'Most violent' bull market is here: Gold looking at $5K, silver at $50 in just 3 years — Chancery Asset Management

The gold and silver bull market is in its early stages, and it is already looking to be one of the most volatile bull runs, according to Chancery Asset Management founder Thomas Puppendahl.

The COVID-19 outbreak was just “one snowflake that let the avalanche come down,” Puppendahl told Kitco News on the sidelines of the Mines and Money Online Connect virtual conference on Thursday.

The ingredients are all there for both gold and silver to begin an epic rise, and Puppendahl is not ruling out seeing gold at $5,000 an ounce and silver at $50 an ounce in just three years.

“We are still in the early stage of this next bull market, which is probably going to be the most violent and in percentage terms biggest bull market since it began in 1999-2000,” he said. “Medium term, I would expect $3,000-$5,000 gold in the next three years … Silver could go from $18 to $50 within the next three years.”

Another key prediction for the precious metals bulls is that silver will finally outperform gold, according to Puppendahl.

“Fundamentals are pretty much the same for gold and silver but silver moves in a much more volatile fashion. In a bull market, silver moves much more in percentage terms,” he said. “Ingredients are in place for silver to finally outperform gold.”

The reason why silver hasn’t done much up until now is because of the metal’s usual trading pattern at the beginning of a bull market, Puppendahl pointed out.

“In the early stages of the bull market, gold starts to move first and silver always lags behind but starts to move with certainty later. Once it moves, it really moves. We’ve seen it in 2010 when it went from $17 to $50 in the space on nine months,” he explained.

Longer term, Puppendahl is even more bullish on silver, expecting to eventually see triple digit prices for the precious metal. “It doesn’t take much to trigger a sharp move in silver because it is such a small market,” he said.

When it comes to gold, Puppendahl projects a vast acceleration in prices up to 2023, then some correction, and an ultimate climax around 2025.

“I’ve been bullish on gold for a long time. We are in the early stages of a third major bull market in this bigger cycle that will take gold to much higher levels,” he said. “It is not too much of a stretch to predict that gold will touch and maybe breach $1,900 this year or next year.”

So far, it has been a “stealth bull market,” said Puppendahl, meaning that it has gone largely unnoticed by the mainstream investors.

“The mainstream investors completely missed it so far because everyone looks at U.S. dollar gold price, which is still below its record high. But in every other currency gold is already at new highs,” he said.

But it is not too late to get in as Puppendahl sees prices heading much higher as inflation eventually picks up.

“Money printing has continued and accelerated. Gold needed a black swan event to launch the next bull market. Everything has come together now … We are seeing government going in hyper overdrive and printing even more money and central banks are calling on governments to implement fiscal stimulus because central baks are at the end of their tool box,” he said. “Government stimulus packages will finally trigger inflation in the real world. This is what triggered the gold bull run now. It is becoming clear that there will be real inflation in the real world.”

Money printing cannot go on forever and eventually something will need to change, Puppendahl added.

“Monetary system will need a reset to go back to something that is backed by some real asset like gold and silver,” he said. “The monetary system and money printing is way beyond the point where it could be repaired. That recent reset will involve higher gold price.”

Chancery Asset Management is based in Singapore. It is currently focused on developing its own gold assets in Brazil. The first is Faina Goldfields Inc. (“Faina”) located in the central Brazilian state of Goiás. The second project involves working with Valterra Resource Corp. to establish a presence in the Poconé-Cuiabá gold belt in Mato Grosso, Brazil.

 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

David

After 'momentary correction' gold price is ready to attack $1,800 and higher – analysts

Gold is looking at another volatile week with an attempt at breaching the $1,800 an ounce level, according to analysts.

The yellow metal is wrapping up a very exciting trading week after seeing prices hit 7.5-year highs and climbing to $1,796.10 on Wednesday. After some consolidation, prices are back above $1,770 with August Comex futures last trading at $1,780.10, up 0.54% on the day.

The risk-off sentiment in the market has been helping gold maintain its bullish momentum, but higher U.S. dollar has been stealing some safe-haven attention from gold. “The U.S. dollar is making a comeback, which is affecting commodity prices,” said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman.

