Gold price recovers, ASX tumbles

Gold price recovers, ASX tumbles

Australian markets opened lower after Friday's sell off due to new pandemic concerns.

The Australian Stock Exchange is down as of 10:30 a.m. Sydney time with the S&P/ASX200 off 57.60 points or 0.79% to 7,221.70. The exchange set a new 20-day low, according to an update on the ASX homepage.

Spot gold dropped $10 at open to trade as low as $1,783 a ounces before recovering.

Comex February gold futures are up +0.53% to $1,797.5 an ounce as of 6 p.m. ET.

Oil is up with WTI Crude gaining 3.23% to $70.35 a barrel.

On Saturday Britain, Germany and Italy detected cases of the new Omicron coronavirus variant, according to a report by Reuters. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced new social distancing measures. Nations are imposing travel restrictions on southern African states, where the variant was first detected.

On Sunday two cases of omicron COVID-19 variant were reported in Ontario. Other cases have been reported in Australia, the Netherlands, Denmark, United Kingdom, Germany, Israel and Hong Kong, according to CNN.
 

By Michael McCrae

For Kitco News

Buy, Sell Gold and Silver, with Free Storage and Monthly Yields

 

David

Gold is still the safe-haven to own

Gold is still the safe-haven to own

A few weeks ago, we noted that when gold shines the brightest when the chips are down, and once again, the precious metal proved its mettle as a safe-haven asset.

It is interesting to compare gold’s reaction to the latest COVID-19 news as the price bounced off a nearly three-week low, to Bitcoin, which is down more than 7% Friday, falling below $55,000 per token.

Fear of a new COVID-19 variant is prompting the latest bout of panic selling in risk assets. Although there is still not a lot known about the new variant out of South Africa, there are fears that global economic activity will be curtailed as governments implement new lockdown measures to stop the spread of this new version of COIVD-19. Already we have seen countries around the world, including Canada, impose travel bans on South African and six of its neighboring countries.

Not only are economists concerned about a slowing global economy, but any new lockdown measures will add further problems to the current supply disruptions. In other words, there is a growing risk of stagflation.

Although gold appears to be well supported in the new environment with the unknown COIVD-19 risks, the precious metal still has a lot of damage to repair after Monday and Tuesday’s massive selloff.

COVID Fears, wage inflation will support prices next week

Personally, I didn’t really understand why gold dropped back below $1,800 an ounce after Joe Biden announced that he would nominate Jerome Powell to remain as Chair of the Federal Reserve. Yes, maybe Powell would not be as dovish as Lael Brainard, the other person under consideration; however, Powell is not a screaming hawk.

With inflation on the rise, it is not surprising that the Federal Reserve is looking to tighten its monetary policy a little sooner than the end of next year. The pace of tapering could also speed up, but that still doesn’t change the current environment.

This week I had a chance to talk with Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree and he made an interesting observation. No matter how much the Federal Reserve tightens, they will undoubtedly remain behind the inflation curve, meaning real interest rates will remain low, a positive environment for gold.

For now, we will continue to wait and see how the new COVID-19 threat plays out, but it is clear central banks around the world are not going to rock the boat if the economy is at risk.

 

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

 

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David

Gold price surges as new Covid strain surfaces

Gold price surges as new Covid strain surfaces

Gold prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading Friday, on safe-haven demand and short covering by the futures traders, amid a potentially ominous development on the pandemic front. December gold was last up $20.50 at $1,804.30 and December Comex silver was last down $0.02 at $23.47 an ounce.

There is keen risk aversion in the marketplace Friday, on what typically is a very quiet post-U.S.-Thanksgiving-holiday trading day that sees many U.S. markets closing early. A new strain of Covid-19 that is rapidly spreading in southern Africa has produced high anxiety among traders and investors. The European Union and the U.K. are moving to halt air travel from South Africa. Other governments are also moving quickly to try to control the spread of the new strain of coronavirus. Scientists have not determined how quickly the new strain can spread or whether it is resistant to existing Covid vaccines. The World Health Organization is holding an emergency meeting on the matter Friday.

Global stock markets were sharply lower in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are pointed to solidly lower openings when the New York day session begins.

