Does OFAC Really Know What They’re Doing? A War On Crypto And Privacy

Does OFAC Really Know What They’re Doing? A War On Crypto And Privacy

This month, we witnessed one of the most significant attacks on crypto privacy in the form of the US Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctioning Tornado Cash. This led to protocols blocking addresses, funds being seized, and one of the Tornado Cash developers being arrested. The action was unprecedented, given that it was the first time we have effectively had sanctions placed on a piece of open-source software – essentially, restrictions on lines of code. 

For those unfamiliar with Tornado Cash, it has long been one of the most well-known mixing protocols on Ethereum. What it would essentially do is obfuscate or camouflage transaction history. This means it would anonymize transactions and remove all traces of where funds originated. Thousands of people used this privacy tool in the Defi space.

Unfortunately, it was also used for laundering the proceeds of cybercrime, which is the use case the Treasury focused on, stating that Tornado was a favorite tool of North Korean hackers and had been used to launder more than $7 billion. 

The moment Tornado was sanctioned, its website was taken down, and the code disappeared from GitHub. Not only that, but one of the contributors had his GitHub account banned. Circle blacklisted any USDC in the affected wallets, and RPC providers such as Infuror and Alchemy started blocking requests to Tornado Cash Smart contracts. 

Additionally, some decentralized applications also began to restrict access to their front ends for wallets that had interacted with the Tornado Cash Smart contract. For example, both Aave and dYdx reported blocking access from wallets that had interacted with Tornado Cash and even those that had received funds from it. Regarding dYdx, users who had insignificant amounts but were associated with Tornado Cash in the past were also blocked.

Dusting Celebrity Wallets Gag

Things were further complicated because someone in the community started dusting several public ETH addresses of celebrities in the space. In other words, they sent many small transactions to hundreds of known wallets associated with ETH addresses and their .ens official addresses. 

The likes of Brian Armstrong, Jimmy Fallon, and Steve Aoki were potentially committing sanctions violations by appearing to be doing business with a sanctioned protocol. What's even crazier than that is that some of those users who were subjected to the dusting found that they could not interact with Aave’s front end. These included the likes of Anthony Cesano and Justin Sun. 

The gag effectively points out the absurdity of such sanctions for users receiving funds from blacklisted addresses that they have no power to decline. The open nature of crypto is designed to cut out intermediaries, unlike the traditional financial sector that would use banks and other financial institutions to act as gatekeepers against such transactions.


Image source: eff.org

Is Code Fundamentally Free Speech? 

Perhaps the most chilling development, at least so far, was the arrest by Dutch police of one of Tornado Cash’s developers. Alexey Pertsev was picked up by the Dutch Fiscal Information and Investigation Service (FIOD) two days after Tornado Cash was sanctioned. The Dutch police have yet to clarify which exact rules Pertsev broke, but if it's just because he wrote some code, this is a dangerous precedent for several reasons. Furthermore, he is still detained and forbidden from communicating with his wife.  

The first thing we need to ask ourselves, however, is whether these actions by the treasury were legal. It is the first time that the treasury has effectively sanctioned a tool, a piece of Open Source Code that exists on the Ethereum Blockchain and which can be used by anyone for any purpose, albeit good or bad. Given that it is open source, that means it is akin to the likes of a public good. 

So that could be comparable to a road or a park; it would be as if OFAC were to sanction the use of an interstate highway because drug dealers drive on it. Or a more relevant example would be the treasury sanctioning the TCP IP protocol because hackers use the internet for hacking: It's impractical.

Moreover, just because a tool is sanctioned does not mean that the criminals will not use it. That's because criminals, by definition, have zero consideration for the law; they're likely to continue using the Smart contract as they see fit. Then there is the fundamental question of whether sanctioning a piece of code violates the First Amendment. 

To put it in perspective, thanks to a 1996 case Bernstein versus the DOJ, it's been established that code should be considered as speech, and if it is indeed speech, then it should be protected by the First Amendment. By sanctioning this tool, the treasury effectively says that speech itself is illegal. 

Now there is a real possibility that should someone want to challenge these sanctions, they could have a strong case in court. The Coin Center lobbying group is doing just that and believes the Treasury has overstepped its legal authority. The group wants to engage with OFAC to share their thoughts and will be exploring with counsel a court challenge. Additionally, they have had inquiries from members of Congress about the situation and are keeping the interested parties briefed on the matter. 

