Gold edges lower as investors opt for cash amid deepening virus fears

Gold prices edged lower on Monday as a flight to cash to cover losses in equities overshadowed measures by global central banks to contain the economic fallout from the coronavirus epidemic.

Spot gold was down 0.2% to $1,614.46 per ounce by 0346 GMT after Friday's 0.7% drop. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $1,646.60 per ounce.

"The worse the situation gets the stronger the link between stocks and gold because if we see further economic deterioration that will drag gold down with the share markets," said Michael McCarthy, chief strategist at CMC Markets.

Asian shares slid and oil prices took another tumble as fears mounted the global shutdown for the virus could last for months.

The pandemic has already driven the global economy into recession and countries must respond with "very massive" spending to avoid a cascade of bankruptcies and emerging market debt defaults, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Friday.

The U.S. House of Representatives on Friday approved a $2.2 trillion aid package – the largest in history – to help cope with the virus-inflicted economic downturn.

The weekend brought more bad news on the virus front, with the global death toll reaching nearly 34,000. The United States has emerged as the latest epicentre, with more than 137,000 cases and 2,400 deaths.

The European Central Bank chief urged wrangling EU leaders to act more decisively to cushion the economic hit of the pandemic, three sources familiar with the matter said. Weighing on gold was a halt in the dollar's slide that came with a broader risk-averse mood, after the greenback surged amid a scramble for cash and then subsided as central banks launched unprecedented liquidity measures.

"The U.S. fiscal stimulus package is positive for the dollar and probably an element of that is coming through the moment. There is negative correlation between the dollar index and gold prices," IG Markets analyst Kyle Rodda said.

Holdings in the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust , rose 1.2% to 964.66 tonnes on Friday.

"I wouldn't say gold's status as safe-haven is over but if things continue to deteriorate economically it could become a funding source and that will offset its safe haven status," said CMC Markets' McCarthy.

Palladium fell 0.7% to $2,253.84 per ounce, platinum slipped 3.3% to $717.07, while silver slid 3.9% to $13.91.

 

By Asha Sistla
Monday March 30, 2020 01:37

 

David

Conditions are ripe for the price of gold bullion to double

Gold bullion has not done what it did during the past month since 2008.

The Midas metal GC00, +0.34% shows rapidly rising relative performance against the CRB Index as industrial commodities are crashing due to the coronavirus effect. Gold bullion is staying firm, close to a multiyear absolute high. This dynamic has caused bullion to register a relative all-time high compared with the CRB Index (see chart).

What happened to gold bullion after it registered its previous all-time high relative to the CRB in 2008? It doubled in absolute terms to peak above $1,900 in 2011 (see chart).

We have a similar environment at the moment. Interest rates have been dropped to zero at the fed funds rate level, and the federal deficit will be larger than 10% of GDP (larger than after the 2008 crisis) due to the $2 trillion bailout. Record deficit spending and the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing (QE) with no preset limits is the perfect environment for gold bullion.

The difference with 2008 is that this is a government-mandated recession. The government has to stop the economy in order to stop the coronavirus. It’s like turning off the circuit breaker on a whole house and having backup power for part of the house only. Second-quarter GDP growth in the U.S. will be down double digits in the 20%-40% range. GDP numbers are reported on an annualized basis, so if U.S. GDP is down 10% from the prior quarter, it is reported to be down 40% on an annualized basis. Third-quarter GDP in the U.S. may be up in double digits because of the same calculation, if the U.S. government has managed to flatten the curve of the infection.

With record deficit spending and interest rates at zero, we may be faced with an environment where the Fed will keep interest rates below the level of inflation for some time until the economy normalizes after the outbreak is controlled. This would be the perfect environment for gold bullion.

Beware of other precious metals

Other major precious metals — silver, platinum and palladium — fell a lot more than gold bullion in the past month, even though they have rebounded some. This is because they are primarily used for industrial purposes; only gold bullion has the majority of it used for precious purposes like jewelry and store of value. If the government-mandated global recession is not over soon, the industrial precious metals should continue to underperform.

