Gold price analysis on the weekly chart

On the weekly chart, it seems easy to see why gold is stuck in a strong consolidation zone. It is best to pick up this timeframe at month-end and as August just closed the downside rejections seem evident. Another key consideration has to be the lack of volume over the last 5-6 weeks there seemed to be no real conviction in any of the downside moves.

Looking closer at the technicals, the green shaded area has supported the bulls and now the price could look to break the grey downward sloping trendline. If this is the case it could be a great indication that the yellow metal could be headed to the red resistance and possibly beyond that, to the high marked in purple.

What is 

interesting is that the main volume area of this current distribution is at $1730/oz. These high-volume nodes act as a magnet for price and there could be another pullback on the cards. The lower level that should be of concern is the green consolidation low. If that breaks then it would make a lower high lower low chart pattern which Elliott Wave analysts could be interested in. The retracement wave 1-2 did stop at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement but no lower low has been made. For me, if the $1919/oz wave high is broken that would invalidate any potential wave pattern down and the uptrend could resume. It is fair to say we are still in an uptrend on the weekly chart but in a very stubborn area.

 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

 

 

 

 

 

David

Gold and silver move marginally higher heading into the European open

Gold and silver start the week marginally higher. The yellow metal is trading at $1827/oz while silver has moved to $24.77/oz. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper is down -0.31% and spot WTI has dropped -1.07%.

Looking at the risk sentiment in the Asia Pac session, the Nikkei 225 (1.81%), ASX (0.07%), and Shanghai Composite (1.24%) all traded well overnight. Futures in Europe are pointing towards a positive cash open.

In FX markets, it was pretty cagey overnight. The biggest mover was AUD/USD which dropped 0.20% and the dollar index traded 0.08% higher. In the crypto space, BTC/USD moved above $50K to hit $51.839.

Looking at some of the news stories from the weekend and overnight.

A unit of the military seized power and suspended the constitution in Guinea. This was said to be one of the reasons that Aluminium rose overnight.

Germany July factory orders +3.4% vs -1.0% m/m expected.

China's major state-owned banks were reportedly seen buying US dollars late last week, according to a Reuters report.

NZ PM Ardern has said the lockdown is to be eased in all regions outside of Auckland.

Chinese officials are to tighten foreign exchange market supervision.

In Japan, Toro Kono is the front runner to be the new leader of the nation. Kono is currently the regulatory reform and vaccine minister of the nation.

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include U.K. and German construction PMI and comments from BoE's Saunders. The U.S. session is due to be quiet as it is Labor Day in America.
 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

 

David

Gold has a path to $1,900 if it can break above $1,830 next week, analysts.

The gold market is holding near session highs but is seeing little reaction as momentum in the service sector falls relatively in line with expectations.

Friday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its non-manufacturing index showed a reading of 61.7% for August, down from July's reading of 64.1%. According to consensus estimates, economists were forecasting a reading around 61.9%.

The gold market is holding on to solid gains just below critical resistance levels following the latest economic data. December gold futures last traded at $1,829.2 an ounce, up nearly 1% on the day.

Gold prices surged earlier in the session after the U.S. Labor Department said that 235,000 jobs were created in August, significantly missing expectations.

Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC, said that the ISM data and labor market numbers highlight slowing economic growth in the U.S. as the COVID-19 Delta variant sweeps through the nation. However, she added that the slowdown could be temporary.

"Combined with the disappointing jobs report for August, this report also favors a slower pace to H2 2021 GDP growth than our previous forecast taking into account the impact of the Delta variant spread. However, this will be only a temporary detour, and we look for a reacceleration in growth next spring as the Delta wave will then be behind us," she said.

Looking at the components of the report, the Business Activities Index dropped to a reading of 60.7%, down from July's reading of 67. At the same time, the New Orders Index fell to 63.2%, down from the previous level of 63.7%.

Momentum in the U.S. labor market remained relatively unchanged, with the Employment data falling to 53.7%, down from July's reading of 53.8%. However, the index has less importance coming after the release of the government's nonfarm payrolls.

Inflation pressures also dropped slightly from their elevated levels. The Prices Index fell to 75.4%, down from July's reading at 82.3%.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

 

David

Gold remains above key and critical short-term support but it is the release of Friday’s jobs report that will shape the future direction of gold

Gold pricing has remained fairly stable and continues to trade above $1800 per ounce. The clear break in gold occurred on Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell spoke at the virtual Economic Symposium. Last Friday’s dynamic surge in gold took the precious yellow metal from its opening price of $1795 top close at approximately $1820. This single-day move took gold pricing above its 100 and 200-day moving averages. During the same period, gold’s 100-day moving average crossed above the longer-term 200-day moving average.

