Commerzbank lowers gold price target to $1,800 and sees potential for higher prices by 2023

The third quarter has been disappointing for many gold investors as the precious metal has been in a sharp downtrend and recently has been unable to hold any gains above $1,800 an ounce.

Although gold has struggled in the face of rising interest rates and surging momentum in the U.S. dollar, Carsten Fritsch, precious metals analyst at Commerzbank, said in a report Monday that the price action is doing a lot better than one would expect given the current environment.

Although gold prices have dropped, prices have held initial support at around $1,700 an ounce as the Federal Reserve embarked on an extraordinary tightening cycle. So far this year, the U.S. central bank has raised interest rates by 2.25%, driving real yields higher and boosting the U.S. dollar to a 20-year high.

"Despite all the complaining about the disappointing gold price development in recent months from an investor's point of view, it should not be forgotten that gold is still the best performer this year compared to other asset classes," Fritsch said in the report.

"Gold is currently trading 4.5% below the level at the beginning of the year. In the case of U.S. bonds, the corresponding loss amounts to 9.5% due to the sharp rise in yields, if the T-Note future is used as a reference. The equity markets have lost around 14% since the beginning of the year as measured by the MSCI World, the bitcoin price even more than 50%," Fritsch added.

While the German bank sees some resilient strength in the gold market, they are still downgrading their gold price forecast for the rest of the year. In the report, Commerzbank said that it sees gold prices ending the year at around $1,800 an ounce, down from the previous forecast of $2,000.

"In the short term, gold could come under pressure again because the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates further until the end of the year," Fritsch said.

However, Commerzbank isn't completely giving up on gold. The bank said that it is a little too early to look for a recovery, but they see the potential for higher prices by the start of 2023.

"As soon as it becomes apparent that the rate hike cycle is coming to an end, the gold price should start to rise. This is likely to be the case in the fourth quarter," Fritsch said. "Like the market, we expect the Fed to cut rates again next year as the U.S. economy slides into recession."

Commerzbank sees gold prices ending 2023 at $1,900 an ounce, down from the previous estimate at $2,000 an ounce.

The German bank is also lowering its silver price target to $20.50 an ounce, down from the previous forecast of $24 an ounce. For 2023, Fritsch said that prices could rise to $25 an ounce, down from the prior estimate of $27 an ounce.

Fritsch noted that the silver market has been hit with significant bearish sentiment as investors flee the market.

"Since the beginning of the year, the holdings of silver ETFs tracked by Bloomberg have fallen by more than 3,000 tons. This corresponds to 1.5 months of global mine production that is additionally available as supply. Since the beginning of July, the outflows amount to more than 1,900 tons," he said.

However, Fritsch added that by 2023 silver should see more demand due to the global push for green alternative energy.

Finally, Commerzbank is also lowering its year-end price target for platinum to $1,000 an ounce, down from $1,050 an ounce.

"Since the beginning of the year, these have now totalled more than 400 thousand ounces. The platinum market could therefore be more oversupplied this year than previously expected," Fritsch said.

Credit Suisse downgrades its average gold price forecast to $1,725

By Neils Christensen

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Gold is falling and can't get up

The interesting thing about markets: just when you think you have figured them out, they do the opposite. Just six trading days ago, the precious metals looked ready to run; we reversed our silver position to long. Since the peak on Aug. 12, the metals have closed lower every day.

Therefore, the price action is important. It gives you a better handle on markets and stops you from chasing the news cycle. There are many reasons that gold, silver, and platinum should be rallying, but they are not. The price action told us that there is no hurry to be a buyer.

Markets have many factors that make them move, but one that is never important is the news cycle. Any news that would drive markets is always priced in before you see it. The flow of information is well ahead of reported news. Do yourself a favor, quit guessing or trying to outsmart the market and let price be your guide.

Precious metals should be owned on a physical basis with capital that is not needed tomorrow or anytime soon. Trading should be done with paper. Knowing that, we can trade either side without emotions.

In all markets, price action determines what will happen in the next day, week, or month. Keep the two strategies separate. The worst trade anyone can make is turning a trade into an investment hoping for a way out. Traders must learn to take their losses and move on to the next trade.

Patience, discipline, and money management always win the day. Let the map of the markets show you the way.

