Bitcoin Breakout – Price Action Analysis Hints at Possible Pullback

The bitcoin price [BTC to US dollar exchange rate] fell to a two-week low of $3,900 on Tuesday, a market movement that represented the biggest decline for the asset since July.

Triggered by the sudden news from China that the country’s financial regulators would ban initial coin offerings, the decline has also called into question just how big the appetite is for a higher bitcoin price given its 700% year-over-year gains.

However, traders appear to be bullish on the idea it can rise back above $5,000, the all-time high it set last Friday. In fact, traders who missed the rally appear to be utilizing the dip to board the bitcoin freight train – over the last 48 hours, the digital currency has recovered more than 50% of the losses it suffered during the four day period from September 2–5.

At press time, the BTC traded at $4,620, according to the CoinDesk Bitcoin Price Index. Week-on-week, bitcoin is down 2.69%. On a monthly basis, the cryptocurrency is up 34.8%.

Still, while the sharp rally from the weekly low of $3,900 has triggered speculation bitcoin is aiming for the fresh record highs, technical studies say the recovery lacks substance.

Money Flow Index [MFI] does not support further gains

The Money Flow Index (MFI) is an oscillator that uses both price and volume to measure buying and selling pressure. (MFI indicates rising or falling prices always through its own rise or fall.) If the MFI rises above the centre line [50], this is regarded as a buy signal.

Similarly, an intersection going down is regarded as a sell signal.

Daily chart

The MFI index is pointing downwards and shows no signs of life despite the sharp recovery from the weekly low of $3,900.

The weakness in the MFI could be an indication that the technical recovery lacks substance, i.e. lacks buying pressure and could have been fuelled by unwinding [profit taking] on the shorts.

4-Hour chart

The MFI is close to overbought levels. Typically, an MFI above 80 is considered overbought and MFI below 20 is considered oversold. These levels are often used to identify unsustainable price extremes.

Overbought levels alone are not enough to turn bearish. However, in BTC’s case, the overbought MFI on the 4-hour chart could be read as a signal that the recovery from the low of $3,900 has ended. This is because, the daily MFI is bearish as discussed above.

Furthermore, the decline from the record high of $5,000 was triggered by a bearish price-RSI divergence. A bearish price RSI divergence is formed when prices form higher highs while the oscillator – in this case an RSI – forms significantly lower highs.)

As such, bitcoin’s outlook remains bearish unless we break above $5,000 as such a move would signal the bearish price RSI divergence is no longer valid.

View

Daily chart

Bullish factors

• The rising trend line is intact and is likely to offer support at $4,265

Bearish factors

• As discussed above, the MFI is not in favor of further gains in bitcoin
• Bearish price-RSI divergence
• Potential head and shoulders pattern

BTC is more likely to break below $4,265, in which case a lower highs pattern would be confirmed. An uptrend, which is a series of higher highs and higher lows, reverses into a downtrend by changing into a series of lower highs and lower lows.

Lower lows would be confirmed if prices break below the recent low of $4,900.

Also note that a lower highs would increase the odds of the prices forming a head and shoulders [H&S] bearish reversal pattern. The Head and shoulders is a reversal pattern that, when formed, signals the security [in this case bitcoin] is likely to move against the previous trend.

The H&S neckline [line drawn from the left shoulder bottom and right shoulder bottom] support is seen at $3980 levels. A break below the neckline level confirms bullish-to-bearish trend reversal.

Bullish scenario

A break above $4,640 could result in a rally towards $5000, although caution is advised as only a move above $5,000 would make the bearish price-RSI divergence invalid and shall revive the rally set in motion from the July low of $1,826.

Disclaimer: This article should not be taken as, and is not intended to provide, investment advice. Please conduct your own thorough research before investing in any cryptocurrency.

Sep 7, 2017 at 14:20 UTC by Omkar Godbole

 

Posted By David Ogden Entrepreneur

David

What you need to know about the latest Bitcoin boom

 

You may have noticed reports about Bitcoin’s value recently – its price is headed into the stratosphere.

