Market participants await the November CPI inflation numbers

Market participants await the November CPI inflation numbers

Tomorrow the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the inflationary numbers vis-à-vis the CPI index. This report will be a critical component that the Federal Reserve will review before releasing its adjusted monetary policy. On Wednesday of next week, the Federal Reserve will release the statement including the revised dot plot and a press conference by Chairman Jerome Powell.

Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures said, “The stronger-than-expected jobless claims numbers along with a firmer dollar are pulling down on gold, but there are also traders waiting for the CPI data. If inflation numbers are going to be high, then gold will bounce right back up and make a move towards $1,800.”

Inflationary pressures have been spiraling out of control for months. Inflation rates edged higher beginning in June when the CPI came in at 5.4%. Inflation remained right around this level in July, August, and September. However, that all changed in October when the CPI projections indicated a major uptick to 5.8%. But the actual numbers came in well over the projections at 6.2%, the first occurrence of inflationary pressures at this level since November 1990.

Up until October the Federal Reserve maintained an adjusted mandate to let inflationary pressures run hot in place of maximum employment. They based their assumption on the belief that the current inflationary pressures will be transitory and will quickly move back down to acceptable levels.

Recently Chairman Powell acknowledged that that assumption was incorrect by removing the word transitory from the Fed’s vocabulary. However, his explanation was the whole truth, when he said we would remove the word transitory because “transitory means different things to different people.”

The report is expected to indicate a record level for inflation. Market participants, as well as Federal Reserve, will be intently focused upon tomorrow’s report. Currently, economists polled by various new sources are forecasting for yet a higher level of inflation predicting that inflation will increase by 0.7% taking the year-over-year number to 6.8%. If the economists are correct that would be a level not seen since the 80s.

Today’s decline in gold futures was not a reflection of the anticipated report tomorrow but rather based upon dollar strength and a report indicating strong jobs data in the United States. As of 5:35 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active February contract is fixed at $1775.90, a net decline of $9.60.

To get a better understanding of why gold could enter a major rally tomorrow if the inflationary numbers come in as forecasted or above, we need to look at what caused the record level of inflation in 1980 and what effect that had on the economy. In the early 1980s, countries worldwide including America, experienced one of the most severe economic recessions since World War II.

As Wikipedia puts it, “The early 1980s recession was a severe economic recession that affected much of the world between approximately the start of 1980 and early 1983. It is widely considered to have been the most severe recession since World War II. A key event leading to the recession was the 1979 energy crisis.”

In 1980 the inflationary pressures were between 12.52% to 14.76%. By January 1982, the CPI index fell to 8.39%. It took roughly three years from 1980 to 1983 before inflationary pressures normalized. This brings us to our current dilemma, for the Federal Reserve to effectively bring down inflationary pressures will not occur overnight and, in fact, could well be a long multiyear process. Historically, inflationary pressures at the current levels are the outcome of unique geopolitical or economic circumstances. Because there is an underlying force that drove inflation to these high levels, it is not possible to reverse that trend over a short period.

It is because of those factors that I believe if the CPI report tomorrow indicates higher inflationary pressures than the previous month, it will be clear that the Federal Reserve has a multiyear task to bring inflation back to normal levels. During that multiyear period, gold could experience one of the more dynamic rallies’s witnessed in our lifetime possibly even trading to a new record high based on the time necessary to normalize inflationary rates.

 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

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David

Gold has been ‘shockingly stable’: It’s a long-term play as U.S. dollar rolls over, says Jeffrey Gundlach

Gold has been 'shockingly stable': It's a long-term play as U.S. dollar rolls over, says Jeffrey Gundlach

Billionaire "Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach sees inflation not returning below the 4% handle next year, and bond markets are already "sniffing out a weaker economy" coming. For gold, this means a long-term hold after a "shockingly stable" and "boring" year.

There are "rough waters" ahead for the financial markets in 2022 as the Federal Reserve looks to accelerate its tapering schedule and raise rates next year, said DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach.

