Gold and silver are mixed leading into the European open

Gold and silver are mixed leading into the European open

Gold is trading marginally lower heading into the European open and this comes after a 0.32% fall in yesterday's session. Silver performing slightly better trading 0.30% higher but this also comes after a drop on Monday's session.

After inheriting a negative close from Wall Street bourses in the Asia Pac area are pretty mixed. The ASX (-0.68%) and Nikkei 225 (-1.97%) took a tumble but India's Nifty (0.25%) and South Korea's Kospi (0.68%) both performed well while the Shanghai Composite traded flat.

In the FX markets, the dollar index fell 0.11% and the biggest mover was AUD/USD which rose 0.67%. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper moved another 1% higher and spot WTI also moved 0.86% in the same direction.

In terms of news stories, UK March jobless claims change came in at 10.1k vs 86.6k prior. The unemployment rate (Feb) also fell to 4.9% vs the analyst consensus of 5.1%. There was also German PPI data this morning and it continued to rise to reach 0.9% m/m for Match (exp 0.6% prior 0.7%).

Following the Fed's rhetoric, the RBA April monetary policy meeting minutes noted that unemployment too high. The RBA also said they would "reasonably" do what they can to support the Australian economy.

The PBOC sets China's 1-year loan prime rate at 3.85%, 5-year at 4.65%. Both are unchanged and this was expected.

Sticking with China, Premier Li also warn other countries against meddling in other nations affairs.

There was UK media report that "Russia 'planning large-scale warship assault on Ukraine water supplies'". US expresses deep concerns re Russia's plans to block parts of the Black Sea, seems the situation is escalating pretty quickly.

White House issues a statement saying infrastructure talks were fruitful. This comes after some reports yesterday that the U.S. administration where set to talk about how to section off parts of the bill.

In Australia, Rio Tino said their iron ore shipments increased but they also noted that production moved slightly lower. Brazil's Vale reported iron ore output of 68.0 tons vs expectations of 72 tons.

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include NZ CPI and GDT. We could also hear from German Buba Vice President Buch and ECB's de Cos.
 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

 

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

 

David

Is gold price prepping for a major move higher this week?

Is gold price prepping for a major move higher this week?

Gold could be on the brink of another rally as it tops key resistance levels and moves towards $1,800 an ounce, according to analysts.

The precious metal is wrapping up its second consecutive week of gains after a positive start to Q2 amid a weaker U.S. dollar and retreating U.S. 10-year Treasury yields. At the time of writing, June Comex gold futures were trading at $1,779.90, up 2% on the week.

"The move in gold has been predominately driven by the U.S. dollar, which is continuing to drop. The dollar index is at 91.5 right now. Very important to note, we've seen a pretty significant decline from the 10-year yield and along the curve broadly. All of that has driven gold to the upside," TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News.

The momentum is definitely on gold's side right now, RJO Futures senior commodities broker Daniel Pavilonis told Kitco News.

"If we can close above $1,815 next week, we have a good shot at a very momentous move again to the highs. Possibly continue gold's secular bull market," Pavilonis said. "Markets have calmed down a bit. We had so much pressure from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank trying to ease tensions in the yields, and it worked. And what they have been doing behind the scenes is also working, giving metals some reprieve."

The weaker U.S. dollar has finally allowed gold to step out of its tight trading range, said FXTM market analyst Han Tan. "The greenback's support has been eroded with 10-year Treasury yields moving below the psychologically important 1.60% mark, which in turn has allowed spot gold to break above its 50-day simple moving average for the first time since early February," Tan said.

Next weeks also marks the Federal Reserve media blackout period ahead of its monetary policy announcement on April 28. ING said that no additional Fed speakers could mean a weaker U.S. dollar, which is beneficial for gold. "A quieter week for U.S. data and the Fed in blackout period could favor a continuation of benign market trends and a slightly weaker USD," the ING strategists wrote.

There is no significant resistance for gold until the $1,800, said LaSalle Futures Group senior market strategist Charlie Nedoss. "The $1,809.40 is the 100-day moving average, and over time we will hit it."

