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Changing expectations of the Fed’s forward guidance pressure gold lower

Changing expectations of the Fed's forward guidance pressure gold lower

The Federal Reserve first spoke about its forward guidance at last year’s Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Specifically, it was Chairman Powell’s keynote speech that delivered the blow to the American public about its intent to raise rates and keep those elevated rates in place until the Fed hits its 2% inflation target.

After the December FOMC meeting the Federal Reserve released its economic projections for 2023 – 2025 including the most recent dot plot. The dot plot is the Fed’s mechanism for predicting future rates by calling on 17 Fed officials to vote on future monetary policy. In the case of the December dot plot, it revealed an overwhelming consensus that the Fed would raise rates to a target of just over 5%, and keep rates elevated for the entire calendar year of 2023.

Although the Federal Reserve has maintained its policy, it was market participants' expectations that have recently shifted from disbelief to an acceptance that the Fed will not likely back off its extremely hawkish monetary policy. This includes continued rate hikes and maintaining those elevated rates throughout the year.

During February market sentiment regarding the forward guidance of the Federal Reserve shifted from uncertainty to acceptance. That resulted in gold trading under pressure for the last three consecutive weeks. On the first full trading day of the week (due to shortened trading hours yesterday on Presidents’ Day) gold is once again trading under pressure. As of 3:25 PM EST, the most active April futures contract is down $5.30 or 0.29% and fixed at $1844.80.

While it is true that inflation has been declining since the Federal Reserve began raising rates in March of last year, recent data suggests that inflation is not diminishing as quickly as the Federal Reserve had hoped. The jobs report for January coming in well over the forecast of 188,000 versus 517,000 combined with the most recent inflation reports suggests that inflation remains elevated and persistent in certain sectors.

The most recent data has cemented the idea that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish monetary policy with a real possibility of two more rate hikes and most importantly maintain the new elevated rates throughout 2023.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold, silver slightly up in quieter trading

Gold, silver slightly up in quieter trading

Gold and silver prices are mildly higher in midday U.S. trading Wednesday. The precious metals markets are getting a very modest boost from slightly friendly outside markets on this day that include a slightly lower U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil prices. However, gains in both metals were limited by rising U.S. Treasury yields today. April gold was last up $3.10 at $1,887.80 and March silver was up $0.183 at $22.35.

The gold and silver market bulls have lost steam the past week and are working to stabilize prices, which they can correctly argue has occurred at mid-week. Still, both metals markets remain very wobbly.

The marketplace on Tuesday afternoon saw Fed Chairman Powell at a Washington, D.C. economic club meeting reiterate that U.S. inflation has started to come down but has a long way to drop to meet the Fed's inflation objectives. Powell was pressed on last Friday's strong jobs report possibly changing Fed policy to more hawkish, but Powell brushed that notion off, at first. However, at the end of his remarks he said more strong U.S. economic data could force the Fed to raise rates more than it expects at present. Stock and financial markets gyrated during and right after his comments but at the end of the day Tuesday, Powell's remarks were deemed as not surprising and did not have a major, lasting impact on markets.

 Gold price to hold the line at $1,800 but investors will have to weigh the costs as real rates remain positive – CIBC

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are lower at midday, which is also providing a bit of underlying support for the safe-haven metals.

 

The key outside markets see the U.S. dollar index just slightly weaker. The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note is presently fetching 3.681%. Meantime, Nymex crude oil futures prices are up just a bit and trading around $77.50 a barrel.

Technically, April gold futures prices hit a four-week low Monday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bear flag pattern has now formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the February high of $1,975.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,850.00. First resistance is seen at $1,900.00 and then at $1,915.50. First support is seen at this week's low of $1,873.20 and then at $1,850.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

March silver futures prices hit a two-month low Tuesday. The silver bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Prices have seen a bearish downside "breakout" from a sideways trading range at higher levels. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $23.50. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $21.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $22.635 and then at $23.00. Next support is seen at this week's low of $22.065 and then at $22.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

March N.Y. copper closed down 500 points at 403.00 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The copper bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the January high of 435.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 380.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 411.65 cents and then at 420.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 399.30 cents and then at 390.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5. By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco New

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David