The crypto-currency’s recent meteoric price rise over the summer has seen one Bitcoin go from being worth $1,500 in early May to more than $5,000 over the weekend, before dropping to $4,654 at the time of publication.

And that has got all kinds of people interested – people like Andrew Beckwith, a DJ who goes by the name Supersede. “I play restaurants, lounges, nightclubs, corporate events,” he says.

But he also invests. Beckwith has just taken his first step into the world of crypto-currencies, having converted $100 into Bitcoin.

“I don’t know how far it’s going to grow,” he explains, “but if something is growing at hundreds of per cent, that’s a pretty valuable return.”

Bitcoin is notorious for its volatility, but the recent peaks are unprecedented. In late 2013 its value jumped from around $100 to $1,000 – a bigger percentage increase – but it is worth more than four times that today.

“Recently there’s been a lot more talk in the media and others have been investing,” explains Kiran Varughese, another amateur investor, who works for an elevator company in Dubai.

The notoriously volatile crypto-currency has been making headlines with its skyrocketing value, but some believe it’s a bubble driven by speculation (Credit: Getty Images)

A friend’s experiments with Bitcoin piqued his curiosity so he clubbed together with another pal to invest $1,000 in August. If they lose it, he says they won’t be too worried – the potential for a big return within the next few years is too tantalising for Varughese to resist.

But are investors like Varughese and Beckwith taking too much of a risk by buying into Bitcoin, and other crypto-currencies like Ethereum, Litecoin or Dash? Is there something about these digital currencies that underpins their soaring prices or are they simply subject to whims in the market that can make fortunes but also devastate them?

While the market capitalisation of all crypto-currencies now stands at $150 billion, they still occupy a strange space in the world of finance.

“Every year Bitcoin continues to exist is something to take note of,” says Garrick Hileman, a research fellow at the Cambridge Centre for Alternative Finance at the University of Cambridge. “It’s a significant achievement for Bitcoin to have survived the many setbacks and challenges that it has faced.”

One of these challenges occurred recently when Bitcoin split in two. It happened after the Bitcoin community became divided over how to allow more transactions to be processed with the currency. Because Bitcoin has no over-arching authority that controls it, any decision to alter the system that underpins it needed to gather enough support from Bitcoin users to go ahead. The system itself is called the blockchain – a huge digital ledger that records every single Bitcoin transaction in history.

Mining Bitcoin takes time and computer processing power, so it’s often done in massive farms such as this converted warehouse in Moscow, Russia (Credit: Getty Images)

As computers on the Bitcoin network verify transactions, “blocks” of data are added to the ledger, storing this information. Computers that do this work receive a small sum of bitcoins as a reward – this is the process known as mining. Every single computer on the network has a copy of the blockchain and their copy of it is constantly updated.

But until recently, Bitcoin blocks were limited in size to a megabyte every 10 minutes, meaning that the rate at which the blockchain could grow was capped. In early August, a new version of the crypto-currency – Bitcoin Cash – was mined for the first time. Its blocks can be up to eight megabytes in size.

Some believe the smooth transition through this “fork” without any technical disasters has contributed to renewed confidence in Bitcoin, in turn helping to pump the price up. One “coin” of Bitcoin Cash is worth less, around $630 today, but that’s up $200 since its inception a month ago.

Another fork to upgrade the block size further is expected in November and if successful, it might have a similar impact on Bitcoin’s buoyant price.

But “currencies” like Bitcoin aren’t really playing the role of a traditional currency at the moment, says Vili Lehdonvirta, an economic sociologist at the Oxford Internet Institute, which is part of the University of Oxford.

“When I called up a restaurant in Helsinki earlier this year to ask if they accept Bitcoin, the response was that they tried it a few years ago, nobody ever used it, and thus they no longer accept it,” he explains.

Most retailers don’t accept the crypto-currency (Credit: Getty Images)

BBC Capital contacted 10 businesses in London that have advertised an ability to accept Bitcoin in the past. Four of them said they had stopped accepting and two that did accept them reported hardly ever processing such payments.