"Powell is going to double that pace of taper, which would get us out in March. It's quite likely that since the stock market and risk assets have been clearly supported for over a decade by balance sheet expansion, it is turning into rough waters," Gundlach said during the DoubleLine Total Return Webcast.

A hawkish Fed will drag the economy down. And as the central bank proceeds to raise rates in 2022, economic problems will follow, Gundlach pointed out.

"It's likely that we will see economic problems with just a few rate hikes from the Fed — four rate hikes or so. It's 1% or 1.5% on the Fed funds rate that breaks the economy," he said.

The bond market is already signaling red flags. "Since March of this year, the bond market seems to be sniffing out a weaker economy coming … One should expect economic problems sooner rather than later. My base case is we'll start to see trouble by the second half of 2022," Gundlach noted.

Canadian gold price holding steady as BoC leaves interest rates unchanged

The trigger behind a more hawkish Fed is inflation, which is not going anyway next year. Gundlach warned that the U.S. inflation pace may not decelerate below 4% on an annual basis for the whole of 2022.

"Inflation on autos may go away, the inflation on lumber may dissipate, inflation on some of the supply-chain bottlenecks may dissipate, but wage growth and shelter may replace it and keep. Looking out to the end of 2022, it's very possible that we don't see a reading that has a handle below 4% at any time in 2022.

Gundlach also projected that inflation could rise to 7% on an annual basis in the next couple of months.

When asked about gold, Gundlach said it has been "boring" and "shockingly stable" in light of the commodity inflation and the wild ride going on in bitcoin this year. "Gold and silver are kind of the orphans in the commodity market. They have not gone up at all," he said.

For gold to rally, the U.S. dollar needs to roll over. "The dollar has been a cap on gold. I do think that when the dollar heads down, gold will go up."

Gundlach continues to hold gold as a long-term play, adding that the last time he bought the precious metal was in September 2018 at around $1,180 an ounce level.

"But it certainly has not been rewarding at all this year compared to the other things from commodities," Gundlach commented.

Gundlach's long-term dollar view is "strongly bearish," with expectations of a weaker USD in the second half of 2022 or 2023 due to twin deficits in the U.S.

"When the dollar starts to slip, I think it's going to slip pretty mightily and take out that low of 2009. That'd be quite a drop from here. When the dollar starts to go down, you're going to see tremendous outperformance by non-U.S. stocks. Emerging markets will be a very strong performer," the billionaire money manager said.

DoubleLine CEO also projected that the Fed would step in to defend risk assets through money printing.

"The Fed will step in if the equity market declines by say 20% or more. Money printing and money giveaways are with us to stay. And, I predicted this years ago that we would send money to people and do it more broadly and at greater amounts," Gundlach stated.

 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

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David

Gold price near steady as risk appetite growing

Gold price near steady as risk appetite growing

Gold prices are trading not far from unchanged in early U.S. dealings Wednesday. Buying interest is being limited in safe-haven gold and silver as trader and investor risk appetite seems to be growing keener by the day. However, selling interest in the metals is being squelched by the big rebound in crude oil prices recently, which suggests "black gold" and the leader of the raw commodity sector has put in at least a near-term bottom. February gold was last up $0.50 at $1,785.50 and March Comex silver was last down $0.093 at $22.425 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mostly up in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward firmer openings when the New York day session begins. The Omicron fears seen over the past nearly two weeks have quickly faded as trader and investor risk appetite is robust at mid-week. Pfizer has just reported three vaccine doses neutralize the Omicron variant, while two doses likely still prevent serious effects from the variant.

As Omicron moves off the front burner of the marketplace, focus is on other matters such as new ideas the Federal Reserve will move even more quickly to end its bond-buying program, so it can start raising U.S. interest rates. The Fed's FOMC meets next week. The marketplace now expects the Fed to hike rates in May of next year. The Fed recently abandoned its notion that inflation is just "transitory."

In other news, China's stock markets have been pressured this week as property giant Evergrande missed a bond payment deadline Monday.