At the forefront of investors’ minds is the rising COVID-19 reinfection rate in the U.S. The number of new cases rose at least 39,818 on Thursday, which is the highest one-day increase in the U.S. to date.

Concerns around how this will impact the U.S. economic recovery has led to another major stock market selloff on Friday, dragging the Dow down 500 points after Texas Governor Greg Abbott rolled back some of the state’s reopening measures. “At this time, it is clear that the rise in cases is largely driven by certain types of activities, including Texans congregating in bars,” Abbott said in a release.

Risk-off sentiment is good for gold but a significant escalation in coronavirus cases could potentially hamper the gold rally because at the end of the day it all comes back to inflation expectations, TD Securities head of global strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News on Friday.

“What we are seeing is a counter-intuitive phenomenon happening. On Friday morning, gold dropped along with equity markets,” Melek said. “The yellow metal's third attempt to break out into the $1,800s was interrupted by renewed virus concerns, which have paused the rise in long-term inflation expectations that we have seen over the past few trading session.”

Also weighing on the financial markets is the Federal Reserve’s decision on Thursday to limit dividend payments and bar share repurchases until at least the fourth quarter following its annual stress test.

Presidential election vibes

The U.S. presidential election is the headlines more and more with the latest poll data starting to make an impact.

“Right now, we are getting close to the presidential election season. For the first time, I am starting to see movement in the markets in reaction to where the polls are. That could shake up the gold market a bit if people think there is going to be a change in office,” Millman said.

The latest data is showing Joe Biden polling ahead of incumbent President Donald Trump in the race to win November's Presidential election, said Capital Economics chief U.S. economist Paul Ashworth.

“Trump's approval ratings have taken a hit from his mishandling of the coronavirus pandemic –including the recent surge in infections in the south and west of the country – and the wave of protests in response to the death of George Floyd,” Ashworth wrote on Friday.

But it is too early to read too much into Biden’s lead in the polls, he added. “The equity market could worry that a Biden victory, coupled with the Democrats winning control of the Senate, would lead to a significant rebound in corporate taxes. But even if the Democrats do win a majority, they will fall well short of a filibuster-proof super-majority in the Senate, which would make it much harder to push through big tax changes,” he noted.

Gold price direction as Q2 is wraps up

Aside from all the drivers on the surface, there is a lot happening behind the scenes due to the month of June ending and the second quarter wrapping up, said Afshin Nabavi, senior vice president at precious metals trader MKS SA.

“It is a difficult market. A lot of financial end-of-quarter, end-of-month squaring off is in order,” Nabavi said.

After testing new multi-year highs, gold always consolidates, which is a great time to buy the precious metal before it heads even higher, Nabavi said.

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we continued this move on the downside momentarily. These are all opportunity to buy for cheap,” he noted. “There is a lot of pressure around the economic recovery in the U.S. … which points to a higher price for gold going forward. The $1,770 held to the upside. Next resistance is going to be $1,780 and eventually $1,800.”

Gold has bounced off the resistance and has gone back to the technical support level of $1,764 and will now consolidate around $1,800 and try to break through, said Melek.

“Much will depend on where the economy seems to be going,” he said. “The big concern for gold is that real interest rates may not go down because inflation may be slow to recover because we are getting re-infections in the U.S.”

A lot of the price moves next week will be determined by the macroeconomic numbers, added Melek. “Good news is going to be good for gold as well,” he said.

Data to watch

Despite being a short week in the U.S. with markets closed on Friday to celebrate the Independence day, there are a number of important data sets to watch.

The biggest market moving day is likely to be Thursday with the U.S. employment report for June and factory orders for May both being released.

“The obvious focus will be the jobs report, which will be published on Thursday due to 3 July being a national holiday. With all states now experiencing some form of reopening, we should see another sizeable pick-up in employment, as workers return to their jobs. We look for payrolls to rise by around 3.5 million, but we have to remember that millions more remain out of work, with Google Mobility data suggesting in many states, especially in populous ones like New York, New Jersey and California, consumer and business activity remains far from normal,” ING economists wrote on Friday.

