Gold weaker as U.S. Treasury yields up-tick

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(Kitco News) – Gold prices are modestly down and silver near steady in midday U.S. dealings Wednesday. The precious metals markets are seeing buying interest limited by a rise in U.S. Treasury yields at mid-week. However, losses in metals are being limited by a weaker U.S. dollar index today. June gold was last down $7.20 at $1,997.30 and May silver was up $0.003 at $24.89.

Traders at mid-week are buzzing about First Republic Bank's quarterly earnings report on Tuesday that was worse than expected, including a huge outflow of deposits. Reports said the bank's conference call on its earnings was very brief, with no questions taken from reporters. That prompted a nearly 50% drop in the bank's share price Tuesday, including trading in the stock being halted for a while. Reports today said the U.S. government is not going to step in an assist the ailing bank.

Meantime, U.S. and/or global recession fears appear to be moving back toward the front burner of the marketplace. Diesel fuel prices in the U.S. have plunged in recent months and are about half of what they were one year ago. Such suggests a slowdown in the commercial transportation sector that could be a signal of a slowing U.S. economy. United Parcel Service (UPS) on Tuesday issued a downbeat corporate earnings report, saying “macro conditions” would likely continue to pressure its delivery volume. The metals markets appear to be taking a bearish lean from this situation, on notions of less consumer and commercial demand if the global economy weakens.

Global stock markets were mixed to weaker overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed at midday. Focus of stock traders this week is on the release of quarterly corporate earnings reports. So far, they have been mixed.

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In overnight news, Sweden's central bank raised its main interest rate by 0.5%, saying inflation is still far too high.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. Nymex crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $76.75 a barrel. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield is presently fetching 3.695%.

Technically, June gold futures bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. However, a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the April high of $2,063.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the April low of $1,965.90. First resistance is seen at today's high of $2,020.20 and then at $2,028.00. First support is seen at last week's low of $1,980.90 and then at $1,965.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

May silver futures bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated, which is one early clue that a market top is in place. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $26.235. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $23.00. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $25.435 and then at $25.71. Next support is seen at this week's low of $24.53 and then at $24.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

May N.Y. copper closed up 105 points at 385.85 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 410.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the March low of 382.20 cents. First resistance is seen at 390.00 cents and then at Tuesday's high of 397.00 cents. First support is seen at this week's low of 383.00 cents and then at 382.20 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By

Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Info from Thursday’s GDP and Friday’s PCE report will guide investors

This week will contain two exceedingly important government reports on the US economy. These two reports will be exceedingly important in guiding the final decision of the Federal Reserve at the FOMC meeting next week.

Beginning on Thursday the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will release the Gross Domestic Product first quarter report. An average of the current forecasts is predicting that the first quarter GDP for 2023 will come in at 1.8%. If correct, this would indicate that the economy continues to contract from the 2.6% GDP that was reported in the fourth quarter of last year.

According to Saxo.com, “The advance reading of the US real GDP growth, scheduled to release on Thursday, is expected, according to Bloomberg’s survey of economists, to slow to 2% Q/Q annualized in Q1, down from 2.6% in Q4 last year. Despite inventory drawdown potentially dragging GDP growth, personal consumption is expected to come in strong at 4% Q/Q annualized and be the key driving force to sustain GDP growth in Q1.”

This will be followed by Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the preferred measure of inflation and wage growth used by the Federal Reserve. Economists polled by Bloomberg are predicting a moderate forecast for the core PCE to show an increase of inflation by 0.3% MoM and 4.5% YoY.

According to the same report by Saxo, “As rent-related components have a smaller weight in the core PCE measures than in the core CPI calculation, the core PCE may not benefit as much as the CPI counterpart from the recent weaknesses in rents. Investors will monitor closely the core service excluding housing sub-index in the PCE report to gauge the underlying consumer inflation trend in the U.S. Meanwhile, the headline PCE deflator growth is expected to slow to 0.1% M/M and 4.1% Y/Y in March from 0.3% M/M and 5.0% Y/Y in February.”

