Gold Price News: Gold Eases Lower, Finds Support Below $2,290

Gold News

Market Analysis

Gold prices eased lower on Thursday, giving up the previous day’s gains, although prices came back up off the lows to finish down around 0.7% day-on-day.

Prices fell as low as $2,286 an ounce before climbing back to around $2,304 an ounce later in the day. That compared with around $2,322 an ounce in late deals on Wednesday.

Gold prices underwent successive moves lower this week as prices pulled back from highs of over $2,400 an ounce seen in mid-April.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

KAU/USD 1-hourly Kinesis Exchange

US initial jobless claims figures released Thursday came in at 208,000 in the week to April 27, showing only a slight reduction against forecasts of 212,000. Meanwhile, US factory orders for March rose by 1.6% from February levels, in line with market expectations.

The figures provided little convincing momentum in either direction, leaving gold to find tentative support at around the $2,290 an ounce level.

The US dollar fell against other major currencies through the afternoon after an earlier push higher, and this may have helped gold to climb back up off the lows on Thursday afternoon. Yields on US 10-year treasuries also fell later in the day, providing a supportive element for gold.

That said, gold continues to fight a headwind now that markets are broadly expecting US interest rates to stay on hold at least until the autumn, reducing the appeal of assets that don’t earn a yield.

Looking ahead, the markets will be watching out for Friday’s US non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate and ISM Services PMI figures, all of which relate to April, for the latest health check on the US economy.

Kitco Media

Frank Watson

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

 

David

Wall Street joins Main Street in the bear cave for next week as gold’s price momentum wanes

The gold market had plenty to digest this week, with manufacturing and services sector data, nonfarm payrolls, and the FOMC rate decision, and while precious metals prices did see a boost from the Fed that effectively ruled out a hike and left room for a cut in Q2, the overall trajectory was down as Asian demand cooled somewhat and Mideast tensions fell off the front pages altogether.

After opening the week above $2,335 per ounce, spot gold twice failed to hold above $2,340 on Monday, and by the afternoon, it had begun its steady slog downward, hitting a weekly low below $2,283 at exactly noon Wednesday.

Then positive momentum returned to the market, and the release of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference in the afternoon launched gold back above $2,325 per ounce.

But after a second attempt to breach that level, bullish momentum dissipated once again, and markets saw gold slide back down to support around $2,300 per ounce, where apart from the occasional test of $2,290, it languished for the rest of the week.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey has experts as pessimistic as they’ve been in some time about gold’s near-term prospects, while most retail traders still see gold prices falling or chopping sideways.

FXTM Senior Research Analyst Lukman Otunuga said the signals are bearish for bullion in the coming days. “Gold prices are flashing red, surrendering initial gains from the downbeat US jobs report,” he noted.

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, was among those who still believe in gold for the coming week.

“Gold’s resilience in the face of delays in cutting rates, by the Federal Reserve primarily as well as some other central banks, is powerful and telling,” Day said. “Whoever is buying gold – and we know that it is primarily global central banks and Chinese savers – is buying for reasons other than the traditional macro-economic factors that would lead to a higher gold price. This buying is largely price agnostic, and likely to continue.”

Marc Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, sees the balance of near-term trading tilted to the downside next week, as he expects to see Asian demand dialing back.

“Gold consolidated in recent days and the key issue is whether it is a consolidation pattern or a bottoming formation,” he said. “I suspect the yellow metal can have another leg lower toward $2250-60.”

Chandler said improved support for the yuan may further soften Chinese retail demand for gold. “Also note that HK stocks and mainland stocks that trade in HK have exploded for the past week and a half and this may reduce the urgency of seeking the safety of gold for some investors,” he added. “The recovery of the yen may also slow the local demand.”

For his part, Adam Button, Head of Currency Strategy at Forexlive.com, expects Chinese demand to pick up after domestic traders return in force.

“China is back from holiday next week and will likely resume buying,” he said.

