Bitcoin – Bears Fail to Take a Bite, as Bitcoin Holds onto $4,000

Bitcoin holds onto $4,000 levels through the early hours. The bulls will be targetting $4,200 levels, but resistance will be high at $4,100.

Bitcoin fell by 1.14% on Thursday. Reversing a 1.63% gain from Wednesday, Bitcoin ended the day at $4,008.8.

Following a relatively range-bound early part of the day, Bitcoin struck a mid-morning intraday high $4,145 before hitting reverse.

Breaking through the first major resistance level at $4,095.67 and second major resistance level at $4,136.33, Bitcoin broke through to $4,100 levels for the first time since 10th January.

The reversal saw Bitcoin slide to a late morning intraday low $3,918.5 before finding support. The sell-off saw Bitcoin fall through the first major support level at $3,988.67 before recovering.

A range-bound 2nd half of the day saw Bitcoin find plenty of support at sub-$4,000 to close out the day at $4,000 levels.

Elsewhere

Across the top 10 cryptos, it was a sea of red on the day. Leading the way down were Stellar’s Lumen and Litecoin. The pair fell by 5.36% and by 5.07% respectively.

While Bitcoin saw the most modest losses on the day, Tron’s TRX and Ethereum also fared relatively well under the selling pressure. Tron’s TRX ended the day with a 1.34% loss, while Ethereum dropped by 2%.

In spite of the day’s losses seen across the majors, it’s been a solid week. Leading the way is EOS, which has surged by 32.4%.

Other notable moves through the week include Binance, Bitcoin Cash ABC and Litecoin. The trio managed to see double-digit gains through to the end of Thursday.

For Bitcoin Cash, the market appears to have made up its mind. Bitcoin Cash SV fell back to the number 11 spot by market cap. With just a 2.39% rise for the current week, there may be more trouble ahead.

The news wires have been relatively quiet. Barring the odd bullish call from the likes of Elon Musk, a lack of negative news has supported the upward trend through February.

For the Bitcoin bulls, hopes of the SEC approving 3 Bitcoin ETF applications come off the back of some optimistic comments from VanEck in the week. The decision will be announced on the 3 applications within the next 45-days.

The timing of the SEC’s decision, assuming it’s a favorable outcome, could work out well for the Bitcoin bulls. The current market momentum will need to be maintained to support more significant inflows. Bitcoin is up by 14.4% in February. A number of daily rallies delivered the much-needed boost to reverse January’s losses.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was up by 0.38% to $4,024.2. A relatively range bound start to the day saw Bitcoin rise from a morning low $4,005.9 to a morning high $4,037.5 before easing back. The day’s major support and resistance levels were left untested through the early hours.

 

For the day ahead

A hold onto $4,020 levels through the morning would support a move through the morning high to bring $4,100 levels into play before any pullback. A breakthrough to $4,100 levels would bring the first major resistance level at $4,129.7 into play before any pullback. We would expect Bitcoin to fall short of $4,200 levels on the day. Thursday’s high $4,145 and the day’s first major resistance level will likely peg Bitcoin back from a breakout from $4,100 levels.

Failure to hold onto $4,020 levels could see Bitcoin hit reverse later in the day. A fall through the morning low to sub-$4,000 levels could see Bitcoin call on support at the first major support level at $3,903.2 before any recovery.

We would expect Bitcoin to steer clear of sub-$3,900 support levels on the day.

 

Bob Mason

1 hour ago (Feb 22, 2019 4:27 AM GMT)

David

Bitcoin and BTC Futures Analysis – January 2019 CryptoCompare Exchange Review

 

The January Exchange Review focuses on analyses that relate to exchange volumes, and includes an analysis of the highest volume producing jurisdictions, as well as market segmentation by exchange fee model.

We also evaluate how spot volumes vs futures volumes have developed historically to date, including both crypto exchange (BitMEX and BitflyerFX) and traditional exchange (CBOE and CME) futures volumes. Finally, we conduct an analysis of bitcoin trading into various fiats and stablecoins, as well as an overview of how exchange web traffic has changed over the previous few months.

Country Analysis

Maltese-registered exchanges represented the majority of trading volume, followed by those legally registered in Hong Kong and Samoa. Monthly trading volume from Maltese-registered exchanges dropped 17% since December, while that of Hong Kong and Samoa-registered exchanges decreased by 5.5% and increased by 9% respectively.