These upcoming reports and their forecasts have led investors to devalue the US dollar which in turn has added strength to gold prices. However, gold futures remain just under $2000 per ounce at the time of this writing.

As of 5:00 PM EST, gold futures basis most active June contract is up $8.10 or 0.41% and fixed at $1998.60. Gains witnessed in gold futures today have an exacting negative correlation to dollar weakness. Currently, the dollar is down 0.45% with the dollar index currently fixed at 101.095. Gold futures have traded to a higher low and a lower high than Friday’s strong price decline. On Friday of last week, gold futures broke below a critical technical and psychological price level of $2000 per ounce. As gold held above $2000 speculators and traders believed there was a strong possibility that gold would challenge the record of $2088 per ounce. Reciprocally, moves below that key technical level garnered speculation of gold prices dropping.

According to the CME’s FedWatch tool, there is almost a certainty (91.4%) that the Federal Reserve will end next week’s meeting with the announcement of a ¼% rate hike. Also, there is a 67.9% probability that the Fed’s terminal target rate will remain between 5% and 5 ¼% with the Federal Reserve not raising rates at the June 2023 FOMC meeting.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold price plunges $30, but analysts focus on Fed pause after May rate hike

Gold tumbled $30 on the day and dropped below the critical $2,000 an ounce level, but analysts said there is enough buying interest to boost prices back up.

Significant volatility in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields markets took a toll on gold Friday, with June Comex gold futures last trading at $1,989.10, down 1.49% on the day.

The Fed's blackout period also begins this Saturday, meaning Federal Reserve officials won't speak publicly between then and the May 3 FOMC meeting. Markets are currently pricing in an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point hike, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

"It is expected the Fed will raise rates a quarter point next month. And there is a great deal of uncertainty with gold above or below $2,000. I remain bullish at these levels. We will get to a point where the Fed has to pause and make that pivot. And maybe resort to cuts later this year," RJO Futures senior market strategist Frank Cholly told Kitco News. "That will support gold, which will trade at all-time highs between now and the end of the year."

Next week, markets will zero in on fresh macro data, including the U.S. Q1 GDP and PCE price index numbers.

"The upcoming U.S. economic data, especially the GDP data and the price deflator for consumer expenditures, being the Fed's preferred inflation measure, could trigger some price movement," said Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch.

On Friday, markets already digested stronger-than-expected U.S. manufacturing and service sector data, which weighed on gold. The S&P Global Flash U.S. manufacturing PMI advanced to 50.4 in April from March's reading of 49.2. This marked the first move into expansion territory since September.

"Markets were looking for a decline. Also, people thought that the U.S. dollar would be dropping and positioned short. And with economic data moving higher, we are likely seeing some short-covering," TD Securities' global head of commodity strategy Bart Melek told Kitco News. "The Fed is more likely than not to keep that hawkish stance alive. For May, it is on track to do another 25bps hike, and there is a risk of one increase more after that."

Price levels

A decent support level for gold is at around $1,962, but prices can drop below that, Melek noted, adding that it will depend on the economic data and what the yields are doing. “Technically, we see significant support at just above $1,960/oz. However, we see the yellow metal trend at $2,100/oz in late H2-2023,” he said.

Cholly pointed to $1,975-80 as likely to hold next week. He added that "markets tend to overreach in both directions. The $1,975 level is going to be relatively good support. I don't see it getting below $1,965." On the upside, the first hurdle will be $2,025 and then $2,050-60.

After the Fed May rate hike

The May hike looks increasingly likely to be the last interest rate increase, according to Capital Economics deputy chief U.S. economist Andrew Hunter.

"We are increasingly confident that the May rate hike will prove to be the last of this cycle … [And] our expectation that rates will be cut again late this year. That's based on our long-standing view that the economy is headed for recession, eventually dragging inflation down more quickly than the Fed is allowing for."

