Gold price is stuck in neutral, but that is its strength now

Although gold is struggling to attract bullish momentum, analysts note that its strength now relies on how much support is in the marketplace, even as speculative interest starts to drop.

In its latest trade data, Commodity Futures Trading Commission noted that speculative interest in the gold market dropped to its lowest level in three months as investors ditched their bullish bets and increased their bearish positioning.

The CFTC's disaggregated Commitments of Traders report for the week ending June 13 showed money managers dropped their speculative gross long positions in Comex gold futures by 10,473 contracts to 110,512. At the same time, short positions rose by 8,312 contracts to 35,869.

The gold market is now net long by 74,643 contracts, dropping to its lowest point since March 14. At the same time, the precious metal saw its biggest drop in gross bullish positioning since early February. During the survey period, gold prices traded in a tight range, with support around $1,950 and resistance around $1,980 an ounce

The decline in speculative positioning came after weeks of a relatively stable trading environment. According to some analysts, the shift in the gold market was not surprising as investors and hedge funds squared their positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision.

Last week the Federal Reserve left the interest rate unchanged but maintained its hawkish bias and signaled that it sees potentially two more rate hikes this year. The hawkish pause caused gold prices to drop to a three-month low, testing support at $1,930.

However, the gold market did not stay down for very long, as it was back in its previous $30 trading range before the end of the week. Analysts have noted that the price action shows there is still plenty of interest in gold; however, investors are being more tactical as they build a position.

"We have established that there is still a strong bid in the gold market," said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, in a recent interview with Kitco News. "But we just don't have a trigger for a bigger rally to $2,000. I think we need to get back above $1,985ish before some bullish conviction returns to gold."

Commodity analysts at TD Securities said that gold remains supported as the market is starting to doubt the Federal Reserve's optimistic outlook on rate hikes. The analysts said that it's more likely the central bank's next move will be to cut rates.

"While gold initially traded lower, the market is looking past the Fed messaging and the yellow metal was little changed after the rate decision. But since the spread of members' dots is so wide, ranging from 3.625% – 5.875% for next year, the median estimate is not all that relevant as far as we are concerned and future rate decisions will very much be driven by inflation and economic data," the analysts said. "We suspect that data and inflation will weaken in the not-too-distant future, with the Fed likely lowering rates before hitting its inflation target. As such, we expect gold to do quite well in the months ahead.

In a comment on Twitter, Fred Hickey, creator of the High-Tech Strategist investment newsletter, noted that gold's net positioning has dropped 20% from the previous week; however, gold prices were virtually unchanged.

He added that the selling pressure comes at the start of gold's seasonal weak period, which he noted remains the perfect buying opportunity.

"Bears/computers tried to smash gold following Wed. FOMC, & extremely "hawkish" commentary & build-in of 2 more rate hikes, but then gold put in an impressive reversal to upside (even surprised me). Now mid-June – start of seasonally best time to buy gold (mid-June to early-July).

While investors are reluctant to take a bullish position in gold, hedge funds are starting to test the waters in the silver market for the second consecutive week.

The disaggregated report showed that money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex silver futures rose by 1,442 contracts to 38,968. At the same time, short positions fell by 1,560 contracts to 25,971.

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Silver's net length now stands at 12,997 contracts, up 30% from the previous week. During the survey period, silver prices continued to trade on either side of $24 an ounce.

According to some analysts, silver is outperforming gold in the near term as optimism picks up regarding the global economy. Last week the Federal Reserve increased its forecast for 2023 Gross Domestic Product; it now sees the economy growing 1% this year, up from the previous forecast of 0.4%.

Optimism over the global economy can be seen in base metals as copper sees a surge in short covering, pushing to a one-month high.

Copper's disaggregated report showed money-managed speculative gross long positions in Comex high-grade copper futures rose by 5,653 contracts to 48,023. At the same time, short positions fell by 12,224 contracts to 43,023.

After a month stuck in a net short position, the global copper market is now back in bullish territory with a speculative net long of 5,600 contracts.

During the survey period, copper prices pushed back above $3.80 per pound.

Although copper has seen a significant bounce off last month's lows, analysts at TD Securities said that the rally could be running out of momentum.

