Retail investors look to gold and silver for best results in 2022, Wall Street points to silver and platinum

Retail investors look to gold and silver for best results in 2022, Wall Street points to silver and platinum

After a disappointing year for gold and silver, Main Street is looking for the bearish tide to turn in 2022, picking the two metals as the top performers in the new year, according to Kitco's online survey.

Gold ended the year down 3.6%, posting its biggest annual decline since 2015. Silver wrapped up 2021 with a drop of 11.5%, which was the metal's sharpest decline since 2014.

Both metals failed to gain traction throughout last year despite the hot inflation narrative, as strong economic recovery and a more aggressive Federal Reserve outlook weighed on prices.

Retail investors are hopeful that the bearish trend has peaked, with Kitco's survey results showing participants almost equally split between gold and silver as the top two choices for best performers in 2022.

Out of 1,569 respondents, 32.7% picked gold as the top performer for 2022, while another 32.1% opted for silver. The third most loved metal for next year was copper, with 12.9% of respondents betting on the red metal. Another 9.2% chose lithium and 6.7% picked Bitcoin. Platinum only garnered 4.5% support, followed by palladium at 2%.

The Wall Street side is also bullish on gold and silver in the long term. Analysts told Kitco that gold is well-positioned to rally along with interest rate hikes, while silver has a chance to play catch-up after lagging behind gold for months.

"After facing numerous headwinds in 2021, we believe gold's path higher looks clearer in 2022. Moderating equity market returns and inflation concerns may bring the market's focus and flows back to the yellow metal next year. [The] greenback will not be a substantial headwind in 2022 as it was in 2021," said Wells Fargo in its outlook. "While we are optimistic that gold could finally move higher in 2022, a stronger price trend may take some time to develop, which prompts us to lower our year-end 2022 target range to $2,000-$2,100."

BofA also pointed to gold's upside in 2022 while also highlighting positive outlooks for silver and platinum. "As gold markets refocus from tighter monetary policy toward how high rates can rise, the yellow metal should rally; we believe 10Y Treasuries above 2.5% are difficult to sustain. Increased investment into solar panels should boost silver. Platinum is the rebound trade on normalization of chip shortages in the auto industry; substitution from palladium should also help," the bank said.

Bloomberg Intelligence sees gold outperforming other metals in 2022, citing enduring trends favoring the precious metal.

"A primary question for 2022 might be what stops gold from regaining the upper hand vs. most commodities, and our bias is for enduring trends (notably since the financial crisis) to prevail, which favors precious metals more than industrial and the metals sector over broad commodities," said Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone. "Since the end of 2007, gold's roughly 115% gain has underpinnings from an unlimited supply of fiat currency. Greater supply elasticity is a copper headwind. Indicating the difference for investors, the Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total Return is about 20% vs. 40% for the spot."

After largely ignoring the problematic inflation narrative for most of 2021, the markets are becoming fearful of the growing price pressures, Gareth Soloway, chief market strategist of InTheMoneyStocks.com, told Kitco News.

"What I am bullish on is gold. It is going to be the biggest performer here in 2022. You should see a move up to the highs from 2020. There is even a potential for a $3,000 price target on gold. You have to look at the inflation numbers. I don't think inflation will go back to 2%. The Fed will taper, but ultimately people will rotate into gold," Soloway said.

And if gold does well in the new year, silver has a chance to outperform the yellow metal, analysts pointed out.

"There's certainly that catch-up story built in there. It has underperformed gold to date. And you'll find some switching by investors into the silver market as a consequence of that," said ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes.

The gold-silver ratio also points to silver's outperformance, noted Perth Mint manager of listed products and investment research Jordan Eliseo.

"The very fact that the gold-silver ratio is at roughly 80:1, that alone suggests that if gold is going to rise, silver at the very least is going to come along for the ride and could quite likely outperform gold," Eliseo said. "Silver also benefits if commodities as a whole do well. If economies perform relatively strongly, it should benefit from an industrial perspective and the whole ESG transition that's taking place in the economy."