Gold's long-term bullish outlook is still very much intact. And as soon as markets settle on when the Fed pauses, gold will rally.

"Right now, there is a risk that the Fed overdoes it. When the economy slows, it will be fast. For gold, it is important that a pivot is happening, and there is a significant risk that U.S. central bank won't strictly adhere to 2% inflation," said Melek.

And that means that the Fed will likely ignore elevated inflation and keep adding accommodation, which will sustain gold's bullish trend. "This would imply lower real rates than previous cycles," Melek pointed out. "Central banks and consumers are buying gold as a hedge to preserve their purchasing power."

Investors are also once again realizing that there is more than one reason to own gold, added Cholly.

"The safe haven trade is going to be a factor. And it is not just a hedge against the U.S. dollar and rates. But geopolitical tensions are rising again, especially between U.S. and China," he said. "People are starting to feel like there is enough uncertainty. And we are about to enter a recession. Gold prices will remain strong."

Next week's data

Tuesday: CB consumer confidence, U.S. new home sales

Wednesday: U.S. durable goods orders

Thursday: U.S. GDP Q1, jobless claims, U.S. pending home sales,

Friday: U.S. PCE price index

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold is just stepping back to build a running start

At the height of last month's banking crisis, markets were pricing in a potential rate cut as early as June, so it's no wonder why gold prices are ending below $2,000 an ounce this week. While gold could see further lows in the near term, analysts note that the market is still on track to hit all-time highs this year.

It's not surprising that some investors are taking some profits in gold. Fear of the global economy breaking is being replaced by renewed fears of inflation. While U.S. consumer prices are on a downward trend, inflation is being acutely felt in the United Kingdom. The nation's Consumer Price Index showed annual inflation holding relatively steady at 10.1% last month. This was the seventh consecutive month that inflation has been above 10%.

There are unique reasons why inflation is exceptionally high in Britain. Still, the data indicates that inflation is a global problem that will likely become entrenched in the broader global economy. The British inflation data showed that food prices rose 19.2% in the last 12 months.

Despite specific economic issues, this number does not bode well for the world. The last time I checked, everyone needs to eat.

It's hard to argue that the inflation threat has gone away when agricultural commodity prices are going higher. Sugar prices are at their highest level in 11 years; meanwhile, feeder cattle future prices are at an eight-year high. Consumers better prepare for more expensive barbecues this summer.

Even those who don't eat beef are stuck. This week analysts at Fitch Solutions published a report saying that rice production in 2023 is expected to see its worst annual production in 20 years. According to Fitch, The world could see a rice deficit of 8.7 million tonnes.

These headlines will keep the Federal Reserve from loosening its monetary policies anytime soon, which, as we know, is a negative for gold.

However, while gold could see some near-term selling pressure, many analysts note that the precious metal remains well supported. Last month's banking crisis shows that there is only so much the Federal Reserve can do before the economy breaks.

Many analysts have noted that gold remains an attractive, safe haven and inflation hedge.

"The monetary disorder that we have seen is far from over, and right now, we are just waiting to see how it will spread," said James Robertson, an analyst at Grant's Interest Rate Observer, in an interview with Kitco News. "This will continue to support gold prices."

Looking past global monetary policies, there are other reasons to be bullish on gold, including the fact that it remains an essential monetary metal. The worldwide de-dollarization trend is picking up significant momentum. In a recent report, Stephen Jen, CEO and co-CIO of Eurizon SLJ Capital, said that the U.S. dollar's share as a global reserve currency dropped to 47% last year, down from 55% in 2021. In 2020, 73% of reserves were in U.S. dollars.

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“The dollar suffered a stunning collapse in 2022 in its market share as a reserve currency, presumably due to its muscular use of sanctions," Jen wrote in the report.