"We see risks that the rally in the red metal may now be running on fumes. After all, we see few risks of subsequent CTA buying activity until prices break the $8900/t mark, whereas discretionary traders are running out of dry-powder for short-covering," the analysts said. "Chinese officials appear to have little appetite for a large-scale stimulus package, suggesting that participants could be in for an unpleasant surprise. In turn, without a game-changing stimulus package announcement, the set-up for a consolidation in copper markets is firming."

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold's new price base keeps record highs within reach, says VanEck

Gold has formed a new base at the $1,900 an ounce level, and if that continues to hold, record highs  will be within reach, according to VanEck's latest analysis.

Gold has just spent the most time above $1,900 an ounce than ever before, forming a new base and averaging $1,933 per ounce year to date, said VanEck's deputy portfolio manager Imaru Casanova.

"Gold is showing resilience despite a strong stock market and recent U.S. dollar strength," Casanova wrote in a report Thursday. "Gold bullion exchanged traded products outflows have subsided this year, with net inflows, albeit small, resulting in a 0.38% increase in holdings year to date.

The all-time highs are within reach for gold as the Federal Reserve halts its most aggressive tightening cycle in decades.

"The $2,075 per ounce all-time high seems well within reach, in our view," Casanova said. "We see a macro backdrop that continues to be supportive of gold in the longer term."

As the Fed kept rates unchanged in a range of 5% to 5.25% following ten consecutive increases, central bank Chair Jerome Powell confirmed Wednesday that the median dot plot saw at least two more 25-bps rate hikes this year. But the market remained unconvinced, pricing in only one rate hike in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool

May was a promising month for gold as the metal attempted to test record highs, but market optimism ended up weighing on sentiment. Since then, gold has been resilient, holding above $1,950 an ounce. At the time of writing, August Comex gold futures were trading at $1,970.10, flat on the day.

"Expectations that this past rate hike may be the last one in this tightening cycle supported gold in early May," Casanova wrote. "However, through most of the month, the U.S. dollar gained and gold fell as the narrative shifted to a more hawkish view and the probability of further rate hikes in 2023 increased."

In the meantime, miners significantly underperformed gold last month, with the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) and the MVIS Global Juniors Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) down 8.6% and 7.3%, respectively.

"The magnitude of the underperformance is a bit surprising to us … May was a relatively good month for gold equities on the news front, with companies reporting first-quarter results that were, generally, better than expected," the report said. "We view this reaction as overdone and further contributing to the current valuation gap between gold and gold equities."

The sector's overall health looks solid, with gold producers remaining committed to disciplined capital allocation, growth, shareholder returns, profitability, and healthy balance sheets, the report said.

"They are also responsible operators, running sustainable businesses aiming to deliver benefits to all stakeholders while carefully managing the impact on the environment," Casanova wrote. "A re-rating of the gold mining equities from historically low valuations at present is well supported by the industry's strong fundamentals."

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

A big move in gold price is coming after weeks of neutral stance – analysts

The gold market has been steady so far in June, trading between $1,940 and just under $2,000 an ounce. But analysts warn that after weeks of sideways price action, gold is ready for a more significant move.

The caveat is it could be in either direction, Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman told Kitco News. "Gold has traded sideways long enough that we are due for a bigger move one direction or the other — retesting the $1,880 level or getting back up to around $2,000," Millman said.

The Fed confused the markets Wednesday with a "hawkish pause" and a promise of two more rate hikes.

"What the Fed did was neutral for gold. A pause is good for gold. But it was the most hawkish pause we could have gotten. And that is why gold has traded sideways," Millman explained.

Gold is holding up well in the face of the Fed's warning of two more rate hikes, OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News.

"The Fed locked themselves into a hold since they signaled they were going to do that before the meeting," said Moya. "There was a communication mistake by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in weeks leading up to this decision. Otherwise, data supported the hike."

At the press conference, Powell did not commit to a rate hike in July, stating that the U.S. central bank will remain data-dependent, added Moya.

"Fed Chair Powell is trying to keep optionality on the table. There's a chance we could have continued softer inflation prints. He doesn't want to lock himself in," he said. "That's why gold is not at $1,900. If the Fed's dot plot was confirmed at the press conference, gold would be trading at $1,900."

At the time of writing, August Comex gold futures were trading at $1,968.20, down 0.13% on the day and largely flat on the week.