Predominant Fee Type

Exchanges that charge taker fees represented 84% of total exchange volume in January, while those that implement trans-fee mining (TFM) represent 15%. Fee-charging exchanges traded a total of 141 billion USD in January, while those that implement TFM traded 25 billion USD. The remaining volume represented trading by exchanges that charge no trading fees, totalling 2.8 billion USD.

Futures Trading

The proportion of futures trading volume decreased from 28% in December to 24% in January. bitFlyerFX traded the highest amount of BTC futures volume in January with a daily average transactional value of 1.13 billion USD (down 23% since December), followed by BitMEX perpetual futures at 665 million USD (down 41% since December). Futures products from traditional regulated exchanges (CME and CBOE) represented 11.7% of the Bitcoin to USD futures market in January, up from 6.36% in December.

Fiat Capabilities

Monthly trading volume from exchanges that offer fiat pairs decreased by 26.5% in January to 37.5 billion USD, while crypto-to-crypto exchange volume decreased by 7.2% to 132 billion USD. Following this large decline in volume from exchanges that offer fiat trading pairs, in January they represented 22% of total spot volume, down from 26% in December.

Web Traffic

Total exchange web traffic continues its downward trend along with spot volumes, each dropping 13.5% and 12.4% respectively in January. According to calculations based on Alexa data, total monthly unique visitors across CryptoCompare exchanges decreased from 12 million in December to 10.4 million in January.

 

Bitcoin to Fiat Volumes

In January, 48% of Bitcoin trading into fiat was made up of the US Dollar (1.47 million BTC), down from 57% in December. BTC trading into JPY decreased less (-24%) than that traded into USD (-49%) and EUR (-37%) since December. The USD, JPY and EUR made up 90% of total trading from Bitcoin into fiat in the previous month and maintained dominance in January at 89% of BTC to fiat volume.

 

Bitcoin to Stablecoin Volumes

Bitcoin trading into USDT represented 65% of trading into stablecoins and fiat coins in January, up from the 63.7% seen in December. USDT, PAX, USDC and GUSD represent the most popular stablecoins in terms of Bitcoin trading volume. BTC trading into PAX increased 66% in January at 114,000 BTC in total; however, USDT still represents that majority at 5.9 million BTC.

Exchange Volumes

Top Exchange Volumes – ZB was the top exchange by total volume in January, followed by Binance and OKEX. The total volume for ZB in January was 19.6 billion USD, a 6.2% increase from December. The total volumes for Binance and OKEX fell 15% and 19.4% respectively in January.

Trans-Fee Mining Exchanges – CoinBene was the largest TFM exchange in January, followed by ZBG and EXX. CoinBene traded 10 billion USD in total volume in January, down 3.2% since December. ZBG traded 6 billion USD and EXX traded 5.5 billion USD, up 18 and 20% since December respectively.

Decentralised Exchanges – Ethermium was the largest DEX in January, followed by WavesDEX and OpenLedger. DEXs continue to represent only a small fraction of global spot exchange volume (0.19%), trading a monthly total of 385 million USD.

 

HODLX February 20, 2019

David

Bitcoin gets delayed boost from JPMorgan’s embrace of crypto

Bitcoin is approaching $4,000 for the first time since the start of the year, as the largest cryptocurrency gets a delayed boost from the announcement last week that JPMorgan has developed a prototype digital coin that it plans to use to speed up payments between corporate customers.

“What some people have pointed to is that because they’re using distributed ledger technology and they’re calling it a cryptocurrency, that could have a positive effect on the industry,” said Mati Greenspan, senior market analyst at eToro in Tel Aviv.

Greenspan credited a jump in Ethereum over the weekend tied to the production of coins for helping to create an optimistic environment that pushed most crypto prices higher. Ether rose 17 percent Monday, and was up 3.6 percent to around $146 as of 10:30 a.m. in New York. Bitcoin climbed as much as 3.1 percent Tuesday to $3,970.

At least one measure followed by technical analysts suggests Bitcoin has more room to run, with the digital token in a solid buy trend for the first time since mid-December.

In addition, the VERA Convergence Divergence indicator turned positive today for the first time in over two months, indicating this rally may take Bitcoin over the heavily resisted $4,000 level.

The last time Bitcoin triggered a buy signal it gained $1,100 over the next 10 days.

 

Bloomberg 20 February 2019

David

Markets Hit Six Week High as Altcoin Rally Adds Another $10 Billion

Yesterday’s crypto market rally has continued for a second day adding a further $10 billion to total market capitalization.