Instead, it appears many people are simply speculating on Bitcoin – investing in what is a relatively high-risk asset in the hope of a short-term gain in profit. But lucrative outcomes are by no means guaranteed – and many still think that Bitcoin is just a bubble.

In the short-term there may be various reasons why people are buying in while the price is buoyant. Some may like investing in a currency unconnected to nation states, suggests Hileman. It could be seen as good insulation against uncertain political developments that can cause traditional currencies to plummet dramatically – as happened to the British pound in the aftermath of the Brexit vote. Volatile international disputes, such as those involving North Korea, could be driving people to put their money elsewhere.

The pound dropped sharply after Brexit – since Bitcoin is not tied to any one nation-state, it’s less affected by large political events (Credit: Getty Images)

“If you’re in South Korea and you’re concerned about a geopolitical event, do you trade in the US dollar?” asks Hileman. “Maybe that’s not a great idea because the US will be involved, as will China and Japan, so it’s not surprising to see people look for alternative currencies,” he says.

Applied cryptography consultant and Bitcoin-watcher Peter Todd says some are also attracted by Bitcoin’s independence for broader political reasons, too.

In an uncertain world, people’s financial freedom is sometimes limited by their governments. Take India, which recently tried to curb public investments in gold as this was harming the nation’s economy. Bitcoin is a global entity, no one government can fiddle with it – although there are countries where trading it is illegal.

Still, crypto-currencies remain associated with plenty of risks that go beyond their volatility. Many people store their bitcoins in online exchanges and should these be hacked or go bust, which has happened more than once, then the money is often lost forever.

With all the technical ups and downs of crypto-currencies – their changes and potential to split into new currencies for example – there is also a significant degree of complexity that can leave less informed investors bewildered.

MtGox, a Bitcoin exchange based in Tokyo, collapsed after losing nearly $500m in Bitcoin to what it says was a hack attack (Credit: Getty Images)

A new area of excitement, known as initial coin offerings (ICOs), are also beginning to worry some experts. ICOs allow owners of crypto-currencies to invest in fledgling companies, with many using Ethereum as their digital coin of choice. However, ICOs have already been associated with a number of scams and hacks, and China just banned them, calling ICOs 'illegal fundraising'.

“I think the main thing we’re seeing in ICOs is straight-up fraud,” says Todd. He is concerned about efforts by regulators to clamp down on this because such an approach could backfire and encourage scammers to become more sophisticated.

“It’s when things look legit that they get dangerous,” he says, pointing out that a few years ago Bitcoin and other digital tokens had more of a “Wild West” feel to them, which perhaps meant people were less likely to be duped since scams were crude and easy to spot. As more and more investors get involved in crypto-currencies, scams can get slicker and the natural wariness that can keep people cautious may also diminish.

Bitcoin and other crypto-currencies are gradually cementing their stated position – providing a radical new alternative to the investment options that existed before them. But there is no certainty as to how this massive experiment will play out. Though when did that ever stop hopeful investors taking a punt?

 

By Chris Baraniuk
7 September 2017

This story was produced under the BBC's guidelines for financial journalism. A full version of those guidelines can be found at bbc.co.uk/guidelines.

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur

David

Bitcoin Price Nears $5,000; YTD Growth Exceeds 400%

2017 has been a breakout year for bitcoin and the cryptocurrency ecosystem as a whole. Now, as the bitcoin price approaches $5,000, it’s an excellent time to look back at the trials and triumphs that have contributed to this 400% YTD rally.

Global Adoption & the Road to $5,000

Bitcoin rang in the new year by crossing $1,000 for the first time since the 2013 melt-up, and the Financial Times promptly called it a pyramid scheme that would soon collapse to zero. The bitcoin price held at this level for the next three months, leading critics like Gizmodo writer Michael Nunez to complain that it “refuses to just die already.”

Of course, bitcoin obituaries like these ignored bitcoin’s increasing global expansion. There was once a time when bitcoin risked becoming a Western phenomenon, excluding the majority of the world’s population. Today, that could not be further from the truth. Bitcoin adoption has exploded in Asia, and the highest-volume cryptocurrency exchange is located in South Korea. Bitcoin has also made inroads into emerging markets such as Africa and India.

