A bubble? We don’t even know how to value Bitcoin

A bubble We don't even know how to value Bitcoin

A bubble? We don’t even know how to value Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a “speculative mania” according to the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia. But it’s not so easy to say that Bitcoin is a bubble – we don’t know how to value it.

Recent price rises (close to $18,000 in the past three months) may be too great and can’t continue. But the Bitcoin market is only just maturing as an investment and as a currency, and so it may still have room to grow.

A bubble is when the price of an asset diverges from its “fundamentals” – the aspects of an asset that investors use to value it. These could be the income that can be earned from a stock over time, a company’s cash flow, the state of a country’s economy, or even the rent from property.

But Bitcoin does not pay out profits (like shares) or rent (like property) and is not attached a national economy (like fiat currencies). This is part of the reason why it is hard to tell what the underlying value of Bitcoin is or should be.

In the search for fundamentals some have suggested we should look at the supply of Bitcoins in the market (which is regulated by the technology itself), the number of Bitcoin transactions through the market, or even the energy consumed by Bitcoin miners (the computers that validate transactions and are rewarded with Bitcoins).

Diverging from fundamentals

If we take a close look, we can see how the price of Bitcoin may be diverging from these fundamentals. For instance, it is becoming less profitable to be a miner, especially as the energy required increases. At some stage the cost may exceed the price of Bitcoin, making the network less worthwhile to both mine and invest.

Bitcoin may be the best known cryptocurrency but it is also losing marketshare to other cryptocurrencies, such as Ethereum and Litecoin. Bitcoin currently accounts for 59.4% of the total global cryptocurrency market but at the beginning of 2016 it was 91.3%. Many of these other cryptocurrencies have more functionality than Bitcoin (such as Ethereum’s ability to execute smart contracts), or are more efficient and use less energy (such as Litecoin).

Government policy, such as taxation or the establishment of national digital currencies, may also make it riskier or less worthwhile to mine, transact or hold the cryptocurrency. China’s ban on initial coin offerings earlier this year reduced the value of Bitcoin by 20% in 24 hours.

Without these fundamentals the price of Bitcoin largely reflects speculation. And there is some evidence that people are simply buying and holding Bitcoin in the hope it will keep rising in value (also known as greater fool investing). Certainly, the cap on the total number (21 million) of Bitcoins that can exist makes the currency inherently deflationary – the value of the currency relative to goods and services will keep increasing even without speculation and so there is a disincentive to spend it.

Bitcoin still has room to grow

Many big investors – including banks and hedge funds – have not yet entered into the market. The volatility and lack of regulation around Bitcoin are two reasons stopping these investors from jumping in.

There are new financial products being developed, such as futures contracts, that may reduce the risk of holding Bitcoin and allow these institutional investors to get in.

But Bitcoin futures contracts – where people can place bets on the future price of stocks or markets – may also work against the price of Bitcoin. Just like gamblers place bets on horse races rather than buying a horse, investors may simply buy and sell the futures contracts rather than Bitcoin itself (some contracts are even settled in cash, rather than Bitcoin). All of this could lead to less actual Bitcoin changing hands, leading to less demand.

Although the rush to invest is apparently encouraging some people to take out mortgages to buy Bitcoin, traditional banks won’t lend specifically for that purpose as the market is too volatile.

But it is not just on the finance side that the Bitcoin market is set to expand. More infrastructure to support Bitcoin in the broader economy is rolling out, which should spur demand.

Bitcoin ATMs are being installed in many countries, including Australia. Bitcoin lending is emerging on peer-to-peer platforms, and new and more regulated marketplaces are being created.

Many companies are accepting Bitcoin as payment. That means that even if the speculation dies down, Bitcoin can still be traded for some goods and services.

And finally, although the fundamentals of Bitcoin are still up for debate, when it comes to transaction volume through the network there appears to be a lot of room for growth.

It’s good to remember that people have been calling Bitcoin a bubble for a long time, even when the price was just US$35 in 2013.

In the end, this is uncharted territory. We don’t know how to value Bitcoin, or what will happen. Historical examples may or may not apply.

What we do know is that the technology behind most cryptocurrencies is enabling new models of value transfer through secure global consensus networks and that is causing excitement and nervousness. Investors should beware.

Author: Alicia (Lucy) Cameron and Kelly Trinh for the Conversation

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur
David Ogden Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur

David

Bitcoin Bulls Face ‘Alt’ Competition in Push to $20k

Bitcoin Bulls Face 'Alt' Competition in Push to $20k

Bitcoin Bulls Face 'Alt' Competition in Push to $20

Bitcoin may still be in the hunt for $20,000, but the bulls need progress soon else a minor pullback could be in the offing.

As per CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index (BPI), the cryptocurrency is trading at $17,539, having appreciated 4.48 percent in the last 24 hours to a new all-time high.