Wednesday will see the FOMC meeting minutes from June, ADP nonfarm employment change for June, and the ISM manufacturing PMI for June.

“The minutes are likely to confirm the Fed’s accommodative policy. Don’t think we rally on anything here. Powell has already been as bullish as can be. It will be important to watch any nuanced view that the Fed may not be as aggressive as the markets are pricing in,” Melek said.

Other key releases to keep an eye on include May’s U.S. pending home sales scheduled for Monday and June’s CB consumer confidence to be released on Tuesday.

 

By Anna Golubova

David

The reasons behind all the Chinese M&A

Rapidly depleting resources and permission to build businesses at scale are some of the reasons Chinese miners are making so many acquisitions, said Scott Trebilcock, CEO of KORE Mining.

Tebilcock joined Kitco's Michael McCrae and Mining Journals' Paul Harris on Friday for a discussion of major mining news of the week.

In a research piece from last week Haywood noted that there have been four acquisitions backed by Chinese entities this year, and three within the last three months. Deal highlights are Zijin coming out on top to acquire Guyana Goldfields at $323 million. There is also Shandong attempting to buy TMAC for $230 million.

Trebilcock said Chinese miners are being driven to look for ounces outside China.

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"Many of the known deposits are being depleted," said Trebilcock.

"And then finally, we've seen reforms in the last five years in China that have allowed the larger companies to list their shares internationally and get out from under the centralized control. That's freed up this well-capitalized large group of companies driven by shareholder interest for growth."

 

By Michael McCrae
For Kitco News

 

David

Higher gold prices will continue as long as Covid-19 does

The fundamental factors which have taken gold pricing from $1460 in March, to within four dollars of $1800 per ounce this week are still present, and they continue to be highly supportive of gold prices. First and foremost, and at the root of other fundamental issues is the global Covid – 19 pandemic which is now in its fourth month. In that short period of time the total number of reported cases globally has swelled to 9,649,299, resulting in the loss of 487,800 souls.

The pandemic resulted in businesses globally shutting down as countries went into a lockdown mode to slow the spread of the virus. This lockdown led to a massive global unemployment rate. In the United States as of June 22nd 33 states still have double digit unemployment rates. Even with a fractional improvement from the April unemployment rate of 14.7%, the unemployment numbers for May were a staggering 13.3%. The number of individuals unemployed in the United States is approximately 30 million, leaving one out of ten Americans jobless.

The U.S. Treasury Department has allocated roughly $3 trillion in aid through the “CARES Act”. The Federal Reserve took interest rates to near zero and simultaneously infused liquidity into the economy through a monetary policy of quantitative easing and added $3 trillion to their balance sheets as they purchased mortgage-backed securities, U.S. treasuries and now corporate bonds. These actions are not isolated as many other central banks including the European Central Bank have implemented extremely accommodative monetary policies.

Also, highly supportive of gold pricing are rising tensions between the United States and China in regards to the trade war. In a letter to lawmakers on June 24, the Pentagon provided a list of 20 “Communist Chinese military companies” operating in the United States.

According to Time magazine Pentagon spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said “As the People’s Republic of China attempts to blur the lines between civil and military sectors, ‘knowing your supplier’ is critical. We envision this list will be a useful tool for the U.S. government, companies, investors, academic institutions, and like-minded partners to conduct due diligence with regard to partnerships with these entities, particularly as the list grows.”

Not since the financial crisis of 2008 have, we witnessed the kind of economic upheaval that is currently plaguing countries worldwide. Not since the financial crisis of 2008 have, we seen gold pricing gain value at such a rapid pace. It seems highly likely that until the pandemic has run its course and the global economy returns to pre-pandemic numbers, that we will continue to see gold prices at this level or higher.

 

By Gary Wagner

David

What trend-line analysis suggests gold prices will be on Jan. 1 – brace yourself

I don't like to beat around the bush and I'll bet you don't either. So, let's make this quick. Nearby Comex gold futures hit a 7.5-year high of $1,783.10 Wednesday. The August futures contract hit a high of $1,796.10. The all-time high in nearby gold futures was $1,920.70, hit in September of 2011.