Traders are also monitoring the Russia-Ukraine border situation, where Russia has amassed troops. U.S. President Biden and Russian President Putin discussed the matter on the telephone Tuesday, but no progress was made on a de-escalation of the apparent Russian intentions of invading Ukraine and even annexing it. It appears this situation will get more tense before it gets better, and that means safe-haven assets are likely to come more into favor in the near term, including gold, silver, the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasuries.

The key "outside markets" today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $71.00 a barrel. This week's strong gains in crude oil suggest the market last week put in a near-term bottom. The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.461%.

U.S. economic data due for release Wednesday is light and includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey and the weekly DOE liquid energy stocks report.

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,840.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,761.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,794.30 and then at $1,800.00. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,772.40 and then at last week's low of $1,762.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The March silver bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending down for nearly three weeks. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing December futures prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $21.46. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $22.635 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at last week's low of $22.035 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.
 

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

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David

Gold slightly up as crude oil rallies

Gold slightly up as crude oil rallies

Gold prices are up just a bit in midday U.S. trading Monday. Solid gains in crude oil prices to start the trading week (bullish) are slightly trumping better trader/investor risk attitudes (bearish). February gold was last up $1.50 at $1,785.40 and March Comex silver was last down $0.136 at $22.34 an ounce.

It was a quieter trading day Monday. Global stock markets were mixed to firmer. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday. There is less risk aversion in the global marketplace to start the trading week. Early reports say the Omicron strain of the coronavirus appears to be a milder strain than Delta, but may be more contagious.

In other weekend news, Bitcoin and other crypto currencies saw their prices plunge, with Bitcoin losing over 10% in value at one point. Ideas of a tighter U.S. monetary policy sooner apparently helped to sink the cryptos.

Asian shares were pressured by a big drop of 20% in property giant Evergrande, as that firm warned it could default on some debt payments.

Gold is stuck between these two forces, prices to climb towards $1,900 in Q1 2022 – Standard Chartered

China's central bank has eased its monetary policy slightly by reducing the reserve requirement ratio for its banks.

The key "outside markets" today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly higher and trading around $68.25 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher. Meantime, the yield on the U.S. Treasury 10-year note is presently fetching 1.388%.

Technically, February gold futures bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,840.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,761.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,789.00 and then at $1,800.00. First support is seen at $1,775.00 and then at last week's low of $1,762.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

March silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $24.00 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of $21.46. First resistance is seen at today's high of $22.635 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at last week's low of $22.035 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

March N.Y. copper closed up 460 points at 4310.25 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. The copper bears have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the November high of 451.15 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the November low of 420.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 435.15 cents and then at last week's high of 438.15 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 425.35 cents and then at the November low of 420.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
 

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

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David

Gold starts the session flat heading into the European open

Gold starts the session flat heading into the European open

Gold is trading 0.08% higher leading into the European open at $1784/oz. On the contrary, silver has fallen 0.44% and starts the session at $22.44/oz. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper is trading just under flat, while spot WTI is up around 2%.

On the risk side, the Nikkei 225 (-0.36%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.50%) fell overnight, while the ASX (0.05%) managed to keep its head above water. Futures in Europe are initiating a positive cash open is on the cards.

In FX markets, the dollar index is up 0.19% and AUD is the only major currency to gain against the greenback. In the crypto space, BTC/USD had a dismal weekend falling through $50K to trade at $48,117.

Major headlines:

Talk of an RRR cut from China. China Securities Daily says cut could come as soon as this month.

U.K. ministers announce new COVID-19 restrictions for travellers entering the U.K..

Biden and Putin are to have a phone call this Tuesday (one for the diary).

Japan PM Kishida says to shorten waiting period between vaccine and booster shot.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) vice chairman Zurbrügg to step down at the end of July 2022.

US to fast-track revamped vaccine in battle against omicron.

Germany October factory orders -6.9% vs -0.5% m/m expected.

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include EZ sentix data, Riksbanks minutes, comments from BoE's Broadbent, Riksbank's Skinglsey and the Eurogroup meeting.