But while that's a modest, even impressive gain, it's worth noting that alternative currencies like litecoin and ether have strengthened by even more impressive rallies.

On the day's trading, the cryptocurrencies, the second and fourth by market volume, have seen 71.8 percent and 30 percent gains, respectively. Coinbase's GDAX exchange and South Korea's Bithumb have emerged as the primary drivers.

All told, though the stellar performance of litecoin and ether could be indicative of their availability and appeal to new buyers. Hence, a minor correction in bitcoin (BTC) cannot be ruled out as other assets garner attention.

1-hour chart

Bitcoin Bulls Face 'Alt' Competition in Push to $20k

The above chart shows:

  • Bull flag breakout followed by a nice rising lows pattern as represented by the ascending trend line.
  • The relative strength index is above 50.00 (in the bullish territory) and is trending.
  • The 1-hour 50-MA is curled up in favor of the bulls.

View

 

BTC could cut through the resistance at $17,500 and make a move towards the $18,300-$18,500 level over the next 12-24 hours.

Overall, the cryptocurrency looks set to test the major psychological level of $20,000. As noted earlier today, only two end-of-day closes below the $14,000 would abort the bullish view on the charts.

Author: Omkar Godbole

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur
David Ogden Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur

David

Rise of Bitcoins causes stir but questions linger

Anthony Mburu and his fiancée Elizabeth John at Nation Centre on November 22, 2017 for an interview. Mburu paid part of his dowry using Bitcoin

Rise of Bitcoins causes stir but questions linger

Anthony Mburu and his fiancée Elizabeth John who recently attracted curiosity when he paid part of his dowry using Bitcoins, a form of digital currency, in Naivasha Kenya,considers himself a non-conformist.

Having quit university in 2010 after just one semester of his engineering course, 26-year-old Anthony Mburu does not fancy formal education, for instance.

“Formal education is good. It will give you an average life. You’ll eat, have your mortgage, car loan and all that — live an average life; struggle through life to the end,” he opined.

WALUBENGO: Kenya's uneasy dance with Bitcoin

DOWRY

He currently makes a living out of “mining” Bitcoins and he says that is the source of income that has enabled him buy a parcel of land in Naivasha, stay in a rented house and has given him something to buy and maintain his car among other fortunes.

“Everything is Bitcoin. Where I live, Bitcoin; what I drive, Bitcoin; investment, Bitcoin,” he said.

The computer-generated currency, he says, enabled him pay part of his dowry.

On November 11, as he headed to the home of his fiancée Elizabeth Chege in Naivasha, he had already negotiated with his in-laws that the goats portion of his dowry be settled with Bitcoins.

MOBILE APPLICATION

There are some components of the dowry process he paid for in hard cash.

His father-in-law, John Thion’go Chege, a retired KenGen employee, bought the idea.

They helped him download a mobile phone application that works as a Bitcoin wallet.

“We told him, ‘You just receive this and keep it. In a few months, you will have double the dowry. And if you keep [real] goats, they’ll still be the same goats,’” Mr Mburu said.

Ms Chege, the 6th born in a family of nine children, said her parents did not ask many questions despite the fact that Bitcoin is not a well-known concept in Kenya.

“They can’t refuse because they believe in me,” she said.

CBK

Mr Mburu’s unprecedented action has drawn mixed reactions since Bitcoin is a currency the Central Bank of Kenya has told the public to eschew because it is not backed by any regulator.

In a recent interview, Central Bank of Kenya Governor Patrick Njoroge reiterated his disdain for Bitcoin, saying the way the currency’s value has shot up is proof that it could be a Ponzi scheme.

“Our point is that there is risk and it is important that everybody knows that those risks can come back to haunt us and have financial stability concerns,” Dr Njoroge said.

VALUE

Those who are in Dr Njoroge’s school of thought have been criticising the Bitcoin dowry deal.

“Ikicollapse nayo? Give back the bride…” a commentator on NTV’s YouTube channel joked.

Another viewer wrote: “That family better cash in on those Bitcoins. The Bitcoin bubble will burst… Eventually.”

But the currency is fast gaining prominence in Kenya as many people try their luck with this fortune whose value has been sharply rising, much that by Saturday , one Bitcoin was selling for close to Sh900,000 locally.

The value was barely Sh10,000 a year ago.

On the global scale, one Bitcoin was selling at $8,480 (Sh875,984).

SELLERS

On Saturday afternoon on localBitcoins.com, one of the platforms where Bitcoins are sold by Kenyans to other Kenyans, there were at least 10 active sellers.

One in Nairobi was selling 0.150544 of a Bitcoin for Sh140,000, which they wanted to be sent to him via M-Pesa.

Another one in Nakuru wanted Sh250,000 sent to his bank account before he could load any willing buyer’s Bitcoin account with 0.26153363 of Bitcoin.

There are many ways of making money though Bitcoin, and Mr Mburu’s preferred way is through “mining”.