Central banks have been flocking to gold in this environment, and analysts don't expect this trend to end anytime soon.

Finally, while we talk a lot about gold in this newsletter, we can't ignore what is happening in other precious metals. Silver is outperforming gold as prices hold above $25 an ounce and platinum is the best-performing metal in the complex.

Both silver and platinum are benefiting from growing imbalances in their supply and demand fundamentals.

This week, the Silver Institute said that the silver market hit a record deficit in 2022 and it expects that trend to continue into 2023. Metals Focus, the firm behind the research, noted that the deficits in 2021 and 2022 have more than offset the cumulative surpluses of the previous 11 years.

According to many analysts, this deficit should continue to support higher prices.

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

The hawkish Fed narrative continues to underscore the need for further rate hikes

The recent volatility that led to diminished bullish market sentiment for gold has diminished as gold continues to effectively find support at $2000 per ounce and above. Today gold traded to a low of $2002.20, effectively above the current critical support level of $2000. This morning in New York traders witnessed a quick and powerful price surge taking gold to a high of $2024.20. As of 4:00 PM EST gold futures basis the most active June 2023 contract is up $8.30, or 0.41%, and fixed at $2015.60.

The dollar had very little input in today’s price gains in gold with the index off fractionally by 0.08% and fixed at 101.585.

Officials of the Federal Reserve continue to express a resolute narrative that is conveying that at least for the near future a pause of interest rate hikes is off the table. Rather, an additional Federal Reserve official today continues to reiterate the need for taking interest rates higher, which will include additional rate hikes, and keeping the elevated level intact for a longer period of time.

Federal Reserve officials will go silent in two days, on Saturday, April 22. The blackout period will remain in effect until the May FOMC meeting has concluded, and a statement is released which will be followed by a press conference with Chairman Powell.

Now three Fed officials have expressed the need to continue to raise interest rates even after the anticipated ¼% rate hike occurs in May. Yesterday, the New York Federal Reserve President, John Williams spoke to a group of bond-market experts known as the Money Marketeers of New York University saying that recent data has indicated that a “trend of slowing inflation is continuing.” He also added that there are some indications of a “gradual cooling in the demand for labor”. However, “Inflation is still too high and we will use our monetary policy tools to restore price stability.”

President Williams's comments can now be added to similar remarks by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and James Bullard.

Wallace said that the Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates because of the high level of inflation. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said, “The U.S. central bank should continue raising interest rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent while the broader economy seems poised to continue growing, even if slowly.”

The combination of all three Fed officials expressed a narrative much different than many market participants assumed, which was a pause by the Federal Reserve in rate hikes to begin after one more rate hike in May. Market participants are now factoring in the possibility of additional rate hikes after the expected ¼% hike at the FOMC meeting in May.

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Fed narrative alarms traders who believe that a rate pause is imminent after the May rate hike

Recent volatility led to diminished bullish market sentiment for gold causing a price break and taking gold futures to $1980.90 before recovering. This morning in New York traders witnessed a quick and powerful price decline in gold breaking $20 below $2000 and recovering just as quickly as it sold off.

This was in response to Federal Reserve officials who continue to reiterate the need for taking interest rates higher. Federal Reserve officials will go silent one week before the May FOMC meeting beginning on Saturday, April 22.

Two Fed officials have been extremely vocal both suggesting the need to continue to raise interest rates even after the anticipated ¼% rate hike occurs in May.

Last week Fed Governor Christopher Waller said that the Federal Reserve needs to continue raising interest rates because of the high level of inflation. "Economic output and employment are continuing to grow at a solid pace while inflation remains much too high," Waller said, noting that investors should not expect rates to fall any time soon. "Monetary policy will need to remain tight for a substantial period of time, and longer than markets anticipate,".

Fed Governor Waller was resolute when he spoke on Friday saying, “Despite a year of aggressive rate increases U.S. central bankers "haven't made much progress" in returning inflation to their 2% target and need to move interest rates higher still.”