Of the industrial precious metals, silver is the most interesting. It is also at a record discount to gold bullion if one looks at the famous gold-silver ratio, which went to 125 at the March extreme, which is an all-time high. That means one ounce of gold could buy you 125 ounces of silver, although we have retreated some on that indicator as silver has rebounded.

Because silver is more industrial than precious, if the coronavirus recession lasts longer, it will take longer to rebound. Be that as it may, it probably offers an opportunity to investors with a two-year horizon. The silver miners exchange traded fund Global X Silver Miners SIL, -6.63% looks interesting on pullbacks, as well as the iShares Silver Trust SLV, -0.66%.

Stay away from leveraged ETFs

The March panic sell-off in the stock market serves as a painful reminder that leveraged ETFs are for short-term traders only, and not for buy-and-hold investors. Losses can cascade and get multiplied by a factor of three on a daily basis, and there will be no coming back for the leveraged investments like Direxion Junior Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares JNUG, -21.73% or the Direxion Gold Miners Index Bull 3X Shares NUGT, -16.02% (see chart).

On the other hand, non-leveraged ETFs of gold miners can be interesting. Both the VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF GDX, -5.72% and its junior-miner version GDXJ, -8.64% sold off near levels where they were when the price of gold bullion was near $1,200 an ounce.

If there ever was a case of throwing the baby out with the bath water, GDX and GDXJ would be it. But I have never believed financial markets are efficient, so this is an opportunity to use it to your advantage.

 

By Ivan Martchev
Published: March 28, 2020 at 1:54 p.m. ET

 

 

David

COVID-19's toll to rattle gold prices next week as U.S. becomes new epicenter

A massive three-day bounce in stocks has proven to be only temporary as equities tumbled Friday, once again dragging gold down with it.

One of the biggest news to drive markets next week will be that the U.S. has become the new epicenter for the COVID-19 outbreak, surpassing China and Italy with the number of people infected.

The number of cases in the U.S. surged to more than 100,000, with at least 1,500 deaths. Worldwide there are now more than 590,000 cases and at least 26,900 deaths.

"The spread of the virus will continue to be very important, especially with the U.S. becoming the epicenter now," said TD Securities commodity strategist Ryan McKay.

The world will be watching Italy to see if there will be a flattening of the curve there, McKay told Kitco News Friday.

"If we start to see a solid trend of slowing growth there, it could be a good sign that social distancing measures do indeed work and would sort of give us the timeline as to what to expect over here in North America potentially," he noted.

What makes the news of the U.S. being the new COVID-19 epicenter worrying is the extent of how the rest of the global economy relies on the U.S. market and the U.S. consumer, said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman.

"The fact that the Fed has to use all of its ammunition sets the stage for everywhere else in the world that easy monetary policy and stimulus measures will be the norm for at least several weeks, possibly next several months," he said.

There is still a lot of hope around the $2 trillion stimulus package, which the House passed by voice vote on Friday afternoon.

Stimulus aside however, what concerns the markets is the enormity of the economic damage to the U.S. economy.

"While the stimulus measures being rolled out around the world can mitigate the initial negative fallout from the coronavirus outbreak and help support the eventual recovery, COVID-19's economic toll could be more severe," said FXTM market analyst Han Tan.

And no matter how massive the fiscal and monetary stimulus packages will be, they are all about damage control, not growth, noted ING's Chief International Economist James Knightley. "The U.S. can only grow once the economy re-opens," he said.

U.S. jobless weekly claims were just a sneak peek of the real "data horror show" that's about to be revealed via all the other U.S. macro datasets scheduled for release starting next week, said Nomura Global Markets Research.

Thursday's jobless claims number saw a spike of more than three million, with many people getting laid off amid widespread shutdowns across the U.S.

Jobless claims remain the critical number to pay attention to next week with Capital Economics projecting a climb to five million

"Given that the jump in claims to more than three million appeared to capture only a fraction of the claims reported by some states, particularly California, we are braced for a surge to nearer five million," said Capital Economics senior U.S. economist Michael Pearce.