PURCHASE SHARES

He is a member of Bitclub Network, which helps Kenyans and other people across the globe buy shares in the Bitcoin enterprise.

The Kenyan chapter of the club, which has more than 1,000 members, meets in Nairobi every Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

Asked what one needs to do to get into mining, Mr Mburu replied:

“Just buy shares. The company dealing with that is Bitclub Network. And one unit is going for $599 (Sh61,876).

"So, you buy Bitcoins worth that much and buy that mining capacity; like you buy a machine. It’s a real machine called Antminer S9.”

He adds: “Once you buy it, it’s stored in our facility in Iceland, and there’s a 30-day period of paying that you’ll not be earning.”

GOATS

Ever since he discovered Bitcoin — which he says brings him at least $5,000 (Sh515,500) per month — he has not looked back and he is planning for a wedding in April 2018. “It will be a Bitcoin wedding,” he said.

Mr Mburu was also dismissive of those who say he might have taken his in-laws for a ride.

“They don’t know what it is. Bitcoin has been there, and it’s going nowhere,” he said.

The Bitcoins he paid were and equivalent of 25 goats. He still has 75 to go “which are yet to be paid in Bitcoins” as he put it.

GROWTH

His fiancée runs a clothes shop in Nairobi and she has also been accepting payment via Bitcoin, though the mode of exchange is yet to gain ground in Kenya.

Mr Michael Kimani, the chairman of the Blockchain Association of Kenya, has been dealing with cryptocurrencies since 2012 and says the field will grow exponentially.

“A lot of opportunities are going to emerge from this and I’m trying to position myself with this industry because I honestly think in the next five years, this is going to be so big that people will forget how we used to live without cryptocurrency,” he said.

 

Author: ELVIS ONDIEKI

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur
David Ogden Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur

 

David

Holding Strong – Failed Price Breakdown a Boon for Bitcoin Bulls

Holding Strong - Failed Price Breakdown a Boon for Bitcoin Bulls

Holding Strong – Failed Price Breakdown a Boon for Bitcoin Bulls

Bitcoin has witnessed decent two-way business in the last 24 hours.

A drop below $8,000 during the Asian day was quickly undone and the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value once again approached record highs, hitting $8,333 this morning.

At press time, bitcoin is changing hands at $8,228, according to CoinDesk's Bitcoin Price Index.

As per CoinMarketCap, the bitcoin-U.S. dollar (BTC/USD) exchange rate has appreciated by 1.13 percent in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, the total trading volume in the last 24 hours was $5 billion, the highest since Nov. 16.

The price action analysis indicates the failed breakdown below $8,000 may be costly for the bears.

4 hour Chart
Holding Strong - Failed Price Breakdown a Boon for Bitcoin Bulls
The chart above shows:

Failed breakdown: BTC witnessed a solid rebound from the upward sloping 50-MA and is back in the rising channel.

The relative strength index (RSI) holds above 50.00 (bullish territory).

1-hour chart
Holding Strong - Failed Price Breakdown a Boon for Bitcoin Bulls

The descending trend line seen on the chart above has been breached as well, suggesting there is scope for a rally.

View

The charts suggest a rally to new all-time highs around $8,600 (rising channel ceiling) is possible. The 10-day moving average (MA) is sloping upwards, suggesting dips below the same could be short-lived. Currently, the 10-day MA stands at $7,949 levels.

However, multiple 4-hour closes below $7,900 levels would warrant caution on the part of the bulls. In such a case, a deeper pullback to sub-$7,600 could be seen.

 

 

Author Omkar Godbole Nov 24, 2017 at 12:15 UTC

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur

David Ogden Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur

David

Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash – Can Both Survive

Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash - Can Both Survive

Bitcoin vs. Bitcoin Cash: Can Both Survive?

Industry leaders comment on which will dominate the market: Bitcoin or Bitcoin Cash.

You could be forgiven for thinking Bitcoin Cash was dead; the currency had slumped to about $600 before a sudden revival last week caused the price to soar to $2,600 while simultaneously knocking Bitcoin down a few notches.

As a brief recap, Bitcoin recorded a new all-time high of about $7,800 on Wednesday, November 8 followed by a downward trend, which saw Bitcoin fall by nearly 30 percent to under $5,630 by Sunday, November 12. The root of this was that the Bitcoin community couldn’t reach a consensus to proceed with the proposed SegWit2x hard fork. However, it didn’t take long for Bitcoin to return to its previous values and seek new highs.

The discussions of a hard fork finds its root in the one megabyte block size limit that the original developer of Bitcoin, Satoshi Nakamoto, set to make the digital currency more secure. Given the limit of only 21 million Bitcoins, Satoshi most likely didn’t envisage that Bitcoin will be as huge and valuable as it is today. That’s certainly understandable since nothing like it had ever existed.