By Todd 'Bubba' Horwitz

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Gold, silver weaker Thursday as USDX trades sharply up

Gold and silver prices are modestly lower in midday U.S. trading Thursday, pressured by solid gains in the U.S. dollar index today. Losses in the metals are limited by gains in the crude oil market today. October gold futures were last down $4.20 at $1,762.20. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.181 at $19.555 an ounce.

The marketplace Thursday quickly digested Wednesday afternoon's minutes from the last FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve. Traders deemed the minutes neutral to just slightly dovish and markets showed no significant reactions to them. The CME Fed funds rate futures are now showing slightly better odds for a 0.5% rate hike at the September FOMC meeting.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian indexes mostly down and European indexes mostly up. U.S. stock indexes are mixed to firmer at midday. The U.S. stock indexes have been enjoying price uptrends on the daily charts since early June, and that's another underlying bearish factor for the safe-haven metals markets.

Gold will play a big role in the coming global 'monetary reset' as U.S dollar loses its dominance – Maxime Bernier

In overnight news, the Euro zone consumer price index for July came in hot, at up 8.9%, year-on-year.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $90.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher and hit a three-week high in midday U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 2.85%.

 

Technically, October gold futures prices hit a two-week low today. The gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum on their side. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $1,814.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at today's high of $1,775.90 and then at Wednesday's high of 1,786.30. First support is seen at the August low of $1,759.70 and then at $1,750.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September silver futures prices hit a two-week low today. The silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage and have momentum. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at $20.00 and then at $20.25. Next support is seen at $19.47 and then at $19.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 550 points at 363.70 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a bullish "outside day" up. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 385.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at the August high of 371.30 cents and then at 380.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 354.20 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Gold, silver down on demand concerns – no reaction to FOMC minutes

Gold and silver prices are lower in afternoon U.S. trading Wednesday, amid worries about demand for precious metals following this week’s downbeat economic data coming out of China and still-heightened worries about a U.S. and/or global recession. Rising U.S. Treasury bond yields and a firmer U.S. dollar index on this day were also bearish outside market elements for the metals markets. October gold futures were last down $11.00 at $1,768.50. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.29 at $19.79 an ounce.

The just-released minutes from the last meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) showed members remained concerned about inflation, believing it will remain elevated for some time to come. Members expect “ongoing increases” in the Federal Funds rate—the main U.S. interest rate. The FOMC members also said the U.S. economy’s trajectory was noticeably weaker than what they thought at the previous FOMC meeting. The marketplace was looking for clues on the timing and degrees of upcoming monetary policy tightening from the U.S. central bank. Right now, the Fed funds futures market is putting nearly even odds on either a 0.5% or a 0.75% interest rate increase at the September FOMC meeting. The marketplace, and the metals, showed now significant reaction to the minutes, which contained no big surprises.

Trudeau's policies will put Canada's food supply in peril and lead to higher prices – Maxime Bernier

Global stock markets were mixed overnight, with Asian indexes mostly up and European indexes mostly down. U.S. stock indexes are lower in afternoon trading, on routine corrective pullbacks after hitting four-month highs on Tuesday. Corporate earnings reports are in focus this week.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices higher and trading around $88.00 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.9%.

Technically, October gold futures prices hit a two-month low today. The gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $1,814.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,786.30 and then at 1,800.00. First support is seen at the August low of $1,759.70 and then at $1,750.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at $20.00 and then at $20.25. Next support is seen at $19.47 and then at $19.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

September N.Y. copper closed down 440 points at 358.05 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 385.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 371.30 cents and then at 380.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 354.60 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Gold, silver lower as crude oil sinks, bond yields rise

Gold and silver prices are lower in near midday Tuesday. Weaker crude oil prices and rising U.S. Treasury bond yields on this say helped to pressure the precious metals markets. Also, recently rallying U.S. stock indexes that hit multi-month highs Monday are pulling away trader/investor interest in the long side of the safe-haven gold and silver markets. October gold futures were last down $7.80 at $1,780.00. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.167 at $20.11 an ounce.

Global stock markets were mixed to firmer overnight. U.S. stock indexes are mixed near midday. Corporate earnings reports are in focus this week. Risk appetite in the marketplace this week is less than robust after some downbeat economic from China that prompted China’s central bank to ease its monetary policy. Also, a weaker U.S. Empire State manufacturing report on Monday has ratcheted up worries about an impending U.S. recession.

