Gold bears remain in control as short squeeze runs out of momentum

Gold bears remain firmly in control of the market as prices have been unable to hold gains above $1,750 and a short squeeze on hedge funds has proved to be short-lived.

According to market analysts, hedge funds remain pessimistic about gold as markets shift expectations that the Federal Reserve will quickly pivot from its current aggressive monetary policy strategy.

Further rate hikes through the rest of the year and in the first quarter of 2023 continue to support the U.S. dollar at a 20-year high and bond yields above 3%, two significant headwinds for the precious metal.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 74% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by another 75 basis points later this month.

Commodity analysts at TD Securities noted that gold's dismal performance through the summer indicates that the market has priced in higher interest rates; however, they added that the next wave of selling will be driven by expectations that a much-anticipated pivot is further away than initially thought.

"While gold prices may now have accurately captured the expected level of interest rates, they are not reflecting the implications of a sustained period of restrictive policy. Further, we see odds of a major capitulation event growing with every tick lower in gold prices," the analysts said in a note. "Gold markets still feature an extremely concentrated and bloated position held by a small number of family offices and proprietary trading shops, which are increasingly at risk as prices approach their pandemic-era entry levels."

The CFTC disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending Aug. 30 showed money managers decreased their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 4,089 contracts to 91,761. At the same time, short positions rose by 6,234 contracts to 79,973.

Gold's net length now stands at 11,788 contracts, down 46% from the previous week. During the survey period, gold prices briefly rose above $1,750 an ounce but could not hold those gains.

Platinum remains well supported even as surplus grows to 974k ounces – WPIC

Since then, gold prices have been stuck near support just above $1,700 an ounce.

Commodity analysts at Société Générale noted that the entire precious metals complex saw bearish flows of $2.5 billion.

"These flows came as Jerome Powell delivered his Jackson Hole speech. As the US Fed chair reiterated that the focus of the central bank is to tame inflation, precious metal prices fell, as higher interest rates erode the appeal of the non-interest-generating, safe-asset, bullion," the analysts.

As bearish as the sentiment is in the gold market, it is being outpaced by silver. Hedge funds made significant bearish bets in silver, according to the latest trade data.

The disaggregated report showed that money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex silver futures fell by 564 contracts to 31,139. At the same time, short positions rose by 4,643 Analysts note that gross long are at their lowest point since Nov. 18, demonstrating how little contracts to 52,170.

bullish interest there is in the precious metal.

Silver's positioning remains net short by 21,031 contracts, up nearly 33%. During the survey period, silver prices dropped below $19.00 an ounce.

The sentiment in the silver market has continued to sour as prices have dropped below $18 an ounce.

Some analysts have said that growing recession fears continue to weigh on silver prices as 60% of demand comes from industrial uses.

Recession fears can also be seen in the copper market as hedge funds liquidate their bullish bets.

Copper's disaggregated report showed money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex high-grade copper futures fell by 3,126 contracts to 37,617. At the same time, short positions rose by only 63 contracts to 46,284.

Positioning in the copper market remains solidly bearish with a new net short position of 8,667 contracts. During the survey period, copper prices hovered near support around $3.60 an ounce.

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

$50,000 gold is likely once the monetary system returns to a gold standard – John Butler

s the world transitions to a gold standard monetary system, the price of gold will skyrocket to $50,000 per ounce, said John Butler, Head of Treasury at TallyMoney and author of The Golden Revolution, Revisited.

“Today, the gold price is too low to allow markets to clear, because assets are over-valued vis-à-vis gold,” he said. “According to my calculations, you’re talking about something in the region of $50,000 per ounce being [reasonable] if you go back to a gold-backed international monetary system.”

Butler claimed that the process of transitioning to a gold standard is inevitable as the U.S. loses its economic dominance and the world become multipolar.

“Gold solves for the game-theoretic monetary equilibrium for a multipolar world that is, nevertheless, hugely dependent on international trade,” he explained. “At the end of the Second World War, the U.S. economy was roughly half the entire global economy. By activity today, it’s only 20 percent… If you just extrapolate this trend, ultimately, it’s going to tip the balance regardless of whether the U.S. retains military superiority or not.”