However, now that the digital currency has become more popular than Satoshi probably envisaged, the currency is dealing with the modesty of its original design. Bitcoin’s lack of capacity has led to the growing amount of time it takes to process Bitcoin transactions. Those who would like to have their transactions confirmed in a timely manner have to pay relatively more transaction fee as an incentive for transaction validators (miners) to prioritize their transactions.

According to a website that tracks Bitcoin fees, the current “fastest and cheapest transaction fee is currently 770 satoshis/byte.” For reference, a comment on BitcoinTalk pointed out that the recommended fee (same as the fastest and cheapest fee) as of January 2017 was 120 satoshis. That’s over 500 percent increase in the recommended transaction fee since the beginning of the year.

This is contrary to the promise of speed and affordability that has been publicized as one of the advantages that Bitcoin offers over the traditional ways of conducting financial transactions.

The aim of the shelved SegWit2x hard fork was to solve these challenges by increasing the amount of transaction data that each block can handle to two megabytes. Once this fork was cancelled, some investors grew weary and pulled out of Bitcoin and moved into Bitcoin Cash, a digital currency that resulted from a Bitcoin hard fork in August.

Bitcoin Cash recorded an all-time high of over $2,500 when Bitcoin was falling on November 12. Considering that the scaling limitations inherent in the Bitcoin system still lie unfixed, coupled with the social buzz around Bitcoin Cash, investors are likely to be worried about what the future holds for Bitcoin. Here are some thoughts from industry experts.

 

The Lack of Consensus Makes Bitcoin Vulnerable To Big Money Manipulation

According to DNX Community CEO Conradie Graeme, the failure to push the SegWit2x hard fork through is a setback for Bitcoin.

“Everyone is focused on scalability issues, but I believe there’s a bigger vulnerability issue about Bitcoin Think about it, as it stands, if you can afford to pay more in transaction fee, you can have your transactions confirmed quickly and there is no limit to the amount of Bitcoin you can buy or sell. And in reality, it’s only the big money investors/traders who can afford to pay more in transaction fees. So in theory, big money can pump and dump Bitcoin using the unfair advantage of being able to get their transactions confirmed quickly by paying more. They can dump before anyone else to take profits. This could mean that Bitcoin will remain highly volatile and high volatility could hinder it from ever becoming huge in the digital payment space.”

 

Bitcoin’s Value Will Decline

Maksim Balashevich, CEO and Founder of Santiment, believes that Bitcoin will drop in value.

There is always time to accumulate and then also time to reduce the risks. #bitcoin is risky now more than rewardy #cryptocurrency pic.twitter.com/FC2PnhX3bZ

— Santiment (@santimentfeed) November 7, 2017

Santiment believes Bitcoin’s value will drop, being redistributed among other ‘cash payments protocols’ such as Bitcoin Cash, Ethereum, Dash, Monero and Ripple. He adds:

“The Bitcoin Core [developers] (and Blockstream) should feel the real pressure and pain for what they’ve been denying for too long time. Once this pain is obvious and on all discussion boards, we might find the way for relief.”

 

There’s Room for Coexistence

Eric Jackson, CEO and Co-Founder, CapLinked, on the other hand, believes that Bitcoin’s widespread institutional support and adoption means that it will likely be here to stay, adding that its recent price rebound confirms that. That doesn’t mean Bitcoin Cash has no chance. Here are his words:

“I also believe that it is possible for Bitcoin Cash to coexist with Bitcoin. Bitcoin’s appreciation over the past half-decade has turned it into a store of value more comparable to gold than a currency. The very notion that Wall Street is developing derivatives of Bitcoin also suggests that it is on its way to becoming the world’s first digital commodity. Bitcoin has smaller block sizes and higher transaction fees compared to [Bitcoin Cash], making [Bitcoin Cash] mechanically better suited as a payment option than Bitcoin. Thus, assuming the rise of [Bitcoin Cash] is in part due to the need for a more flexible digital payment mechanism, I think there is room in the world for both.”

Clem Chambers, CEO of global stocks and shares website ADVFN also shares the view that several digital currencies can coexist:

“There is room in the market for both Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash, and for that matter many other coins including eccentric issues like Bitcoin Gold. In classic coinage, there are many denominations for the very same reason that there will be many different cryptocoin denominations. There are also many different currencies on top of denominations and for that matter an infinite set of designs. Cryptocurrency will follow a similar path.”

At press time, Bitcoin is trading at an all time high of just under $8300.
 

Author: Craig Adeyanju 11/21/2017 – 04:39

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur
David Ogden Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur

David

Roger Ver Declares Bitcoin Cash to Be True Bitcoin, Market Forces Bring More Attention

Roger Ver Declares Bitcoin Cash to Be True Bitcoin, Market Forces Bring More Attention

Roger Ver Declares Bitcoin Cash to Be True Bitcoin, Market Forces Bring More Attention

Earlier this year, divergent groups within the original Bitcoin community could not agree on a particular protocol to be implemented in scaling the platform. Those who sought bigger blocks therefore hard forked away from Bitcoin and created Bitcoin Cash (BCH).