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices lower and trading around $87.50 a barrel. Reports said Iran may be taking steps in its nuclear program to ease international sanctions on Iranian oil. The U.S. dollar index is a bit weaker in midday U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.837%.

Technically, October gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $1,814.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,725.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,787.60 and then at 1,800.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,775.20 and then at $1,760.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $20.25 and then at $20.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $19.86 and then at $19.47. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 65 points at 361.10 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 385.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 371.30 cents and then at 380.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 354.60 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Gold, silver down amid weak China economic news, bearish outside markets

Gold and silver prices are solidly lower in midday U.S. trading Monday, on demand concerns for the metals after a batch of weak economic data from China. Sharply lower crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar index to start the trading week are also bearish daily forces working against the metals. October gold futures were last down $19.60 at $1,785.70. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.443 at $20.26 an ounce.

China's central bank this week unexpectedly announced it is lowering interest rates and adding liquidity to China's financial system after some dour economic data reported for the world's second-largest economy. Chinese data on factory output, investment, consumer spending and real estate all weakened in July. The dour China news added to fears of a global economic recession. Covid restrictions and a troubled property market have helped to hobble China's economy in recent months. Other raw commodity prices on Monday also took a hit on the China news, led by a big drop in crude oil prices. China is a major global consumer of raw commodities, including metals. A weakening Chinese economy suggests less demand for raw commodities.

Global stock markets were mixed overnight. U.S. stock indexes are a bit higher at midday.

Ghana's central bank to buy domestic gold in September to strengthen nation's foreign reserves

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices sharply lower and trading around $88.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is solidly higher in midday U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching 2.781%.

Technically, October gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling price uptrend is now just barely in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $1,814.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,725.00. First resistance is seen at $1,800.00 and then at today's high of 1,808.20. First support is seen at today's low of $1,777.60 and then at $1,760.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. A fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at $20.50 and then at today's high of $20.87. Next support is seen at $20.00 and then at $19.47. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

September N.Y. copper closed down 525 points at 361.60 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range. The key "outside markets" were bearish for copper today as crude oil prices were sharply down and the U.S. dollar index was higher. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 385.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 330.00 cents. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 371.30 cents and then at 380.00 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 354.60 cents and then at 350.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Stronger dollar set for weekly loss as traders adjust rate hike bets

The dollar rallied on Friday but was set for a weekly drop as traders weighed improving U.S. inflation data against comments from Federal Reserve officials who cautioned the battle against rising prices is far from over.

U.S. import prices declined for the first time in seven months in July on lower costs for both fuel and non-fuel products, data showed on Friday, in the third report this week to hint inflation may have peaked. read more

Another two key inflation measures, for consumer prices and producer prices, cooled in July, data on Wednesday and Thursday showed, prompting traders to pare back views that the Fed will raise interest rates by 75 basis points for a third consecutive time when it meets in September. read more

The dollar dropped more than 1% after Wednesday's consumer price index data, but has reversed some of those losses and is on track for a 0.8% decline for the week.

"While the improvement in inflation dealt the dollar a setback this week, conviction in a less aggressive Fed remains highly fluid, so conseq

uently, it's been tough to keep the dollar down for meaningful stretches," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Convera.

At 10:35 a.m. Eastern time (1435 GMT), the dollar index was up 0.533% at 105.68 .

The greenback's turnaround followed a steady drumbeat from Fed officials who made clear they would continue to tighten. San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly said on Thursday she was open to the possibility of another 75 basis point hike in September. read more

"The Fed is going to be inclined to push back against the notion of a premature policy pivot," said Manimbo. "That would threaten to unravel all of the hard work they've done to bring down inflation."

Traders were pricing in around a 36.5% chance of a 75 bps Fed rate hike in September and a 63.5% chance of 50 bps.

The dollar was up 0.4% against Japan's currency, with the greenback at 133.51 yen .

Kit Juckes, head of FX strategy at Societe Generale, said dollar trading was likely to remain "choppy".

"It's not going to be going significantly weaker in a straight line because there’s still a danger than the market has to reprice terminal Fed funds higher, given there’s still plenty of inflation," Juckes said.

The British pound fell 0.745 to $1.2124 versus the dollar. Data showed UK GDP contracted by less than forecast in June, even though an extra public holiday had been expected to cause a big drag. read more

The euro was down 0.54% at $1.0262 . French inflation was up 6.8% year-on-year in July, while for Spain it was 10.8%, the highest since 1984, data showed.