Friday's nonfarm payrolls data will be slightly less significant because March's survey was conducted before all major layoffs hit the U.S. "The March payroll survey was conducted in the second week of this month and therefore came too early to capture the full hit to the labor market from the pandemic," Pearce noted

David

Are you late to the gold price party if you didn't buy 6 months ago?

Should you have bought gold six months ago before the world even heard of the coronavirus, which has triggered surging physical demand for gold and could drive prices to new historic highs?

Challenging times like these always draw new people into the gold market, said The Perth Mint global gold market advisor Kevin Rich.

“Gold is attracting more volume from existing gold investors—[But] times like these also always bring new people in,” Rich told Kitco News on Wednesday.

Even though some investors are now disappointed they didn’t buy gold six months ago, the precious metals market is cyclical and experienced investors will tell the newbies that there are still substantial gains to be made.

Some investors might say: ‘I am late to the party and should have bought gold six months ago.’ But experienced investors know that these cycles come and go. It reinforces the safe haven and diversification benefits that savvy gold investors have seen over the years,” Rich said.

To calm the fearful buyers who are scrambling to find some physical gold bars or coins to purchase in what looks to be a very tight market, Rich said not to worry.

“For now, there is enough [gold] to go around,” he said. “Plenty of gold in different formats available.”

It is important to remember that eventually, all global COVID-19 cases will peak and things will begin to normalize.

“For now, any mining or refining closures I think are temporary. This is a historic one-off event that none of us have ever seen … For now, it seems that we are good, but it depends on how long this event goes on,” he noted. “I would anticipate that the curves will start to come down and things will normalize.”

Whether it will take weeks or months, there is still “probably enough gold above ground to make it through that period.”

The massive worldwide demand for physical gold is easily spotted through The Perth Mint’s own business. In March, the mint’s depository business topped $5 billion in value of the precious metals it has sold and is holding for people.

“That’s a record level for them. They are seeing strong demand from investors. A lot of it is coming from Europe, especially Germany. There is demand from U.S. as well,” Rich said.

And even though The Perth Mint is running low on some inventory items, it is adding additional shifts to its refining output to meet some of that increased demand.

“There has been enormous demand for small bars and coins. Some of the inventory has been depleted. They’ll work hard to re-stock,” Rich pointed out. “There is no shortage of the underlying metal behind the refining. It is really just the question of refining capacity right now.”

For now, the gold price action has mostly been about the financial markets than the supply and demand side of things, Rich added.

“Gold prices are really being set with what is happening in the financial markets relative to equities … But over time, as the dust settles, the physical side will have an impact as some refineries around the globe continue to close,” he said.

Both, the financial markets side and the physical side are very constructive for the gold price.

The COVID-19 outbreak has tested gold’s safe-haven status, which proved to investors how valuable it is to have the yellow metal in their portfolios.

“If you look at how gold has performed through the entire pulldown in equities, it performed reasonably well. There was some selling pressure as people were liquidating all assets to meet margin calls and deleveraging. Overall, it proved to be a safe haven,” Rich said. “The reason why people add it to their portfolios was proven once again as it held up through this period.”

Going forward, gold prices could be looking at another historic run higher, especially considering everything the Federal Reserve has been doing as well as the overall low-interest environment globally, Rich noted.

“These monetary packages that the Fed and other central banks are doing are similar to what happened in 2008. Down the road, nine to 12 months from now, there will potentially be an inflationary effect, which is good for gold,” he said.

The patterns of 2008 resemble today’s crisis — first equities sold off in 2008 and gold was selling off, then the Fed stepped in and gold ran up, which started the 2008-2011 historic gold run, Rich explained. “There are similarities to what is happening now,” he added.

 

By Anna Golubova
For Kitco News

David

Some price pullback is healthy for gold

Consider this, gold has had a price range from Friday’s low ($1457) to Tuesday’s high (1698.60) of $241. If you compare Friday’s opening price ($1470) to Tuesday’s close ($1660) Gold had gained a total of $190 over three trading days. Based on the rapid ascent of gold pricing today’s moderate selloff I believe is healthy.