Silver price 2022: Here's how silver can outperform gold as it plays catch-up next year

Silver has the best chance to rise in 2022, said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman. "It is so cheap relative to other metals and other commodities. And it figures prominently in emerging technologies and green energy. It is a perfect storm for silver to finally break out in 2022, especially after it really lagged gold these past few years," Millman said.

Analysts also highlighted platinum's upside potential in 2022 due to its supply-demand fundamentals.

"Platinum doesn't have all the conspiracy and short sellers that silver has. The market is smaller. There is not a lot of players involved. You have the supply issues, but these are being resolved. You'll see platinum demand snap back. When supply chain issues are resolved, you should see platinum be the one that outperforms the rest. It's one of the underdogs from last year," Blue Line Futures chief market strategist Phillip Streible told Kitco News.

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Is hawkish sentiment about to peak? Here’s what is next for gold price after this week’s Fed-related selloff

Is hawkish sentiment about to peak? Here's what is next for gold price after this week's Fed-related selloff

After shedding more than $35 this week in response to a more aggressive Federal Reserve meeting minutes, the hawkish sentiment might be at its peak, according to analysts. And that is a positive signal that gold bulls are keeping a close eye on.

The big news that shook the gold market this week was the Fed's December meeting minutes, which indicated that a "tight" U.S. labor market and problematic inflation could require quicker rate hikes and a balance sheet reduction.

"Participants generally noted that, given their individual outlooks for the economy, the labor market, and inflation, it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated," the minutes stated. "Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate."

Analysts pointed out that this view might already be dated, considering the surge in omicron-related cases in December and January.

"Omicron is having an impact. We are already starting to see that in the employment data," TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News.

The U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose only by 199,000 in December, well short of consensus estimates of 400,000. The November data was revised up to 249,000 positions added. Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate dropped to 3.9%, beating market consensus calls for a decline to 4.1%.

"Today was a big disappointment. But despite weak employment, the relative consensus is that there are still inflationary pressures out there. Gold can still get a bit of a rally in Q1, another $40-$50. But afterward, gold is likely to slide lower," Melek said. "There is no guarantee that the Fed will get restrictive. The market believes the Fed will act robustly, but I am not so sure they will be able to."

 

In light of the changes in the macro data and the omicron situation, this week might have marked a peak in how hawkish the Fed is being perceived, Blue Line Futures chief market strategist Phillip Streible told Kitco News.

"Gold will recover from this the selloff. We are using this correction to buy gold again. Right now, it is trading in the lower part of its range. It is worthwhile to step in at these price levels. But we still don't have a big catalyst to take gold significantly higher. We are at peak hawkishness, though," Blue Line Futures chief market strategist Phillip Streible told Kitco News.

The question markets will be preoccupied with going forwards is how many rate hikes can the Fed commit to in 2022?

"Wall Street is now struggling to find out what will end up being the neutral rate. A few rate hikes are already priced in for 2022, but the question everyone has is, will some of the balance sheet runoff end up replacing some of the future rate hikes," said OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya. "Gold had a bad week, but it could have been much worse when you consider the 10-year Treasury yield went from 1.53% to 1.75%."

Moya sees $1,770 an ounce as a good support level for gold next week. At the time of writing, February Comex gold futures were trading at $1,796.90, up 0.43% on the day.

Longer-term drivers are still supportive of higher gold prices, noted Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman.

"Even if interest rates rise, high inflation still means that real rates are negative. That is positive for gold," said Millman. "Also, in the last two rate hike cycles, gold performed very well at the beginning of those hikes. We could see a replay of that when the Fed starts hiking rates later this year. It should push gold closer to $1,900."

Gold price tanked last year, can Fed make metal even worse in 2022?

Data to watch

Next week, one of the macro releases to pay close attention will be the latest U.S. inflation number, scheduled to be published on Wednesday. Market consensus calls are projecting that the consumer price index will rise to 7% on an annual basis in December.