Nymex crude oil prices have plunged to a nearly two-month low of $72.60 a barrel, U.S. Treasury bond and note prices are soaring (yields dropping) on the news. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.521%, well down from 1.64% seen on Wednesday. Gold prices are sharply higher on safe-haven demand. The other key outside market today sees the U.S. dollar index solidly lower. Bitcoin prices are sharply down and have lost over 7% Friday.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

Technically, December gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart is still alive. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week’s high of $1,850.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,758.50. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,816.30 and then at $1,825.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $1,786.40 and then at this week’s low of $1.777.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $25.49 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $22.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $23.735 and then at $24.00. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $23.28 and then at the November low of $23.045. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

 

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

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David

Gold price remains well supported above $1,800 an ounce in 2022 – Scotiabank

Gold price remains well supported above $1,800 an ounce in 2022 – Scotiabank

Gold prices continue to languish below $1,800 an ounce as investors interpret the re-nomination of Jerome Powell to remain the head of the Federal Reserve as a hawkish development for monetary policy.

However, commodity analysts at Scotiabank said in a report Wednesday that the selloff in gold could be overdone and the precious metal price looks well supported in 2022.

The Canadian bank looks for gold prices to average next year around $1,850 an ounce, representing a 3% gain from current prices. U.S. markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, but gold's spot price last traded at $1,788.30 an ounce, roughly unchanged on the day.

"The yellow metal lost almost $50/oz on Monday as news broke that U.S. President Biden would keep Jerome Powell as Chair of the Federal Reserve, which markets interpreted as a hawkish signal. Still, our forecast of above-target inflation and still-low U.S. interest rates into next year implies well-supported bullion values in 2022," the analysts said.

The gold market has struggled this week as markets start to price in more aggressive action from the Federal Reserve as inflation pressures remain at elevated levels. Wednesday Core PCE, the U.S. central bank's preferred inflation measure, saw an annual rise of 4.1% in October, the highest level since 1991.

Because of rising inflation, markets are expecting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates as early as June with a total of three rate hikes priced in.

Although gold continues to face some headwinds, the bank sees more potential in the yellow metal compared to silver.

"Also perceived as a safe haven and an inflation hedge, the metal's value is influenced by many of the same factors as that of bullion. However, given silver's range of industrial applications and our expectations of some China-driven near-term slowdown in construction and manufacturing activity, we are less optimistic about its near-term prospects than we are for bullion," the analysts said.

The recent selling pressure in gold dragged silver down below critical psychological levels; however, the precious metal appears to be finding some support above $23.50 an ounce.
 

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

 

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David

Gold near steady, shows little initial reaction to FOMC minutes

Gold near steady, shows little initial reaction to FOMC minutes

Gold and silver prices are trading not far from unchanged in afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, after huge day for U.S. economic data that produced not much markets reaction. December gold was last up $0.50 at $1,784.30 and December Comex silver was last up $0.04 at $23.475 an ounce.

The just-released FOMC minutes from the last meeting of the Fed's monetary policy-setting committee showed FOMC members getting more concerned about rising inflationary pressures and now believe that inflation will hang around longer than previously thought. Inflation will subside significantly in 2022, believes the committee members. Some Fed officials wanted a faster pace of “tapering” of the Fed's bond-buying program. Others were worried about elevated asset valuations. The members said labor participation would likely be lower in the coming months because of early retirements. Markets showed little initial reaction to the FOMC minutes.

It was a very busy day for U.S. data releases Wednesday. The big batch of data was a mixed bag, overall, but generally upbeat, and had little impact on the metals or other markets. Traders and investors in the U.S. apparently were more focused on the Thanksgiving holiday feasting.

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are mixed in afternoon trading.

Rising Covid-19 cases in Europe and Asia continue to prompt risk aversion in the marketplace. Austria is on a virtually complete lockdown and German officials are warning Covid cases are rising at an alarming rate.

Traders are closely watching the Turkish lira this week, which has dropped sharply to a record low against the U.S. dollar. Turkey's president forced its central bank to lower its main interest rate recently despite rising inflation concerns. That sent the lira into a downward spiral. The lira did rebound a bit Wednesday.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting another 15-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $78.50 a barrel. The yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.657%.