Addressing current inflationary pressures Waller said that inflation has "basically moved sideways with no apparent downward movement… Monetary policy needs to be tightened further. How much further will depend on incoming data on inflation, the real economy, and the extent of tightening credit conditions."

James Bullard and Christopher Waller both strongly believe that the economy and inflation continue to remain stronger than expected.

Reuters posted an interview yesterday with St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard who also underscored the need for higher U.S. interest rates to combat inflation. During the interview, Federal President Bullard said, “The U.S. central bank should continue raising interest rates on the back of recent data showing inflation remains persistent while the broader economy seems poised to continue growing, even if slowly.”

Both Fed officials expressed a narrative much different than many market participants assumed, which is a pause by the Federal Reserve in rate hikes to begin after one more rate hike in May. The assumption that the Federal Reserve will stop their consecutive rate hikes at every FOMC meeting since March 2022 diminished based on the most recent narrative by Waller and Bullard.

The chart above is a 30-minute Japanese candlestick chart of gold futures. It shows how quickly gold sold off during the morning trading session in New York after breaking below the support trendline at $2013. The chart also indicates that gold recovered as quickly as it sold off. As of 5:30 PM EST, the most active June 2023 futures contract is down $12.30 and fixed at $2007.40.

Gary S. Wagner

By

Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold futures trade to $1993.40 and recover back above $2000

As of 4:25 PM EST, gold futures basis the most active June 2023 contract is trading down $8.50 or 0.42% and fixed at $2007.20. In earlier trading market participants actively moved gold below the key psychological level of $2000, taking June gold to its intraday low of $1993.40.

Today’s price decline in gold can be 100% attributed to dollar strength. Currently, the dollar is up 0.54%, however, when compared to gold’s decline of -0.41% investors are bidding the precious yellow metal fractionally higher.

Spot gold is also trading lower with dollar strength being 100% responsible for the decline. Currently, spot gold is fixed at $1994.40 a decline of -0.45%. However, on closer inspection dollar strength accounted for $-11.00, and normal trading add + $1.90 resulting in today’s $9.10 decline, according to the Kitco Gold Index (KGX).

Recent statements by members of the Federal Reserve have maintained its current hawkish demeanor underscoring the need for the Fed to continue raising interest rates. On Friday speaking at a conference in San Antonio Texas Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said, “Because financial conditions have not significantly tightened, the labor market continues to be strong and quite tight, and inflation is far above target, so monetary policy needs to be tightened further.”

Governor Waller called the most recent March CPI report “mixed news” that indicated that the Federal Reserve has not made much progress on its goal to reduce inflation. He referenced core consumer prices rising 0.4% or higher for the last four consecutive months as proof that the Federal Reserve needs to continue its aggressive stance of rate hikes.

It must be noted that some economists including Mohamed El-Erian and BlackRock are convinced that inflation is not on track anywhere near the Federal Reserve’s target of 2%. In a note, a strategist at BlackRock said, "Inflation in the US is not on track to settle anywhere close to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, in our view. That was reinforced by March inflation data,"

This is in line with CME’s FedWatch tool that reveals there is an 86.7% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement another rate hike of ¼% which would take their terminal benchmark rate to between 5% and 5 ¼%.

Persistently high inflation will continue to be highly supportive of gold as pricing builds a base and eventual support at $2000 per ounce.

Gary S. Wagner

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Gold prices remains under pressure as U.S. retail sales drop 1% in March

Recession fears could start to pick up again as U.S. consumers cut back on their spending, with retail sales numbers dropping more than expected last month.

U.S. retail sales dropped 1.0% in March, following a revised 0.2% decline in February, according to the latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department. Economists expected a decrease of 0.4%% in last month's headline number.