Take a gander at the weekly continuation chart for nearby Comex gold futures. Prices are in an accelerating uptrend as seen by the three trend lines that get progressively steeper. Trend-line analysis, using the latest, steepest trend line, projects the following prices in the following timeframes: Sept. 1–$1,886; Nov. 1–$2,040; Jan. 1–$2,213.

Of course, technical chart analysis is an imperfect art. However, most of the “smart money” in the marketplace will attest that studying technical price charts provides more trading success than solely examining supply and demand fundamentals in a market.

Jim Wyckoff

David

Russia ramped up gold production right before COVID-19 hit

Prior to the coronavirus paralyzing the world, Russia was ramping up its gold production, according to the Union of Gold Producers of Russia.

Russia’s total gold output reached more than 64 metric tons in Q1, which is up 5.11% from the same period last year, the union said.

“The coronavirus pandemic did not impact Russian gold mining companies’ production performance during the first three months of 2020. On the contrary, the results of the first quarter (Q1) maintained the trend of 2019, when Russia reached its record high in gold output,” says the union’s chairman Sergey Kashuba.

Total gold mined, excluding recycled gold, was up 4.6%, reaching more than 48 tons in Q1, the union added.

After March, however, gold production saw problems due to COVID-19 shutdowns.

“Problems with shift changes and the direct impact of the coronavirus on the health of gold mining workers began to affect production in April and May,” Kashuba noted. “That is why we will be carefully analyzing the results of gold production in the second quarter.”

As of now, the union still expects to see “a slight increase” in gold production in 2020, which would equal to 0.5%-1% rise compared to the record production levels of 2019.

Russian silver production, on the other hand, fell in Q1, dropping by 3.6% to total 338.92 tons.

Russian diamond giant, ALROSA, has fared less well due to COVID-19 than precious metal miners.The international market dried up for diamonds forcing production cuts on ALROSA.

In May ALROSA announced it was cutting production to 28–31 million carats versus its initial guidance of around 34 million carats. Commercial production at its Verkhne-Munskoye deposit was cut. ALROSA already suspended operations at Zarya and Aikhal earlier in the year.

Russian recovery after all the coronavirus-related shutdowns has been sluggish so far, noted ING chief Russia economist Dmitry Dolgin.

“Following the release of the full set of Russian data for May, including estimates of GDP growth, metrics of economic activity by households and corporates, as well as banking statistics, it appears that having passed the low point in April, Russia is now showing some signs of improvement, though at a very modest pace,” Dolgin wrote on Tuesday.

June is also likely to show further economic improvement but the recovery is looking to be slow, the economist added.

“June economic activity should be free from most of the lockdown restrictions and should be better than May, especially on the consumer side. At the same time the corporate activity is likely to remain under pressure of OPEC+ commitments and uncertainties related to medium-term consumer demand expectations. Based on this, the Russian fiscal and monetary authorities may experience calls for further support,” Dolgin said.

 

By Anna Golubova
For Kitco News

 

David

Low interest rates will last more than two years – David Rosenberg

It is inevitable that the global economy will see a bounce in activity after being devastated by the COVID-19 pandemic, but don’t expect it to reach pre-crisis levels any time soon, according to one economist.

In an interview with Kitco News, David Rosenberg, chief economist at strategist at Rosenberg Research and Associates, not only warned investors to expect a slower economic recovery but also that they shouldn’t look at equity market valuations as a signs that everything will be back to normal soon.

Although equities markets have seen their biggest rally in history off the March lows, Rosenberg said that the rally is being artificially supported by massive stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve and the federal government.

Last week, optimism for a V-shaped recovery picked up after the U.S. government reported a strong rise in retail sales in May. However, Rosenberg said that increased consumption is not sustainable.

“Maybe it shouldn't have been that big of a surprise when you consider that in the month of April, the U.S. government handed out $3 trillion,” he said. “That is basically charity money from uncle Sam to keep social stability intact.”

“Since then, industrial production and housing starts, both came in below expected, but you see, as long as the stock market's going up and up and up the people are going to believe that everything is good,” he added.