The push has driven markets over $134 billion which is the highest they have been since the big dump on January 10, almost six weeks ago. Around ten days ago crypto markets were depressed at $111 billion, since then they have recovered around 20% to current levels. The big question is can this rally turn into a longer term uptrend or is another mega dump imminent.

Ethereum initiated the run yesterday when it pumped 12%, outperforming most of the top altcoins, and Bitcoin itself. Today’s big performer is EOS which has jumped 24% to $3.60 at the time of writing. EOS hit a high of $3.79 a few hours ago which is its best price since late-November’s big market purge. Daily volume has surged to over $2.3 billion pushing EOS market cap to $3.25 billion taking fourth place back from Litecoin. There does not appear to be anything specific driving EOS at the moment aside from fear of missing out (fomo) so a pullback is expected.

Bitcoin Cash has had another solid day’s performance as it gains 13% taking it to $147, chasing down LTC just above it with a climb of 7% to $47.50. Ethereum has also made a further 7% on the day taking its price up to $147 and pushing it over $2 billion clear of XRP in terms of market cap.

Bitcoin is approaching heavy resistance at $4,000 but it is still climbing at the moment with a 5% gain on the day to a high of $3,970 a few hours ago. BTC has since pulled back to $3,920 where it is holding for now.

Other top performers are altcoins which have been hit the hardest in recent weeks namely Cardano, IOTA, Dash, and Ethereum Classic, all climbing 6 to 8 percent on the day. At the moment it is the altcoins which are enjoying the biggest gains over the past 48 hours. Some analysts have predicted the beginning of the “altseason” by looking at total market cap for them without Bitcoin. It has just broken the yearlong trend line and Bitcoin dominance is falling back towards 50%.

At the moment things are looking positive for the majority of altcoins and for once Bitcoin is playing catch-up. It is a pattern repeated countless times though and big brother BTC will have its day sooner or later.

 

Luke Thompson February 19, 2019

 

David

Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis: Aiming for Triangle Top Next!

Bitcoin broke above its short-term descending channel to confirm that the climb is gaining traction. This also completes a breakout from the bullish flag continuation pattern, indicating that a climb of the same height as the mast is in order.

The 100 SMA is above the longer-term 200 SMA to confirm that the path of least resistance is to the upside. In other words, the uptrend is more likely to continue than to reverse. This might even lead to a break above the triangle top on the 4-hour time frame.

If so, bitcoin might see a climb that’s the same height as the triangle, which spans $3,300 to $4,400. This might take it all the way up to the forecast of “$5,000 in the next ten days” from the previous week.

So far, the 100 SMA is holding up well as a dynamic support level while the 200 SMA could also hold as a floor near the $3,600 mark in the event of a pullback. A break below the triangle bottom at $3,500 could signal that bearish pressure is back in play.

RSI is already in the overbought zone to indicate that buyers are tired and sellers might take over. In that case, price might also pull back to the broken channel top around $3,700. Stochastic has more room to climb before hitting the overbought zone, which means that buyers could have the upper hand for much longer.

The recent upside break would likely draw more bullish forecasts from analysts, possibly extending the rally even further. Meanwhile, anticipation for the Fidelity institutional platform is also building up as the March launch data approaches.

If this pushes through, a pickup in volumes from institution is expected, likely drawing even more bullish interest. On the other hand, another delay could spur a major correction once more.

 

By Rachel Lee February 18, 2019

David

BITCOIN’S WONDER WEEK – 10 signs a boom is coming

There are plenty of reasons to get depressed during ‘Crypto Winter’. But every day we read new stories about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency adoption that make us think the next boom is incoming. Here are 10 stories from this week alone:

1. Bitcoin is now legal in more than 100 countries

According to Coin Dance, Bitcoin is now legal (or at least not specifically banned) in 111 countries out of a total of 256. That includes almost all of the biggest economies in Europe, Russia, South Africa and South America. Bitcoin gets a less enthusiastic welcome in Asia and Africa.
 

2. History shows this could be the last time many can afford a Bitcoin

Crypto trader and investor Josh Rager shared a chart this week of Bitcoin’s overall upward movement since inception, and suggested this could be the last time the public could actually afford to buy a whole Bitcoin. “After 2021 – Bitcoin could move to a market price where most will only buy fractions … $BTC speculative value could be out of reach for most.”
 

3. Nasdaq announced it will add Bitcoin and Ethereum indices this month

Nasdaq announced this week it will launch two new indices tracking cryptocurrency prices from February 25. The Bitcoin Liquid Index (BLX) and the Ethereum Liquid Index (ELX) — provide real time updates in thirty-second intervals for clients using NASDAQ’s Global Index Data Service (GIDS). Now, that’s a long way from a Bitcoin ETF approval, but it shows crypto is now firmly on the radar of traditional and institutional investors. Nasdaq is also reportedly launching Bitcoin futures in the first half of this year.