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

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David

Gold at $10k, silver at $500 due to ‘a decade of shortage’, inflationary black swan event

Gold at $10k, silver at $500 due to 'a decade of shortage', inflationary black swan event

Gold's safe-haven appeal is yet to kick in. The precious metal once again failed to hold the $1,800 an ounce level. And that's despite high volatility in the U.S. equity space triggered by omicron fears. Here's a look at Kitco's top three stories of the week:
 

3. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen testify

2. Singapore piles into gold for the first since 2000 + Ireland buys gold for the first time in 12 years

1. Gold price at $10k, silver at $500 due to 'a decade of shortage', says Goehring & Rozencwajg
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

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David

Gold price wants clarity after Powell’s hawkish stance – analysts

Gold price wants clarity after Powell's hawkish stance – analysts

As markets come to grips with a more hawkish Federal Reserve and omicron fears, can gold find its safe-haven appeal next week? The focus in December will be the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, according to analysts.

After a turbulent week in gold and the U.S. equities, the markets were hit with a mixed employment report from November. Despite the big miss in the headline number, the details were quite optimistic. The latest data showed the U.S. economy only adding 210,000 jobs last month versus the expected 535,000.

"Algorithms first saw the big headline miss, and gold popped. But as analysts read the report, it was fairly positive. Minority employment rose, and the participation rate increased. That showed labor market recovery heading in the right direction. Overall, the report was still in line with the Fed's goal to accelerate tapering," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News.

Next week, the inflation report will be the critical data point determining just how aggressive the Fed could get.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the U.S. Congress this week that the central bank will be considering wrapping up tapering a few months earlier, citing more problematic inflation. Powell also retired his "inflation is transitory" phrase, noting that the threat of persistently higher inflation has grown.

Gold market is ugly with no clear price direction

"Inflation number next week could see the Fed increase pace by $5-$10 billion. This is why a lot of traders are anticipating some dollar strength to last a little bit longer, and that's why gold is stuck below $1,800 an ounce," Moya said.

Also, the Fed meeting on Dec. 15 looms large, especially considering that the U.S. central bank could be making a policy mistake, said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman.

"Gold has been up and down because of the uncertainty that the Fed has introduced with a more aggressive in tapering stance. Markets are unsure that it is the right expectation. Everything seems to be coming back to the Fed. There's widespread volatility across markets," Millman told Kitco News. "I've been talking a lot about the Fed potentially making a policy mistake. And Powell commenting on accelerating tapering might have already been that mistake. Gold is on its back foot trying to react."

Important to keep in mind that the last month of the year is challenging to trade, noted Moya, warning of thin trading and unexpected catalysts.

"We are coming to year-end, and we could see some major repositioning as far as profit-taking and thin conditions. You might see investors really lock in some of their profitable trades. There is fear that when you are beyond peak monetary and fiscal support, you will see a pullback. That could lead to a major stock market selloff," Moya said.

Millman also reminded investors that the expiration of the December gold futures contract is approaching, stating that "any time we are near that, we can expect more volatility."

Both Moya and Millman anticipate that gold will be able to sustain a more convincing rally at the beginning of next year, as the Fed situation clarifies.

"Longer-term, you are not seeing real yields really improve. The gold market is going to have a major move once there is a strong consensus on when that first rate hike will happen and whether it will be two or three within the first year. Once that is priced in, that is when you'll see gold attract some flows," Moya explained.

 

Levels to watch

Gold is ending the week relatively flat, with February Comex gold futures last trading at $1,783.90, up 1.20% on the day.

Looking at the technical picture, support is at $1,770 and then at $1,750 an ounce. And resistance remains at the $1,800 an ounce level.

"If the price of gold breaks below $1,750, we could see further losses. The $1,680 could come into play. That is the low for this year," Millman said. "The key is to watch whether or not gold can keep making those higher lows. That is one thing I am encouraged by — gradual building of positive momentum."

For now, the market is in the wait-and-see mode in terms of inflation and the omicron variant, noted Moya.

"It is going to be a choppy period. There is still a lot of optimism that we won't have the same number of lockdowns as at the beginning of the pandemic, but some states will struggle. Gold might consolidate between $1,750-$1,800 leading up to the inflation report and the Fed meeting," he added.
 