We have all witnessed markets that have entered what is known as a parabolic rise, or more commonly referred to as a J curve, and on the majority of instances the steeper the climb the harder the fall. Gold has experienced a dramatic price increase from Friday’s open up until Tuesday’s close. Which means that today’s decline of approximately $21 in gold futures is a healthy pullback.

As of 4:45 PM EST gold futures basis the most active April contract is currently fixed at $1640.50. That is just $20 off of yesterday’s close. If we create a Fibonacci retracement from the low of Friday to the high of Tuesday or today, the current decline is approximately at the 23% Fibonacci retracement level. While that is considered a mild pull back, current pricing at $1641.30 is well off of today’s intraday low of $1615.70

Our technical studies currently indicate that major support occurs between $1600 and $1607 which is the 38% Fibonacci retracement. The studies also indicate the first level of minor support at $1643.30, the 23% retracement level.

Another noteworthy aspect of the last two trading days has been that on both occasions traders have moved gold futures as high as $1699.02 days in a row. This creates a candlestick pattern simply known as a tweezer top. This pattern requires two consecutive days to have approximately equal highs. It differs from a tower top or bottom in that that pattern requires multiple candles to find support or resistance at approximately the same price point. We can see an example of that on today’s daily chart which shows a tower bottom occurs at approximately $1458.60.

The other interesting observation about gold pricing over the last few weeks has been the large difference between spot prices and futures pricing. Currently spot gold is trading at $1616.40 which is a net decline approximately five dollars on the day. Compared to current futures pricing at $1643 the differential between April futures and spot gold is roughly $27. In my experience as a former commodity broker, former CTA and now a market analyst I have never seen the differential between spot and futures most current month being this large.

What is more perplexing is that spot is currently below futures pricing and according to a report in MarketWatch, Josh Strauss, partner at money manager Perkin Hardy Strauss in Chicago says that “there is no gold. There’s roughly a 10% premium to purchase physical gold for delivery. Usually it’s like 2%. I can buy a one-ounce American Eagle for $1,800. Kitco reported today that it was out of almost all standard 1-ounce gold coins. American eagles and buffaloes, issued by the US Mint are both out of stock.

Which beckons that we ask the following question; if there is such a shortage now why is spot pricing in gold below the most active April contract of gold futures. One plausible explanation would be that the expecta

Wishing you as always good trading,

 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

David

Get ready for $2,500 gold price this summer – B. Riley FBR

Massive gold price revisions are hitting the market this week as analysts estimate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis, with one investment bank upping its Q3 and Q4 gold price forecasts to an impressive $2,500 an ounce.

Citing unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy stimulus, B. Riley FBR analysts said on Tuesday that they expect gold to surge to $2,500 an ounce in Q3 and continue to trade at those levels in Q4.

“It has not been our practice to forecast gold price,” wrote B. Riley FBR’s analysts. “[But] due to our conviction in rising gold prices, we are meaningfully raising our gold price deck … to $2,500/oz in 3Q20 … and we feel compelled to align our 12-month price targets to this view.”

The main driver will not be a potentially deep recession or another major drop in equity markets, but extremely low rates along with “unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus,” the analysts said.

“Regardless of how much longer recession conditions will continue and how much further general equity markets might retreat, extreme monetary and fiscal stimulus policies being enacted on a global basis will have repercussions,” B. Riley FBR’s note stated. “These repercussions will likely parallel 2009-2011, and drive gold price to new highs.”

Gold miners will greatly benefit from this surge in prices once the economy begins to return to normal more or less, the analysts added.

“We believe the current macro environment has been primed to drive gold prices to the $2,500/oz level. During such a gold price ascent, gold will be the best performing asset class, and gold related equities will be the best performing equity sector,” they wrote.

The investment bank advises its clients to “overweight gold and gold-related equities, and hold a market cap weighted portfolio of our favorite names: NEM, RGLD, PVG, SSRM, and CDE.”