Furthermore, if, indeed, the only thing the developer did was write code, then that could also be seen as a violation of free speech. But if any legal challenges are mounted, they will take a long time to settle. Until then, the sanctions will have to be enforced, which means that specific Defi projects and protocols will continue blacklisting the Smart contract for fear of arrest. 

 

What Are The Practical Issues? 

Apart from the legal aspect, there is a practical consideration for how this will be enforced.  Remember, criminals will be criminals, and they will continue to use it. The code is open source and free to fork. Should that happen, the treasury will ultimately be playing whack-a-mole with a bunch of newly deployed Smart contracts. 

Not only that but those other crypto projects and protocols will also have to monitor not only the funds coming from the original Tornado Cash Smart contract but also from all the forked ones. This could quickly become a logistical impossibility, and projects will always have to worry whether any ETH they handle has gone through a forked version of the original Tornado Cash.

And speaking of which, there's also the broader question around who could technically find themselves violating OFAC rules due to these sanctions. 

If someone sends ETH from the Tornado contract to you, does that mean you are in violation? I mean, it's not like you can refuse to receive it. As we saw with those dusting attacks, protocols themselves have started blocking some of these dusted addresses. Could the Feds start going after any of those wallets that have received Tornado-tainted ETH? Could we soon see Jimmy Fallon dragged away in handcuffs? 

It's not even about addresses that have received funds. What about liquidity providers on a DEX? What happens if they unknowingly convert ETH that has been through Tornado Cash into some other cryptocurrency? Are they thus engaging with sanctioned entities? 

What about Ethereum miners? What liability did they have if they were to propagate a block that included a Tornado Cash transaction? Does that mean that they could also be flirting with illegality? Or how about that ETH that is sent to the ETH2.0 staking contract? What would that mean for Ethereum’s Proof-of-Stake? 

What happens once the transition to proof of stake is complete? Will validators have to decide to censor certain transactions that their jurisdiction deems illegal? Could they get censored? So you can see how quickly this grows out of control. The crypto space has just seen a massive can of worms open up right in front of it. 

Now, of course, there will be some who claim that these actions are justified. Swiped funds from some of the most high-profile crypto hacks of the past two years have gone through Tornado. This was seen in the wake of the $100 million Harmony hack a few weeks ago. 

Why Do We Want Privacy?

Many people have been asking whether there are any legitimate use cases for Tornado Cash, a tool designed specifically for privacy. Essentially this all comes down to the broader question of why someone would want to have financial privacy in the first place. As the old saying goes, “why do you worry if you have nothing to hide?” 

Well, for plenty of reasons; firstly, because blockchains are public and transparent, everyone can see exactly what your wallets are doing and what you could be buying or investing. This is not the case with traditional finance, where your bank account balances and spending habits aren't public. The moment they are public, and someone can attach them to your IRL identity, it opens you up to potential physical harm if criminals ever want access to your crypto. 

Or perhaps you wanted to donate crypto to a cause that may get you into serious trouble in your country. For example, what happens if you were a citizen of Iran or Venezuela who wanted to donate to a journalist or newspaper that the government didn't like? Blockchain is immutable; you’d live in constant fear of being placed on a list of some kind. 

Or how about if you were a Russian who wanted to donate to Ukraine, not something you would like the FSB to know about? On the flip side, you could be a Ukrainian refugee wishing to hide where you are getting your donations from. This is something that Vitalik Buterin himself highlighted earlier this year when he donated to the country. 

Beyond such high stakes implications, it could also just be a situation where you don't want people you interact with on-chain to know what you do with your money. For example, let's assume that you get paid in crypto. That means your employer can see exactly what you do with that money and what you're buying. 

Or perhaps you're buying something from an online Merchant, and you don't want them to know what else you've been spending the money on or how much you have; just imagine the targeted advertising coming your way. Ironically this would be much easier to achieve when paying with a wholly open and permissionless form of money. 

These are reasons why someone would want to anonymize their transaction history. Some might say you could just use a centralized exchange; however, the whole point of the decentralized and censorship-resistant currency is that you don't have to rely on a centralized gatekeeper. Moreover, some people are just not comfortable having others holding their private keys, and can you blame them? 

OFAC’s False Press Release

In its press release, it was also pretty disingenuous for the Treasury to claim that $7 billion was laundered through Tornado Cash. That was the total volume of transactions, many of which would have been for such perfectly legitimate reasons. 

In fact, according to stats from Chain Analysis, only about 17% of the funds that flow through the protocol were tied to sanctioned activity. The vast majority, 50%, was related to DefI activities. That means that these users were thrown into the laundering bucket by the Treasury when all they were really doing was trying to anonymize their funds. 


