or estimate how far a price may travel after a pullback is finished. Extension levels are also possible areas where the price may reverse.

They're created from three price points marking price levels of key tops and bottoms. In essence, a Fibonacci extension will forecast how far the next price wave or rally could move before finding resistance. In the case of the chart above, we used a weekly chart beginning at 88.095 the low achieved during the beginning of 2018 as the first price point. The second price point occurred in April 2020 when the rally that began in 2018 concluded with the dollar index at 104.825. The third price point is based upon the correction from the termination of the rally in April 2020 at 104.825 to the conclusion of the correction in January 2021 when the dollar corrected to 89.175.

From these three price points, we then do a price extension and in the case of a strong rally, we will look for the rally to move as high as 1.618% of the price differential between the first two price points. In the case of the Fibonacci extension study above a 1.618 extension occurs at 114.497. Today the dollar continues to move fractionally higher trading to a high of 114.425 and is currently fixed at 114.13. In other words, the Fibonacci extension was able to forecast the first level at which the dollar might encounter some resistance.

Fibonacci extensions can be created from different time cycles or using different tops and bottoms. The second chart is also a Fibonacci extension from a weekly chart. However, we are using a much longer time sequence beginning at a low that occurred during the first quarter of 1995 when the dollar index concluded a correction at 79.921. The rally that followed lasted until 2002 when the dollar index reached 121.144. The third price point is the conclusion of the correction that began at 121.144 and occurred at 70.993. In this study, we are looking at the potential for the Fibonacci extension to go to either 1.23% which occurs at 121.696, or 1.382% which occurs at 127.962.

In other words, based on these technical studies the dollar index may find fractional resistance at its current pricing of 114.49. However, any correction will probably be shallow and short-lived and the dollar will return to its upward trajectory reaching 121.70 at minimum.

As long as the Dollar remains strong and moves to higher ground, which is likely as the Federal Reserve continues to raise rates which will increase the yields on U.S. debt instruments that will lead to more dollar strength, gold will continue to remain under pressure.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David