Markets are currently pricing in one more rate hike in July only. If that changes, gold will react, the analysts said.

In the meantime, gold is paying close attention to macro releases and the U.S. dollar. Also, precious metals investors are monitoring central bank gold buying activity, which has slowed in the second quarter.

"Even though it slowed down quite a bit," said Millman. "The World Gold Council survey said that one in four central banks planned to continue to buy gold. They buy in large volumes, and gold will respond to what central banks are doing."

 

Mixed signals and gold's price direction

There is still a risk of a significant selloff in the gold market because that would be symmetrical to what happened over the past two years when gold reached $2,000 an ounce, Millman pointed out. "The next most likely move for gold is lower," he said.

Markets are eyeing Powell's two-day testimony before the House and Senate next week, a lineup for Fed speakers, and more macro releases.

"Gold is going to be facing a lot of mixed signals next week," said Moya. "Fed speakers, flash PMIs, and more easing from China (commercial banks are cutting rates). In theory, we could still see risk appetite holding in there, which will keep gold choppy."

With the Fed largely data-driven into the July meeting, macro releases could become big market movers.

"Gold pricing is still searching for confirmation that the Fed is really done and/or a US$-negative catalyst," said MKS PAMP head of metals strategy Nicky Shiels. "Data will become more sensitive and important into a July meeting where a hike is pretty much guaranteed."

Gold's technical trading is also essential to monitor. The longer the precious metal remains steady in the face of this hawkish pressure, the more likely prices will rally, noted Shiels.

"On the surface, it's a bearish precious outcome, but the longer gold can't go down, [it] must go up. The thinking is that gold prices will read through their hawkish rhetoric/talk, and at the core is, the Fed has paused (and can pause again) = therefore, they're done," she said.

 

Data next week

Tuesday: U.S. building permits and housing starts,

Wednesday: Fed Chair Powell testifies

Thursday: Bank of England rate decision, Fed Chair Powell testifies, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. existing home sales

Friday: U.S. manufacturing PMI

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold breaks below its 100-day moving average but recovers as the dollar tanks

Commentaries & ViewsShare this article:

Gold futures basis the most active August Comex contract traded below its 100-day simple moving average which is currently at $1950.70 after trading to an intraday low of $1936.10. However, as of 4:34 PM EDT, gold futures are trading just off the high of $1972.80 and are fixed at $1970.40.

On May 17, gold prices broke below their 50-day moving average for the first time since pricing moved above it on March 13. The rally that occurred in March began in November 2022 when gold had hit a triple bottom just above $1620. The first leg of this rally would take gold to just below $1980 before entering a corrective period which took gold pricing to approximately $1810. On March 13 gold traded back above its 50-day moving average on its way to this year’s highest value just above $2080 in May. After hitting the highest value of the year gold began its current correction that took gold to its current price as seen in the chart below.

That being said, today’s story is not so much about gold closing fractionally higher and back above its 100-day moving average but rather the dollar's strong devaluation and gold’s tepid response. If not for the decline in the dollar index today gold most certainly would have closed strongly in the negative. The dollar declined by 0.77% taking the dollar index to 102.12. Gold futures only gained 0.08% in trading today and when compared to the dollar's decline of 0.77% it indicates that traders were selling gold futures.

The same can be seen in the pricing of spot gold which increased by $16 per ounce according to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX). On closer inspection dollar strength added $17.10 per ounce, and normal trading resulted in a price decline of– $1.10.

The chart above is a long-term daily Japanese candlestick chart of the dollar index. It clearly illustrates how strong selling pressure has been taking the dollar index (DX) from a high above 114 in September of last year to lows just above 100.50 in February. Each of the last two rallies has had lower highs than the previous. Most importantly today’s strong price decline took the dollar index below both its 100 and 50-day moving averages.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold, silver sell off as FOMC conclusion looms

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday dealings Tuesday, losing initial gains that were seen following a U.S. inflation report that came in very close to market expectations. Position evening ahead of Wednesday afternoon’s FOMC meeting conclusion is featured. Futures traders with weak long positions were also featured sellers. A lower U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices did limit the downside in gold and silver today. August gold was last down $10.70 at $1,959.00 and July silver was down $0.20 at $23.85.