Image Source: Chain Analysis

First Crypto War Had Net Positive Result

So this raises the question of what all this means for crypto privacy and also privacy in general. It's pretty clear that privacy is under attack, albeit this move by the treasury was prompted by concerns around the North Korean hacking. Still, this radical approach by the Treasury is so nonspecific for what it's trying to achieve that you have to wonder whether the folks at OFAC gave any thought to collateral damage. 

Many have drawn parallels with the early Crypto Wars, for example. For unfamiliar people, this was when the US government arrested Phil Zimmerman, a developer who distributed PGP cryptography online. They accused him of “munitions export, without a license.” 

They contended that his PGP encryption system was a weapon that adversaries could use. Really? It would seem they don’t consider that any citizen wants and has a right to privacy. Only criminals and enemy governments would want to encrypt their communications. 

Well, it turned out that there were many practical uses for encryption online, and various encryption standards have helped power the multibillion-dollar e-commerce revolution we've experienced over the last 20 years. What was initially considered a way to hide state secrets has allowed legal commerce to thrive. 

Many have also wondered why Tornado Cash got hit and not other well-known crypto projects, like Monero. Virtual mixers seem to be viewed with much more suspicion than privacy-by-default currencies. People could see on-chain how the Lazarus group was laundering its funds through the tool. This isn't something that you can easily observe with Monero. 

Moreover, the sheer volume of funds running through Tornado Cash made it a prime target, but this doesn't mean Monero isn't being studied and tracked. There may well be a robust state-backed effort to crack the ring signature technology for which Monero is famous. This is perhaps one of the reasons why the Monero developers pushed through some new upgrades to the protocol only recently. 

Crypto And Congress Take A Stand

There has been a genuine outcry from the crypto industry arguing that the Treasury Department’s actions to shut the Tornado Cash could be “unconstitutional” as people have a right to privacy. 

Abraham Piha, co-founder, and CEO of Web3-focused firm Tomi, told Cointelegraph

“Tornado existed only because most blockchains were not private enough. If successive updates of Ethereum or Bitcoin include protocol integrations like Mimblewimble, will the next step be to block them as well? This act is yet another reason to push for Web3, a free web, controlled by users and not by some big brother governments.”

Kenny Li, co-founder and core developer for Manta Network, a privacy-preservation protocol, said that the Treasury’s decision to sanction Tornado Cash is far-fetched and extreme, even though, in the past, specific individual crypto wallet addresses have been subject to the same treatment. But in most cases, he said, there was a clear case of fraud, hacks, or a Ponzi scheme:

“In this case, smart contract addresses are being blacklisted. Smart contracts aren’t people. Not only that, but people forget that Tornado Cash is a protocol, not a person or an entity, which means it will continue to run regardless of the sanctions. It is time that we realize privacy and anonymity aren’t the same, and Web3 is all about privacy.”

Additionally, some Congress members are standing up, demanding an explanation from OFAC. Specifically, United States Congressman Tom Emmer sent a four-page letter to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen regarding the unprecedented sanctioning of Tornado Cash. 

He posed a series of questions that sought to clarify the position of the Treasury Department’s OFAC. They were practical questions noting that Tornado Cash is a collection of several Ethereum Smart contract addresses that are not controlled by an individual or entity. 

Emmer asked what persons could be associated with those addresses and:

“Given that the Tornado Cash back-end will operate unchanged […] as long as the Ethereum network continues to operate, who or what entity did OFAC believe was reasonably responsible for imposing controls on the Tornado Cash blockchain contracts?”

Emmer posted the full letter on Twitter, stating that the growing adoption of decentralized technology would certainly raise new challenges for OFAC. Nonetheless, technology is neutral, and the expectation of privacy is normal.

Closing Thoughts

Firstly, I dare say we can all agree that those who engage in criminality should be brought down. The laundering of ill-gotten gains, be it through a bank account or a Defi protocol, should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. 

Those wallets linked to criminal activity should also be sanctioned and flagged. This is precisely what the treasury did before the Tornado Cash sanctions were imposed. And it's not as though this approach wasn't enjoying some success. Thanks to some pretty advanced tools and tracking services, law enforcement can catch such miscreants more effectively than they could in the past. 

They also have the power of subpoenas and search warrants. They simply didn't need to take this action against Tornado Cash. The collateral damage resulted in a loss of privacy for some and a massive disruption for all in the Defi space. 