As to how to navigate these financial markets that have been artificially stimulated, Rosenberg said that it makes sense to hold some gold.

“All the central bank alchemy has led to these ever increasingly unstable markets. And we have to realize that volatility works in both directions up and down,” he said “Gold is going to do very well against this backdrop.”

Looking at interest rates, Federal Reserve is forecasting interest rates to remain at the zero-bound target for the next two years; however, Rosenberg said that a report published by the San Francisco Federal Reserve that looked at pandemics through the ages and the study suggests that rates could remain lower for much longer.

Quoting the report, Rosenberg said that the conclusion of the research shows that historically after a major pandemic, interest rates have remained low for decades afterwards.

“There's still going to be this lingering output gap, which is why [the Federal Reserve is] going to have rates close to zero for many years to come, I think beyond just a 2022,” he said.

Instead of looking at value plays in equity markets where valuation is tainted with central bank stimulus, Rosenberg said that investors should look for growth opportunities. Some of the sectors Rosenberg said that he likes include big tech as more and more people use technology to work from home, healthcare, and consumer staples and grocery stores that have developed strong online delivery programs.

 

By Kitco News
For Kitco News

David

Analysts ask if gold is ready to push above $1,800

Building on Friday's momentum, gold prices are starting the week on a strong note and are pushing back to within striking distance of critical resistance at $1,800 an ounce.

August gold futures last traded at $1,771.70 an ounce, up 1% on the day. According to market analysts, gold is getting a boost Sunday evening as investors start to question the health of the global economic recovery as the COVID-19 pandemic continues to spread unchecked, particularly in the U.S.

"While social distancing during March and April helped slow the spread, re-opening activities in a number of states – most notably Arizona, Alabama, Arkansas, South Carolina, North Carolina, Florida and Texas – have coincided with a wave of infections that may be spreading further south and west relative to the early affected states. In that sense, the recent increase in cases represents a "rolling," as opposed to a second, wave of COVID-19 in the U.S.," said economists from Nomura in a report late Friday.

However, although bullish sentiment is strong in the gold market, some analysts are warning that the precious metal might not have enough steam to break through its months-long trading range.

Marc Chandler, chief market strategist with Bannockburn Global Forex, warned that momentum indicators show that investors should use caution at current levels. He noted that in the 2008 Financial Crisis, gold didn't break out to new highs until the fourth quarter of 2009.

"Recall in mid-May, gold pushed to $1765 and reversed lower. The MACD is neutral, and the Slow Stochastic looks poised to turn lower. That said, many are looking for a move to $1800," he said in a research note Sunday.

Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone, also highlighted neutral sentiment and positioning in the gold market; however, he added that the precious metal is back on investor's radar after prices pushed back above $1,750 an ounce.

Daniel Dubrovsky, analyst at DailyFX.com, said that although gold is testing the top of its range, it needs a new catalyst to breakout. He added that weaker equity markets could spark a new uptrend for the precious metal.

A major risk event he said he is watching this week is the International Monetary Fund's updated forecast to be released Wednesday.

 

"The International Monetary Fund is going to update 2020 growth prospects ahead and those may paint a still-dismal picture," Dubrovsky said in a report Saturday. "Absent a shock that sinks equities, it seems that gold prices could continue to struggle in directionless trade."

Currency analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman said that there are expectations for the IMF to lower their growth forecasts to be more in line with recent projections from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, which sees the global economy contracting by around 6% this year.

 

Gold's technical picture is not its only headwind as it tests long-term resistance below $1,800 an ounce. Analysts note that the precious metal is entering its seasonally slow period.

In a recent interview with Kitco News, Jeff Clark, senior precious metals analyst at Goldsilver.com, said that although he is bullish on gold long-term, he wouldn't be surprised to see lower prices in July and August.

He added that any drop in gold should be seen as a buying opportunity.

"September is generally the best performing month of the year for both metals," he said. "So, I would definitely want my exposure before then."