Today’s U.S. consumer price index report for May showed a rise of 4.0%, year-on-year, the same as in the April report and right in line with market expectations. Other internals of the CPI report also came in about as expected. The marketplace is a bit upbeat on the CPI numbers, as they were not a negative surprise on the U.S. inflation front. Wednesday morning’s U.S. producer price index report for May is seen down 0.1%, month-on-month.

Global stock markets were mostly higher overnight. U.S. stock indexes are higher at midday.

In overnight news, China’s central bank eased its monetary policy by trimming a key lending rate. The central bank cut its seven-day reverse repurchase operations to 1.9% from 2.0%. This latest move is a further attempt by the Chinese government to boost Chinese economic growth, which is slowing.

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The U.S. data point of the week is the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. A majority of the marketplace still thinks the Fed will pause in its interest-rate-tightening cycle. Today’s as-expected CPI report falls into the camp of those expecting the Fed to pause at this week’s FOMC meeting.

Technically, the gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,949.60. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,987.80 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at the May low of $1,949.60 and then at $1,940.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing July futures prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $22.785. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $24.62 and then at $25.00. Next support is seen at $23.50 and then at $23.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold, silver down amid bearish outside markets; FOMC looms

Gold and silver prices are lower in midday U.S. trading Monday. A trio of bearish outside markets are pressuring the precious metals today: a firmer U.S. dollar index, solidly lower crude oil prices and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. The marketplace is a bit quieter just ahead of the U.S. central bank monetary policy meeting and key U.S. inflation reports. August gold was last down $7.80 at $1,969.30 and July silver was down $0.37 at $24.03.

The U.S. data point of the week is the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which begins Tuesday morning and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. A majority of the marketplace still thinks the Fed will pause in its interest-rate-tightening cycle. However, a stronger U.S. jobs report last Friday has bolstered those outliers who are thinking the Fed will make another rate hike this week.

Other important U.S. economic reports out this week include the consumer and producer price index reports for May on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. The CPI is forecast up 4.0%, year-on-year, while the PPI is seen down 0.1%, month-on-month.

Asian stock markets were mixed overnight and European stock indexes were mostly firmer. U.S. stock indexes are firmer at midday.

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The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and erased overnight losses. Nymex crude oil prices are solidly lower and trading around $67.75 a barrel. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.776%.

Technically, August gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage amid recent choppy trading. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,949.60. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $1,987.80 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,963.10 and then at last week’s low of $1,953.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

July silver futures prices hit a four-week high last Friday. The silver bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $22.785. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $24.395 and then at $24.75. Next support is seen at $23.75 and then at $23.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

July N.Y. copper closed down 355 points at 375.35 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today after hitting a four-week high last Friday. The copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the May low of 354.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 380.00 cents and then at last week’s high of 383.35 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 373.50 cents and then at last week’s low of 368.60 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold price going into Fed decision: selloff or test of $2k?

With Federal Reserve rate hike expectations see-sawing on mixed macro data, most analysts call for a pause in June but are not ruling out more rate hikes this summer. Here's what it means for gold.

The gold market is ending the week 0.4% higher after August Comex futures found solid support at the $1,960 an ounce level. However, analysts are less bullish on gold in the short term, citing risks of more Fed rate hikes and higher U.S. dollar weighing on the precious metal.

"Gold is vulnerable after trading in a fairly muted range," TD Securities senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali told Kitco News. "All eyes are on the rate decision. And the outlook implied by the stamens of economic projections."

 

The Fed decision

The FOMC June 13-14 meeting is important because of the rate decision, the updated economic projections, and the new dot plot, which will give some idea about the Fed's reaction function over the next few months.

The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged at 5.25% next week, letting the lag effects of monetary policy tightening from the last 15 months take effect. The CME FedWatch Tool is pricing in a 72% chance of a pause at the time of writing. If the Fed does pause, it would be the first 'on hold' decision since January 2022.

A pause would be bullish for the gold sector, OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News.

"For gold, we are going to see more optimism that the Fed is done," Moya said. "The Fed seems likely to pause their tightening cycle, and if the updated forecasts remain optimistic that inflation will get a lot closer to target, it could be good news for gold bulls. Gold volatility should be elevated as prices could break out of the $1,950 to $2,000 trading range."