This week, 15 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and after two weeks of downward consolidation, most see gold sliding further in the near term. Only four experts, or 27%, expected to see gold prices climb higher next week, while five analysts, representing 33%, predicted a price drop. Six experts, or 40% of respondents, see gold continuing to trade sideways.

Meanwhile, 217 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with only a minority of Main Street investors expecting prices to move higher in the near term. 102 retail traders, representing 47%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 61, or 28%, predicted it would be lower, while 54 respondents, or 25%, expect the precious metal to trend sideways in the week ahead.

Next week will be among the lightest of the year for economic data releases. The main highlights, such as they are, will be Wednesday’s 10-year bond auction, the Bank of England’s monetary policy decision and the Treasury’s 30-year bond auction on Thursday, and the Friday release of Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment.

Chandler noted the absence of major indicators on the docket for next week, and said he’ll be watching the sovereign bond market for clues on the market’s potential direction. “After the FOMC and jobs data, next week looks quiet, but large Tsy supply with bills and quarterly refunding,” he said.

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, was reflecting on this week’s bumper crop of economic indicators.

“I don't think we learned anything we didn't already know about the U.S. economy,” Newsom said. “The key takeaway for me this week is that the monthly employment data is strictly for entertainment purposes, and not information. It's just hilarious to watch it come out every month and be hundreds of thousands off from the quote-unquote experts’ opinions on what it should be.”

“It’s a very high-profile game of pin the tail on the donkey, and nobody plays it very well.”

Newsom said that other things are revealing the true state of the economy. “There are some cracks showing up in the U. S. economy, finally, that haven't been in place for quite some time,” he said. “We saw Starbucks earnings come in, and what was interesting about Starbucks is it wasn't just sales were down because of the higher price of the commodity itself, given the recent rally in coffee. It was actual sales, people in the door that were down. U.S. consumers might actually have started to change some of their habits and cutting that six- to eight-dollar cup of coffee out every morning.”

Another sign that the U.S. consumer may be weakening was the steep decline in demand for boxed beef last month. “We saw a sharp drop-off there at a time when these markets usually are going up as retailers are buying ahead of the summer grilling season, the biggest demand time of the year,” Newsom said. “Are U.S. consumers finally starting to tighten the belt after years of everyone telling them how terrible the situation was? Have they finally started tightening the belt to where they're cutting out that cup of coffee every day, where they're not buying the expensive cuts of meat?”

“These to me were the two key things that we saw this week,” he said. “Everything else just fit with what we already knew: there's still inflation, both sides of the aisle are going to argue, it's bullish, it's bearish, whatever. But our reads on what some of these key consumer markets are doing, I think it's more important.”

As for what all this means for the gold market, Newsom sees some exhaustion on the side of the bulls, which he thinks is understandable given gold’s recent run-up.

“June gold is close to finishing off its short-term downtrend midday Friday,” he said. “This means a bullish technical reversal is possible either today or Monday. The market is technically oversold short-term as well.”

“The short-term downside target is still $2,268 with June sitting near $2,300 Friday.”

Newsom compared gold’s current position to another popular commodity. “I certainly can't make a nice hot cup of it, but to me, it reminds me of cocoa,” he said. “Cocoa ran up so high on fundamental factors that it ran out of buyers and has collapsed.”

“Gold went to new all-time highs,” Newsom noted. “And while there's always going to be Middle East tension, there's always going to be some sort of currency questions around the world, and inflation hasn't gone away, it simply ran out of buyers. There was a vacuum underneath the market, which is why when it finally gave some short-term technical signals that were bearish, it certainly seems to be what's played out [earlier this week].”

He underlined, however, that there are still plenty of medium and longer-term factors supporting gold demand.