The euro has been weighed down by Europe's struggles with the war in Ukraine, the hunt for non-Russian energy sources and a hit to the German economy from scant rainfall. read more

Commerzbank said in a note it had revised its euro-dollar forecast lower, as it expects a euro-area recession as a base scenario, having previously been a "risk scenario".

The bank said it expects the euro to fall to $0.98 in December and to not recover until later in 2023.

The New Zealand dollar was lifted by expectations of a Reserve Bank of New Zealand rate rise next week.

Reporting by John McCrank in New York; additional reporting by Elizabeth Howcroft in London; Editing by Mark Potter, David Holmes and Alexander Smith

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Gold will play a big role in the coming global 'monetary reset' as U.S dollar loses its dominance – Maxime BernierCornelius Christian Cornelius Christian

A global monetary reset is inevitable, as fiat currencies are being debased due to excessive money printing.The U.S. dollar will be dethroned as the dominant global reserve currency by currencies backed by a basket of commodities including gold, according to Maxime Bernier, Founder and Leader of The People's Party of Canada.

"A commodity-backed money system will happen," he stated. "I don't know when, but a fiat money system cannot live too long. And after many decades, with all this debt and money printing across America and Canada and Europe, it will have to end."

"We need to tell central bankers to have an inflation target of zero," he said. "After that, I believe we need to have a monetary reset internationally, having money that will be based on gold or other commodities, like we had in the 19th Century," said Bernier.

Bernier, a former minister from 2006 to 2015 under Prime Minister Stephen Harper, said that excess money printing and rising federal debt burdens had led to high inflation in Canada. Canada's inflation rate stands at 8.1 percent in June.

"We have inflation because of bad monetary policy," he explained. "We need to balance the budget. We need to stop spending money we don't have."

Bernier served as Minister of State (Small Business, Tourism, and Agriculture), Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Minister of Industry under PM Harper. In 2018, after losing the Conservative Party of Canada's leadership race, he left to start the People's Party.

Bernier spoke with Michelle Makori, Editor-in-Chief and Lead Anchor at Kitco News.

Inflation and Monetary Policy

 

Inflation is a tax, said Bernier, which transfers resources from the working population to the government.

"Now we have inflation in Canada at 8.1 percent, and inflation is a tax," he said. "The average income increase in Canada for this year will be around 5 percent. So every Canadian will be poorer by 3 percent. So we have a new 3 percent tax."

He was critical of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's spending during COVID-19 lockdowns, saying that "The Bank of Canada was the ATM machine for the federal government," and that now Canadians are paying for this through higher prices.

Since 2010, Bernier has argued in favor of commodity-backed currency systems like the classical gold standard, which the U.S. and Canada adopted in the 19th Century.

"You can see a trend toward de-dollarization right now, with Russia and China and India," he said, referring to BRICS countries' plans to launch a new global reserve currency. "They're looking to have a new currency based on commodities, and maybe on gold… I'm more of a traditional guy, believing in a kind of gold standard that we had in the 19th Century."

The U.S. economy could 'collapse' following a debt crisis; Bitcoin and crypto may help rebuild afterwards – Max Borders

CBDCs

In March, Bernier tweeted his opposition to central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), fiat digital tokens issued and controlled by central banks, which would serve as a form of money.

"There's no way we can trust central bank digital currencies after the seizure of truckers' accounts and Russia's reserves," Tweeted Maxime, referring to the Canadian government's seizure of bank accounts during the anti-mandate Freedom Convoy protests, and Canada's confiscation of Russian assets due to the Ukraine conflict. "[CBDCs] will be used by governments to crack down on dissidents and implement a social credit system as in China."

Canada is currently developing a CBDC, and the United States is researching the concept.

"A central bank digital currency will be a way for the government to control everything that you're doing," Bernier told Makori. "It would be another way to control all our spending and bank accounts. It's another way to be in a totalitarian country. We don't want that and we don't need it."

Bernier pointed to the fact that debit cards and e-transfers already accomplish many of the purported goals of CBDCs.

He emphasized that a "quiet, peaceful revolution" would be needed to thwart the imposition of CBDCs.

"If they are imposing a central bank digital currency, I believe the people will wake up, and I hope they won't be able to do it," he said. "We must inform the population about that, and as a political party, [The People's Party of Canada] that's what we are doing."