This year has also seen Japan embrace bitcoin more rapidly than perhaps any other nation. Toward the beginning of the year, Japan terminated its crippling 8% bitcoin consumption tax, and before long major retailers were accepting bitcoin payments. By the end of the year, analysts predict that as many as 300,000 Japanese businesses will accept bitcoin.

By late April, the crypto market advance had begun to pick up steam, leading to a market cap explosion in May and June. On May 20, the bitcoin price broke through $2,000. Less than a month later, it crossed $3,000 on several exchanges for the first time.

YTD Bitcoin Price Chart from CoinMarketCap

Despite this bull run, bitcoin almost lost its status as the largest cryptocurrency by market cap. About this time, ethereum came within $10 billion of bitcoin’s market cap, making it seem inevitable that there would be a “Flippening” between the two cryptocurrencies. MarketWatch columnist Brett Arends, meanwhile, wrote that both cryptocurrencies were “complete garbage.” However, the Flippening never came. The markets took a bearish turn following the June 26 “Monday Massacre,” and bitcoin consolidated its position as the dominant cryptocurrency.

Eventually, the markets recovered. After falling as low as $1,900 during mid-July, the bitcoin price reversed course toward the end of the month, initiating the record rally that has carried bitcoin to the brink of $5,000.
 

Bitcoin Overcomes UAHF and PBoC Squeeze

The most astonishing aspect of the bitcoin price’s 2017 performance is not its 400% climb, but rather the trials it overcame to get there. Aside from the incessant claims by mainstream media analysts that bitcoin is a bubble, bitcoin faced adverse events that threatened its future. One of these was increasing regulation. Bitcoin has faced regulation since shortly after its inception, but its 2017 bull run has intensified government interest in cryptocurrency. As early as January, the People’s Bank of China (PBoc)–China’s central bank–began putting a regulatory squeeze on bitcoin exchanges in response to “abnormal [bitcoin] price fluctuations.” Exchanges shut their doors as the PBoC began conducting on-site inspections. However, the PBoC ultimately allowed Chinese bitcoin exchanges to continue their operations, albeit with strict supervision.

More recently, bitcoin survived the contentious bitcoin cash hard fork that split the bitcoin network into two different blockchains. Rather than lead the bitcoin price into decline, the hard fork actually appeared to build confidence in bitcoin’s ability to survive a serious community divide, and bitcoin soared more than 75% in the month that followed.

Scaling With SegWit

The bitcoin cash hard fork was caused by the debate about the best way to scale the bitcoin network. Bitcoin cash proponents, claiming to follow Satoshi’s vision, believed that raising the block size was the best way to ensure bitcoin remained a viable P2P transaction vehicle rather than just a settlement layer. Bitcoin Core, however, adopted Segregated Witness (SegWit), a scaling and transaction malleability fix that also facilitates the creation of Lightning Networks. SegWit was activated earlier this month, which should soon cause bitcoin transaction fees–which reached above $8 this month–to finally decrease to more acceptable levels.

SegWit2x and the Road Ahead

Of course, SegWit activation did not put the scaling debate to rest. Earlier this year, a group of prominent bitcoin companies and personalities signed the New York Agreement (NYA), which proposed a hard fork to the bitcoin protocol. SegWit2x, as the proposal is known, called for a block size increase in addition to SegWit activation. The proposal received near-universal support from miners, but Bitcoin Core developers have vociferously opposed it. Relations between Core and SegWit2x supporters have worsened over the intervening months, and several companies have reversed their NYA support. Despite Core opposition, SegWit2x proponents say they will proceed with the hard fork in November, creating a potentially-chaotic situation in which two blockchains will fight to be the “real bitcoin”.

Nevertheless, investors remain bullish on bitcoin, and the bitcoin price’s triumphant march toward $5,000 continue

 

Author: Josiah Wilmoth on 01/09/2017

 

Posted by David Ogden Entrepreneur

David