“We still have inflation,” he said. “It still looks like interest rates are going to be cut at least once this year, that should weaken the U.S. dollar and should create more of an inflationary environment. And the Middle East isn't going away. As I've said for quite some time, the closer the U.S. gets to its next election, the more chaos around the world we're going to continue to see in hopes of swaying the election one way or the other. So gold's still going to be the play. I think it's going to find some buyers down here, I think the algorithms are going to kick back in.”

Taking all of this into account, Newsom said that the long-term outlook for gold hasn't changed. “It's still probably the best hedge against everything that's going on,” he said. “It just needed to take a breather and hit a vacuum where there wasn't as much buying interest.”

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff said the technical picture still supports high gold prices next week. “Steady-higher as charts remain overall bullish,” he said.

Spot gold last traded at $2,301.56 per ounce at the time of writing, down 0.10% on the day and down 1.56% on the week.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

David

Gold Price News: Gold Falls Sharply Below $2,300 as US Data Points to Inflation

Market Analysis

Gold prices saw a sharp sell-off on Tuesday, pushing prices to their lowest level for a week, as economic figures pointed to high inflation, indicating lower chances of interest rate cuts any time soon.

It was one-way traffic on Tuesday with prices consistently moving lower through the day, falling as low as $2,294 an ounce. That compared with around $2,335 an ounce in late deals on Monday – a loss of roughly $40 in a single day. The sharp slide has taken prices back to levels last seen on April 23.

KAU/USD 1-hourly Kinesis Exchange

Euro Area GDP figures for Q1 came out on Tuesday showing stronger than expected growth, both on a quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year basis. Compounding this, the US employment cost index for Q1 released later in the day also came in above forecasts. Taken together, the latest figures indicate relatively high inflation, and this strengthens the argument for central banks maintaining interest rates at current levels.

The markets have been dialling back bets on the US Fed’s expected start of interest rate cuts taking place as soon as June. The latest figures from interest rate traders shows that bets are roughly 50-50 on a continuation of existing rates in September or a cut. A slightly stronger majority favour the first cut in November. The US Fed’s FOMC is set to meet May 1, followed by subsequent meetings in June, July and September.

Eventual interest rate cuts are seen as supportive for gold prices because they reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yield-bearing assets like gold and silver.

Looking at a one-month gold price chart, Tuesday’s drop could prove significant if trend line support fails to hold at around $2,300 an ounce, which was the recent low seen on April 23.

Looking ahead, the markets will be watching out for Wednesday’s US ISM manufacturing PMI figures for April and JOLTs job openings numbers for March, as well as keeping an eye out for any signals from the US Fed’s meeting and subsequent press conference.

Kitco Media

Frank Watson

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold Futures Tumble Below $2,300 as Traders Brace for Fed's Hawkish Pivot

Gold Futures Tumble Below $2,300 as Traders Brace for Fed's Hawkish Pivot teaser image

Gold futures prices plummeted on Tuesday, dipping below the crucial $2,300 per ounce level, as traders braced for a potential hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve in its upcoming policy decision. The precious metal, often viewed as a hedge against inflation, came under intense selling pressure amid concerns that the central bank could strike a more aggressive tone on future rate hikes.

As of 5:15 PM EDT, gold futures for the most active June contract traded $60.50 lower, or 2.57% down, settling at $2,297.20 per ounce. The sharp decline in prices reflects genuine apprehension among market participants that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting might conclude with a notable change in language regarding inflation and monetary policy.

Traders widely anticipate that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a much more hawkish press conference, potentially signaling a slower pace of rate cuts or even a pause in the central bank's easing cycle. This sentiment gained traction after Powell recently acknowledged that current levels of inflation would require more time to achieve the 2% target, stating, "Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated."

Market observers expect Powell to highlight the recent strong economic indicators, including the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index for March and the robust Gross Domestic Product (GDP) numbers. These data points could prompt the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious approach toward upcoming rate cuts, diverging from earlier expectations of more aggressive easing.