4. Two US retirement funds invested in a crypto fund

The institutional money has started to flow. For the first time two US pension funds invested in a $40 million cryptocurrency fund overseen by Morgan Creek Capital. Virginia’s Fairfax County’s Police Officers Retirement System and Employees’ Retirement System both think Bitcoin is now worth gambling other people’s retirements on.
 

5. Bitcoin will ‘grind back up,’ says Mike Novogratz

Former Goldman Sachs partner Mike Novogratz told Bloomberg this week that Bitcoin won’t explode all of a sudden, but will “grind back up to $8000”. “It feels like we’re just grinding along the bottom and the next move is significantly higher. We are not gonna bubble back up… We are going to grind back up… But if you start buying, could you go to $8,000? Of course, you could… And then you see the enthusiasm pick up… ”
 

6. Bitcoin is now mining its biggest blocks ever

Blockchain.com showed that February 12 had an average block size of 1.305 megabytes, the biggest on record. Blocks mined today by the Bitcoin network are now regularly bigger than 1MB, which was the limit that existed before Segregated Witness (SegWit) was introduced in August of 2017. Unfortunately up to 20 percent was by a startup called VeriBlock and their transactions have been called ‘spam’.

7. You can now buy pizza easily and cheaply with Bitcoin

Domino’s Pizza now accepts Bitcoin via the Lighting Network, through a third party called

Lightning Pizza. Every order comes with a five per cent discount and fees will cost less than one US cent.
 

8. Chinese Bitcoin billionaire forecasts end of winter

On WeChat Chinese Bitcoin (BTC) billionaire Zhao Dong told investors there are a few more months of winter to endure and predicted the crypto spring will come in 2020, and summer will arrive in 2021. That means now is the time to buy up while it’s cheap.
 

9. 13% of consumers across 22 countries have actually bought stuff with crypto

A survey by Kaspersky Labs of more than 12,000 consumers in 22 different countries found about 13 percent of people have used cryptocurrency as a payment method. Separate data from Coinmap shows there are now 14,346 venues that accept BTC as against 1,789 recorded almost six years ago, an increase of 702 percent since December 2013.

10. Lightning network lighting up

Yes, apparently the Lightning Network now has 6,000 Nodes and $2.4 million capacity. OK, that’s about as much as one house costs in Sydney. But still. The Lightning Network aims to solve the high costs, low transaction volume and rubbish transaction speeds associated with Bitcoin. While it’s early days yet, if it can scale, then this could make Bitcoin king of crypto for years to come.

 

By Andrew Fenton -February 17, 2019

David

Bitcoin price prediction – BTC/USD bears have a hard time at $3,550 – Confluence Detector

• BTC/USD is well-supported at the current price level.

• The bulls need to take out $3,650 to put Bitcoin back on the recovery track.

BTC/USD has steadied below $3,600 handle as the bullish enthusiasm proved to be short-lived. The largest digital coin has been rangebound with downside bias for a few days, singling the loss of the recovery momentum.

A steady flow of positive fundamental news did little to support the prices or engineer a new bullish trend. The industry seems to be humming along, but the market remains skeptical. Traders are in no hurry to push Bitcoin and other digital assets out of the recent ranges and to new highs.

BTC/USD the daily confluence detector

Bitcoin bears may have a hard time pushing the price lower, considering a thin layer of strong technical indicators clustered right under the current price. They include a host of short-term SMA levels, the midline of 1-hour Bollinger Band, 38.2% and 61.8% Fibo retracement on a daily chart, 38.2% Fibo retracement weekly.

Once this barrier is out of the way, the price will bump into another support zone, created at $3,540-$3,520 by a confluence of 23.6% Fibo retracement monthly, SMA200 and SMA50 4-hour and Pivot Point 1-day Support 1.

This area is followed by psychological $3,500. A sustainable move lower may trigger strong sell-off with the next focus at $3,338, which is the lowest level of the previous week.

On the upside, the recovery is capped by a psychological $3,600, which is closely followed by DMA50 at $3,624. This is a strong resistance area that also contains 23.6% Fibo retracement weekly, 161.8% Fibo projection weekly and Pivot Point 1-day Resistance 2.

