Gold prices are trading not far from unchanged and near this week’s 11-month low in early U.S. trading Friday. Silver prices are firmer on short covering after hitting a two-year low this week. Bullish outside market forces on this day are friendly for the metals, as the U.S. dollar index is lower, crude oil prices are firmer and bond yields have backed off a bit. However, the overall postures of those three key elements still lean bearish for the metals and continue to keep their prices tamped down. August gold futures were last up $0.50 at $1,706.20. September Comex silver futures were last up $0.23 at $18.45 an ounce.
Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward mixed openings when the New York day session beings. It’s a busy U.S. data day to end the trading week, highlighted by the retail sales report for June. Sales came in up a slightly higher-than-expected up 1.0%. Sales were forecast up 0.9% compared to the May report that was down 0.3%. Markets showed no significant reactions to the data.
Other U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes the Empire State manufacturing survey, import and export prices, industrial production and capacity utilization, manufacturing and trade inventories and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey.
In overnight news, China, the world’s second-largest economy, reported its GDP cooled sharply in the second quarter due to Covid lockdowns. China’s GDP was up just 0.4%, year-on-year. That was below market expectations and the lowest since the first quarter of 2020, when the pandemic began.
Gold hammered, analysts warn of capitulation event if price drops below pre-pandemic levels
The commodity markets have sent two strong, early signals to the marketplace the past couple weeks that traders and investors need to heed. Crude oil, gold, copper, silver, the grains, coffee, cotton and other markets have posted very sharp losses. Those two signals are one, that price inflation overall has very likely peaked, and two, that the U.S. and other major economies are on the verge of recession, if not already there. The smart money in the marketplace will not be making trades counter to those two strong signals.
The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $97.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.93%.
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Technically, the August gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at $1,715.00 and then at $1,725.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $1,695.00 and then at $1,685.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0
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September silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices hit a two-year low overnight. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $19.36. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at $18.63 and then at $19.00. Next support is seen at $18.00 and then at $17.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.
By Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News
Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips
David