Butler spoke with David Lin, Anchor and Producer at Kitco News.

Fed policy and gold

On August 26th, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gave a hawkish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, stating that it would require “pain” to bring inflation down to 2 percent.

The latest data show that U.S. inflation was 8.5 percent in July.

Opinion is divided on whether the Fed will pivot on its tightening cycle. Butler said that Powell would reverse rate hikes, which could benefit gold.

“[The Fed’s hawkish moment] is taking place right now,” said Butler. “When it goes, and markets reassess in a substantial way that central banks are far more powerless to act on inflation than they thought, I think gold is going to recover all of its losses this year, and indeed reach new highs.”

He added that Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech was merely a “credibility restoration exercise,” and that “The U.S. economy is unable to last with strength if interest rates continue to rise,” which would cause “The Fed to blink sooner than most people believe.”

BRICS: a new reserve currency?

The BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are allegedly developing a new reserve currency, based on a basket of BRICs currencies, to rival the U.S. dollar.

Butler said that although the claim of a new reserve currency “has been a rhetorical talking point for an awfully long time,” that “a heightened degree of geopolitical tensions around the world” could mean more progress towards the BRICS’ goal.

“If [the BRICS] decide to somehow come up with a way to trade bilaterally, and to use each others’ currencies as reserves, or to create a basket of their own currencies and use that as reserves… that would be a world historical event,” he said.

In his book, Butler wrote that the BRICS countries would likely choose “a gold-backed currency of some sort” as “an objective reference currency that can be trusted and accepted by all.”

“The fact is that nobody can print gold, and nobody can create gold,” said Butler. “It’s nice to know that Mother Nature determines how much gold is available… [Gold] facilitates all the good things about international trade while mitigating the potential bad things about monetary manipulation.”
 

To find out Butler’s thoughts on Bitcoin, watch the video above
 

By Cornelius Christian

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Gold price rallies modestly as U.S. jobs data close to expectations

The gold market is holding on to modest gains but is still looking to end the week on a sour note below $1,750 an ounce as the U.S. economy continued to add slightly more jobs than expected last month.

Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said 315,000 jobs were created in August The data beat expectations economists were forecasting job gains of around 295,000.

However, the unemployment rate jumped higher than expected, rising 3.7% last month. Economists were expecting the rate to hold steady at 3.5%.

The gold market is seeing some buying momentum following the latest employment report. December gold futures last traded at $1,721 an ounce, up 0.68% on the day.

Although the headline number was positive, the report noted sharp downward revisions for June. The bureau revised June’s employment data down by 105,000 jobs to 293,000. July’s data was revised down to 526,000 from the initial estimate of 528,000.

Also positive for gold are signs that wages could be plateauing, a sign that inflation pressures continue to ease. The report said that average hourly wages increased 0.3% or by 10 last month. Economists were expecting to see a 0.4% increase. For the year wages have risen 5.2%.

The weak wage inflation data’s positive impact on gold could seem counter intuitive for some investors. However, market analysts have noted that easing inflation pressure could prompt the Federal Reserve to slow its pace of monetary policy tightening, which would be positive for gold.

So far, the data has not had much impact on interest rate expectations. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets still see a 75% chance that the Federal Reserve raises the Fed Funds rate by 75 basis points later this month.

Avery Shenfeld, senior economist at CIBC, said that although the data was positive, there was still enough “bad news” in the report to bring some relief to markets.

“In an US overheated economy, slightly bad news should be good news for markets, and today’s jobs data had a small taste of that,” he said. “The bond market has been selling off in the days leading up to the data and will see a bit of relief today, and even equities might be happier with a somewhat cooler temperature reading on what has been a too-tight labor market.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Strong greenback, rising Treasury yields, lower oil sink gold, silver

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Thursday, with gold hitting a six-week low and dropping below the key $1,700 level. Silver today scored a more-than-two-year low. Falling crude oil prices, a strong U.S. dollar index and rising U.S. Treasury yields are all bearish elements punishing the metals markets bulls. October gold futures were last down $18.80 at $1,698.10. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.277 at $17.65 an ounce.