Battle for supremacy

Since the creation of Bitcoin Cash in August 2017, there has been a tug on both sides of the divide and many key players and stakeholders have publicly taken sides based on reasons that are peculiar to them.

After the hard fork, Bitcoin Cash followed a general downward trend following its initial surge post-creation, while Bitcoin continued to smash the roof and set new record-highs repeatedly. Recently, Bitcoin retraced significantly over a short period of time – about $2,300 in just a few days. The difference between this dip and previous corrections was the corresponding surge in value of Bitcoin Cash which many people see as a direct rival to Bitcoin.

This Bitcoin Cash surge has caused formerly-neutral trading platforms like eToro to add Bitcoin Cash to their platform, with members paying a closer attention to developments around the cryptocurrency.

Which is the real Bitcoin?

Roger Ver is known as ‘Bitcoin Jesus’ due to the fervour with which he preached the Bitcoin gospel in its early days, but now appears as the main face behind Bitcoin Cash. He insists that his version of cryptocurrency, Bitcoin Cash, is the future of Bitcoin.

Ver tells Cointelegraph:

“Bitcoin Cash is the real Bitcoin and will have the bigger market cap, trade volume and user base in the future.”

Currently, Bitcoin Cash has a market cap that is just about one-fifth that of Bitcoin, a daily trading volume of over half and a circulating supply that is slightly higher when compared to Bitcoin. Following the recent price fluctuations, the crypto community is beginning to pay closer attention to Bitcoin Cash.

Challenges are essential for growth

The CEO of Netcoins, Michael Vogel, sees Bitcoin and cryptocurrency as the world's largest and most ambitious open source project. The closest parallel, according to Vogel, is the open source nature of Linux, which is notorious for the sparring that happens between the backers of different versions of the software. Vogel believes that the rivalry between different camps of the Bitcoin community is just a temporary roadblock that will lead to a more robust and resilient technology.

Vogel says:

“I do not think the challenges and in-fighting between various crypto camps are a bad thing. In another way we're effectively witnessing democracy in action. These are, in part, simply growing pains of a new technology, but by blasting through these roadblocks Bitcoin also becomes more robust and resilient. This is why, in my opinion, Bitcoin continued to rally to all-time highs after the Bitcoin Cash fork during the summer; Bitcoin users have realized that "Bitcoin is still Bitcoin" any time a new fork occurs.”

Deliberate market influence

Dana L. Coe, Director at BitLox, sees the current situation as a deliberate action of market makers who are taking advantage of the tender stage of the crypto ecosystem. Coe tells Cointelegraph that the activity between Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash is pure market volatility driven by rumors and speculation, which essentially drives all markets. However, he notes that in this case one can easily observe the market makers as they are quite obvious. This is especially so, as we have seen Bitcoin recover fully from the fall in price and subsequently break the $8,000 mark.

Coe says:

“The cryptosphere has come a long way, but let us not forget that compared to the economy as a whole, it is still small. Therefore, when actors from the larger national economies take an interest, crypto prices are most certainly to be subject to outsized influences. In the end, Bitcoin will stand or fall on the faith of it’s users and it’s users alone.”
 

Still more to come

Apparently, there is genuine attention being paid to the two most expensive cryptocurrencies at the moment. Most proponents have taken to social media to show support or criticize either Bitcoin or Bitcoin Cash, depending on which one they support.

Immediately after the hard fork, exchanges such as Bittrex, Kraken, ViaBitcoin and Bter all listed Bitcoin Cash on their platforms, after which its adoption seemed to have reached a plateau. But with more trading platforms listing Bitcoin Cash in the wake of its biggest push since creation, it is only normal to expect more developments around the community as time goes on.
 

Author: Iyke Aru

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur
David Ogden Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur

David

Morgan Stanley chief says bitcoin ‘doesn’t quite deserve the attention it’s getting’

Morgan Stanley chief says bitcoin 'doesn't quite deserve the attention it's getting'

Morgan Stanley chief says bitcoin 'doesn't quite deserve the attention it's getting'

  • Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO James Gorman said bitcoin is getting more attention than it might deserve

  • He said the cryptocurrency is the "definition" of a speculative investment, and anyone thinking it might be stable is "deluding themselves"

  • But Gorman acknowledged that bitcoin's growing acceptance and usability meant it was not going away overnight

Bitcoin is getting more attention than it deserves, but the phenomenon is not going away overnight, according to Morgan Stanley Chairman and CEO James Gorman.

Speaking with CNBC on Thursday, Gorman said bitcoin isn't even close to a safe investment, and would-be cryptocurrency owners shouldn't expect otherwise.

"Something that goes up 700 percent in a year — it's by definition speculative," he said. "So anybody who thinks they're buying something that it's a stable investment is deluding themselves."