It was key that the precious metal didn't close below $1,736.40 — this week's lows, Nedoss added. "A lot of this has been data-driven," he said.

The market is also recalibrating after pricing in too much inflation too soon, Melek explained.

"Inflation expectations have been a bit too rich, and they have been going down. It suggests that the market recalibrated its view. We've seen too much of an increase along the yield curve in its expectation of higher inflation, and now we are paring it back. Also, global economic concerns are playing a role as some countries who don't have a robust vaccine deployment plan could have a negative impact on the global recovery," he said.

In the meantime, the algorithmic community has been short on gold, but traders need to watch the $1,808 level for a change in that trend, Melek noted. "Prices just north of $1,800 would catalyze the covering of a significant portion of current CTA short positions."

However, it is too early to get too excited when it comes to gold's future price action, Melek warned. "We passed the 50-day moving average, the next level here is around north of $1,800."

Before moving much higher, there needs to be a confirmation that the rise in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yields is contained.

"The big battle here will be between the Fed and the market. The Fed is saying that any inflation will likely be transitory due to base effects, while the market might start to worry that they are behind the curve. We are still waiting for the Fed statement to tell us that they will stay put," Melek stated.

 

Data to watch

The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate announcements are on the radar next week. They come just one week ahead of the Federal Reserve's April 27-28 monetary policy meeting.

"The ECB will look through any temporary increases in headline inflation and will not tolerate significant moves in bond yields unless they are the result of improved growth prospects. The bank's decision to front-load asset purchases at the last meeting was meant to cap the rise in yields, which have tracked moves in U.S. Treasuries," ING strategists said.

Markets will also be eyeing the latest U.S. jobless claims data and existing home sales, both due out on Thursday, as well as Friday's U.S. manufacturing PMI and new home sales.

Since the macro data will be quieter than usual next week, analysts are also carefully monitoring the progress of U.S. President Joe Biden's infrastructure plan.

"There is little sign of bi-partisanship on the $2tn package, and it seems that the Democrats are going to push it through the reconciliation process to avoid the need for 60 Senators to agree to put it to a vote. Nonetheless, not all Democrats are fully on board, meaning we could yet see changes to the package, especially surrounding the taxation part," said ING chief international economist James Knightley.

 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

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Gold and silver prices spike, but can rally last? Jim Wyckoff on the long-awaited bull market

Gold and silver prices spike, but can rally last? Jim Wyckoff on the long-awaited bull market

Momentum has shifted back in gold and silver’s favor for now, said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco News.

“When we last talked, the markets, both gold and silver, were in a near-term price downtrend. Remember, we talked about key support levels that had to hold to keep prices from accelerating to the downside and those key price support levels, technical levels, did indeed hold,” Wyckoff told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News.

On silver, Wyckoff said that the silver market has simply been following gold’s price.

Wyckoff added that this rebound is likely to continue in the short-term.

“The charts suggest that they will [continue moving upward] on a near-term basis. Right now, with the upside breakouts we’ve seen on the daily charts, now the price action we’ve seen in silver, the path of least resistance is sideways to higher,” he said.

 

By David Lin

For Kitco News

 

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Gold and silver are flat leading into the EU open

Gold and silver are flat leading into the EU open

Gold and silver are both trading flat leading into the EU open this morning. Gold had a pretty impressive session yesterday rising 1.58% and pushing past the previous wave high on the daily chart. Silver also did pretty well and moved back into the middle of the long term consolidation area between $21.66/oz and $30.09oz to trade at $25.77/oz.

After inheriting a positive risk tone from the U.S. bourses in the Asia Pac area traded well overnight. The ASX (0.07%), Nikkei 225 (0.14%) and Shanghai Composite (0.77%) all traded higher.

In FX markets, GBP/USD was the biggest mover overnight and moved 0.30% in the red. Elsewhere after some mild USD strength, the dollar index trades 0.07% higher. In the rest of the commodities complex, spot WTI trades 0.57% higher while copper lost 0.73% of its value overnight.