As for those North Korean hackers, they'll switch to one of the other 100 or so laundering techniques they were using long before Tornado started operating. Moreover, given that tornado cash is nothing but code, it'll be hard to outlaw permanently; it'll be a game of whack-a-mole. It won't have the desired effect. And the collateral damage is already permeating the crypto industry. 

These actions also raise legal questions. Is this a breach of the First Amendment, and what happens to any citizens who have used it in the past? Or anyone that interacts with it? It's a legal quandary, to say the least. 

With legal challenges brewing, this could turn into a new crypto war. One, with a positive long-term impact, as we saw with the first crypto war. Or maybe the large centralized institutions will conform, and we’ll have a more amenable but less free crypto space. It does demonstrate how some developers will continue to embrace decentralization, and many of us as individuals will fight for our right to freedom and privacy. 

Reference:
Coin Bureau
Cointelegraph

 

 

 

Editor and Chief Markethive: Deb Williams. (Australia) I thrive on progress and champion freedom of speech. I embrace "Change" with a passion, and my purpose in life is to enlighten people to accept and move forward with enthusiasm. Find me at my Markethive Profile Page | My Twitter Account | and my LinkedIn Profile.

 

 

 

 

 

Also published @ BeforeIt’sNews.com; Steemit.com

 

David

Gold SWOT- Demand for Gold & Precious Metals Is Running Hot

Gold SWOT- Demand for Gold & Precious Metals Is Running Hot

Strengths

The best performing precious metal for the week was gold, up 0.21%. Gold remained stable during the week as bond yields retreated and investors weighed the outlook for global growth on concerns that coronavirus variants may threaten the economic recovery. The dip in Treasury yields last week helped boost the appeal of the non-interest-bearing metal. Gold then stabilized later in the week as the dollar and Treasury yields pared some of their gains made in the wake of U.S. inflation data that came in significantly higher than expected. Prices paid by U.S. consumers surged in June by the most since 2008, topping all forecasts and testing the Federal Reserve’s commitment to sticking with ultra-easy monetary support for the economy.

A UBS call with a leading diamond expert indicates diamond market fundamentals remain attractive with demand strong in the U.S. and China with mid-stream and producer inventories healthy. Midstream inventories have fallen to more sustainable levels due to structural changes and tighter credit, and profitability has returned. Supply fell 6% in 2020 to 119 million carats, the lowest level since the 1990s, due to curtailments/closures. Rough prices are back to pre-COVID levels, after falling 15% in the first half of 2020.

Kirkland Lake Gold reported positive production and sales information. The company produced 379,000 ounces of gold in the second quarter, 9% above consensus. Second quarter sales were 365,000 ounces, 5% above consensus. The company expects to end 2021 in the top half of 1.3-1.4-million-ounce guidance. Dundee Precious Metals reported preliminary production results for the second quarter as well, with consolidated gold output of 85,100 ounces exceeding consensus of 73,700 ounces. Gold production at Chelopech was very strong with 52,600 ounces benefiting from higher grades and improved recoveries. Performance remained solid at Ada Tepe. Dundee has produced 155,400 ounces and puts the company in good shape to aim for the higher end of the guidance range.

Weaknesses

The worst performing precious metal for the week was palladium, down 6.45% as UBS reported substitution with cheaper platinum is already taking place in auto-catalysts, becoming more pronounced in 2022. New Gold reported that weaker performance was achieved at Rainy River due to lower grades—stronger Rainy River second-half results are expected, but the mine is reportedly now on track to achieve the low end of guidance.

Fiore Gold released production for the three months ended June 30 of 11,800 ounces, slightly below estimate of 12,400 ounces from Stifel, but up 8% from the second quarter. The miss against Stifel’s numbers was driven by lower tons stacked and lower grade. The company ended the quarter with a cash balance of $18.5 million, slightly below anticipated $20.4 million.

Pure Gold announced second quarter production results. Second quarter (pre-commercial) gold production of 6,300 ounces was 40% below the 10,400-ounce forecast. Average daily mill throughput in the quarter of 509 tons per day was below the average 538 tons per day delivered in the first quarter.

Opportunities

According to the CEO of Barrick Gold, Mark Bristow, due to an aggressive near-mine exploration program, Kibali was continuing to replace its reserves faster than it was mining them, and now has a resource base that is approaching the 2013 levels when the mine first went into production. The company also said that significant exploration successes could extend the Tongon gold mine’s life. Bristow said 10 years after it went into production Tongon could get a new lease on life thanks to promising results from near-mine exploration campaigns designed to replace the mine’s depleted reserves.