Next week's data

On the radar next week will be the U.S. jobless claims on Thursday and the inflation report on Friday.

"The most important data point will be November consumer price inflation. Rising gasoline, housing and second-hand car prices will be the big movers, but growing evidence of rising corporate pricing power is also likely to be evident," said ING chief international economist James Knightley. "This is likely to leave annual rates close to 7% for headline inflation with the potential for core inflation to beak above 5%."

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

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David

Powell is just stalling for time, gold and silver look attractive as inflation spiral starts – Degussa

Powell is just stalling for time, gold and silver look attractive as inflation spiral starts – Degussa

Physical gold and silver will continue to be attractive assets as investors look to protect their wealth and purchasing power as one precious metals firm sees signs of an inflation spiral.

In his latest market report, Thorsten Polleit, chief economist of Degussa, said not only are consumer prices at multi-decade highs around the world but growing economic data points to elevated inflation pressure for years to come.

One sector Polleit said he is watching that highlights the growing inflationary trend is the housing market. This year U.S. home prices are up nearly 20%. Over in Europe, German home prices are up more than 13%.

Polleit said that rising home prices are good indications that sustained inflation across the board is "rearing its ugly head."

He added that the threat now is that inflation spirals out of control.

"If people expect goods price inflation to rise and remain high in the future, they will adjust their wage, rental and credit agreements. For instance, employees will demand higher wages, property owners will ask for more money for the right to occupy a home, and lenders will increase their lending rates," he said.

Ireland buys gold for the first time in 12 years

Polleit noted that so far, central bankers worldwide have been able to talk down the rising inflation threat. Earlier this week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in testimony before Congress that the central bank will be discussing speeding up the process to reduce the amount of bonds they purchase every month.

He also said it is time to "retire" the world "transitory." While Powell is striking a more hawkish tone on monetary policy, Polleit said that he is still maintaining dovish policies.

"Clearly, there is no desire to change the course immediately. What seems to be intended is that people expect the Fed to do something about the inflation at some point in the more or less far future and that this will suffice to keep them sitting still," he said. "So far, it seems to be working, as central banks are getting away with it. And while the money supply continues to expand at elevated rates, goods price inflation will likely remain high in the years to come, and people will probably get used to it – as they have become used to extremely low interest rates."

Polleit said that central banks have no desire to stop the growing inflation threat.

"The higher inflation has become, and the higher inflation expectations have risen, the more restrictive monetary policy must be," he said. "Unfortunately, central banks shy away from abandoning their inflationary policy course, fearing that stepping on the brakes would plunge economies into recession and crash financial markets."

The growing risk as central banks stall for time is that consumers get punished, Polleit said. He added that inflation would ultimately create winners and losers in the global economy.

"Owners of assets, which increase in price, benefit while the holders of money suffer: They can buy fewer assets for their money," he said.

Polleit said investors need to start looking at holding some physical gold and silver in their portfolios to protect themselves.

"For long-term oriented investors, holding physical gold and silver as part of their liquid portfolio should be particularly worthwhile, as in the coming years, especially when purchased at current prices – which we consider to be relatively cheap, appearing to promise a substantial upwards potential, they can be expected to be both risk-reducing and return-enhancing," he said.

 

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

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David

Gold price at $10k, silver at $500 due to ‘a decade of shortage’, says Goehring & Rozencwajg

Gold price at $10k, silver at $500 due to 'a decade of shortage', says Goehring & Rozencwajg

his will be a "decade of shortage" defined by high inflation and a failed attempt to raise rates – the perfect combo to trigger a massive rally in gold, said Goehring & Rozencwajg Associates managing partner Leigh Goehring.

Next year, inflation could already be pushing 9%, and it could get a lot worse, Goehring told Kitco News in an interview.

"We're getting closer to the explosion of gold prices to the upside. I'm a big believer that inflation is not going away. It's going to continue to be a problem. We could be looking at a black swan event in inflation. It could be an oil shock, natural gas shock or agricultural shock," Goehring said.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell already shocked the markets this week by dropping the phrase that "inflation is transitory" and stating that the U.S. central bank will be discussing accelerating the pace of tapering at the upcoming December meeting.