 

Neils Christensen

David

Goldman raises 12-month gold forecast by 11% to $2,000 an ounce

Silver’s 12-month forecast pegged at $22/oz

Gold prices are likely to reach $2,000 an ounce in 12 months on the back of low real interest rates and concerns over currency debasement, even as developed markets emerge from COVID-19 lockdowns, lifting risk-on sentiment, according to a note Friday from Goldman Sachs.

The investment bank raised its 12-month forecast on gold to $2,000 an ounce, from $1,800. It also lifted its three-month view to $1,800 from $1,600 and its six-month forecast to $1,900 from $1,650.

“Gold investment demand tends to grow into the early stage of the economic recovery, driven by continued debasement concerns and lower real rates,” wrote analysts at Goldman Sachs. “Simultaneously, we see a material comeback from [emerging market] consumer demand boosted by easing of lockdowns and a weaker dollar.”

The analysts estimated that “fear” driven investment demand lifted gold by 18% this year, but the negative shock to “wealth” produced an 8% “drag.” They pegged the net effect at 10%, which coincides with gold’s year to date rise of 13%.

The most-active August gold contract GCQ20, +0.18% settled at $1,753 an ounce, up $21.90, or 1.3%, on Friday and was nearly 14% higher for the year so far.

The Goldman analysts expect strength in development market investment demand to “persist even as economies recover, supported by fears of debasement and the higher level of economic uncertainty of the crisis.”

Still, for gold prices to go materially above $2,000, inflation will need to move above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and this move would need to be met with a muted policy response, they said.

The analysts also raised their 12-month silver forecast by nearly 47% to $22 an ounce, from a previous forecast of $15. They said “coordinated global stimulus” will help generate global industrial production growth and economic activity.

“As the economy recover and ‘fear’ based demand for gold moderates, we expect silver industrial demand to increase, giving up prices,” they said.

In Friday dealings, July silver SIN20, -0.12% rose 34 cents, or 1.9%, to $17.847 an ounce, though the contract was still down by more than 1% for the year so far.

 

By Myra P. Saefong

David

Jerome Powell says that the economy's path ahead likely to be challenging

The primary mandate of the Federal Reserve has been to prioritize the goal of maximum employment at the top of the list. Not since the days of the Great Depression has this task been so daunting. Last week an additional 1.5 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits even though there have been signs and sources touting that the economy has been improving.

For the week ending on June 6, the number of Americans receiving unemployment benefits was 20.5 million individuals. That calculated to an unemployment rate of 14.1%. The Fed is on record forecasting that the unemployment rate will go down to 9.3% by the end of 2020. Although that is roughly 1/3 lower than the current rate it is well above the former rate of just 3.5% recorded in February. It is data such as this that has resulted in such a cautionary tone by the Federal Reserve. It is also the primary reason that the Fed is struggling with an uphill battle for the American worker.

Powell speaks to Youngstown leaders

In a speech today made via videoconference to the local leaders of Youngstown, Ohio, the Fed Chairman said that, “The U.S. economic recovery from the novel coronavirus epidemic is set to be challenging and there will be no quick fix.”

"We will make our way back from this, but it will take time and work … The path ahead is likely to be challenging. Lives and livelihoods have been lost, and uncertainty looms large. "

According to the New York Times, “Earlier this week, in two separate appearances before lawmakers in the U.S. Congress, Powell made plain that the United States faces a long overall recovery despite recent encouraging economic data on job gains and consumer spending.”

St. Louis Federal Reserve bank President, James Bullard said that he “was hopeful the worst of the economic crisis caused by the coronavirus pandemic may have passed in April, but the U.S. economy is not yet in the clear… I definitely don't think we're out of the woods. We're still at a high, high risk level here.”

Add to these genuine concerns about the economic fallout of the pandemic are the increasing tensions between the United States and China. North Korea’s current posturing in regards to South Korea. The skirmish on the Chinese and India border.

It is those types of warnings and geopolitical hotspots that may have a sobering effect, tempering recent gains in US equities. It could also create some very potent factors which could develop into a perfect storm scenario taking gold beyond this year’s current high of $1788 as it trades above $1800 by the end of the year. It might also have provided the needed kick to allow market participants to refocus upon the safe haven assets like gold.

 

 

By Gary Wagner

David