AngloGold Ashanti is pleased to announce that a non-binding proposal has been submitted to the Board of Directors of Corvus Gold Inc. under which its direct wholly owned subsidiary, AngloGold Ashanti Holdings plc, would be willing to acquire for cash all the issued and outstanding common shares of Corvus. AngloGold Ashanti currently holds a 19.5% indirect interest in Corvus.

Aya Gold & Silver reported second quarter production from Zgounder of 439,100 ounces handily beating aggressive estimates of 401,700 ounces due to higher throughput and head grade. This puts the mine on track for 1.66 million ounces in 2021, well above guidance of 1.2 million ounces.

Threats

Jefferies is cautious on mining equities in the near-term as investors’ sentiment has turned more negative on the sector. The group said, “we attribute the weakness to the delta variant of coronavirus and associated lockdowns, China tightening, and fears of weaker demand as some believe global growth has peaked.”

On July 15, Barrick reported that an incident occurred at its Hemlo mine on the evening of July 14, resulting in the death of a contractor. Hemlo operations are suspended, and an investigation is underway.

Sibanye Stillwater Ltd. may wind down its three South African gold mines in the next decade or so as it becomes harder to exploit aging assets in an industry that was once the world’s largest. Sibanye, which was spun off from Gold Fields’ oldest South African mines in 2013, employs about one-third of the roughly 93,000 workers in the nation’s gold industry. Sibanye is actively seeking gold acquisitions, likely in North America.

By Frank E. Holmes

Contributing to kitco.com
 

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Gold fights against the currents of the dollar, rising yields, equities, and crypto

Gold fights against the currents of the dollar, rising yields, equities, and crypto

Gold is undoubtedly swimming against strong currents, which are curtailing any move to the upside. Recently it has been struggling successfully to stay above $1800 per ounce. On Monday as well as today, gold prices came close to testing the 100-day moving average, which is currently at $1792.10, and on both occasions closed just above $1800.

In the case of today’s intraday low of $1794.30 for gold futures, it was dollar strength in trading overseas last night that took prices to that low. However, the dollar closed lower in New York trading, which resulted in gold moving back above $1800. As of 5:30 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active August 2021 Comex contract is fixed at $1803.80, which is a net decline of $7.50. Concurrently the dollar index has come off of the highs of 93.19 achieved last night and is currently trading at 92.84, which is a net decline of -0.015%.

Yields on the 10-year Treasury Note gained 0.0710 or 5.87% and is currently fixed at 1.28%, creating another strong current that is curtailing any upside movement in gold.
 

There is also a case to be made that investment dollars today were flowing into U.S. equities markets. The S&P 500 gained 0.82%, the Dow gained 0.83%, and the NASDAQ composite gained 0.92% in trading today.

 

Cryptocurrencies also showed significant gains today, with Bitcoin Futures gaining 7.07% and Ethereum gaining 8.85%.
 

Investors always look to have their money in asset classes that will return the greatest results. With strong U.S. equities markets and the potential for cryptocurrencies to have found tentative support, it makes it more difficult for gold prices to rise.

 

Market participants await the FOMC conclusion meeting on July 28
 

The future direction of gold prices could certainly be influenced by the upcoming FOMC meeting, which begins on July 27 and concludes the following day when a statement is released, and Chairman Powell has a press conference. The statement, along with Chairman Powell’s press conference, will reveal any change in their current monetary policy.
 

Market participants are also waiting for any announcement by the European Central Bank on Thursday. According to an article by James Hyerczyk written in FX Empire said, “Gold futures are edging lower on Wednesday, pressured by a firmer U.S. Dollar ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) announcements on Thursday, another rise in U.S. Treasury yields and increasing demand for riskier assets with U.S. equity markets hovering slightly below record highs. Despite having its gains capped, the market appears to be underpinned by some inflows into the safe-haven metal due to concerns over a surge in COVID-19 cases.”
 

The fact that gold remains above $1800 is bullish. Especially as we have seen the dollar move higher, yields in 10-year notes and U.S. equities markets both exhibiting gains.

 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

 

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Gold bounces back from yesterday’s lows leading into the European open

Gold bounces back from yesterday's lows leading into the European open

Gold bounced back from the lows of $1795.14/oz seen yesterday to trade at $1817.20/oz leading into the European session. Silver has not recovered in the same fashion as its precious metal counterpart and trades flat at $25.15/oz. In the rest of the commodities complex, after a tough session yesterday, copper has moved 0.69% higher and spot WTI has pushed up a tiny bit after a dramatic -6.80% fall following the OPEC+ decision to increase production.