Technically, December gold futures prices hit a three-week low today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly this week and need to show fresh power soon to keep their edge. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at this week's high of $1,850.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,758.50. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,796.20 and then at $1,800.00. First support is seen at today's low of $1,777.40 and then at $1,758.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $25.49 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $23.045. First resistance is seen at $24.00 and then at Tuesday's high of $24.34. Next support is seen at this week's low of $23.28 and then at $23.045. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 390 points at 446.20 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a four-week high. The copper bulls have gained the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 460.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 419.15 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 449.10 cents and then at 455.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 439.15 cents and then at this week's low of 435.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Buy, Sell Gold and Silver, with Free Storage and Monthly Yields

David

Gold’s advantage over bitcoin

Gold's advantage over bitcoin

Before gold went on a run earlier this month, company financings in the precious metal space picked up, said CEO of Oreninc Kai Hoffmann.

Hoffmann spoke to Kitco in mid-November at the Deutsche Goldmesse show in Frankfurt, Germany. Oreninc tracks financings for juniors and miners.

Early this month, two pieces of news propelled gold higher: headline inflation rose to 6.2%, and the $1 trillion U.S. infrastructure bill was signed into law. Gold had a solid breakout trading above $1,850 an ounce. Today, precious metals have dropped along with the broader equity index.

Hoffmann said the Oreninc index had a "bit of a rally" with an "uptick in the last three to four weeks. [Financings] have been front running the pop in the gold price."

Hoffmann also weighed in on gold versus bitcoin, noting that the latter is "very volatile."

"Themes we've been hearing [at the conference] is outflows from crypto into gold. Bitcoin [supply] … is limited and gold is not, meaning that bitcoin may pop. It's very, very volatile. Gold is more stable," said Hoffmann adding that gold may perform better in a black swan event.

 

By Michael McCrae

For Kitco News

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David

Gold hit hard by profit taking as Fed Chair Powell stays

Gold hit hard by profit taking as Fed Chair Powell stays

Gold and silver futures are sharply down in midday U.S. trading Monday, with gold notching a two-week low. The metals’ prices were under pressure overnight and then selling pressure accelerated when it reported early this morning that President Biden plans to keep Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for another term. December gold was last down $41.10 at $1,810.40 and December Comex silver was last down $0.421 at $24.36 an ounce.

The yellow metal slumped, the U.S. dollar index rallied to a 15-month high and U.S. Treasury yields rose when it was announced Biden chose Powell to continue in his position for another term. Speculation had been that Biden might choose the more monetary-policy-dovish Lael Brainard as Fed chair. With Powell remaining as chairman of the Federal Reserve, traders and investors reckon U.S. monetary policy will remain on its present course, compared to notions that Brainard as a new Fed chair would have leaned easier on U.S. money policies.

Sell stop orders were triggered in gold futures when prices dropped below several key near-term technical support levels this morning, which drove prices still lower.

It can be argued that the Powell news was just an excuse for the shorter-term gold and silver futures traders to ring the cash register and take profits after recent good price gains. Reason: The marketplace generally expected Powell to be reappointed and gold should not have reacted the way it did. Nothing has changed for the metals markets, fundamentally, from last Friday’s closes. No significant chart damage was inflicted in gold or silver today and their near-term price uptrends remain in place. The metals markets are likely to continue to be supported by the inflation trade—meaning the metals will continue to be sought out as a hedge against rising and even problematic price inflation.

Global stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. The U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. It may be a quieter rest of the trading week in the U.S. as the Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday, with an abbreviated trading session Friday being historically one of the lowest-volume days of the year. European traders and investors remain worried about Covid lockdowns as infections in Europe and Asia are on the rise. The world is also keeping a wary eye on the buildup of Russian troops near the Russia-Ukraine border.

The key outside markets today saw the U.S. dollar index higher and hitting a 15-month high. Nymex crude oil prices are up and trading around $76.50 a barrel. Oil prices hit a six-week low overnight and it appears a market top is in place. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 1.605%.