Gold continues to hold its ground considering the strong gains in U.S. equities with the NASDAQ composite, closing at a new record high today. The NASDAQ composite gained 50 points which is an increase of 0.33% and closed at 15,309.3812. The S&P 500 closed at a record high on Monday and is currently trading a few points below Monday's record close.

Dollar weakness has certainly aided in gold’s stable performance. Now for the fourth consecutive day, the dollar has closed lower when compared to the previous day. Today the U.S. dollar index lost 12 points and is currently fixed at 92.515.

As of 5:55 PM EDT gold futures basis, the most active December 2021 Comex contract is fixed at $1816.30 after factoring in today’s fractional decline of $1.80. However it was silver that had a strong advance just shy of 8/10 of a percent, and after you factor in today’s $0.19 gain the December contract of silver is currently fixed at $24.195.

The next report that market participants along with the Federal Reserve will use to determine whether or not the economic recovery in the United States is slowing is Friday's job report. This will help shape or determine the future course of the Fed’s monetary policy as it will have the most recent data indicating whether or not the economic recovery continues to pick up steam, or whether it is contracting due to the Delta variant of the Covid-19 virus.

Today ADP released its private-sector employment data which came in disappointingly below the economist forecast polled by Dow Jones. Estimates for today’s ADP report were that there would be 600,000 new private-sector jobs in August. However, the report indicated that only 374,000 new jobs were added last month. The question becomes whether or not the ADP’s private-sector report is a precursor to a disappointing Labor Department jobs report which will come out on Friday. Typically ADP jobs report cannot be directly correlated to the US Labor Department’s report.

According to CNBC, “U.S. companies created far fewer jobs than expected in August as the Covid resurgence coincided with cutbacks in hiring, according to a report Wednesday from payroll services firm ADP. Private payrolls rose just 374,000 for the month, well below the Dow Jones estimate of 600,000 though above July’s 326,000, which was revised downward slightly from initial 330,000 reading.”

If the Labor Department report comes in under current economic predictions it could have very bullish undertones for gold, and bearish undertones for the dollar. This is because the Federal Reserve’s mandate of maximum employment is the main criteria that the Federal Reserve is currently looking at to guide their future actions in regards to the onset of tapering as well as when they will raise interest rates.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

 

David

Mixed PMI's ahead of the U.S. open

PMI's in Europe have once again impressed leading into the U.S. market open. The Eurozone number itself came in at 61.4 vs analyst expectations of 61.5 marginally missing out. The report itself said that manufacturing growth slowed to a size month low. It noted, "The euro area manufacturing sector registered another marked expansion during August, latest PMI data showed, although momentum waned once again as the headline index fell to a six-month low.". Some important nations noted slower expansions with the likes of Germany, Ireland, Austria, and France noting slower growth. The Netherlands was the best performing although it also moved to a 5 month low.

In the U.K. once again rising supply chain constraints lead to slower production growth and rising input prices in August. The report said shortages of inputs and delivery delays disrupted production schedules, leading to slower output growth, and also resulted in marked increases in input prices. Things like building materials including lumber and cement are hard to get hold of at the moment and some construction projects are having to be delayed. Despite this Rob Dobson, Director at IHS Markit said "Business confidence remained elevated despite the widespread shortages as firms focused on the longer-term outlook and brought back furloughed workers. However, the solid jobs growth seen in August could soon wane if supply disruptions and shortages of both labor and required skills continue to worsen.”

Obviously, the Chinese number disappointed markets overnight. The manufacturing sector has moved back into contractionary territory in the nation. The PMI measure of the services sector plunged into negative territory as a recent outbreak of Covid-19 weighed on activity. Some analysts suggested the clampdown by the Chinese government on the property sector is a reason for the PMI fall. The government has asked companies to lower leverage and debt levels which means fewer projects can be put in place for the time being. Later in the session, we will be looking out for the U.S. ISM reading. Economists are looking for 58.6 lower than the last reading of 59.5.

UK Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 60.3 vs exp 60.1 prev 60.4

EU Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 61.4 vs exp 61.5 prev 62.8

German Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 62.6 vs exp 62.7 prev 65.9

French Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 57.5 vs exp 57.3 prev 58.0

Italian Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 60.9 vs exp 60.1 prev 60.3

Indian Nikkei Markit Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 52.3 vs exp 55.0 prev 55.3

China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 49.2 vs exp 50.2 prev 50.3

Australian Manufacturing PMI 52.0 vs prev 56.9

Japanese Manufacturing PMI (Aug) 52.7 vs prev 52.4

 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David