On the other hand, any hawkish surprise could mean a steep selloff for gold, Ghali noted. "Recent positioning raised implications of a surprise hike for next week. And a cohort of money managers might be vulnerable to that hike. A break below $1,940 an ounce would be significant."

Markets are referring to a potential pause in June as a "hawkish skip," citing the Bank of Canada's decision to pause for two consecutive meetings in the spring and then revert to another rate hike at the June meeting.

"We expect the Fed to leave interest rates unchanged at next week's FOMC meeting but, in what could be characterized as a 'hawkish skip,' to signal via forward guidance that officials are minded to hike interest rates again, probably at the following meeting in late-July," said Capital Economics chief North America economist Paul Ashworth. "The recent resilience of employment and stickiness of core inflation will ensure that the Fed delivers that rate hike as planned next month."

All eyes are on next week's inflation numbers

The big macro event everyone is keeping a close eye on is the U.S. May CPI report, which will be released on Tuesday — one day before the Fed's rate announcement.

And some analysts see the Fed decision as hinging on that inflation report.

"Should core inflation come in at 0.5% month-on-month – or 0.6% rather than the 0.4% consensus expectation – then the odds would likely swing in favor of a hike on Wednesday, as the measure would be heading in completely the wrong direction," said ING chief international economist James Knightley.

 

Gold price levels to watch

The gold market has formed a bottom at the $1,950 an ounce level, which serves as a solid support, RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News.

"A lot depends on the dollar right now," Cholly said. "Gold will need something above $2,000 for the August contract to give more confidence."

For the summer months, gold could be in store for a slow downward move as investor appetite lacks conviction during a seasonally slow period for consumption, said Standard Chartered precious metals analyst Suki Cooper.

"The gold market is caught within a comfortable range, and while tail risks exist that could push prices higher, risks through to year-end are increasingly to the downside," Cooper said Friday. "We believe the floor is well supported; in turn, prices are more likely to drift lower than plummet."

Standard Chartered is projecting gold to average at $1,975 an ounce in Q2 and $1,925 in Q3.
 

Next week's data

Tuesday: U.S. CPI

Wednesday: Fed rate decision, PPI,

Thursday: ECB rate decision, U.S. retail sales, Philly Fed manufacturing index, U.S. jobless claims, U.S. industrial production, NY Empire State manufacturing index,

Friday: Michigan consumer sentiment

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Slight price rises in gold, silver as FOMC meeting looms

Gold and silver prices are slightly higher in quieter U.S. trading early Friday. It appears the precious metals are pausing ahead of a busy U.S. data week next week, including inflation reports and the FOMC meeting. August gold was last up $1.60 at $1,980.20 and July silver was up $0.097 at $24.445.

The marketplace is looking ahead to next week’s FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve, which begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday afternoon with a statement and press conference from Fed Chairman Powell. A majority of the marketplace thinks the Fed will pause in its interest-rate-tightening cycle. But now many market watchers think the U.S. central bank will follow the Bank of Canada’s recent moves. The BOC this week raised interest rates by 0.25% after a four-month pause. Also next week comes the consumer price index and producer price index, on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

Asian and European stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are pointed toward weaker openings when the New York day session begins.

In overnight news, China’s producer price index unexpectedly dropped sharply in May, at down 4.6%, year-on-year. That’s the biggest drop in seven years. China’s consumer price index rose 0.2%, year-on-year. This latest data from China is another clue that major central banks of the world are taming problematic inflation.

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The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. Nymex crude oil prices are near steady and trading around $71.25 a barrel. Crude prices briefly dropped sharply Thursday on reports the U.S. and Iran may be getting close to an agreement on its nuclear program that could prompt the lifting of oil sanctions on Iran. However, prices recovered as most traders doubt the U.S. and Iran can really come to terms on the matter. Meantime, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.755%.

There is no major U.S. economic data due for release Friday.

Technically, the gold futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in August futures above solid resistance at $2,000.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the May low of $1,949.60. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $1,986.50 and then at $2,000.00. First support is seen at $1,965.00 and then at the May low of $1,949.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The silver bulls have gained the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing July futures prices above solid technical resistance at $25.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the May low of $22.785. First resistance is seen at $24.75 and then at $25.00. Next support is seen at $24.12 and then at $24.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David