"Next week's numbers are set to show headline CPI breaking above 7% year-on-year- fast approaching a 40-year high – with the core rate rising well above 5% YoY. This will only intensify the pressure on the Fed to start hiking rates," said ING chief international economist James Knightley.

Also, the U.S. PPI and jobless claims, scheduled for Thursday, as well as Friday's U.S. retail sales, will be key.

Markets will also be zeroing in on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's nomination hearing before the U.S. Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs. The testimony is scheduled for Tuesday.

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Gold and silver struggles continue

Gold and silver struggles continue

Today is jobs Friday. Equities and metals have been under pressure all week. The FED continues to be unable to recognize the problems they created. The question here is, what has the market priced into this job's number?

Based on recent price action, which has reversed our Gold and Silver positions to short, pushed the 10-year notes to 1.73%, and looks to be reversing the trend in equities, we can only assume a strong number is expected.

The first week of the new year has brought tumultuous results, there have been some heavy sell offs in all markets. This is the problem when the central banking system thinks they are smarter than the markets. Their history proves they are clueless.

We are short Gold, Silver and would be short Platinum. We would use these sell offs to buy physical metals as investments. While we are benefitting from the sell off with our short positions, we will be buying physical.

In all markets price action determines what will happen in the next day, week, or months. Keep the two strategies separate, the worst trade anyone can make is turning a trade into an investment hoping for a way out. Traders must learn to take their losses and move on to the next trade.

Patience, discipline, and money management always win the day. Let the map of the markets show you the way.


 

By Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold, silver sell off on bearish reaction to hawkish Fed

Gold, silver sell off on bearish reaction to hawkish Fed

Gold and silver futures prices are sharply lower in midday U.S. trading Thursday. The metals are reeling after a surprisingly hawkish report from the Federal Reserve Wednesday afternoon. February gold futures were last down $36.50 at $1,788.50 and March Comex silver was last down $1.05 at $22.11 an ounce.

The Federal Reserve's FOMC minutes that were released Wednesday afternoon indicated a "very tight" U.S. job market and rising inflation might require the central bank to raise interest rates even sooner than many already expected, and begin reducing its overall asset balance sheet. The minutes suggested inflationary concerns outweigh the economic risks posed by the rampant Omicron variant of the coronavirus. The probability that the Fed will raise interest rates in March rose to greater than 70%, according to the Fed funds futures market.

Rising U.S. interest rates as evidenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields are bullish for the U.S. dollar. Gold and the greenback many times move in the opposite direction on a daily basis. However, the U.S. dollar index has shown little reaction to the Fed minutes. Gold and the U.S. dollar compete with each other as a safe-haven store of value. Keep in mind, however, that the longer-term implications of rising interest rates and problematic price inflation are historically bullish for hard assets like the precious metals.

What does bitcoin at $100k mean for gold price? Goldman weighs in

The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 1.732%. U.S. bond yields have been on the rise for three weeks and have taken a big jump this week, including after the hawkish FOMC minutes. For perspective, the German 10-year bond (bund) is presently yielding -0.096% and the U.K. 10-year bond (gilt) yield is trading at 1.148%.

Global stock markets were lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday.

The key "outside markets" today see Nymex crude oil futures prices higher, at a seven-week high and trading around $79.75 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is slightly up today.

Attention turns to Friday's U.S. employment situation report for December, which is expected to see its key non-farm payrolls component show a rise of 425,000 after a rise of 210,000 in the November report. The overall unemployment rate is seen at 4.1% in December compared to 4.2% reported in the November report.