The latest inflation data revealed that the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% year-over-year in March, while the core rate of inflation, excluding energy and food costs, advanced to 3.8% annually. This development could significantly alter the Federal Reserve's stance on the number and timing of rate cuts this year. Initially, the Fed had projected three quarter-point rate cuts through a series of moves, but market participants now anticipate only one or two smaller cuts, potentially occurring later in the year.

According to financial experts, the FOMC's potential shift in language regarding inflation and monetary easing bears significant implications for the markets. An acknowledgment of sustained high inflation rates could dampen hopes for imminent rate cuts, altering investment landscapes and risk assessments. If the FOMC opts to reduce the cap on Treasury balance sheet run-off, this could be interpreted as a cautious step towards tightening, albeit less aggressively than an outright rate hike.

The prospect of a more hawkish Federal Reserve, combined with the prevailing dollar strength, has exerted downward pressure on gold prices, driving futures below the critical $2,300 per ounce level. As traders await the FOMC's decision, the precious metal's trajectory will likely hinge on the central bank's assessment of inflation risks and its subsequent policy adjustments.

Kitco Media

Gary Wagner

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold at the highest probability of a 'melt-up' since the 1980s, but don't rule out 10% corrections – Jared Dillian

Commodities are known to top following major geopolitical events but don't discount gold seeing 10% moves in any direction as the market is at the highest probability of a melt-up since the 1980s, according to Jared Dillian, author of 'No Worries' and editor of The Daily Dirtnap.

Gold surged 18% between March 1 and April 12, rising around $400 and hitting new all-time highs on escalating Middle East tensions, record purchases by central banks, concerns over sticky inflation, soaring U.S. government debt, and continued fiat debasement.

Following the rally, major banks have upwardly revised their gold price outlooks. Citigroup is now calling for a $3,000 gold price over six to 18 months, while Goldman expects gold to hit $2,700 by the year end, and UBS has upgraded its year-end target to $2,500 an ounce.

At the time of writing, spot gold had fallen from record highs and was trading steady at $2,330 an ounce.

Banks raising gold price targets is somewhat concerning in terms of sentiment, said Dillian, who is projecting trend exhaustion in the short term.

"Gold is going to top, which will happen at some point in the $2,500," Dillian told Michelle Makori, Lead Anchor and Editor-in-Chief at Kitco News. "I focus on sentiment, and it has been getting a little bit hotter. Gold people, including myself, have been a little bit more bullish on Twitter. I think you'll see an exhaustion of bullish sentiment in the short term and then a price pullback."

Dillian, who has a 40% exposure to gold, is continuing to hold his position but is planning to hedge. "I expect about a 10% correction," he said

By Anna Golubova and Michelle Makori

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

 

David

Gold Hits Record Highs Rising with the US Dollar

Over the last six weeks, gold and the US dollar have been moving higher in strong correlation. This is contrary to the typical moderately inverse relationship between the two Tier 1 bank assets.

Gold & The Dollar

I use the term “moderately” because the media and mainstream market analysts talk about the relationship as if it’s a tick-for-tick strong inverse relationship. Over a long period of time, the correlation between the dollar and gold is around -30% (the statistical study I’m referencing was conducted by a Trinity College (Dublin) professor and the LBMA – it examined the data from 1975 to February 2012).

Over very short periods, the inverse relationship might be considerably stronger.

Gold Vs The Dollar

However, since late 2005, gold and the dollar have occasionally traded higher with a strong correlation for a short period. In those instances, that particular trading relationship often precedes a sell-off in the dollar while gold continues to move higher.

The chart above shows gold vs the US dollar for the last 52 weeks. The two assets have been moving higher with a very strong positive correlation. There’s been a positive correlation between gold and the dollar as both have been trending higher since the beginning of 2024.

Gold’s Divergence

Also note that after the periods in which gold and the dollar moved higher together, at some point the dollar headed south while gold continued higher. Gold continued higher to a new all-time high in all three instances (March 2008, September 2011 and July 2020). If this trading pattern holds this time, it implies that there will be an all-time high price for gold that is considerably higher than the current level at some point after the dollar diverges negatively and heads south.

