Bitcoin – Stuck in a Rut and in Dire Need of a Break Out

Bitcoin is in the green early but continues to struggle to break out from the current rut. A sell-off could be on the cards if Bitcoin doesn’t make a move soon.

Bitcoin rose by just 0.07% on Thursday. Partially reversing a 0.2% fall from Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $3,948.3.

A choppy start to the day saw Bitcoin rise from a morning low $3,929.9 to a morning high $3,990.5 before easing back. Holding above the first major support level at $3,923.33, Bitcoin broke through the first major resistance level at $3,970.83.

Through the early afternoon, there was another spell of volatility. Bitcoin slid to an intraday low $3,869.3 before striking an intraday high $4,004.0.

Bitcoin tumbled back through the first major support level at $3,923.33 and second major support level at $3,900.47. The bounce back saw Bitcoin break back through the first major resistance level at $3,970.83 and second major resistance level at $3,995.47 before sliding back.

Range-bound through the rest of the day, Bitcoin failed to break back through the major resistance levels. For the bulls, a hold above the major support levels through the day was positive. Failing to hold onto $4,000 levels on the day continues to be a red flag.

Elsewhere

Across the top 10 cryptos, it was a mixed bag for the majors. Stellar’s Lumen and Binance led the way down with losses of 1.9% and 1.24% respectively. On the Upside, Bitcoin Cash ABC and Litecoin were the front runners, gaining 1.61% and 1.02% respectively.

While Stellar’s Lumen led the way down on Thursday, it was leading the way through the current week. In spite of Thursday’s pullback, Stellar’s Lumen was up 6.03% Monday through Thursday.

Newfound love for Stellar’s Lumen was attributed by some to a change to Stellar Lumen’s logo. Either way, 7 consecutive days in the green before Thursday’s pullback has been impressive. For the current month, Stellar’s Lumen is up by 26%.

Binance is the only major to have outperformed Stellar’s Lumen in March. 5 consecutive weeks in the green has given Binance a 45% jump for the current month. Unlikely Stellar’s Lumen, however, the Binance Launchpad platform can be attributed to its recent bull-run.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.28% to $3,959.5. Moves through the early morning saw Bitcoin rise from a morning low $3,948.4 to a high $3,970.0 before easing back. The day’s major support and resistance levels were left untested early on.

For the day ahead

A hold above $3,940 levels through the morning would support a run at $4,000 levels before any pullback. Barring a broad-based market rally, we would expect the first major resistance level at $4,011.77 to pin back more material gains on the day. Bitcoin would need support from the broader market to break through to $4,000 levels. Bitcoin could slide to sub-$3,500 should it continue struggle to break out from $4,000.

Failure to hold above $3,940 levels could see Bitcoin fall to $3,800 levels to test the first major support level at $3,877.07 before any recovery. Barring a broad-based crypto sell-off, however, we would expect Bitcoin to steer clear of the second major support level at $3,805.83. A broad-based sell-off could see Bitcoin fall through the second major support level to $3,700 levels before any recovery.

 

Bob Mason

 

David