Technically, the February gold futures bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage as a three-week-old price uptrend on the daily chart has been negated. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close in February futures above solid resistance at this week's high of $1,833.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the December low of $1,753.00. First resistance is seen at $1,800.00 and then at the overnight high of $1,811.60. First support is seen at today's low of $1,785.40 and then at $1,775.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

March silver futures bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage and have regained power late this week. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the December high of $23.48 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the December low of $21.41. First resistance is seen at $22.50 and then at the overnight high of $22.85. Next support is seen at $21.75 and then at $21.41. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Gold price loses gains as Fed minutes signal faster rate hikes, balance sheet reduction

Gold price loses gains as Fed minutes signal faster rate hikes, balance sheet reduction

he price of gold edged down after the release of the December Federal Reserve meeting minutes signaled a possibility of earlier and faster rate hikes.

Federal Reserve officials noted that a tight labor market and high inflation in the U.S. might require faster rate hikes and a reduction in the central banks’ overall asset holdings, according to the meeting minutes released on Wednesday.

“Participants generally noted that, given their individual outlooks for the economy, the labor market, and inflation, it may become warranted to increase the federal funds rate sooner or at a faster pace than participants had earlier anticipated,” the minutes stated.

The minutes revealed a more hawkish tone, with the Fed officials considering a decline in their U.S. Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities holdings.

“Some participants also noted that it could be appropriate to begin to reduce the size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet relatively soon after beginning to raise the federal funds rate,” the minutes said.

Markets are still waiting for the Fed to comment on the impact of the omicron variant. This could come as soon as next week as Powell is scheduled to testify before the Senate Banking Committee for his nomination hearing.

In response to the news, gold erased most of its daily gains. February Comex gold futures were last at $1,816.50, up 0.10% on the day. Earlier in the session, February gold was trading at a daily high of $1,830 an ounce.

Gold price tanked last year, can Fed make metal even worse in 2022?The December meeting marked a hawkish turning point for the Fed. The central bank announced that it would be doubling its tapering pace to $30 billion a month, which would conclude the Fed's asset-purchasing program in early 2022.

The Fed cited problematic inflation and a strong economic recovery as the main reasons for the shift in policy.

It is "really appropriate" to make this monetary policy shift due to the current state of the U.S. economy, inflation, and wages, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters in December. "Price increases have now spread to a broader range of goods and services."

The updated dot-plot also revealed that Fed officials were projecting three quarter-point rate hikes in 2022.

Powell ended his December press conference by pointing out that the Fed won't be raising rates until the taper is complete. "Buying assets is adding accommodation, raising rates is removing accommodation. Since we're two meetings away from completing the taper, assuming things go as expected, if we want it to lift off before then, we would stop the taper potentially sooner. But it's not something I expect to happen," Powell said.

According to the updated projections, the Fed is looking at the real GDP to grow 5.5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022. The central bank's PCE inflation forecast was upgraded to 2.6% from 2.2% in 2022.


 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold finds support at $1798 and moves higher as Omicron variant surges

Gold finds support at $1798 and moves higher as Omicron variant surges

A tremendous spike of Covid-19 infections in the United States has broken previous records with 1 million new infections on Monday, according to the John's Hopkins University of Medicine. According to the CDC, the new variant "omicron" represents 95% of all new cases in the U.S.

According to Reuters, "The United States set a global record of almost 1 million new coronavirus infections reported on Monday, according to a Reuters tally, nearly double the country's peak of 505,109 hit just a week ago as the highly contagious Omicron variant shows no sign of slowing. The number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients has risen nearly 50% in the last week and now exceeds 100,000, a Reuters analysis showed, the first time that threshold has been reached since the winter surge a year ago."

According to the World Health Organization, the good news is "evidence thus far suggests Omicron is causing less severe illness. Nevertheless, public health officials have warned that the sheer volume of Omicron cases threatens to overwhelm hospitals, some of which are already struggling to handle a wave of COVID-19 patients, primarily among the unvaccinated."

The surge in new infections coupled with a weaker than expected U.S. manufacturing report was the primary component that took gold higher today. The ISM manufacturing index was forecasted to come in at 60.0%. However, the actual number came in below that at 58.7%. The ISM report clearly showed that growth amongst U.S. manufacturers is slowing faster than expected. The concern is that inflationary pressures will continue to grow and stifle economic recovery.