The chart above shows the dollar vs gold from 2004 to present, weekly. Annotations show the periods when gold and the dollar moved higher in correlation.

The best explanation in my opinion for this trading occurrence between gold and the dollar is that financial turmoil is unfolding in the financial system around the period when the two assets move higher in tandem.

Enter Inflation

In 2005, inflation began accelerating along with the price of oil, the mortgage finance bubble was inflating rapidly, interest rates were rising and the real (inflation-adjusted) GDP was falling.

2008 saw the culmination of the mortgage crisis which ushered in a full-fledged banking crisis. 2020 needs no explanation. Currently, it is starting to appear as if the entire debt-driven financial system globally is at risk of collapsing.

Thus, I believe the best explanation for the dollar and gold moving higher together is a flight to safety into gold and the dollar by those who can “see” what’s unfolding. At some point, the financial turmoil triggers a sell-off in the dollar and an even bigger movement of capital into gold and silver.

The financial system could be approaching the tipping point which will trigger a sharp sell-off in the dollar and an even bigger move higher in the precious metals sector.

Dave Kranzler

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Wall Street sees higher gold prices next week, Main Street gets pessimistic with NFP, Fed decision on the docket

While gold would appear to have had a poor week, down over 2% since the open on Sunday night, a cursory glance at the weekly chart shows that virtually all of the losses were traders selling off their weekend insurance after the Middle East conflict didn’t escalate beyond Israel’s retaliatory strikes on Friday.

If we subtract this move, gold prices traded in a narrow $30 band since dipping briefly below $2,300 Tuesday as markets digested worrisome but not earth-shattering economic data.

The latest Kitco News Weekly Gold Survey showed retail investors increasingly losing faith in the precious metal, while analysts and institutional players see this week’s consolidation as a harbinger of further gains.

Mac Chandler, Managing Director at Bannockburn Global Forex, was among those who saw this week’s price performance in a positive light.

“Gold in the cash market found support near $2300,” he said. “I think it can test $2370 in the coming days. I suspect the real test is with the US jobs data next week. The FOMC meeting comes first, but a hawkish hold is widely anticipated. The service PMI and small business surveys warn of downside risk.”

“A disappointing jobs report could send the dollar and rates lower and lift the yellow metal,” Chandler said.

Adrian Day, President of Adrian Day Asset Management, also sees gold trading higher next week. “Buying worldwide is picking up,” he said. “Central banks continue to be net buyers of gold, in size, if so far this year at a somewhat slower rate than the last two years.”

“Chinese consumer buying is up this year, as investors and savers look for a safe place to put their money amid a weakening economy and threatened yuan devaluation,” Day said. “Now buying in North America is turning, albeit at a slow pace, but turning none the less. Gold ETFs are beginning to see some inflows, after steady and relentless selling most of last year and earlier this year.”

“Investors, both individuals and institutions, are extremely underweight gold assets, so even a slight shift in buying patterns could be dramatic,” Day added.

Adam Button, head of currency strategy at Forexlive.com, was parsing gold market demand for clues about its future direction.

“The open question is how much of the bid is safe haven and how much of it is driven by the same fundamentals that have been underpinning gold for the past seven weeks,” Button said. “One thing to look at is oil. Many people are still estimating there's a five-dollar premium in oil from the Middle East. I think that's aggressive, but oil hasn't come down that much this week either, so either the premium is still there, or it's not that big of a factor at all.”

“I lean towards that the geopolitical premium is small,” he said. “At this point, at the risk of being wrong on the weekend, but the Iran-Israel tensions appear to be dwindling. It's clear the U. S. doesn't want a war, and Iran doesn't want a war. I don't think Israel's going to go it alone.”

Button said that as the pressure drops in the region, the market should return its focus to the real driving force behind gold’s price action.