"It might go up another 700 percent, but it could easily not," Gorman added.

Gorman's stance on bitcoin appeared slightly less negative than some of his peers on Wall Street. For example, JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon predicted if "you're stupid enough to buy [bitcoin], you'll pay the price for it one day." Meanwhile, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink called the cryptocurrency "an index of money laundering."

The criticism from financial luminaries has done little to deter bitcoin's ascent. On Thursday morning, the cryptocurrency traded at $7,141.03, according to Coindesk data. It had begun the year at only about $1,000 per token.

Gorman added that bitcoin is "punching above its weight" and the cryptocurrency "doesn't quite deserve the attention it's getting."

Previously, the Morgan Stanley CEO described cryptocurrencies as "more than just a fad."

He explained to CNBC that bitcoin's growing acceptance and usability meant it was "not going away overnight."

But there are issues and uncertainties surrounding the cryptocurrency.

"Is it a needed new form of stored value? I'm not so sure," he said, adding it was also unclear if the regulators and central banks would watch bitcoin's growth from afar or become involved.

Still, the bank chief grappled with digital money's reputation for facilitating criminality: "Does it support people who want to use currencies on anonymous basis for wrong purposes? Absolutely," Gorman said.

Proponents of bitcoin predict the cryptocurrency will continue breaking records amid its growing acceptance among users to carry out financial transactions. One analyst even predicted bitcoin could top Apple's market cap in five years.

 

Author Saheli Roy Choudhury
Reporter, CNBC.com

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur
David Ogden Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur

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Bitcoin Gold Sets Sunday Date for Cryptocurrency Release

Bitcoin Gold Sets Sunday Date for Cryptocurrency Release

Bitcoin Gold Sets Sunday Date for Cryptocurrency Release

Bitcoin gold is set to go live this weekend.

In a new blog post, the developers behind the fork of the bitcoin blockchain said that they would release a formal software client for download at 7:00 PM UTC on Nov. 12. Originally set for a public launch on Nov. 1, the project is backed by LightningASIC, a seller of mining hardware based in Hong Kong, as well as a community of relatively unknown developers.

As reported by CoinDesk, the idea behind bitcoin gold is to keep most properties of the protocol, but restrict the use of specialized chips for mining, or the process by which new transactions are added to a blockchain (while also creating new tokens as a reward).

It's also the latest example of a "airdropped" cryptocurrency that will distribute new coins to anyone who owned bitcoin at the time of the split, or up until the date the ledger of transactions started to differ.

Yet in a move criticized by some observers, the team behind bitcoin gold has been mining blocks in insolation since the new network was formally created last month, with a certain amount of coins being set aside to support development.

In comments, the team behind the effort sought to send a signal of confidence to the market, perhaps owing to concerns circulating around the effort.

"We are extremely grateful for the community around the world who have been contributing hash power to our testnets; besides patiently testing their own mining process, they allow exchanges, pools, wallet developers, and all other service operators to implement and test their support of BTG so that the bitcoin gold community can have a full suite of services at launch time," the project's backers said in a statement.

In the days ahead, exchanges will no doubt be watching the launch. Soon after its August release, bitcoin cash, another cryptocurrency that forked the bitcoin network, amassed a nearly $4 billion market value.

Exchanges and traders will no doubt be watching to see if history repeats.

Author: Stan Higgins Nov 9, 2017 at 19:35 UTC

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur
David Ogden Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur

David

Relief and Disbelief – Bitcoin Reacts to Sudden ‘2x’ Suspension

Relief and Disbelief - Bitcoin Reacts to Sudden '2x' Suspension

Relief and Disbelief – Bitcoin Reacts to Sudden '2x' Suspension

The tweets came fast and furious, almost quicker than the articulation.

After months of anger and debate, a group of businesses and mining firms that use bitcoin’s software to provide services suddenly shuttered an attempt at changing its rules. Scheduled to be introduced in mid-November, the Segwit2x software had emerged as a controversial bogeyman, a cloud of uncertainty over bitcoin’s future, that quickly gave way.

Among those who had for months spoken out against the proposal, and what they perceived as a broken understanding of how protocol development should proceed, euphoria was evident.

"Segwit2x hardfork has been called off! Common sense prevails," exclaimed litecoin creator Charlie Lee. “Put a fork in it, it’s done,” tweeted author Andreas Antonopoulos.

Developer Akin Fernandez, one of a legion of bloggers who have stood staunchly against the proposal, tweeted succinctly:

“Bitcoin wins.”

Indeed, the strongest voices in the initial reaction were those who had joined a long-simmering protest movement called "NO2X," which accumulated the support of dozens of companies and users, who displayed their opposition by adding a prefix to their social media names.

The social media behavior, launched in the wake of Segwit2x’s announcement in May, did much to highlight the differing perspectives of the proposal.