Technically, December gold futures bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at today’s high of $1,850.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,800.00. First resistance is seen at $1,825.00 and then at $1,839.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,810.90 and then at $1,800.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December silver futures bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage amid a seven-week-old uptrend in place on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of $25.49 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the November low of $23.045. First resistance is seen at $24.75 and then at $25.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $24.25 and then at $24.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 30 points at 440.55 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 460.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 419.15 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 442.35 cents and then at last week’s high of 448.90 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 435.20 cents and then at 430.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
 

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Buy, Sell Gold and Silver, with Free Storage and Monthly Yields

David

Gold price is consolidating, when is a breakout happening? – Gary Wagner gives price targets

Gold price is consolidating, when is a breakout happening? – Gary Wagner gives price targets

This upcoming Thanksgiving will be the most expensive ever, and inflation will continue to be a serious concern for investors, said Gary Wagner, editor of TheGoldForecast.com who advocates that gold is still the ultimate store of wealth.

On a technical basis, gold is still in its consolidating phase, Wagner told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.

"A break above $1,880 [gold price] would really signal another breakout and we would push towards $1,990",” he said.

For more information on the main drivers behind gold and the metal’s current relationship with the U.S. dollar, watch the video above.
 

By David Lin

For Kitco News

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David

Gold closes under pressure following a statement by Fed Governor Waller

Gold closes under pressure following a statement by Fed Governor Waller

Gold is trading under pressure, which will certainly result in gold closing lower on the week. As of 5 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active December 2021 Comex contract is down $13.80 (0.74%) and fixed at $1847. What sparked today’s selling pressure came out of multiple components, but the majority stems directly from a speech by Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller.

He spoke to the Center for Financial Stability and expressed a more hawkish tone than any Fed member has in the past few months. While acknowledging that the spiraling level of inflation is much less transitory than first believed and will remain much longer than assumed.

Federal Reserve Governor Waller addressed the current level of inflation and described it as a “big snowfall that will stay on the ground for a while, rather than a one-inch dusting.” His statements highlighted the intrinsic and mounting concern by Federal Reserve members that inflationary rates have gotten way out of hand and added, “When snow is expected to be on the ground for a week, you may want to act sooner and shovel the sidewalks and plow the streets.”

He expressed the need to adjust the tapering process and speed up so that the Federal Reserve can react to inflationary pressures earlier than June, which is when tapering was expected to conclude.

“To me, the inflation data are starting to look more like a big snowfall that will stay on the ground for a while, and that development is affecting my expectations of the level of monetary accommodation that is needed going forward.”

While Waller is a voting member of the Federal Reserve, he is only one member. He is in the more hawkish camp in a divided Federal Reserve. The more dovish Fed members continue to express the current monetary policy of the central bank in regards to his tapering policy should remain intact, thereby waiting until the end of June before adjusting their monetary policy.

Add to that is the uncertainty as to whether or not Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be appointed to a second term. President Joe Biden has acknowledged that he will make a decision public as to who will head the Federal Reserve within the upcoming days. Also, President Biden might need to fill as many as four more new Federal Reserve members at the central bank’s seven-member board of governors.

Typically, uncertainty is a solid fuel that will move gold in a bullish manner. However, uncertainty about the voting members of the Federal Reserve and the number of upcoming changes that might occur is unsettling to market participants because a large and dramatic change of voting members creates ambiguities as to how they will proceed with their current monetary policy and plans to normalize interest rates as the economy in the United States rebuilds.

Because their dual mandate and necessary criteria to begin to raise rates is based upon maximum employment and in inflationary rate approximately at 2%. It was the recent shift putting maximum employment as a priority in place of inflationary rates that has backed the Federal Reserve into a corner. Because the only tool in their toolbox that they have available to decrease the inflation that is not transitory is by raising rates.

The Fed will have its last FOMC meeting in mid-December, and before that the PCE inflationary index for last month will be released on November 24. These two events will be critically important in determining the sentiment of the Federal Reserve in regards to its current monetary policy.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

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David

Is Fed making a mistake? Big market risk ahead as gold looks to $1,900 – analysts

Is Fed making a mistake? Big market risk ahead as gold looks to $1,900 – analysts

ccording to analysts, with all eyes on the U.S. President Joe Biden's Federal Reserve Chair pick, gold is waiting for its next catalyst to take it to $1,900 an ounce, with markets eyeing year-end volatility.

Gold is wrapping up this trading week down 1%, with December Comex gold futures last trading at $1,848.60, down 0.69% on the day.

One of the main events the market is watching very closely is Biden's Fed Chair pick, which could be announced as soon as this weekend. According to PredictIt.org, the current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is leading the race, with Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard in the second top spot.