A minor resistances is also registered on approach to $3,650 (38.2% Fibo retracement monthly, pivot Point 1-day Resistance 3). By taking this hurdle out, Bitcoin bulls will effectively clear out the way towards $4,000 as there is little in terms of technical levels there.

BTC/USD, 1D

 

Tanya Abrosimova

FXStreet

David

Bitcoin’s highly publicized meteoric rise to its all-time high of $20,000 in December 2017 was a classic bubble cycle at its peak. The media attention and hype from individuals talking about the crypto on social media and in social circles sparked FOMO (fear of missing out) in retail investors who eventually got burned when the price of BTC collapsed starting in January 2018.

Throughout the current bear market, due to early investors getting in long before Bitcoin went parabolic, collectively, investors were able to stay above water. But once support at $6K broke and capitulation set in, Bitcoin investors became deep underwater and are still drowning in losses since. However, according to data shared by a prominent crypto analyst, Bitcoin is “seldom underwater” and it could signal that investors could be seeing gains again in the future.

Bitcoin Investors Have Only Been Underwater for Under 2 Out of 10 Years

Bitcoin has been rightfully lauded for the asset’s ability to produce substantial gains not seen in traditional financial assets or investments. Even at current prices of roughly $3,600, from the first ever recorded BTC price of $0.003 represents a 120 million percent increase – gains that are typically unheard of in other markets.

Due to the first ever cryptocurrency’s rise from practically worthless, to nearly $20,000, there have been many opportunities for investors to become profitable in their journey alongside Bitcoin and rarely are investors underwater on their BTC holdings.

According to a price chart from CoinMetrics that approximates the price paid for all circulating coins – as was shared by prominent crypto analyst Willy Woo – Bitcoin investors are underwater for only the third time in the technological and financial breakthrough’s ten years in existence.

Only two times before the current dive have investors went underwater.

At the tail end of 2011, Bitcoin took a three-month dip into the water starting around September when price fell from nearly $8 in late August, all the way down to roughly $2 in November of the same year. It wasn’t until December when BTC made a recovery and came up for a breath of air.

During the dreaded 2014-2015 bear market following the Mt. Gox disaster, Bitcoin again fell deep underwater in January 2015 and stayed there until early November of the same year.

In total, Bitcoin has spent only around 18 months out of the ten years since the Genesis Block with investors of the asset underwater. Given Bitcoin’s resiliency and ability to bounce back, the market may be closer to establishing the ever elusive bottom.

Bye-Bye BTC Bear Market? Not So Fast

While the data does show that Bitcoin investors falling underwater could indicate a bottom is in or at least near, the same data could also be a sad signal for bulls.

Should Bitcoin’s price follow a similar path and trajectory as the 2014-2015 bear market, and it has done so eerily closely thus far, investors in the asset may be stuck spending another 7-9 months underwater before a bull trend resumes.

The previous time Bitcoin went underwater, it stayed there for 11 months before a relief rally occurred that wasn’t immediately batted down by overhead by bearish resistance. The current bear market only dove underwater following the break of critical support at $6,000 back in November of last year, which could suggest that the bear market has a lot longer to go before the end of crypto winter is here.

 

TONY SPILOTRO | FEBRUARY 14, 2019 | 1:00 AM

David

BITCOIN BREAKTHROUGH – The institutions ‘have arrived’

Bitcoin evangelist Anthony Pompliano says the institutions have arrived to cryptocurrency, after his digital asset firm signed two US pension funds.

Morgan Creek, which focusses on institutional clients and family offices, says the Fairfax County’s Police Officers Retirement System and Employees’ Retirement System contributed to the US$40M fund.

“Blockchain technology is being applied in unique and compelling ways across multiple industries,” said Katherine Molnar, chief investment officer of Fairfax County’s police officer’s retirement system, in a press release.

“We feel it is important to be opportunistic and are excited to participate in this emerging opportunity, due to the attractive asymmetric return profile that it represents.”

Mr Pompliano believes it’s the first time a cryptocurrency venture fund has raised money from a public pension.

“The institutions aren’t coming. They’re already here!” Mr Pompliano proclaimed.

“A tonne of people worked their asses off to make this happen and it took some incredibly forward thinking capital allocators to have the courage to be the first.

“Couldn’t be more proud of everyone.”

It’s understood the fund will primarily make equity-based investments in start-up companies active in the blockchain space, but also smaller investments in security tokens and cryptocurrencies.

The fund’s investors also include a hospital system, a university endowment and an insurance company.

“We’re investing in infrastructure companies with some small liquid crypto exposure,” Mr Pompliano said.

 

 

February 13, 20196149

David