“I think all roads lead to China in this gold discussion,” he said. “And the question I have is how much of the China bid is retail and how much of it is official or semi-official. And I would split that off and say retail financial flows versus retail physical flows, because if it's physical retail buying, that's not going to unwind, whereas there's a lot of talk about China ETF inflows… that can unwind really quickly if the price starts declining.”

That said, Button sees plenty of signs of continued strength for gold prices.

“The bids keep coming in,” he said. “And the sellers have had a good reason. You've got hot inflation numbers, strong dollar, a rough week in markets with tech there, and a more peaceful kind of resolution [to the Iran-Israel strikes].”

“If you look at the week, gold faced three or four tests of demand. And to my mind, it passed them all.”

Button said that while we’re seeing steady buying and higher lows again, gold will need buyers outside of China to propel prices higher still.

“I think if gold is going to rally further from here, it's going to take more of a global retail demand spike to make it happen,” he said. “There's a little bit more talk on CNBC about gold, but it just gets so easily overshadowed when you have Google up 10% or Meta down 20%. Gold can't seem to grab ahold of that retail bandwidth. And that's fine, because that's probably what's going to lead to a top, is some kind of retail piling in. But for now, the bids are still there, and at wonderful levels. There's a lot of money to be made in the gold space right now.”

Button also believes the market is primed for an overreaction to a disappointing employment report. “The market will move much more than it should on a soft jobs report,” he said. “This week we had the S&P global PMI that was soft and we saw what happened, there were some big moves on that. And that's a second-tier indicator. Nonfarm payrolls is tip-of-the-top.”

“GDP was a little soft, rates are high again, there's some election angst, demand really isn't that strong,” he said. “The market might have a really quick rethink if there is a soft nonfarm payrolls report.”

This week, 10 Wall Street analysts participated in the Kitco News Gold Survey, and the views were virtually identical to those shared last week. Seven experts, or 70%, expected to see gold prices climb higher next week, while two analysts, representing 20%, see gold continuing to trade sideways. Once again, only one analyst, or 10%, predicted a price drop.

Meanwhile, 155 votes were cast in Kitco’s online poll, with only a minority of Main Street investors now seeing gains for the precious metal after another week of restrained price action. 74 retail traders, representing 48%, looked for gold to rise next week. Another 46, or 30%, predicted it would be lower, while 35 respondents, or 22%, expect the precious metal to trend sideways in the week ahead.

Next week’s economic news highlights are the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday and the nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, but markets will also pay attention to Tuesday’s U.S. Consumer Confidence report, Wednesday’s ADP nonfarm employment, ISM manufacturing PMI, and JOLTS job openings, weekly jobless claims on Thursday, and the Friday release of ISM Services PMI.

Darin Newsom, Senior Market Analyst at Barchart.com, believes gold will finally get its long-overdue pullback next week.

“Going out on a limb here, but if the June futures contract closes higher Friday and Monday, it would be 3 days against the short-term downtrend that was confirmed with the move to a new 4-day low this past Monday,” Newsom said. “The daily chart would also be showing a bear flag pattern, with the old technical saying being, ‘flags and pennants fly at half-mast.’ If so, and the contract breaks down next Tuesday (theoretically), then the short-term target would be near $2,268.”

James Stanley, senior market strategist at Forex.com, thinks the Fed will send some dovish signals, which should help gold prices.

“I think the Fed will still have some element of a dovish lean, and I think that’ll keep gold bulls in the game,” he said. “That said, the April monthly bar in spot gold could take on a different tone depending on how Monday and Tuesday of next week go. If bulls cannot hold 2300 into month-end, there’ll be a greater build of bearish short-term price action, and when combined with the lower-high last week and the stall at 2400 this month, that can start to open the door to a deeper pullback move.”

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, was looking through this week’s sideways chop on Friday, and sees geopolitics and inflation continuing to drive gold prices higher.