Core sales, which strip out vehicle sales, also missed expectations, falling 0.8% last month versus the projected decline of 0.1%. The report's control group, which strips out autos, gas, building materials, and food services, dropped 0.3%, falling in line with the consensus forecast.

The disappointing economic data is not having much impact on gold as the market sees some technical selling pressure after Thursday's rally to a fresh 13-month high. June gold futures last traded at $2,045.60 an ounce, down 0.47% on the day.

Along with gold, the weaker-than-expected retail sales numbers are not having much impact on market expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision next month. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see roughly a 70% chance that the U.S. central bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May. At the same time, markets still see the Federal Reserve cutting rates by the summer.

By

Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David

Wild daily swings define gold price action on its path to record highs, focus on Fed speak and bank earnings next week

The gold market is ending the week with another massive move. After rising to a 13-month high Thursday, gold gave up all weekly gains Friday, falling $40 on the day.

On the macro level, the gold market is reacting to positive economic news and some hawkish Federal Reserve speak.

"It wasn't just the data today, you had the banks starting to report earnings. JPMorgan crushed it with record revenue. Wells Fargo's numbers were pretty good. The deposits were okay. It looks like one of the big risks might not be unfolding right now," OANDA senior market analyst Edward Moya told Kitco News. "You're looking at this economy that is still holding up a little bit. And then you get some hawkish Fed speak. That's why gold sold off."

This idea that the Fed could somehow pull off a soft landing has encouraged profit-taking after gold hit $2,063 an ounce this week — just inches away from record highs.

"That view is a little too optimistic, but it is the market's take right now. We've gone from focusing on how much the Fed will cut at the end of the year to possibly considering a June hike," Moya said.

The hawkish sentiment, however, could quickly dissipate with more macro data. "Monetary policy acts with a lag, and with the restrictive territory that we're seeing, things could start to break soon," Moya added.

Also, the latest producer price index numbers showed that inflation might have peaked, giving the Fed room to pause after May's 25-basis-point hike, said Gainesville Coins precious metals expert Everett Millman.

"If inflation is coming down and there are still banking problems, the Fed doesn't have a lot of good reason to keep its foot on the pedal and hike after May," Millman told Kitco News. "During the May 2-3 meeting, gold will only react if there is an emergency rate cut or a 50-bps hike. Both are unlikely."

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic told Reuters Thursday that the Fed will need only one more rate hike. Recent data points "are consistent with us moving one more time," Bostic said. "We've got a lot of momentum suggesting that we're on the path to 2%."

In contrast, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said Friday that there is little progress on inflation and rates will need to move higher.

Inflation has "basically moved sideways with no apparent downward movement," Waller said. "Monetary policy needs to be tightened further. How much further will depend on incoming data on inflation, the real economy, and the extent of tightening credit conditions."

Technicals have played a big role in the gold's selloff Friday, with lots of profit-taking flooding the market.

"This is more of a technical selloff than anything," Forex.com senior technical strategist Michael Boutros told Kitco News. "Pent-up long positions are coming off. But price pullbacks should be limited. The war is still going on, and there is a devaluation of the dollar as a global standard. This will help the gold rally stay afloat long-term."

Boutros is looking at the $1,966 level as support, which was April's open. "If we hold that support, it will be just a minor setback for gold," he said.

For Millman, gold's key support levels are at around $2,015 and $2,000, and resistance is at all-time highs of around $2,070. "There is no clear support level if we fall below $2,000. Gold can go to $1,900," he said.

At the time of writing, June Comex gold futures were trading at $2,015.40, down $40 on the day.

Next week, attention will be on bank earnings, including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. "I anticipate that those are all bullish for gold. We're going to see markets remain volatile," Moya said.

Next week's data

Monday: NY Empire State manufacturing index

Tuesday: U.S. building permits and housing starts

Thursday: ECB meeting minutes, U.S. jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, U.S. existing home sales,

By

Anna Golubova

For Kitco News

Time to Buy Gold and Silver

David