An open-source software that requires a diversity of stakeholders to agree to its rules to operate – bitcoin’s major companies, developers and mining pools have each taken a different view of development and how decisions about updates should be made.

Forged in an invite-only meeting, criticisms of Segwit2x came largely from developers, many of whom didn’t necessarily object to the idea larger blocks were needed, but a culture that had sprung up around startups that largely lacked a frame of reference for how network changes had been made, or even the various ways in which changes could be made.

As such, the news could be read as a culmination of a debate that began in 2015, when former bitcoin maintainer Gavin Andresen sought to galvanize interest in a block size change. Since then, several attempts have been made to tweak this aspect of the software.

However, despite its stakeholder support, Segwit2x now joins bitcoin classic, bitcoin unlimited and bitcoin-xt as proposed softwares to fail to gain adoption based on the idea.
 

Unexpected relief

That said, even many of Segwit2x's advocates were relieved the agreement was suspended.

"I am glad it is over," said Guy Corem, a former miner who signed the original Segwit2x agreement in May. "It was the right call."
 

Others hinted at the hostility their public support had brought, and the tactics used by supporters of the "NO2X" segment. Members of the group were often criticized for disparaging remarks and attacks made against Segwit2x supporters.

"I guess I can now pay more attention to more fruitful technical pursuits than following the news and fighting trolls online," said Segwit2x developer Jean-Pierre Rupp.

The acrimonious debate has been almost non-stop on social media channels such as Reddit and Twitter, at the peak leading to alleged death threats.

Due in part to this environment, there was a sense the Segwit2x proposal was not as welcomed by the community as participants had originally expected.

"We're relieved. The goal of the NYA was to bring the community together and keep the majority of the users on the same chain for at least a little while longer," Peter Smith, CEO of cryptocurrency software provider Blockchain, wrote in a blog post.

Others argued much the same – that a hard fork to increase the block size makes sense, but only if the agreement achieves support from all corners of the ecosystem.

"We are big fans of increasing the block size, as our customer really get impacted by the fees, but we want to see it done in a responsible way that brings the entire community together, and takes into account more voices," said Coins.ph founder and CEO Ron Hose.
 

New solutions

Still, there's a strong sense that bitcoin still needs to scale, somehow, in the future, as it seeks to accommodate new users.

“We'll either bring bigger blocks to people [with bitcoin], or we'll bring the people to bigger blocks [on bitcoin cash],” developer Peter Rizun told CoinDesk.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the news that a block size increase would not be pursued was highly praised by supporters of the Lightning Network, a proposed off-chain microtransaction network that seeks to move bitcoin transactions off the blockchain itself.

"Now that 2x is officially donezo, excited to get back to work building long term solutions like Lightning!" Lightning CEO Elizabeth Stark tweeted.

However, while the news today could position Lightning as a likely solution, the big advances that appear needed to get the network off the ground are now likely to come under scrutiny.

On display at Scaling Bitcoin, a two-day technical conference at Stanford University this weekend, were the challenges yet to be solved with the technology. This includes ensuring privacy in transactions and better understanding the economics of their interactions.

As noted by Hebrew University's Aviv Zohar, presenting new work on the subject, larger blocks may ultimately be needed to optimize the network.

In this way, speculation is already building that Lightning will not be enough, or that it will take too long to take off. As such, some think that businesses will embrace alternative protocols such as bitcoin cash, an alternative bitcoin with a larger block size, or litecoin, founded in 2012 as a vehicle for faster merchant payments.

"We may start seeing more and more businesses move to bitcoin cash for on-chain transactions, due to the high cost of transacting on bitcoin, which is what Segwi2x was attempting to solve," Civic CEO and co-founder Vinny Lingham told CoinDesk.

Jake Smith, Bitcoin.com’s business developer and a long-time supporter of on-chain scaling, said he sold his bitcoin immediately after the news hit. His comments, while brief, showcase how supporters drawn to bitcoin’s possibilities as a peer-to-peer cash have been put off by the news.

"Bitcoin just signed it’s own death warrant, as far as I’m concerned," Smith added.

Likewise, OpenBazaar lead developer Chris Pacia, whose company moved to distance itself from the proposal last week, said more companies would likely turn to other options.

"[Segwit2x] didn't really make sense after the bitcoin cash fork,” he said.
 

Not the last

But while there is temporary relief, there is also new thinking about bitcoin's future.

The key thing that sets bitcoin apart, to many, is that it's a decentralized, digital way to move value that no one entity controls. And to some, Segwit2x’s failure simply showcase’s the strength of the technology in defending against influences that could undermine this.

Bitcoin developer Bashco pointed to the long line of attempts to increase the block size or undermine developers via such proposals, implying there will be others down the line.

"They will lick their wounds and regroup," the developer told CoinDesk.

This view speaks to the idea Segwit2x was best considered as an attempted "takeover" of bitcoin, in that developers behind it wanted to rewrite the cryptocurrency's rules without getting full agreement from the community.