An inflationary black swan event could kick-start that inflationary psychology, which has been missing despite annual U.S. inflation running hot at 6.2%.

"It is going to force the Fed to raise rates. The central bank will start, but that will create such havoc that the Fed will have to stop. In response, gold will first pull back. But that will be the final retreat before the massive gold bull market," Goehring described.

There are too many similarities between now and the late 1960s and early 1970s, and they cannot be ignored. Back then, inflation was going up about 5%-6% per year — the same as now. And then, in 1973, there was the black swan event — the oil embargo.

"Oil went from $4 a barrel up to $15 a barrel literally overnight. And that triggered a huge surge of inflationary psychology. And the Fed raised rates aggressively. Gold spent the next two years going down, bottoming in 1975," Goehring said. "This time around, however, the Fed will have to give up on raising rates because it will be too painful for everyone."

And that would be the perfect scenario for gold, Goehring added. "Once the precious metal bottoms from the Fed's tightening action, it will begin its massive bull market."

Yellen says stimulus only 'small contributor' to inflation, Powell sees Fed ready to adapt policy to higher price pressures

When Fed Chair Jerome Powell began his first term, he tried to raise rates, which backfired in the Treasury market. "That's why I think that Powell will have to give up on raising rates just like he did in October of 2018. And once he gives it up, the great bull market in gold starts," Goehring pointed out.
 

$10k gold and $500 silver?

How big of a bull market will it be? Goehring is expecting gold to reach $10,000 an ounce by the end of the decade. And for silver to eventually catch up and trade around $500 an ounce.

"By 2028, gold could be over $10,000. If gold is over $10,000 and we go back to the 20:1 gold-silver ratio. That's $500 silver," he said. "It will be the decade of shortages, and everyone's going to get poorer except for the people that own physical gold and silver."

Silver is another quintessential inflationary metal to buy and hold during the next decade. "I'm convinced that in this bull market, there's going to be another corner attempted at the silver market," Goehring said.

Inflation will get a lot worse during this decade of shortages. And the underinvestment in the resource sector will play a big role.

"When we look back on this decade and ask what happened. It's going to be looked upon as the decade shortage. It's going to be a shortage of everything. Over the last ten years, we've radically underinvested in our resource spaces relative to demand. Look at what's happening with Exxon and Chevron and the ESG concerns. They are not talking about replacing their resource base," Goehring stated.

This underinvestment in the resource sector will manifest itself and that is going to be highly inflationary, the Goehring & Rozencwajg managing partner said. "This year, inflation accelerated from under 3% to over 6%. At some point in 2022, we could approach 9%," he noted.

And the one key metric to watch is the bond market, which has so far largely dismissed the rising price pressures.

"We have inflation now, but we don't have inflation psychology. And that's what the bond market is saying too. However, what happens if the bond market changes its mind? We could see massive panic selling. And that's going to be a big problem for equities. In 2022, the bond market could finally incorporate inflationary expectations," Goehring described

.

Gold price sheds gains as Powell talks more aggressive tapering, wants to drop 'inflation is transitory' term

During the last month of 2021, gold is still in its corrective phase after hitting new record highs last year, but the long-term investors have been using this opportunity to buy.

"Gold hasn't been the place to be for performance reasons this year. And I think that performance discrepancy will continue for another six months. But for people that are looking to buy gold for the long term, they are buying now. Gold stocks too. They are the cheapest they've ever been."

Another big winner for next year will be the agricultural sector, especially fertilizer stocks, according to Goehring.

"The only thing that's done better than fertilizer prices in 2021 had been natural gas price. There are improving fundamentals in global fertilizer markets. Energy fertilizer is very energy intensive. China has already curtailed fertilizer production. Increased demand in light of supply-side constraints could make these stocks the super winners of 2022," he added.
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Buy, Sell Gold and Silver, with Free Storage and Monthly Yields

David