Gold and silver are trading higher leading into the European open

Both gold and silver are trading higher leading into the European open. The yellow metal is 0.19% up trading at $1873.90/oz while silver has pushed 0.25% higher to trade at $27.78/oz. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper is 0.82% higher and spot WTI is trading just over half a percent in the black. Decent manufacturing numbers so far but the U.K. shines brightest

The manufacturing PMI's across the world have been pretty good so far but there does seem to be a slight struggle to keep up with the numbers from the last month (accept the U.K.). We must remember that a number above 50 still represents expansion so overall the news has been very positive. It could have also been expected that the number may have been slightly lower in comparison to the ones seen in April as that was the month that most countries started to come to terms with the move out of the pandemic.

As we know many goods and products are sent out of Asia. India is currently in the midst of a massive rise in cases and deaths. Some raw materials suppliers have been struggling with getting products out of India and this is adding to woes as shipping costs have risen too.

Delving deeper into the German number, IHS Markit said “While the demand picture for manufacturing remains positive, we are getting more reports from businesses of supply shortages curbing production levels and weighing on new orders due to forced downtime at customers. On top of this, there is also the issue of an associated surge in costs, with supply shortages pushing up factory input prices in May at a rate that easily surpasses anything seen before in the manufacturing survey’s 25-year history. Inflationary pressures are increasingly spreading to services as well, pushing the overall measures of input costs and output prices both to record highs.”.

The overall number beat expectations with some good results from some of the member states. The report confirmed this as it said "it the rest of the region where the strongest increase in business activity was recorded in May, with growth outside of France and Germany hitting the fastest since the start of 2018 thanks to a record jump in manufacturing output and the largest increase in service sector activity since February 2018.".

The report added that the Eurozone economy revives as demand surges at the fastest rate for 15 years. Factories also reported that new order growth waned slightly for a second month running, but remained the third-highest in the survey’s history and strong enough to generate a new record rise in uncompleted backorders for a third straight month. With raw materials prices rising it seems that the market needs to keep a close eye on inflation figures moving forward.

In the U.K., the private sector has signaled the fastest output growth for more than two decades. Business expectations for the next 12 months edged up to a new record high during May. The manufacturing PMI number reached its highest level since the survey began in January 1992. The report also said new orders increased at the strongest pace since data collection began almost 30 years ago (index at 69.1 in May), exceeding the previous record that had stood since July 1994. Seem like the U.K. is in an economic boom coming out of pandemic lockdowns. Is this what we could expect from other areas in the world?.

 

Australian Manufacturing PMI 59.9 vs previous 59.7

Japanese Manufacturing PMI (May) 52.5 vs previous 53.6

French Manufacturing PMI (May) 59.2 vs expected 58.5 previous 58.9

German Manufacturing PMI (May) 64.0 vs expected 65.9 previous 66.2

EU Manufacturing PMI (May) 62.8 vs expected 62.5 previous 62.9

U.K.Manufacturing PMI (May) 66.1 vs expected 60.7 previous 60.7

Later on U.S. Manufacturing PMI (May) is expected to hit 60.2 with the previous reading at 60.5
 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News
 

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David

They’re back, gold bulls return with a mission, to take gold higher

They’re back! Beginning at the end of March, when gold bulls witnessed gold prices continue to trade lower, hitting a bottom at $1640 there was an air of pessimism that surrounded them. Although gold began to trade-off of those lows by the end of March, gold retested the lows at that price point creating a double bottom.

Considering that the market had been in a deep and defined multi-month price decline after hitting the all-time record high of $2088 in August of last year, market participants witnessed approximately a $500 decline. Concurrently data was suggesting that the economic scenario following one of the worst recessions the United States has witnessed were shifting. Employment numbers were gaining strength, the GDP was growing and cryptocurrencies were in a massive bull run.

However slow and steadily gold prices began to climb from the low of March 31, which came in just below $1680. In the case of the current rally there was no parabolic move. There was no single moment when traders witnessed the beginning of a long and sustained rally. Rather the rally that is currently underway occurred as a series of stair steps in which gold prices would gain value which would be immediately followed by sideways action in which gold would form a base at the new and higher price point and on some occasions decline slightly. However, slow and steady may not be the best way to describe a market which is gained just shy of $200 in the last two and half months.

There were a few exceptional days in which we saw gold rise in double digits, and today was one of those days. Make no mistake there were outside markets that had minor influences but the overwhelming force driving gold prices higher work traders and investors buying the precious metal.