"Looking to next week, we are going to get Biden's decision. Two months ago, Powell was the likely choice. But we got the trading scandal among Fed members and progressives got upset with how Powell handled the regulatory side," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. "Now, it seems that Powell's renomination might not be a foregone confusion. If we do get a surprise and Brainard becomes the next Fed Chair, it will have a dramatic shift in short-term yields. That's a big risk ahead. Key factor what happens with yields early next week."

If Biden were to choose Brainard, gold would climb higher as the initial reaction would see those Fed rate hike expectations pushed back even further, Moya explained. However, if Powell is renominated, it doesn't necessarily mean gold would sell off dramatically. "Risk is still to the upside," he said.

Choosing Brainard will represent uncertainty for the markets, said Pepperstone's head of research Chris Weston.

"As the well-used term goes, markets hate uncertainty – and a Brainard appointment, at a time of impending monetary policy change, represents a small rise in uncertainty that many in the market could do without – well, except for those who like volatility which is most short-term traders," Weston said. "Still, my base case is we are headed into a period of higher volatility regardless, with a wild December ahead of us. Where we see the U.S. Treasury exhausting measures by mid-December and the U.S. debt ceiling potentially becoming problematic, just as the FOMC meeting sees the central bank likely announce they are accelerating the pace of tapering from $15b to $20-$25b."

Next week's other potential hurdle is holiday trading, with markets winding down to celebrate the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. "Trading activity will be thin, and we could have some exaggerated moves here. We are not going to see any new trends emerge next week unless we get the Brainard surprise. Otherwise, gold could be stuck in that consolidation pattern," Moya said.

Gold will see choppy trading as the market tries to determine how dovish the Fed will end up being next year as inflation pressures build, he added.

"The price action is pretty much warranted to be choppy whether we wait to see whether or not the Fed will have to bow to inflationary pressures. Waiting for next few months of pricing reports to get a better handle on it," Moya noted. "Until we have a firmer handle on what the near-term outlook is for the central bank, it will be a choppy environment for gold."

Any pullback in gold price is likely to be viewed as a buying opportunity. "While headwinds could re-emerge, downside risks to growth, plus elevated inflation and our expectations for the USD to weaken and real yields to remain deeply negative, suggest price dips are likely to be viewed as good buying opportunities," said Standard Chartered precious metal analyst Suko Cooper.

If gold drops below $1,840 an ounce next week, the precious metal could be at risk of a further selloff, said strategists at TD Securities.

"The yellow metal [is] vulnerable to a deeper consolidation if prices fail to hold above the $1,840/oz region. After all, while the yellow metal remains an ideal hedge against rising stagflationary winds, the tug-of-war between high inflation prints and market pricing for central bank hikes hasn't definitively concluded," they wrote.

Next week, gold is likely to remain between $1,840 and $1,890 an ounce, Moya said. "I would not be surprised if we tested the $1,890 area and came back to where we are right now. If we see some broader weakness on gold, there should be fairly strong support at $1,840-$1,850."

Also, bitcoin below $60,000 might be good news for gold. "Risk of further weakness for bitcoin is still there. If we do see another decline in bitcoin, that in itself could be great news for gold," Moya noted.

As 2021 wraps up, traders will shift their attention away from rate hikes and focus more on growth. "The Fed could be making a mistake in removing this monetary accommodation. That's a big risk. Leading up to January, the inflation report will be a big one. Gold should see strong support here," Moya stated.

Over the next month, gold is bound to make a move to $1,900 an ounce as investors come back to bullion for inflation hedges amid a flight to safety with some additional concerns coming from Europe's COVID flare-up and the dovish European Central Bank. "Gold will see some underlying support there. And the holiday season will provide some underlying support," Moya added.

On the radar next week

The big day to watch next week is Wednesday, with the FOMC meeting minutes, the U.S. GDP release, personal spending, durable goods, PCE price index, and new home sales all scheduled to be released.

"The Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. means a short week with the data flow concentrated on Wednesday. The highlight may well be the minutes to the November 3rd FOMC meeting when the Federal Reserve announced the start of QE tapering," said ING chief international economist James Knightley. "In terms of the data, we expect a modest upward revision to 3Q GDP growth, but the October personal spending will be more significant as it tells us how the fourth quarter started."
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

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David