U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday hit five-week lows. Risk aversion is higher on this first day of September, a month that history has shown can be a rocky one for stock and financial markets. Gold and silver market bulls are hoping some safe-haven demand develops if September sees rough trading waters.

There are new reports of major Covid lockdowns in China, the world’s second-largest economy. Reports said 21 million people have been locked down in a major industrial region of the country. Economic data out of China Friday was also dour, with the purchasing managers indexes (PMIs) and housing/property indicators showing weakness. This has prompted concerns of slowing consumer and commercial demand in China, which have pressured raw commodity markets this week, with crude oil leading the way down. Other major economies are tightening their monetary policies, which will also work to slow their growth. Many market watchers fear U.S. and global economic recessions are setting in.

Traders are awaiting Friday morning’s employment situation report from the Labor Department. That report is expected to show the key non-farm payrolls growth number at up 325,000 in August versus the July report showing a gain of 528,000 non-farm jobs.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $87.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher and hit another 20-year high today. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 3.25%. The 2-year U.S. Treasury note yield hit a 15-year high today. The inverted yield curve is another clue suggesting a U.S. economic recession is imminent.

Technically, October gold futures prices hit a six-week low today. The gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,713.10 and then at Wednesday’s high of $1,728.70. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,689.80 and then at $1,686.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

December silver futures prices hit another more-than-two-year low today. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at $18.00 and then at $18.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $17.40 and then at $17.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 1,030 points at 341.60 cents today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a four-week low. The copper bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 378.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 351.65 cents and then at Wednesday’s high of 359.90 cents. First support is seen at 340.00 cents and then at 335.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold, silver down as crude oil drops, U.S. Treasury yields rise

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Wednesday, with gold hitting a five-week low and silver a more-than-two-year low. Gold prices were well up from their daily lows, however.

Eroding crude oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury yields at mid-week are bearish outside market elements working against the metals markets on this day. October gold futures were last down $4.10 at $1,722.70. December Comex silver futures were last down $0.307 at $17.985 an ounce.

Today’s ADP national employment report for August showed a paltry rise of 132,000 jobs, which was well below the gain of 300,000 that the marketplace expected. The marketplace showed little reaction to the report, which has a recent history of not being a good indicator of Friday morning’s more important employment situation report from the Labor Department. That report is expected to show the key non-farm payrolls growth number at up 325,000 in August versus the July report showing a gain of 528,000 non-farm jobs.

Global stock markets were mostly lower overnight. U.S. stock indexes are weaker at midday. Traders and investors remain tentative at mid-week, following the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole symposium that saw U.S. Fed officials, including Chairman Powell, lean aggressively hawkish on U.S. monetary policy. Other major central banks of the world are also tightening their monetary policies—all in an effort to tamp down problematic price inflation, even if it slows global economic growth.

Speaking of inflation, the Euro zone got more hot readings as the August consumer price index rose 9.1%, year-on-year, which was slightly above market expectations.

The markets have not reacted much, but are paying close attention to reports that Taiwan’s military fired warning shots at drones, thought to be from mainland China, that were flying close to Taiwan.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly and trading around $90.00 a barrel. Reports are now indicating OPEC-plus will not cut its collective crude oil production. The U.S. dollar index is lower in midday U.S. trading. Meantime, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 3.12%.

Technically,October gold futures prices hit a five-week low today. The gold futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,780.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,686.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,728.70 and then at Tuesday’s high of $1,743.10. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,711.70 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December silver futures prices hit a more-than-two-year low today. The silver bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $19.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $17.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $18.39 and then at this week’s high of $18.83. Next support is seen at today’s low of $17.80 and then at $17.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 340 points at 351.70 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a three-week low. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 378.35 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of 315.55 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 359.90 cents and then at this week’s high of 370.10 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 344.45 cents and then at 340.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David