Risk sentiment was once again poor in the Asia Pac area. The Nikkei 225 (-0.94%), ASX (-0.46%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.11%) all closed lower overnight. Futures in Europe are pointing to a positive cash open this morning.

In the FX markets, the dollar index broke the previous wave high to trade 0.13% higher overnight. The biggest loser was NZD/USD which fell -0.66%. In the crypto space, bitcoin has dipped below $30k again to trade at $29,676 at the start of the session.

Looking at the news from overnight, The PBOC held the 1 and 5-year rates steady today for the 15th month in a row. 1-year 3.85% (as expected) & 5-year 4.65% (as expected).

The New Jersey Attorney General is preparing an order against the bitcoin platform BlockFi.

Japan National Headline CPI for June 2021: 0.2% y/y (vs. expected -0.1%).

The U.S. has formally accused China hackers of a cyberattack on Microsoft.

The U.S. CDC raised the U.K. to its highest risk level and urged Americans not to travel to Britain.

U.S. Senate leader Schumer said he will put forward a motion to vote on the $1.2trl infrastructure bill on Wednesday.

Incoming BoE member Mann said the BoE must not be premature with the tightening of monetary policy.

In Australia, the RBA said they remain committed to maintaining a highly supportive monetary policy and the central bank will not raise the cash rate until inflation is above the 2-3% target range.

U.S. President Biden said temporary price rises (inflation) were expected and it is also expected to be transitory.

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include U.S. building permits and the earnings season continues. Anglo American are a big highlight from the miners.

 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

 

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Is the U.S. dollar doomed?

Is the U.S. dollar doomed?

The inflation debate is back in the headlines, but gold is trading down nearly 1% on Friday. Analysts are keeping a close eye on the U.S. dollar and the bond market for clues as to where gold might head next.
 

Here's a look at Kitco's top three stories of the week:

1. Hot inflation and better-than-expected retail numbers.

2. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testifies before Congress.

3. Firmer USD weighs on gold, but the dollar is 'doomed' long-term, says DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach.

 

By Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

 

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Don’t chase gold and silver at these levels but buy the dips – Carley Garner

Don't chase gold and silver at these levels but buy the dips – Carley Garner

Although the first quarter should represent the low in precious metals, one market strategist warns investors not to chase the market at current levels.

In an interview with Kitco News, Carley Garner, co-founder of the brokerage firm DeCarley Trading, said that she has been bullish on gold since March and is expecting prices to end the year much higher.

However, she added that there is a risk the precious metal could see one more washout before it is ready to rally higher.

"There's some pretty heavy resistance around $1,850. So, if you're trying to buy around $1830, it's a little bit dangerous," she said. "You want to make sure you have some hedges in place."

Garner added that she likes the idea of buying on dips and said there is the possibility gold retests support just below $1,800 an ounce.

Not only is the gold market finding strong fundamental support in a low interest rate environment, but Garner said that the precious metal is also entering a positive seasonal period.

"Late summer, early fall is usually a really good time of year for gold and silver," she said.

Looking at gold's fundamentals, Garner said that she doesn't expect the inflation threat to provide much more support for gold, pointing to the drop in raw commodity prices like the one in lumber prices. The lumber market has given back its gains after seeing a historic rally in the first half of the year. Garner said that she sees similar patterns across a broad spectrum of commodities from hog futures to copper.

However, Garner said that weak commodity prices raise the specter of deflation or even stagflation instead of an inflation threat. It is unlikely that the Federal Reserve will move quickly to tighten its monetary policy in this environment, she added.

Garner said that she expects the deflation threat to reveal itself later in the year as she expects oil prices to fall back to $50 a barrel. She explained that U.S. shale producers have been reluctant to increase oil production; however, with oil now trading above $70 a barrel, crude oil supply is starting to pick up again.

"Higher prices cure higher prices," she said. "Crude oil is going to be the last one to crash. And that's the one thing that really, when we talk about inflation, really hurts everybody."

Looking at gold prices, Garner said that if gold prices can push back to $1,900 an ounce by the end of the summer, then she would expect to see the yellow metal back at $2,000 an ounce by year-end.

Garner noted that once gold finds new momentum, the market is ripe to attract new speculative interest.

"A lot of speculators are net long, but they're holding very small positions based on what we've seen as a historically. So a lot of those people got out of gold at the start of the year have plenty of ammo to put it back to work as things start moving the right way," she said.

For silver, Garner said that the metal has been extremely quiet; however, like gold, she expects to see higher prices by year-end.

