Gold and silver need more than a short squeeze
Precious metal analysts have been warning investors for a few weeks now that a sharp downtrend through the summer pushed gold and silver into oversold territory. Bearish sentiment in the marketplace is at its highest level in years, and both precious metals were ripe for a short squeeze.
Those forecasts proved to be correct, with silver seeing, at its peak, a 12% gain this week, as prices pushed above $21 an ounce. Meanwhile, the gold market saw a 4% rally as prices drove above $1,730 an ounce.
However, heading into the weekend, momentum is starting to wane as gold ends the week testing support at $1,700 an ounce and silver tries to hold on to $20. While this past week's rally has been a welcome move for some, analysts note that the market still lacks a critical ingredient: bullish investors.
Ultimately, the gold and silver market lacks solid bullish conviction to see a sustained rally for now. Many investors continue to sit on the sidelines as the Federal Reserve and the U.S. dollar dominate financial markets.
Despite the growing threat of a severe global recession, the Federal Reserve continues to aggressively raise interest rates, which is supporting the U.S. dollar at its highest level in 20 years. At the same time, bond yields are near 12-year highs. This is not a positive environment for gold.
These headwinds for gold are not expected to ease anytime soon. Even some market heavyweights are starting to embrace the idea of a strong U.S. dollar. Ray Dalio made headlines this week, announcing on Twitter that he no longer thinks cash is trash, a position he has held for a few years.
"The facts have changed and I've changed my mind about cash as an asset: I no longer think cash is trash," wrote Dalio. The following day Dalio announced that he would step down as Bridgewater's co-CIO
Last month, Dalio said that he expects the Federal Reserve to push interest rates to 4.5%, which will cause the S&P 500 to fall another 20%. In the current environment, the U.S. dollar is seen as the safest asset right now.
There is a growing divergence between physical gold and the paper market – WisdomTree
The reality is that gold continues to face a difficult environment and the volatility we have seen this week can frustrate many investors; however, one recurring message we keep hearing from market analysts is that investors need to look past this volatility and keep their eye on the larger picture.
The Federal Reserve is maintaining its aggressive monetary policy action in a vacuum. They are focusing on the domestic labor market and ignoring the impact that the U.S. dollar is having on the global economy.
While the U.S. economy has remained relatively resilient, the global marketplace is at a breaking point. Monday, the United Nations even stepped into the debate and warned that central bank rate hikes will push the global economy, particularly emerging nations, into a recession.
In its latest economic projections, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development lowered its economic growth forecasts seeing global GDP expanding 2.5% this year, down from its previous estimate of 2.6%. At the same time, global growth is expected to slow to 2.2% in 2023.
The advice I am hearing from market analysts is that even as this short squeeze fails, the current price still represents long-term value.
By Neils Christensen
For Kitco News
Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips
David