“We also recommend our favorite pre-producers (GSV, SA, SILV), which we view as most likely to be caught up in an M&A wave associated with rising gold prices,” the analysts added.

 

By Anna Golubova
For Kitco News

David

Gold, silver prices soar; inflation on horizon?

Gold and silver prices are trading sharply up in midday U.S. futures trading Monday. Prices shot from modestly higher levels overnight to sharp gains following an early-morning announcement from the Federal Reserve that the U.S. central bank is very aggressively buying more securities, including mortgage-backed, and also will open up a “main street” lending facility. The Fed used the term “unlimited” on amounts it will spend. U.S. stock indexes initially shot higher on the news but quickly sold off again. April gold futures were last up $65.30 an ounce at $1,550.30. May Comex silver prices were last up $0.505 at $12.895 an ounce.

Today as I watched the TV business news channels continue to report dire news on the economy, and stock and financial markets–in particular a national movie theater official who said there is not one single member of his association that is making one single dime at present—I pondered the following as my wife and I have been holed up for two weeks in my rural Midwest home on a dead-end road: When this coronavirus panic has run its course and the severely impacted people worldwide return to a normal way of life, it seems that all of the world that has been pent up for what will likely have been so many weeks will want to get out in the public and do some things, and be some places and enjoy life again! That means a surge in retail demand, especially at entertainment-related businesses. That potential massive surge in consumer demand is likely to be temporary but there are a few stock market forecasters saying the stock indexes will be back at record highs by next year. Importantly, after the U.S. and other major central banks of the world have flooded their economies with massive sums of cash, it seems that pent-up consumer demand could be even stronger. My college economics classes taught me that when you combine higher consumer demand with money that has flooded the banking system it is a sure signal for price inflation—and maybe problematic price inflation at that. Ironically, after so many years of low inflation, it may have taken a crash in the world economies into near depression levels to restart price inflation trends that up until a dozen years ago had been rising at significantly higher annual rates. When I got into the commodity markets industry full-time over 35 years ago, I also learned that price inflation is bullish for raw commodities, and especially for gold. And after over three decades in the business I do know that price history in markets repeats itself. I could be off the mark on this rising inflation theory, but one cannot argue that the elements for such occurring are or will be in place. Let me know your thoughts. I enjoy hearing from my valued Kitco readers all over the world. jwyckoff@kitco.com

Global stock markets were lower in overnight trading. U.S. stock indexes were locked limit down in overnight trading as the U.S. Congress over the weekend failed to agree on a financial aid package for U.S. businesses and citizens, which was being blamed for the even more dour marketplace mood to start the trading week. There are midday reports that the U.S. Congress is close to agreement on a bailout package.

The Covid-19 outbreak continues to spread worldwide, with the U.S. economy shutting down even further as many states, including New York and California, have been locked down by their governors. Focus in the U.S. is on a shortage of medical supplies. Local health officials are now asking for the public to donate any supplies such as masks and gloves that they have at home. U.S. Senator Rand Paul has been diagnosed with Covid-19. Over the weekend much of the American public came to the stark realization the U.S. is not going to remain on lockdown for just a couple weeks, but instead for a period likely at least twice that long and probably even longer. China-U.S. relations are becoming more strained as President Trump now refers to Covid-19 as the “China virus,” which has angered the Chinese people.

The important outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices weaker and trading around $22.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker after hitting a three-year high overnight. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield has dropped to around 0.78% Monday after trading above 1.0% last week.

Technically, April gold futures bulls and bears are back on a level overall near-term technical playing field as a steep price downtrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Gold bulls' next upside near-term price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,600.00. Bears' next near-term downside price breakout objective is pushing prices below solid technical support at today’s low of $1,484.60. First resistance is seen at $1,575.00 and then at $1,600.00. First support is seen at $1,525.00 and then at $1,500.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

May silver futures bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as a steep price downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. A bearish pennant pattern may also be forming. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $14.00 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $13.23 and then at $13.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $12.29 and then at $12.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

May N.Y. copper closed down 870 points at 208.40 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today and closed at a three-year low close. The copper bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 234.15 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 197.25 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 214.65 cents and then at 217.50 cents. First support is seen at 205.00 cents and then at today’s low of 202.05 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

 

By Jim Wyckoff
For Kitco News

David

Gold price dips below $1,490 ounce, Asian markets trounced

Worry is still gripping world markets in the face of the COVID-19 scare.