As of 4:23 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active February contract is fixed at $1814.90 after factoring in today's gain of 0.82%, or $14.80. Silver also had strong advances today with the most active March 2022 contract currently up $0.28 and fixed at $23.09.

On Friday, the U.S. Labor Department will release the jobs report for December 2021. This will certainly be the most important report that comes out this week. Current forecasts from economists polled by various new sources are indicating that the unemployment rate will decline to 4.1% and that the United States will have filled an additional 410,000 jobs. This is after a tepid jobs report last month which showed that only 210,000 new jobs were added in November.

The forecasted numbers for Friday's jobs report are currently being baked into the current pricing of the financial markets, including the precious metals. If the actual numbers come in well under the forecasted predictions, we could see a continuation of solid bullish market sentiment for gold and silver. However, if they come in at or above the forecasted projections, it could certainly diminish the bullish market sentiment that currently exists in both metals.

 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

The first trading day of 2022 results in strong declines in both gold and silver

The first trading day of 2022 results in strong declines in both gold and silver

The first trading day contained strong bullish market sentiment for U.S. equities and dollar strength. The dollar gained 0.632 points or a percentage gain of 0.66%. Concurrently U.S. equities all traded to higher ground, with all three major indices closing near their record highs. The Dow Jones industrial average gained 246.76 points, a percentage gain of 0.68%. The NASDAQ composite gained 1.2% or 187.83 points, and the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 30.38 points taking the index to a record high close at 4796.49.

The combination of a strong performance in U.S. equities, U.S. dollar strength and rising interest rates vis-à-vis U.S. debt instruments pressured the precious metals lower across the board. Palladium had the largest percentage drawdown giving up 4.45% or $85.10, with the most active futures contract currently fixed at $1827. This puts the differential between gold and palladium approximately $26 apart. Silver lost 1.85% in trading today or $0.43 taking the most active March Comex futures contract to $22.92. Platinum also sustained a loss just over a full percentage point with the most active Comex contract currently fixed at $954.90 a decline of 1.17%.

With 2021 behind us, we can see that gold had a fairly strong decline in 2021 of 3.6%. It seems as though the recent rise in treasury yields has not affected U.S. equities with any negative market sentiment. Of course, the U.S. dollar rose as a direct result of higher yields in treasuries. This Friday when the U.S. Labor Department releases its nonfarm payroll report will be the next large catalyst that will move gold in one direction or the other. Currently, economists polled are forecasting a gain of 400,000 jobs and considering that the December report for November’s jobs came in roughly half of the projection. If the economist projections are correct, it will represent a tremendous rise in new jobs added last month.

As of 5:05 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active February 2022 Comex contract has sustained a decline of $27.30, or 1.49%. Gold futures are currently fixed at $1801.30. Gold opened in tradingthis morning at $1830, traded to an intraday high of $1833 before falling just below $1800 at $1798.20. Unquestionably gold has traded under dramatic pressure today but, at least for now, was able to close above the key psychological level of $1800 per ounce.

Our technical studies indicate major resistance at $1833.50, which corresponds to the 38% Fibonacci retracement from a short data set beginning at $1758.20. The lows occurred on November 3, which was the day the November FOMC meeting ended. Our Fibonacci data set includes November 16, when market forces took gold to an intraday high of $1879.80. Below that major resistance area is the next level which occurs at $1816, which is a price point that gold traded to before finding resistance on multiple occasions. And the last level of resistance comes in between $1800 and $1804.60 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level using the same data set as above.

Although gold sold off harshly today if it can hold the price point above $1800, it bodes well for that price point being a key and critical support level. Our studies also indicate a major level of support at $1785 which is based upon the 78% Fibonacci retracement level.

 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Retail Investor see gold hitting record highs above $2,000 in 2022

Retail Investor see gold hitting record highs above $2,000 in 2022

Retail investors remain significantly bullish on gold prices next year as the precious metal looks to end 2021 with nearly a 4% loss.