As of 6 PM EST spot gold is currently fixed at $1866.20. The screen-print of the Kitco gold index is a snapshot of prices that were taken at 5 o’clock. Gold was trading approximately $0.40 above current pricing at $1866.40. Although there were fractional tailwinds provided by a falling dollar that only amounted to gains of $2.20. The additional gain of $20.30 was due to traders bidding the precious metal higher resulting in today’s gains of $22.50.

Gold futures basis, the most active Comex contract, posted a gain of $29.00. Today’s $29 gain took the most active futures contract to $1867.60. Today’s gains indicate that gold at least for now, no longer remains range bound and has broken above its strong resistance level which occurred at approximately $1852, the 200-day moving average. The significance of that move is that market technicians view a stock or commodity above the 200-day moving average as in a long-term bullish trend and below that moving average in a long-term bearish trend.

While I doubt there are champagne bottles popping throughout trading houses and investment firms, there is a reason to rejoice for those gold bulls that have waited for a sign that the long retracement truly ended in March with a double bottom formation and now has a realistic probability to once again challenge $1900 per ounce.

 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

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David

Gold prices today jump again, cross key level – silver rates surge

Gold rates today: On MCX, prices were near ₹48,000 per 10 gram

Gold rates today: On MCX, prices were near ₹48,000 per 10 gram

In global markets, gold rates today hit a 3-month high

Weaker US dollar and a dip in Treasury yields boosted gold and silver

Gold and silver prices in India moved higher today, in tandem with uptick in global precious metal rates. On MCX, gold futures were up 0.7% to ₹48,003 per 10 gram while silver rates jumped 1.2% to ₹71,940 per kg. In the previous session, gold had jumped 0.5% while silver had surged 0.9%. In global markets, gold rates hit a 3-month high, boosted by a weaker US dollar and a dip in Treasury yields. Spot gold was up 0.6% at $1,852.39 per ounce.

The dollar index fell to 90.293 before trading flat at 90.370, making gold less expensive for other currency holders. Meanwhile, benchmark US 10-year Treasury yields steadied after hitting a one-month high hit last week. Lower bond yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing gold.

Gold advances as investors weigh bond yields, retail sales

Gold advances as investors weigh bond yields, retail sales

Among other precious metals, silver was up 0.9% at $27.66 per ounce while platinum gained 0.3% to $1,228.50.

US bond yields dipped after a report showed the value of overall retail purchases was essentially unchanged in April. Most US central bank policymakers see the upward pressure – evident in a 4.2% jump in annual consumer prices last month – as transitory.

Virus resurgence in Singapore, Taiwan and some other Asian countries also boosted gold.

After slumping in the first quarter, gold has recovered amid uncertainty over the pace of the global recovery from the pandemic. Rising inflation expectations and assurances from the Fed that monetary policy will remain accommodative has also supported the precious metal.

The Fed has pledged to keep interest rates low until the economy reaches full employment, and inflation hits 2% and is on track to "moderately" exceed that level for some time.

Gold traders will look for clues on the US central bank's monetary policy and any comments on rising inflation in the minutes of the Fed's last meeting due on Wednesday.

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Silver's on the move, and gold better hang on!

Another great week to be long this "Commodities Super-Cycle" as multiple commodities broke out to new contract highs. If you have been reading our daily note called the "Morning Express," you would already know that the rising commodity prices front runs the inflation data making it essential to keep adding incrementally on corrections to commodities. My recommendation would be to focus mainly on energies and industrial metals.

The explosive CPI data released Wednesday marked the largest monthly gain since 1981 on the heels of the rapid reopening. The report's focus showed that Airlines, Auto, and Lodging saw the biggest price increases along with constrained supplies, explosive demand aligned with aggressive monetary and fiscal policy. You are probably asking yourself by now, Why am I getting all Macro on you? Because the chart below is going to be the one you need on your radar. To further help you, we created a free "Gold Trends Macro Book," which has been updated with silver slides. This monthly updated booklet will provide you with all the quantitative analyses of the precious metal's markets. You can request yours here: Free Gold Trends Macro Book.