To find out Bernier's thoughts on investing in gold and Bitcoin, watch the above video.

By Cornelius Christian

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

 

David

Traders buy the dip all week reinforcing support for gold futures at $1800

On Monday, August 8 gold futures opened at $1790 and by the close of trading had broken and closed above its 50-day moving average and closed at $1805 per ounce. Throughout the remainder of the week, December gold futures closed above $1800 on a daily chart. That being said, on Tuesday, Thursday and today December gold briefly traded to an intraday low between $1798 and $1799 prompting traders to buy the dip and move gold back

The chart above is a 480-minute candlestick chart of gold futures which shows that in six instances market participants witnessed gold briefly break below $1800 and on each occasion recovered and closed above that key psychological price point. Both the daily and intraday charts demonstrate traders' resolve to buy gold futures on each occasion that they perceived gold had become oversold below $1800.

December gold closed the week near its weekly high of $1824.70 resulting in the fourth consecutive week of gains. Over the last four weeks, gold has traded from a low of $1680 which occurred during the week of July 18, and gained approximately $137 or 7.53% in just four weeks of trading.

As of 5;05 PM, EDT gold futures are fixed at $1818.90 resulting from a net gain of $11.70 or 0.65%. Spot gold also finished solidly higher on the week taking physical gold just above $1800 per ounce for the first time since the beginning of July. Today’s respectable gains occurred despite dollar strength. The dollar gained 0.54% in trading today taking the dollar index to 105.565.

The screen-print above of the KGX (Kitco Gold Index) was taken at 4:29 PM EDT and fixed spot gold at $1801.40 per ounce. This is the first-time spot gold has closed above $1800 per ounce since the week of June 27. Today spot gold closed up by $11.40. However, the real gain minus dollar strength was $21.20 because dollar strength took away $9.80.

There remains genuine concern that the Federal Reserve has interest raised rates over the last four consecutive FOMC meetings. Also, the most recent data revealed a decline in the Consumer Price Index from 9.1% in June to 8.5% in July. In light of a hawkish Fed and a slight decline in inflation the fact that gold futures gained over 7% in four weeks clearly illustrates that market participants continue to be laser-focused on inflation rather than rising rates.

By Gary Wagner

Contributing to kitco.com

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David

Gold, silver lower amid better risk appetite, rising bond yields

Gold and silver prices are moderately down in midday U.S. trading Thursday, on some pressure from an uptick in trader and investors risk appetite late this week following some U.S. inflation data that was a bit tamer than expected. Rising U.S. Treasury bond yields today are also a negative for the metals. October gold futures were last down $9.10 at $1,794.10. September Comex silver futures were last down $0.437 at $20.30 an ounce.

Today’s U.S. producer price index report for July came in down 0.5%, compared to forecasts of up 0.2% from June and compares to the June PPI report’s rise of 1.1% from May. Year-on-year the July PPI was up 9.8%, which is still hot. On Wednesday the U.S. consumer price index report for July that came in unchanged from June and up 8.5% year-on-year. This week’s U.S. inflation data is prompting some early speculation in the marketplace that inflationary pressures may have peaked and will trend down in the coming months. That has likely somewhat boosted U.S. consumer confidence and boosted the U.S. stock market. Global stock markets were mostly flat overnight. U.S. stock indexes are firmer at midday.

A Worse Financial Crisis than 2008? Peter Schiff forecasts sustained and higher inflation, followed by an implosion of the U.S. dollar

The key outside markets today see Nymex crude oil prices solidly up and trading around $94.50 a barrel. The U.S. dollar index is weaker in midday U.S. trading. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is fetching around 2.8%.

Technically, October gold futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a fledgling price uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $1,850.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $1,750.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,804.30 and then at this week’s high of 1,814.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,788.50 and then at this week’s low of $1,776.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

September silver futures bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices are in a fledgling uptrend on the daily bar chart. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $22.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $19.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $20.83 and then at $21.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of $20.19 and then at $20.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

September N.Y. copper closed up 515 points at 370.10 cents today. Prices closed near the session high and hit a five-week high today. The copper bulls and bears are on a level overall near-term technical playing field. Prices are trending up on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 340.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 375.00 cents and then at 380.00 cents. First support is seen at 360.00 cents and then at this week’s low of 353.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

By Jim Wyckoff

For Kitco News

Time to buy Gold and Silver on the dips

David