In terms of news stories, there was lots of Chinese data overnight. GDP for Q1 2021 came in at +0.6% q/q (expected +1.4%) and the March industrial production also missed expectations to print at +14.1% y/y (expected +18%). The Chinese unemployment rate moved lower to 5.3% from the last reading of 5.5%. The good news came from the retails sales data which rose to 32.5% vs the analyst consensus of 28%.

More from China as the nations US Treasury holdings hit US$1.104tln, highest since the middle of 2019.

Turkey has banned the use of cryptocurrencies to purchase goods and services. The price action in Bitcoin reflected the news as BTC/USD fell 2.76% leading into the EU open.

We also heard from some central bank members. Fed’s Daly is concerned about the frequency of Federal Reserve market interventions. While Fed's Mester noted the economy has a long way to go until sustainable recovery. Mester also stated that she is not concerned about inflation getting too high.

The White House's infrastructure bill could be passed in small bills and congress will work out the path moving forward (according to U.S. press).

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include EU CPI data, U.S. building permits data, Michigan data and comments from BoE's Woods and Cunliffe.

 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News
 

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Gold and silver start the EU session higher

Gold and silver start the EU session higher

Gold and silver have both recovered after some strength in the US session yesterday. Overnight gold is trading just above flat while silver has moved 0.57% in the black. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper is 0.10% higher and spot WTI has moved up 0.92%.

In the Asia Pac area, the ASX (0.66%) and Shanghai Composite (0.42%) closed higher but the Nikkei 225 bucked the trend to closed -0.44% in the red. This came after another record close for the S&P 500.

In FX markets, the dollar index trades 0.14% lower with the biggest beneficiary being NZD as NZD/USD moved 0.70% higher. The next biggest mover was AUD/USD which trades just up over half a percent. Bitcoin continues to trade well and is currently at $64,482.22.

In terms of news, BOJ's Kuroda stuck to his usual stance and said the bank will persistently continue with powerful easing towards 2% inflation target.

Sticking with central bankers, ECB's Villeroy says the ECB could possibly look to end PEPP purchases in March next year.

The RBNZ kept rates and their funding for lending scheme unchanged overnight. They also said they are willing to cut the OCR if required.

French minister says EMA likely to issue new guidance on J&J vaccine today. This comes after the US halted the use due to some blood clotting cases.

Goldman Sachs have reiterated their stance on iron ore and say they have a negative outlook for the iron ore price 6-12 months out.

China's Li said China and the US should step up communication, manage differences, respect each other.

On the data front, Australian Westpac Consumer Confidence Index for April came in at +6.2% m/m (prior +2.6%) and Japanese Core Machinery Orders for February fell to -8.5% m/m (vs. expected 2.5%).

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include the IEA monthly report, EU industrial production and weekly DoE's. There are lots of central bank speakers including Fed Chair Powell, Fed's Clarida, Bostic, Kaplan, Williams, ECB's Lagarde, Schnabel, Panetta, de Guindos and BoE's Haskel.
 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

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Gold, silver set back as chart-based sellers step in

Gold, silver set back as chart-based sellers step in

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, as the shorter-term futures traders are again pressing the short side of the markets to start the trading week, amid a lack of fresh, markets-moving fundamental news. June gold futures were last down $13.40 at $1,731.60 and May Comex silver was last down $0.505 at $24.82 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed slightly weaker at midday, on a routine corrective pullback from recent gains that put the indexes at record highs last week.

Markets did not paying much attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's comments on the "60 Minutes" TV show Sunday evening, in which has reiterated the U.S. central bank will continue to support the economy until its fully recovered from the pandemic. He said it will "be a while" before the Fed raises interest rates.

Middle East tensions have up-ticked early this week on reports that a major uranium-enrichment facility in Iran was hit by a damaging cyberattack, likely coming from Israel. Major damage was reported. Still, markets showed no significant reaction.

In another sign of rising and possibly problematic price inflation from the world's major economies, reports say China is considering implementing price controls due to rising commodity prices. Reports also say China's central bank wants to tighten lending standards. Speaking of inflation, the U.S. consumer price index report for March is due out Tuesday morning, and will be extra closely scrutinized following last Friday's hotter-than-expected producer price index report.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index slightly down. Nymex crude oil prices are firmer and trading around $59.65 a barrel. Meantime, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is presently fetching around 1.65%.