Weekly Gold/Silver Ratio

If you can get the Macro backdrop correct, you can get the dollar right, get treasury yields right, and spillover effect into the things you care about, i.e., Gold and Silver. With faster economic growth and accelerating inflation, we should see the yield curve ramp-up to new cycle highs. That is where the industrial demand for Silver kicks into high gear, and Gold tries to hang on for dear life. For the past two decades that I have been trading, writing, and covering the precious metals markets, we have always seen Silver act as the victim of Gold price movements and due to the nature of leveraged short-sellers. Well, this time around, looking at CFTC non-commercial net long positioning, we can identify that Gold has roughly half as many net longs as its one-year average while Silver is quietly is building week over week. Rising yields will lead to continued "trimming" of Gold longs; however, the price of Gold may not see the sizable correction one would expect and actually will "drift" higher due to the rising demand for Silver as an asset. While Gold is just a currency that sits in a vault collecting zero interest, Silver, on the other hand, acts as an inflation hedge and industrial metal. In preparation for the next "Breakout" in Silver, we are constructing Bull Call Spreads using the futures contract for exit timing flexibility along with manageable leverage. If you would like to learn more about the strategies we are implementing or learn more about technical analysis, we created a guide to provide you with all the steps to create an actionable plan used as a foundation for entering and exiting the market. You can request yours here: 5-Step Technical Analysis Guide to Gold.
 

By Phillip Streible

Contributing to kitco.com

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David

Gold has the 'green light' as inflation heats up analysts look for break above $1,850

Analysts are still watching gold's $1,850 level closely as inflation pressures start to heat. Still, the uncertain economic outlook forces the Federal Reserve to remain patient and maintain its ultra-loose monetary policies.

Analysts have said that gold is in a sweet spot as more investors look for an inflation hedge. The renewed interest in gold comes after annual U.S. CPI rose 4.2% last month, its most significant increase in 13 years. Meanwhile, Thursday, U.S. producer prices rose 6.2% for the year, the biggest increase on record.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said that although inflation is rising, it is still too soon to tell if it will be more permanent or transitory, which is in line with expectations from the Federal Reserve.

Melek added that TD is currently in the camp that inflation will be transitory. He explained that while commodity prices continue to push higher, there is enough spare capacity in the global economy to accommodate this new bull-market cycle.

"We think the Federal Reserve will be quite comfortable looking through the latest inflation numbers," he said.

With inflation on the rise and the U.S. central bank looking to hold the line on its monetary policy, Melek said that it is only a matter of time before gold prices push above $1,850 an ounce. He added that if that price level breaks then the next primary target would be the January highs above $1,900.

Sean Lusk, co-director of commercial hedging at Walsh Trading, said that he is bullish on gold as inflation is "real."

He added that while there is a threat that rising inflation will push bond yields higher as fixed-income traders start to anticipate the Federal Reserve raising interest rates.

However, he added that any dip in the gold prices because of rising bond yields is a buying opportunity.

"Uncertainty abounds and that that is why the Fed will be hesitant to tighten monetary policy and that will be good for gold," he said. "Even if the Fed does look too tight, there is no doubt they will be behind the curve. Real interest rates will remain in negative territory and that is a good environment for gold."

Carsten Fritsch, precious metals analyst at Commerzbank, said in a note Friday that rising bond yields hitting 1.7% has held gold back from breaking above $1,850 an ounce. However, Fritsch also put the bond yields into perspective.

"Though U.S. bond yields climbed to as high as 1.7% [Thursday], they are still 2.5% lower than the current rate of inflation. Even if the latter falls again during the course of the year, real interest rates remain significantly negative. This is because continued ultra-expansionary monetary policy puts tight limits on any rise in bond yields," he said.

Fritsch said that he expects to see renewed speculative interest in the gold as prices have been "given the green light" to go higher.

Although inflation will be bullish for gold, Lusk said that the precious metal next week should also attract new safe-haven demand as geopolitical tensions continue to rise with the growing conflict between Israel and Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

While the gold market is seeing some new bullish momentum in an inflationary environment, some analysts also note that the precious metal continues to face some headwinds, namely growing competition from cryptocurrency.

In an email to Kitco News, Mike McGlone, senior commodity analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, describes the $1,850 an ounce level as a "rounding error." He added that the precious metal would be higher if it weren't for bitcoin.

 

McGlone added that with copper prices hitting all-time highs, gold prices should actually be trading around $2,300 an ounce.

"Gold has reached an inflection point of replacement in investment portfolios by Bitcoin," he said. "Gold going to be boring for a while as the excitement and upside potential is shifting towards the new digital upstart – Bitcoin."

 

Data to Watch

According to analysts, with all eyes on inflation, investors will be eager to see what the Federal Reserve is watching as the minutes of the April monetary policy meeting will be released Wednesday.