"Similar to silver, I don't think we can rule out one more test of the lows, but ultimately, I think we're going to see somewhere between $29 and $31 by the end of the year," she said.
 

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

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Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Gold holds steady above $1800 but fails to truly break out to higher prices

Gold holds steady above $1800 but fails to truly break out to higher prices

Continued pressure from exceedingly strong U.S. equities markets coupled with dollar strength has curtailed any continuation of the momentum created from the most recent rally. Gold hit an intraday low on June 29 of approximately $1750 and then traded higher for the next five consecutive trading days. This took gold futures above their 100-day moving average, which is currently fixed at $1789.80, before forming a base and trading sideways just above $1800 per ounce.

As of 4:50 PM EST gold futures basis, the most active Comex contract is currently down four dollars at $1806 per ounce. This is a net change of – 0.22%. Dollar strength was a partial contributor to today's modest decline. The dollar index is currently up +0.13%, a gain of 12 points, and fixed at 92.235. This indicates that roughly half of today's price decline in gold can be attributed to dollar strength. However, it was the continuation of an exceptionally strong U.S. equities market that pulled investment capital away from the safe-haven asset and into the risk-on asset class.

The NASDAQ composite gained 31 points in trading today and closed at 14,733.2397, which is a new record high. The S&P 500 also hit a new record high and, after gaining 15.08 points, closed at 4384.63. Lastly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 126.02 points and closed at 34,996.18. This was the highest close on record, although it hit an intraday high on May 10, just above that price point.

Gold has traded from $1750 per ounce to an intraday high last Thursday of $1819. Some analysts believe that this most recent pullback is simply profit-taking following the most recent run-up in gold of approximately $70.

The key elements that market participants are focusing upon are the direction of interest rates as well as any potential retracement from recent gains in the U.S. equities markets. The U.S. 10-year notes have seen diminishing yields which are currently fixed at 1.373%, and the 30-year Treasury bond fixed at 2.002%. Current yields are at their lowest point since February of this year.

In an exclusive interview today with Bloomberg news, the European Central Bank President, Christine Lagarde, was asked if it was time to begin to look at rolling back some of the recent accommodative monetary policies, in which she quickly answered, "This is not the time to consider that."

However, it was reported by Reuters today that the European Central Bank will chart a new policy path at its next meeting to reflect its change in strategy and how to show it is serious about reviving inflation. Last week the ECB announced a new strategy similar to that of the Federal Reserve to tolerate letting inflation run hotter above its 2% goal when interest rates are near zero as they are now.

Reuters reported that "This is meant to reassure investors that policy will not be tightened prematurely and cement their expectations about price growth, which has lagged below the ECB's target for most of the past decade."

The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak to Congress this week with an update on the Fed's current monetary policy. According to CNBC, a "part of his task will be selling the Fed's still easy policies in the wake of a strong economy and surging inflation." Powell continues to be steadfast that the current accommodative monetary policy will remain fully intact until "substantial further progress" is made towards the Fed employment and inflation goals.

Chairman Powell's difficult task will be to convince Congress that it is necessary to maintain its current dovish monetary policy in light of the fact that U.S. equities continue to rise and GDP continues to strengthen. With inflationary pressures at the highest level they have been at in eight years and a surge in housing prices, this could be a hard sell at best.

The fact that both the ECB and the Federal Reserve have collectively continued to promote their accommodative stance could be the underlying impetus needed to move gold to higher pricing.
 

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Gold and silver trade lower leading into the European open

Gold and silver trade lower leading into the European open

Gold and silver are leading into the first day of the trading week in the red. After closing 1.15% higher last week the yellow metal has lost nearly half a percent to trade at the psychological $1800/oz level once again. Silver has just dipped under the $26./oz mark and the support to watch is holding at $$25.51/oz. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper is down -0.75% and spot WTI is also -0.56% in the red.

Looking at the risk sentiment from overnight, the Nikkei 225 (2.25%), ASX (0.83%) and Shanghai Composite (0.70%) all closed positive leading into the European open (Much of the positive price action could come due to the Chinese RRR rate cut on Friday). Dax and FTSE futures are actually pointing towards a slightly negative open.

In FX markets, the dollar index has moved 0.11% higher and the biggest mover overnight is USD/CAD which trades 0.21% in the black. In general commodities currencies have struggled. Bitcoin is trading marginally higher at $34,341.

Looking at some of the main stories from the weekend and overnight, the Australian regulator APRA says banks must have a plan to deal with negative interest rates by April 2022.