There was no major U.S. economic released Monday.

Technically, June gold futures prices are so far seeing a routine downside correction from recent gains after prices late last week hit a five-week high. However, the bulls need to step up and show power soon to keep the technical ground they have gained recently. The gold bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,746.20 and then at $1,750.00. First support is seen at$1,725.00 and then at last week's low of $1,721.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

p>May silver futures prices are also seeing a corrective pullback from recent gains. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $26.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the March low of $23.74. First resistance is seen at $25.00 and then at today's high of $25.33. Next support is seen at $24.50 and then at $24.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 320 points at 400.80 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trending mildly lower for six weeks. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 420.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 384.90 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 405.90 cents and then at 410.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 398.80 cents and then at 395.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
 

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

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David

This could push gold price to $1,800 this week

This could push gold price to $1,800 this week

Gold has a chance to break above its key resistance level of $1,750 an ounce this week. Here's what investors need to watch, according to analysts.

The yellow metal had a very decent start to the second quarter, with prices up around 1% on the week. June Comex gold futures last traded at $1,746 an ounce. Earlier in the week, the precious metal was up almost $50 since last Friday as it traded close to the $1,760 an ounce level.

After being bombarded with the Federal Reserve news coverage this week, markets seem to understand that the Fed will be waiting until next year to be proven wrong on its transitory inflation stance, OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. And this shift in sentiment could cap the rapid rise in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yields.

"What was different this week was that the Fed seems convinced that we will have to wait until next year to be proven wrong on inflation. Prior to this, markets were trying to hedge as far as this inflation risk. Now, this will get pushed much further down the road," Moya said.

The change in sentiment could be supportive for gold going forward, especially ahead of the U.S. inflation data on Tuesday, which could also surge after a surprisingly strong PPI data on Friday.

"U.S. PPI jumped 1% month-on-month to leave the annual headline rate at 4.2% – the highest since September 2011. This was well ahead of the consensus forecast of 0.5%," said ING chief international economist James Knightley. "This will add to the upside risks for CPI."

A stronger-than-expected CPI number could trigger another rally in yields. But if gold can hold around the $1,750 level, then there is potential for the yellow metal to recover to $1,800 an ounce, analysts told Kitco News.

"If we do get hotter inflation readings next week, it could be a catalyst for higher Treasury yields, which would be bad for gold. But once we pass that event and if gold is still near $1,750, that would be a green light for prices to rise higher. There could be more upside potential for gold after the CPI data," Moya said.

The good news for gold is that it might have already hit its lows during the first quarter of 2021.

"Looks like the bottom appears to be in place for gold. The Fed removed the big risk as far as yields surging. We are going to see an environment where gold could continue to rise," Moya said. "And even though we might not see the August record highs, gold could make a move towards $2,000 again."

It is still too early to decide how the economic recovery will evolve, Moya said. "There are still too many risks in place. Plus, once the economic recovery picks up in the rest of the world, we'll see significant dollar weakness."

The technical outlook is showing a double-bottom in gold, said Walsh Trading co-director Sean Lusk. "The low from March 31 and March 8 form a classic double bottom. The $1,759 level is providing a bit of resistance. If gold breaks it, the precious metal can go to $1,800," he said.

Other supportive drivers for gold are stronger physical demand and renewed central bank gold buying, strategists at TD Securities said.

"Strong Chinese and Indian demand along with renewed interest from central banks have all delivered sufficient support for the yellow metal to hold onto its pandemic-era uptrend," the strategist said. "The breadth of central banks purchasing gold could potentially rise substantially considering the massive increase in sovereign debt and the rapid pace of money supply growth in reserve currency countries. A sustained rise in official interest could provide further support for the yellow metal."

However, new record highs are unlikely for gold until safe-haven demand continues to go towards cryptos, Moya noted. "There has been some diversification away from gold. Crypto madness didn't blow up yet. If the crypto bubble pops, it is a game-changer for gold. But that is difficult to gauge. The $2,250 level could be realistic for gold if we were to see the crypto bubble burst," he said.