Markets will also receive further U.S. housing construction and sales data and preliminary manufacturing numbers.

 

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

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David

LBMA overstates silver inventories, gold price stalls despite record inflation, what’s going on?

Bullion Market Association (LBMA) overstated their silver holdings in April, an error which they later rectified.

Previously, they had reported 1.15 billion Troy ounces of silver in stock, when in fact the correct figure is 1.14 billion Troy ounces.

In a statement released to Kitco News, the LBMA stated that “The incorrect information regarding March silver stocks, which has now been amended, arose from an incorrect data submission. There is no link between this reporting error in March and the activity in the silver market at the end of January.

LBMA is working to ensure such a mistake does not occur in the future. We are reviewing internal submitter controls, as well as looking at controls in place for trade reporting and other market stock reporting that can potentially be brought across to safeguard precious metal vault stock submissions.

Currently, LBMA queries any submission which is off-trend (i.e. substantially higher/lower) than previous submitted numbers and asks for the submitter to reconfirm their numbers. This check is in place to avoid any miscalculations or “fat finger” errors arising. This process was followed during the March data submission. However, when rechecking this number, prior to submission of April silver stocks data, the submitter identified and disclosed the error, which was immediately rectified by the LBMA.”

Jeff Christian, managing partner of CPM Group, said that this was an accounting error.

“It looks like an accounting error, a mistake on the part of one of the depositories reporting to the LBMA how much metals they had at the end of the month. It doesn’t look like it had anything to do with attempts to squeeze market,” Christian told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News. “We talked to the LBMA, we talked to some depository managers, and it looks like it was a mistake.”

On the gold market, Christian noted that while gold did not rally this week on the release of the higher-than-expected headline inflation numbers of 4.2%, the yellow metal did rise all month on the back of higher inflation expectations already.

Importantly, interest rates rose significantly on the news, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield hitting 1.7% Thursday, while the market digests the fact that inflation may not be persistent, and only temporary, as 4.2% inflation on an annualized basis uses last year’s very depressed prices as a base.

More broadly speaking, Christian said, gold does not react to inflation as much as it does to other factors, including real interest rates, investment demand, and geopolitical risks.

For more information on Christian’s outlook on the gold price and his assessment of current global geopolitical risks, watch the video above.
 

By David Lin

For Kitco News

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David

Gold scores fractional gains even though the dollar recovered from the lows of the day

As of 5:15 PM EST, the most active June 2021 contract is currently fixed at $1838.40, which is a fractional gain of $0.80 on the day. However, the real news in trading today was the intraday low that came in at $1817.80 before recovering over $20 to close with modest gains on the day. Gold made a trade to a lower high than yesterday, but market participants focused immensely on the selloff that occurred during the trading session.

Much of today’s selloff was directly related to the U.S. 10-year Treasury note, which now is yielding 1.62%. Gold also recovered as the U.S. dollar traded to a low of 89.95 and recovered unchanged at 90.185. Even though the dollar closed unchanged, it did make a lower low than the previous day. In fact, the last time the dollar traded below 90.00 was on February 25 of this year. In January, the dollar index traded to its lowest value this year, hitting an intraday low of 89.15.

The fact that we are now witnessing gold solidly above $1800 expresses a strong change in market sentiment from neutral to bullish. Considering that before we saw gold rise above $1800, it was mired in an extremely narrow trading range that was defined by support at the 21-day exponential moving average and resistance occurring at the 100 – day moving average. During the beginning of May, we had multiple occurrences in which market participants were able to move gold pricing just below the 100-day moving average, which then was at approximately $1800 and is now fixed at $1797.20.

The break above $1800, which occurred on May 6, took gold from an opening price of $1787 and then closed solidly above $1800, closing at $1816 on May 6. This was followed by another dramatic rise in gold pricing, with gold opening just above the closing price of May 6 and closing at $1832 on Thursday of last week. Yesterdays and today’s trading activity created two consecutive Japanese candlesticks called a “Doji.”

This type of candlestick can be found at market tops and bottoms as the pivotal candle indicating a key reversal. However, they are also prevalent after a market has made a sustained move to higher or lower ground and consolidates at that new price point.

In the case of the last two trading days, my interpretation is that we are witnessing a period of consolidation. This is based on our technical studies, which indicate that major resistance does occur until approximately $1855. This is the most logical point on a technical basis where we could see resistance occur. Up until that price point, there are no major levels that we can identify as strong resistance. Therefore, I believe we will see gold continue to move higher, at least until $1855.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

 

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David