“It has been hesitant,” Lusk said. “You get a little move overnight and then it's right back to where it came from in the morning, in either direction. Some of the inflation data was a little scary yesterday, now it's reset itself. This is probably an overreaction to the upside of the equity markets, the metals gave back all of the rally from last night, but I still think the path of least resistance is higher.”

Lusk said he doesn’t believe the Middle East situation has really cooled down, and he expects more conflict in the near future.

“You're just getting a little bit of a pause, but my feeling is this is the calm before the storm,” he said. “The actions that have taken place in the last couple of weeks over there, where it's just tit for tat, missile over here, missile over there. There's no consequences, but there's going to be consequences. That's why I think eventually, energy is going to lead a lot of these things up.”

Looking ahead at next week’s April nonfarm payrolls report, Lusk said that while it remains a tradable event, the inflation indicators should really be the market’s focus these days.

“I think the employment report used to be the standard, the most important economic data. And it's very important. But now, when you have rates back up off these historic lows that sat there at 2% for year in, year out, and we sank them to zero for the pandemic, brought them back out of hibernation, finally, to combat inflation.”

“Can we not argue that the GDP, and more importantly, the CPI and PPI, are way more important indicators than unemployment? Because you can,” he said. “The unemployment report is just a simple survey, there's no accuracy there. That's why there's revisions, and the revisions are major.”

“I think the market for gold, for energy, for other things, is going to take its cue from the inflation indicators as they relate to the bond market, and obviously the dollar. Remember the February employment number? Blew away expectations! Real positive! Gold dipped down below $2,000 an ounce. And since then we've taken off. Why? Because inflation started to run hot again, and that took some muscle out of the stock market.”

“The dips, the profit-takes, the unwinds have been limp, maybe $40 here one day, $30 there, and what happens? It just slowly gets bought back,” he said.

“I'd be a buyer of dips in gold until the technicals and the fundamental focus and picture of the market says no more rate hikes,” Lusk added. “Flow is going back in the dollar. Bonds are crashing because yields are soaring. Those really are the traditional enemies of a sustained rally in gold.”

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, thinks gold prices will take a breather next week. “Gold needs more time to recover, so next week I’m neutral to lower.”

And Kitco Senior Analyst Jim Wyckoff still sees potential gains for gold next week. “Steady-higher as charts remain overall bullish,” he said.

Spot gold last traded at $2,337.40 per ounce at the time of writing, up 0.22% on the day but down 2.27% on the week.

Kitco Media

Ernest Hoffman

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

 

David

Gold Price News: Gold Falls Back as Geopolitical Risks Ease

Gold prices fell sharply at the start of the week, pulling back from near all-time highs as geopolitical risks were seen easing.

Prices fell to around $2,320 an ounce by Tuesday afternoon, down from around $2,330 an ounce in late deals on Monday, and from highs of over $2,400 at the end of the previous week.

Gold’s falling price on Monday and Tuesday was linked to an easing of geopolitical tensions after it became clear that Israel and Iran were not willing to enter into an escalating round of retaliatory air strikes that would risk a broader confrontation. Recent tensions in the Middle-East, as well as Russia and Ukraine, have increased the appeal of safe-haven assets like precious metals.

On the economic front, US manufacturing PMI figures for April released Tuesday came in weaker than the markets had expected, posting a four-month low. Signs of a weaker-than-expected economy strengthen the case for interest rate cuts, which are seen as supportive for non-interest-bearing assets like gold. However, the markets still appear to be dialling back expectations of as many as three interest rate cuts by the US Fed this year.

Looking ahead, Wednesday will see the release of monthly US durable goods orders for March, providing the latest snapshot on the state of the US economy.

Arguably more important will be the US GDP growth rate data for Q1 on Thursday, as well as the latest weekly initial jobless claims figures, both of which will play into expectations for the US Fed’s stance on monetary policy in the coming months.

Frank Watson

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David