Blue Line Futures chief market strategist Phillip Streible was more bearish, noting that gold cannot do well in the current environment defined by fast-paced growth.

"Gold only does well when you have rising inflation and slower growth. We are not in that environment," Streible said. "If gold falls below $1,700 an ounce, we are buyers at $1,680," he said.

The only wildcard that could push gold higher right now is a flare-up in geopolitical tensions, according to Streible.
 

Data to watch

Tuesday's CPI number is forecasted to jump to 2.5% year-on-year in March. Over the summer, ING projects inflation to get close to 4% in light of a stimulus-fuelled economy.

"Inflation could stay closer to 3% for much of the next couple of years and in an environment of strong growth and rapid job creation it adds to our sense that risks are increasingly skewed towards a late 2022 rate hike rather than 2024 as the Fed currently favors," Knightley said.

Other data to watch next week include U.S. jobless claims, retail sales, NY Empire State manufacturing index, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and industrial production, all scheduled to be released on Thursday.

Also, markets will be paying close attention to Friday's building permits and housing starts.

 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Kinesis Money Sytem – Manages your Gold and Silver – Find out More

David

Gold price kicks off Q2 with gains, but can it break out?

Gold price kicks off Q2 with gains, but can it break out?

The second quarter is already looking better for gold. The precious metal was up almost $50 dollars during the first week of April as it moved past its key resistance level of $1,750. But what happens next is critical — can gold finally hold above this level as analysts cite strength in the metal's latest move higher?

 

Kinesis Money Sytem – Manages your Gold and Silver – Find out More

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Gold futures retrace much of this week’s gains

Gold futures retrace much of this week’s gains

Gold futures basis the most active June 2021 Comex contract is currently fixed at $1744.10, after closing yesterday at$1756.50, the highest price since February 26. Gold futures basis the most active June 2021 Comex contract lost $14.10 in trading today.

Dollar strength was a minor component in today’s price decline. Today the dollar index gained 0.111 points or 0.12%. The vast majority of today’s decline was attributed to market participants bidding the precious yellow metal lower. Interestingly this was the exact opposite of yesterday’s price gains with the majority of gains due to market participants actively buying that dip and dollar weakness contributing only a fractional component of yesterday’s $14.90 gain.

Silver basis the most active May 2021 Comex contract lost $0.26 today after gaining $0.28 on Thursday. Currently silver futures are fixed at $25.325.

Bitcoin futures which are traded on the Chicago Mercantile continued in their price ascent, gaining $520 today and is currently fixed at $58,675 per coin.

While yesterday’s gains in the precious metals and U.S. equities were a direct result of the minutes released from last month’s FOMC meeting, the minutes underscored the current mandate of the Federal Reserve which has not changed since interest rates were dropped to between 0 and ¼%. Additionally, they continue to add $120 billion per month to their asset balance sheets through purchasing United States bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

The Federal Reserve continues to be aligned with the majority of central banks worldwide, with both the world bank and the Federal Reserve continuing to have an extremely accommodative monetary policy. In fact, on Tuesday the IMF backed the Fed’s decision to be patient and continue to keep interest rates extremely low with the intent of maintaining the current interest rate for years to come.

The International Monetary Fund through the central banks of its member nations continues to its intent to maintain an extremely accommodative monetary policy. In their latest global financial stability report they sent a strong message that there continues to be a need for the current dovish demeanor of central banks worldwide. Both entities are acutely aware that we live in a global economic world in which positive movement in any major country has a spillover effect to other countries and that raising rates too quickly could easily stifle the economic rebound witnessed in the United States and to a lesser extent in Europe.

Chairman Jerome Powell’s statement continues to propose that any rise in inflation is transitory and will be short-lived.

In disagreement, William Watts wrote an article in MarketWatch yesterday. The author spoke about his deep concern that there is the biggest inflation scare in 40 years which will become apparent extremely soon.