A controversial move was also the decision by Segwit2x developers to remove code that constituted what has been described as “replay protection,” meaning the fork could have been executed in such a way that user funds could have been at risk if two chains emerged.

Still, some used the news to call for changes to the culture and community, especially those that keep in mind how governments or authorities could use similar methods to corrupt or harm the protocol in the years to come.

"We must continue with the research into forks and chain splits and building tools and defenses because it will almost certainly be tried again," Bitcoin Core contributor Eric Lombrozo told CoinDesk.

Bitcoin developer Matt Corallo, who had publicly feuded with high-profile members of the Segwit2x group, voiced a similar opinion that sought to appeal to unity.

"Let's take Segwit2x's failure as a learning experience – bitcoin's community is strong, and needs to broadly support any changes to bitcoin's consensus rules," he tweeted.

Others were more grandiose, hinting at the expansive narrative that has seemed to shroud what some outside the industry may see as a benign numerical change.

Pseudonymous bitcoin blogger WhalePanda tweeted:

"We won this battle … but they will keep coming to destroy bitcoin. We will not forget.”

 

Authors: Pete Rizzo & Alyssa Hertig Nov 8, 2017 at 23:05 UTC

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur
David Ogden Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur

David

Bitcoin’s Bogeyman Cometh – Why Segwit2x Is a 51% Attack

Bitcoin's Bogeyman Cometh - Why Segwit2x Is a 51% Attack

Bitcoin's Bogeyman Cometh – Why Segwit2x Is a 51% Attack

In bitcoin's Necronomicon of possible attacks and weaknesses, one reigns supreme – the 51% attack.

If there is a fear that has played on people's minds as the end-of-days scenario for bitcoin, it is this. Attackers who hold more than 50% of hashing power could stop transactions from confirming and even reverse some transactions. They could undermine the whole project.

Bitcoin's design and its system of economic incentives has been set up specifically to combat the destructive potential of a 51% attack. And it has worked. The 51% attack has remained a hypothetical bogeyman. Until now.

By all indication, a coordinated 51% attack will begin on, or around, Nov. 16. That's when a consortium of miners representing substantially more than 50% of the network's hashing power and an allied group of blockchain startups will seek to increase the block size.

This will require a hard fork, which while controversial, is a legitimate desire. In itself, this is not an attack.

Where it goes wrong

However, the consortium's effort has evolved beyond a simple fork. It is now being developed not simply as an effort to fork the chain, but to do so in such a way as to deliberately prevent the continued existence of the status quo chain.

Specifically, the developers involved have declined to introduce replay protection.

The 2x fork will create a situation where transactions performed on one fork, can be "replayed" on the second fork. In effect, users will have funds on both blockchains, but any transaction they perform on one blockchain could lead to a loss of funds on the other blockchain.

Replay protection is a fairly easy-to-implement method to protect users from this risk. Network attacks are those actions taken with the intention of disrupting the protocol’s normal functioning. The 2x change, bereft of replay protection, causes massive disruption. This is by design.

Without replay protection in place, a minority chain becomes less likely to survive.

Question of motives

The preferred outcome for the consortium is that the status quo chain ceases to exist, that its transactions fail to confirm.

This is the literal definition of a 51% attack. If it sounds a bit bizarre to call the consortium's effort an attack, that's because it is. The consortium comprises many real supporters of bitcoin, acting in what they believe is good faith. They don't mean to be attacking bitcoin.

However, without replay protection their efforts are like an autoimmune disease, having become overzealous and perverted.

So, bitcoin is finally coming to come face-to-face with the mother of all attacks. This is a watershed moment. The very worst outcomes are bad indeed.

Transactions could grind to a halt, faith in the system could be lost, bitcoin and by extension, the entire blockchain world could prove to be far more vulnerable to attack than we hoped.
 

We shall overcome

However, there is also another possible, even more likely, outcome.

Bitcoin could prove resilient to the consortium's attack and emerge battered but unbroken. In so doing, bitcoin will have proven itself resilient to even its greatest foe.

It is hard to overstate how important this will be to bitcoin's perceived reliability. Bitcoin has always been haunted by the risk that its rules might come to be dictated by special interest groups or hostile, state-sponsored parties.

This risk is never going completely away, but instead of the risk being a hypothetical bogeyman, it will become a much more prosaic thing: a successfully managed risk.

The 51% attack is bitcoin's boss level. I don’t think it's an exaggeration to say that we are now at the end of the beginning. If we successfully overcome this coming challenge, bitcoin will no longer be just an experiment, it will be a fact.

But don't expect less drama — we are now entering bitcoin's adolescence.

HODL on tight, things will get hairy.

 

Author: Edan Yago Nov 8, 2017 at 02:30 UTC

 

Posted by Daving Ogden Entrepreneur
David Ogden Cryptocurrency Entrepreneur

Could be an interesting couple of weeks

David