Gold prices have seen a solid push higher, moving above $1,800 an ounce on the last trading day of 2021. Spot gold prices last traded at $1,827.95 an ounce; however, the market started the year at $1,898 an ounce.

It has been a relatively disappointing year for the gold market, which saw some pretty volatile moves. Including a flash crash in August that saw the price drop below $1,700 an ounce. Gold prices have struggled to attract bullish attention even as real interest rates fell to historic negative territory, driven by extraordinary inflation pressure.

Analysts note that the rise in consumer prices this past year has been met with expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten interest rates soon than expected. At its December monetary policy meeting, the U.S. central bank signaled that it would end its monthly bond purchase by March and could raise interest rate three times in 2022.

However, U.S. monetary policy is not scaring many retail investors who appear to be significantly bullish on gold heading into the new year. According to Kitco News' annual outlook survey, a clear majority of Main Street investors expect gold prices to push new record highs in 2022.

This year, nearly 3,000 people participated in Kitco's annual online survey. Of those 1,605, 54% said they see gold prices above $2,000. Meanwhile, 592 voters, or 20%, said that gold would trade between $1,900 and $2,000.

In last year's outlook price survey, 84% of retail investors expected gold prices to rise above $2,000.

The results show that only 352 retail investors or 12% see gold prices holding relatively steady in the current range between $1,800 and $1,900 an ounce.

Meanwhile, 158 or 5% of participants see gold prices trading between $1,700 and $1,800 an ounce.

On the outright bearish side, 109 voters or less than 4% see gold prices trading between $1,600 and $1,700 an ounce, and 130 people slightly more than 4% see gold prices dropping below $1,600 an ounce.

There have been a few bearish calls that have stood out in recent weeks. Analysts at J.P.Morgan Research said that gold prices could average around $1,520 by the fourth quarter of 2022.

Meanwhile, Georgette Boele, senior FX & precious metals strategist for the Dutch bank, said that she sees gold prices falling to $1,500 an ounce by the end of next year.

Wall Street analysts have no clear consensus regarding where gold prices will go next year. Many analysts have said that while the specter of rate hikes next year could weigh on gold prices, much of the bad news has been priced in.

Many banks see gold prices trading in a reasonably wide range between $1,800 and $2,000. The most significant factor to drive gold price in 2022 remains real interest rates. Although the Federal Reserve is looking to raise interest rates three times next year, many economists expect inflation to stay above 4%, which means real rates will remain deep in negative territory. Almost all economists predict that the Federal Reserve will remain well behind the inflation curve in 2022.

Among the bullish banks, Goldman Sachs is one of the most optimistic. In November, analysts said they see prices pushing above $2,000 an ounce by the end of the year.

Wells Fargo is also bullish on gold next year, looking for $2,000 an ounce as the precious metal plays catch up to the rest of the commodity complex. John LaForge, head of real asset strategy for Wells Fargo gold, will be sensitive to U.S. monetary policy in 2022; however, he added that it is unlikely the Federal Reserve will adopt overly aggressive monetary policies.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Buy Gold and Silver on Dips and earn monthly yields on holdings

 

 

David

What does 2022 hold for Gold, Silver and Platinum?

What does 2022 hold for Gold, Silver and Platinum?

Today ends 2021; the year in metals was not pretty. Gold, silver and platinum all closed lower from where they opened the year. None of them could seem to get a consistent trend. Silver had one of its tightest trading ranges in years. 

As we look ahead to the new year, we would expect much of the same action. However, they appear to be setting up for a much bigger move – direction to be decided. A case can be made for either side and probably will make big moves in both directions. 

We could see as low as $1,450 in Gold and see new highs; platinum could bring $800 and new highs, silver under $20 and $35. The compression we have watched suggests we could see either of these moves or all of them. We can confidently say that 2022 will bring a ton of volatility and big moves in both directions. 