“It’s unclear whether inflation will see a lasting comeback, but a booming, stimulus-fed economy rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic seems all but certain to send some near-term inflationary shock waves through financial markets in coming months.” He cites Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategies at Jeffrey’s in a note written on April 4 that states “there has been a sudden surge in demand following a supply shock which is a classic recipe for a pickup in inflation.”

Of course, if inflation does begin to ratchet up higher it will have an extremely bullish impact on gold and silver because it will devalue the U.S. dollar which has an inverse relationship between the price of those two precious metals. He also warned that investors should be paired for the biggest inflation scare in America on the reopening of the economy since the early 1980s when former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker crushed double-digit inflation by the late 1970s.

Which leads to the question he ponders, which is just how long-lasting will inflationary bout continue? And how the Federal Reserve will respond should that occur? Higher inflation will lead to higher gold and silver prices and have tremendous bearish implications for U.S. equities.

The Fed has also agreed that they will let inflation run hot in lieu of their primary mandate (which is maximum employment) above its former target of 2%. Also, members of the Federal Reserve have stated that they will let inflation run hot for an unspecified amount of time.

Unquestionably upticks in inflation will take gold and silver higher so the question becomes which hypothesis is correct? The analysts or the chairman of the Federal Reserve?

 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

 

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Gold futures surged higher on dollar weakness and inflation concerns

Gold futures surged higher on dollar weakness and inflation concerns

Gold futures basis the most active June 2021 Comex contract is currently fixed at $1756.50 after factoring in today’s strong gains of $14.90 (+0.86%). Dollar weakness was partially responsible for today’s gains, but the majority of gains were due to market participants bidding the precious yellow metal higher as active buyers. Silver basis the most active May 2021 Comex contract gained $0.28, and is currently fixed at $25.525.

In both gold futures and spot pricing it was dollar weakness that partially supported higher gold and silver pricing. The dollar index lost 40 points, or -0.40% and is currently fixed at 92.10. According to the KGX (Kitco Gold Index) spot gold is currently fixed at $1755.80 which is a net gain of $18.20 on the day. On closer inspection market participants bid the precious metal higher by $11.10. Concurrently dollar weakness contributed an additional $7.10 of value to a troy ounce of gold.

Bitcoin futures which trade on the Chicago Mercantile gained $1735 today, remaining extremely strong with a single coin valued at $58,045.

Much of today’s gains in the precious metals and U.S. equities is directly tied to minutes of last month’s FOMC meeting, which were released yesterday. In addition, the Federal Reserve is not standing alone in their mandate to continue to provide extremely accommodative rates vis-à-vis their Fed’s funds rate which is currently set between 0 and ¼%. Additionally, they continue to add an additional $120 billion per month to their asset balance sheets through purchasing United States bonds and mortgage-backed securities.

The Federal Reserve is not alone in its monetary policy mandate. On Tuesday the IMF backed the Fed’s decision to be patient and not rock the boat by moving interest rates up higher too quickly. The International Monetary Fund made it crystal clear that they intend also to maintain an extremely accommodative monetary policy. In their latest global financial stability report they sent a strong message that there continues to be a need for the current dovish demeanor of central banks worldwide. Both entities are acutely aware that we live in a global economic world in which positive movement in any major country has a spillover effect to other countries, and that raising rates too quickly could easily stifle the economic rebound witnessed in the United States and to a lesser extent in Europe.

Today Chairman Jerome Powell attended a virtual spring meeting sponsored by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. He acknowledged that there are a number of factors coming together to support a brighter Outlook for the economy in the United States. Stating that those factors have been instrumental in putting the nation “on track to allow a full reopening of the economy fairly soon.” However, he also spoke about the caveat saying that many Americans who were out of work will struggle to find new jobs because some industries will likely be smaller than they were before the pandemic, as well as a statement saying that “It’s important to remember we’re not going back to the same economy. This will be a different economy.”

While the IMF and the Federal Reserve both continue to maintain their extremely accommodative policies as such, they could have a profound and negative impact on both the euro and United States dollar. This most likely will result in both of those currencies losing value over time and that in turn has created new concerns about rising inflation rates.

 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

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