There were reports that noted the China state financial media said that there could be more support for the economy incoming.

ECB head Lagarde says end of PEPP may be followed by a new format of support.

Sticking with the ECB, Schnabel said she does not expect that inflation will get 'excessively high'.

Chinese military confirmed that a U.S. warship unlawfully entered the South China sea.
 

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include comments from Fed's Williams, Kashkari and ECB's de Guindos. There is no real tier one data to look out for.
 

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Is Bitcoin evolving into a universal, all-use currency? Lyn Alden on reaching ‘steady state’ growth

Is Bitcoin evolving into a universal, all-use currency? Lyn Alden on reaching 'steady state' growth

Bitcoin is fast emerging as a viable form of payment, thanks to improvements in its transaction speeds and reductions in costs from layer 2 payment protocols like Lightning Network, but its utility as a currency makes more sense in some situations than others, said Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy.

El Salvador has recently made Bitcoin legal tender, and in a country where phones are more ubiquitous than bank accounts, transactions may be made easier in some cases with this law.

“The challenging thing there is that because they’re underbanked, it’s sometimes ironically easier to get a cheap smartphone than they can get a bank account, so when you have a free Bitcoin wallet on a cheap cell phone, that actually can make transacting easier in some cases,” Alden told David Lin, anchor for Kitco News. “There is volatility risk, but a lot of them can convert back to dollars if they decide they don’t want to hold large amounts of Bitcoin.”

Consumers should be aware to take on debt in Bitcoin, as generally speaking, any form of debt that is in a different currency than the source of income is risky if the value of the debt rises unexpectedly, Alden said.

Compared to gold, Bitcoin is better for digital transactions, ecommerce, and long-distance money transfers of large quantities, whereas gold would be one of he “worst ways” to transact in any of those domains.

However, gold does enjoy lower volatility, and has low to negligible transaction costs if the transaction is done in person and the vendor accepts gold as a form of payment.

“I like to view Bitcoin as an emergent thing. It’s not something that’s reached its steady state yet,” she said. “Will it go up to $5 or $10 trillion or will it settle down for a while, and so it’s not reached a steady state in the same way that gold or dollars generally have.”

For Alden’s outlook on Bitcoin and gold prices, watch the video above. Follow David Lin on Twitter: @davidlin_TV (https://twitter.com/davidlin_TV).
 

By David Lin

For Kitco News

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

David

Gold and silver trade lower heading into the European session

Gold and silver trade lower heading into the European session

After a promising start to the U.S. session yesterday gold (-0.24%) ended up closing -0.09% lower and that bearishness has continued today. It was a similar story for silver which now trades at $25.77/oz down 0.48% leading into the European session. In the rest of the commodities complex, copper is 0.19% in the black and spot WTI is flat.
 

Indices in the Asia Pac area followed the downbeat tone in Europe and the U.S. overnight. The Nikkei 225 (-0.63%), ASX (-0.93%) and Shanghai Composite (-0.04%) all closed lower. Having said that, futures are pointing towards a positive cash open in Europe.

In FX markets, the dollar index has moved 0.18% higher and the biggest mover overnight is USD/JPY which jumped 0.32% higher retracing some of yesterday's losses. In the crypto space, bitcoin is trading just under flat at $32,845.

Looking at some of the news from overnight, Fed's Daly says It would be premature to say that we've achieved victory against the pandemic.

There were reports last night that the U.S. is to add more Chinese firms to the economic blacklist regarding human rights violations.

COVID-19 cases climb to a new record day in South Korea and the government called an emergency meeting.

Australia to triple its access to Pfizer Covid-19 vaccines to 1m doses/week from July 19.

Pfizer says a third shot of its vaccine is even more helpful in combatting COVID-19

ECB sources said that policymakers failed to agree on the new policy guidance and it will be revisited on 22nd July.

 

COMEX copper futures maintenance margins lowered by 9.1% to USD 6,000/contract for July.

COMEX 5000 silver futures initial margins for speculators lowered by 10% to USD 14,850/contract.

China inflation figures for June. CPI 1.1% y/y (expected 1.3%), PPI 8.8% y/y (expected 8.8%).

UK May monthly GDP +0.8% vs +1.5% m/m expected.

Looking ahead to the rest of the session highlights include Candian employment change, ECB minutes and comments from BoE's Baliey and ECB's Lagarde.

By Rajan Dhall

For Kitco News
 

Kinesis Money the cheapest place to buy/sell Gold and Silver with Free secure storage

 

David