Markets are looking for cash and precious metals are getting dumped. On Sunday evening gold dipped below $1,490 ounce, a four-month low. Silver dropped below $12.30 ounce before recovering.

Platinum bucked the trend and traded up, reaching a high of $625 ounce. Palladium was up, too, breaking through $1,580 ounce.

Pacific-Asian stocks are down. Hang Seng opened 5% lower at 21.659. The S&P/ASX 200 is off nearly 6% as of midnight ET.

Dow futures tumbled 900 points on Sunday, tripping the 5% allowable limit and halting further trading, reported CNN.

Reuters reported that oil prices are off more than $1 a barrel at the start of the trading session on Sunday.

Markets are waiting for some monetary action. The U.S. Congress is wrangling over a $1-trillion economic stimulus bill. The bill was held up on Sunday, but negotiation is resuming. A week ago the Federal Reserve acted, slashing the federal fund rate between 0 and 1/4 percent.

 

By Kitco News
Sunday March 22, 2020 22:12

David

Gold settles higher, but logs a second weekly decline

Gold futures rose Friday, finding support after indiscriminate selling across financial markets weighed even on some traditional havens, sending prices for the precious metal lower for the week.

For now, gold has gotten a boost from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s proposal to get “needed relief cash in hands of middle and low income households, and other stimulus measures moving forward,” said Jeff Wright, executive vice president of GoldMining Inc.

“This has at least temporarily stemmed the tide of liquidation selling of all assets, gold no exception,” he told MarketWatch. “All signs point to gold moving higher in near term, unless panic selling wave returns.”

The ICE U.S. Dollar index DXY, -0.78% pull back is also supportive for gold, Wright said. “All signs point to gold moving higher in near term, unless [the] panic selling wave returns.”

Gold for April delivery GCJ20, +1.47% on Comex rose $5.30, or 0.4%, to settle at $1,484.60 an ounce. For this week, prices for the most-active contract lost 2.1%, according to FactSet data. The previous week’s loss of more than 9% was the largest since September 2011.

May silver SIK20, +4.12% rose 25.1 cents, or 2.1%, to $12.385 an ounce, for a weekly decline of 14.6%. Prices on Wednesday settled at the lowest since January 2009.

Gold has “rebounded alongside the improvement in risk appetite, while falling for much of the week as central banks around the world threw the kitchen sink at the coronavirus,” said Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at Oanda, in a note.

“Their efforts are not in vain but we’re not seeing the surge in demand for gold that we’ve seen in the past when the market is flooded with liquidity. I feel there may be a lag effect, with investors still liquidating gold positions to fill holes elsewhere but only time will tell,” he said.

Meanwhile, benchmark U.S. stock indexes moved lower in Friday dealings as gold futures settled. Still, the global equity rout slowed this week as central banks rolled out additional stimulus measures and governments weighed fiscal responses.

Against that backdrop, May copper HGK20, -1.48% ended at $2.1715 a pound, down 0.6% Friday and nearly 12% lower for the week. April platinum PLJ20, +2.44% tacked on 4.3% to $622.50 an ounce, with prices down over 16% for the week, but June palladium PAM20, -0.74% added 0.7% to $1,540.20 an ounce, for a weekly rise of around 2%.

“Fundamentally, gold should be in $1,500-1,600 range, and moving higher based on FOMC balance sheet expansion, stimulus measures and traditional retention of safe haven status,” said Wright. A “weekend of calm and quiet will be welcome for everyone in the market—long and shorts and public in general.”

Published: March 20, 2020 at 1:54 p.m. ET<br>
by Myra P. Saefong and William Watts

David