Hold gold or drop gold?

Hold gold or drop gold?

Is bitcoin really hurting gold? This question is on everyone’s mind as bitcoin is up 85% and gold is down 10% since the start of the year. And this debate is not dying out anytime soon, at least according to our top three stories from this week.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that ‘crypto is a substitute for gold, not the U.S. dollar’. This kind of statement is pretty unprecedented coming from the Fed Chair, who also called bitcoin too volatile to be a global currency.

Powell stated: “Bitcoin is a speculative asset that is essentially a substitute for gold rather than the dollar.”

CNBC’s Jim Cramer is now advising to have: 5% in gold and 5% in bitcoin. After telling investors to keep 10% of their portfolio in gold for almost four decades, Cramer has had a change of heart.

He said: “Gold let me down … If [investors] listen to me, they will drop half their gold. I've been saying 10% gold since 1983. And now, I say 5% in gold, 5% in bitcoin."

Our top story of the week is the CPM’s annual Gold Yearbook. A quick summary is that the pandemic has 'changed the world' and gold prices will reap the benefits.

The group stressed that while the pandemic will eventually end, it has accelerated some of the main drivers for gold.

CPM Group says governments will struggle to reverse their fiscal support. And gold’s triggers will be debt, deficit, and ultra-loose monetary policies.
 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

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Gold and silver trade flat leading into the EU open

Gold and silver trade flat leading into the EU open

Gold and silver are trading flat this morning leading into the EU open. Gold is trading at $1727/oz while silver has moved near the psychological $25/oz area.

Risk sentiment overnight was mostly weak following the weak handover from the US. The Nikkei 225 (-2.04%) and Shanghai Composite (-1.30%) moved lower while the ASX closed 0.50% in the black.

In FX markets, it was the dollar that outperformed overnight. The weakest major currency was the pound which fell over half a percent. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper (0.80%) and spot WTI (1.95%) both trade higher.

Looking at some of the news stories, BOJ's Kuroda said the central bank is to continue with powerful monetary easing persistently.

There was a fall in aluminium prices overnight with some analysts citing the fact that China is considering a sale of around half a million tons of aluminium from state reserves as the reason for the move.

UK medical firm AstraZeneca says it will release up-to-date results from the final stage trial of its vaccine, responding to criticism from a U.S. science agency.

On the data front, Japan (Jibun Bank) Markit preliminary manufacturing PMIs for March came in at 52.0 (prior 51.4), Australia preliminary March Markit PMIs manufacturing it 57.0 vs the prior reading of 56.6 and services printed at 56.2 vs the prior 54.1.

Elsewhere in the Asia Pac area, the Australian Treasury Secretary said he expects a spike in long term unemployment following the COVID-19 pandemic.

On the central bank front, BoC Gravelle said he sees a smoother recovery and Fed's Bullard says he sees the target rate staying near zero through 2023. Fed's Bullard looking for 6.5% GDP growth, unemployment down to 4.5% this year and lastly, Fed's Brainard says she expects to see transitory increases in inflation.

US President Biden says the US will have 600m doses of vaccine by the end of May. Sticking with the US President Biden's first fiscal 2022 proposals will be released on Friday and a full budget is expected in Spring.

On the geopolitical front, South Korean military officials confirmed that North Korea fired 2 missiles off its west coast on Sunday.

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include PMI's from the major nations, DoE's, EZ consumer confidence and comments from Fed's Powell, Barkin, Williams, Daly Evans, ECB's Lagarde and US treasury secretary Yellen.
 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News
 

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Gold and silver trade marginally lower leading into the EU open

Gold and silver trade marginally lower leading into the EU open

Once again gold and silver trade lower this morning but only marginally. The yellow metal is just under flat at $1737/oz while silver over around half a percent into the red at $25.64/oz.

After inheriting a positive close from Wall Street, the bourses in the Asia Pac area struggled. The Nikkei 225 (-0.61%), ASX (-0.11%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.93%) all closed in negative territory.

In FX markets, the dollar once again reigned supreme. This time it was the commodities currencies that suffered as CAD, NZD and AUD all traded lower against the greenback. NZD/USD was the worst-performing major down -1.09%.

In the rest of the commodities complex, there was more weakness. Copper and WTI are both down 0.77% but nickel was the only one to buck the trend and traded 1.14% higher.

We had some comments from ECB's Lane who said, PEPP purchases will show a substantial increase in a consistent way over several weeks.

Over in Asia, China says will promote the use of a safe travel pass between China and Russia.

This comes after, the U.S., Canada, U.K. and EU sanction China over the treatment of Uyghurs. China responded by adding 10 more EU individuals to their travel ban list.

On the plus side, China's Premier Li Keqiang says again economic growth this year could exceed a target of above 6%.

It has been reported that there are signs that North Korea is deploying multiple rocket launchers on a western border island.

In the UK, there are some vague reports that AstraZeneca may have provided outdated data about its COVID-19 vaccine trial, according to the NIH.

On the vaccine front, the Biden administration is concerned Johnson & Johnson may miss vaccine goal.

Sticking with the President, there are reports that Biden's Economic Advisors are ready to present the President with the $3 trl next phase of the stimulus plan.

Adding to this on the stimulus front, Japan's MoF announces stimulus spending to support firms, workers.

Overnight Fed head Powell said the Fed will continue to support the economy 'for as long as it takes'.

As the house prices continue to rise in New Zealand, the government announces new measures to curb the rises. NZ housing agency can borrow NZ$2bnb for land purchases. The government are looking to boost housing supply, infrastructure with NZ$3.8bn fund. The administration has also extended the horizon for tax on investment property sales.

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include the UK labour market report, ECB purchase data, US new home sales, NZ trade data, BoJ minutes and comments from BoE's Bailey, Cunliffe, Fed's Powell, Bullard, Bostic, Barkin, Williams and Brainard.

 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

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Can the government confiscate your gold? E.B. Tucker on ‘the war against your wealth’

Can the government confiscate your gold? E.B. Tucker on 'the war against your wealth'

Ray Dalio, co-chief investment officer of Bridgewater Associates, recently wrote that policy makers short on money will likely raise taxes and prevent capital flows into “other assets” like gold and Bitcoin. E.B. Tucker, director of Metalla Royalty and author of “Why Gold, Why Now” said that the government already has the tools to do this.

“Everyone gets this idea that the [government] will raid your house and look for your gold. It’s not necessary. All you have to do is limit the ability to transact gold in the legal market, and then you assess an excise tax,” Tucker said.

By David Lin

For Kitco News

 

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