In all markets, price action determines what will happen in the next day, week, or month. Keep the two strategies separate. The worst trade anyone can make is turning a trade into an investment hoping for a way out. Traders must learn to take their losses and move on to the next trade. 

Patience, discipline, and money management always win the day. Let the map of the markets show you the way.

On Monday, Jan. 23, 2022, we will resume the Monday Night Strategy Call at 4:30 EST. 

2022-01-03 Monday Night Strategy Call

By Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz

Contributing to kitco.com

Buy Gold and Silver on Dips and earn monthly yields on holdings

David

Gold Investors need to look beyond rate hikes in 2022 – State Street Global Advisors

Gold Investors need to look beyond rate hikes in 2022 – State Street Global Advisors

After a disappointing year, gold prices are ringing in 2022 on a solid note, trading at a five-week high. According to one precious metals analyst, gold should be on pace to resume its long-term bullish uptrend in the new year.

In a telephone interview with Kitco News, George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, said that his base case scenario, with a 50% probability, is for gold prices to trade between $1,800 and $2,000 an ounce in 2022. He added that he sees a 30% chance of gold prices pushing above $2,000 to a new record high.

“We see an 80% chance of gold prices staying in the current range to moving higher next year,” he said. “Even with the Federal Reserve looking to tighten interest rates next year, we think gold has a pretty good chance of moving higher.”

On the downside, Milling-Stanley said that State Street sees a 20% chance of gold trading between $1,600 and $1,800 an ounce.

Milling-Stanley reiterated his stance that gold investors don’t have to fear the impending pivot in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. During the last U.S. central bank monetary policy meeting, the Federal Reserve signaled that it would end its monthly bond purchases by March and raise interest rates three times next year.

However, Milling-Stanley pointed out that during the last tightening cycle, between 2015 and 2019, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates nine times and gold prices rallied nearly 35%. He added this isn’t an isolated incident. Between 2004 and 2005 the U.S. central bank raised rates 17 times and gold prices rallied 70%, he said.

“Investors should look beyond nominal policy rates and examine other factors such as real interest rates and/or the gold market’s supply and demand dynamics that may impact gold price movement,” Milling-Stanley said in his 2022 outlook forecast.

Milling-Stanley added that investors also need to put the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance in a much larger perspective within financial markets. With inflation expected to remain elevated through 2022, real interest rates will remain in negative territory.

Milling-Stanley said that it is unlikely Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will take an overly aggressive stance on monetary policy to combat inflation. He added that he forecasts that the Federal Reserve will only raises interest rates twice next year, an estimate below current market predictions.

“Raising interest rates tend to chock off economic growth and important sectors like the housing market,” he said. “That is the last thing the Federal Reserve will want to do next year. I think the Federal Reserve would tolerate inflation between 3% and 6.”

Looking past interest rates and U.S. monetary policy, Milling-Stanley said that gold will also remain an attractive safe-haven asset in 2022 as investors look to hedge their risky bets.

One reason investors shunned gold through 2021 is due to the unprecedented bullish fun in equity markets. The S&P 500 is looking to the year at record highs, up 27% for the year.

Although real interest rates are expected to remain low, Milling-Stanley said that inflation could weigh on elevated equity market valuations.

“Given the strong rally in financial markets in 2021, the potential for a cyclical correction, valuation-driven mean reversion, increased market volatility, or an exogenous tail risk has increased in 2022,” Milling-Stanley said in his outlook forecast. “This potential for higher volatility may push investors to gold as a potential hedge against heightened market risks. Historically, gold has served investors well against short-term volatility shocks.”

Milling-Stanley said that one final factor that should help support gold in the new year is a potential recovery in emerging markets.

“In China and India — two of the key emerging economies for the gold market — signs point to further consumer recovery throughout 2022,” he said.
 

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

 

Buy, Sell Gold and Silver, with Free Storage and Monthly Yields

David